Was discussing the talent level on this team with my buddy after the Wagner game and we differed a bit on the younger guys. The disagreement was basically me saying that while obviously Wagner isn't a great measuring stick, I thought the young guys like howard, Taj and Nykeim showed me something on offense and I like the way Trill and Cisco seem to make plays as raw but talented-looking kids at DB. His stance was that there's still not much that jumps off the page in the way of talent.
Anyway, the discussion got me thinking about this program's precipitous decline since the '01 season. We all know talent plays a part -- maybe the largest part -- in the struggles but while a lot of people point to recruiting classes, I feel the NFL draft is a better barometer of where your program stands talent-wise. It's not perfect (you can have really, really good players who aren't NFL guys) but at least it's based on what we've seen on the actual field as opposed to a sort of arbitrary star system.
So we all know we've been miserable lately in this department but in looking at it, I thought there are some interesting trends beyond simply -- we've not been real talented lately. A couple observations:
The program's decline has really seen two phases (hopefully we've hit bottom and are on our way back up)
Our talent at the end of the P era and through the GERG, Marrone and Shafer eras wasn't what it was in the late 80s through Freeney's senior season in 01. We saw it reflected in the record and in recruiting battles (losing kids we often won like D'brickashaw Ferguson, Josh Beekman, a ton of kids from the Island in general, getting almost entirely shut out of NJ, etc.).
But the issue wasn't really as much that we had no NFL talent -- We had multiple players selected in each draft from 07-14 (except for an empty draft in 08) and had four players taken in 06 and three players taken in 04. The issue was more that we couldn't seem to find much difference-making talent, particularly at the skilled positions. So Chandler Jones and Justin Pugh were first-rounders and huge recruits for us, but from 03 to 14, we had just five players taken in the first three rounds. None were offensive skilled position guys.
So that 03-14 era was the first drop -- kind of a gradual talent drain where you saw fewer and fewer offensive difference-makers (even the guys who did get drafted weren't always overly productive in college -- Morant had a good senior season but three empty seasons before that, I forgot we had a running back named Chris Davis, Fiametta was a stud athlete but injured a lot and not terribly productive ...)
But the second era is the 15-18 run (that may be extended to 19 depending of whether or not a kid like Custis might get drafted). In this stretch we've had two players drafted ... both in the second round ... and one was a punter (which is cool for Riley Dixon, don't get me wrong). I mean, a decent MAC team should have a kid drafted somewhere most years. That is an amazingly bad stretch and probably speaks to coaching turnover and some of Shafer's issues not only recruiting (where I thought he was OK)
but in terms of running a well-rounded program, particularly from an S&C standpoint. Regardless, to me that's a whole different era than the previous 11 or 12 years.
Marrone's era is an interesting what-if
I am not one of those guys who is still angry (or ever was angry) that Marrone skipped town. This is a tough job and he got an NFL offer. That is an absolute no-brainer in my book, but whatever. What's interesting is that Marrone is here from 09-12, meaning his players would have started getting drafted (potentially) in the 12 draft (if they left early). Correct me if I'm wrong, but Jones and Nassib were technically GERG recruits (I'll still give Marrone credit for developing those guys so relax if you're going to get fired up) and I want to say that Pugh was a GERG commit that stayed committed with Marrone. Again, correct me if I'm wrong ...
BUT technically the number of guys Marrone recruited who eventually got drafted was about four or five -- Spruill, Bromley, Shamarko (definite yeses) and Tiller. is that the list? Now, don't get me wrong. I think Marrone did a pretty nice job here, but DM made no secret that he hated recruiting and I just sort of wonder how it would have played out had he stayed. Not saying it would have been worse, but it's hard to feel like he did Shaf many favors.
Where is that bump from being a P5 school again?
We played our first season in the ACC in 2013 meaning the kids who signed in Feb 2013 knew we were headed there (maybe 2012 as well). Yet we've had just two players selected in the last four drafts -- 7th round and one was a punter -- and we could get shut out again this year.
Now I'm not going to make the crazy leap to say it was a bad idea to move. We had to do it and one look at UConn or other programs left out of expansion obviously shows that wouldn't have been a great fate either. But the odd spot we're in is that we're now one of the worst programs among the 'haves' which means we have to recruit against either better programs or try to sell kids on the value of the ACC (as opposed to the MAC or AAC) but we really don't have any proof we can really compete in this conference (we're 24-39 since moving over, including the two wins this season). Add that to the weather and facilities situations and the bland gameday ... it's a tough road.
Why the 2019 and 2020 drafts will be really interesting
So there is debate -- as there always is -- about whether Dino is a great recruiter and we need to trust the staff vs. the crew that can't figure out why we can't recruit better. I'm in the camp of believing that recruiting is only half the battle -- you need to develop kids.
But at the end of the day we need to start sending players to the NFL again. Babers is in Year 3 meaning his first class (though it's not a full class) comes through in 2020. But he's got some players he's coached for three years that are seniors and some others he's brought into the program from the outside. It will be really interesting (and a great sign, I would say) if we can start sending some kids to the NFL. Pierce/Roberts/Martin/Dungey/Custis -- any of those guys get drafted? In 2020 you've got Frederick, Foster, hoftrichter, and a bunch of DL. Would be great to see a couple draftees the next couple years. I'd have to think that would help recruiting.
Anyway, the discussion got me thinking about this program's precipitous decline since the '01 season. We all know talent plays a part -- maybe the largest part -- in the struggles but while a lot of people point to recruiting classes, I feel the NFL draft is a better barometer of where your program stands talent-wise. It's not perfect (you can have really, really good players who aren't NFL guys) but at least it's based on what we've seen on the actual field as opposed to a sort of arbitrary star system.
So we all know we've been miserable lately in this department but in looking at it, I thought there are some interesting trends beyond simply -- we've not been real talented lately. A couple observations:
The program's decline has really seen two phases (hopefully we've hit bottom and are on our way back up)
Our talent at the end of the P era and through the GERG, Marrone and Shafer eras wasn't what it was in the late 80s through Freeney's senior season in 01. We saw it reflected in the record and in recruiting battles (losing kids we often won like D'brickashaw Ferguson, Josh Beekman, a ton of kids from the Island in general, getting almost entirely shut out of NJ, etc.).
But the issue wasn't really as much that we had no NFL talent -- We had multiple players selected in each draft from 07-14 (except for an empty draft in 08) and had four players taken in 06 and three players taken in 04. The issue was more that we couldn't seem to find much difference-making talent, particularly at the skilled positions. So Chandler Jones and Justin Pugh were first-rounders and huge recruits for us, but from 03 to 14, we had just five players taken in the first three rounds. None were offensive skilled position guys.
So that 03-14 era was the first drop -- kind of a gradual talent drain where you saw fewer and fewer offensive difference-makers (even the guys who did get drafted weren't always overly productive in college -- Morant had a good senior season but three empty seasons before that, I forgot we had a running back named Chris Davis, Fiametta was a stud athlete but injured a lot and not terribly productive ...)
But the second era is the 15-18 run (that may be extended to 19 depending of whether or not a kid like Custis might get drafted). In this stretch we've had two players drafted ... both in the second round ... and one was a punter (which is cool for Riley Dixon, don't get me wrong). I mean, a decent MAC team should have a kid drafted somewhere most years. That is an amazingly bad stretch and probably speaks to coaching turnover and some of Shafer's issues not only recruiting (where I thought he was OK)
but in terms of running a well-rounded program, particularly from an S&C standpoint. Regardless, to me that's a whole different era than the previous 11 or 12 years.
Marrone's era is an interesting what-if
I am not one of those guys who is still angry (or ever was angry) that Marrone skipped town. This is a tough job and he got an NFL offer. That is an absolute no-brainer in my book, but whatever. What's interesting is that Marrone is here from 09-12, meaning his players would have started getting drafted (potentially) in the 12 draft (if they left early). Correct me if I'm wrong, but Jones and Nassib were technically GERG recruits (I'll still give Marrone credit for developing those guys so relax if you're going to get fired up) and I want to say that Pugh was a GERG commit that stayed committed with Marrone. Again, correct me if I'm wrong ...
BUT technically the number of guys Marrone recruited who eventually got drafted was about four or five -- Spruill, Bromley, Shamarko (definite yeses) and Tiller. is that the list? Now, don't get me wrong. I think Marrone did a pretty nice job here, but DM made no secret that he hated recruiting and I just sort of wonder how it would have played out had he stayed. Not saying it would have been worse, but it's hard to feel like he did Shaf many favors.
Where is that bump from being a P5 school again?
We played our first season in the ACC in 2013 meaning the kids who signed in Feb 2013 knew we were headed there (maybe 2012 as well). Yet we've had just two players selected in the last four drafts -- 7th round and one was a punter -- and we could get shut out again this year.
Now I'm not going to make the crazy leap to say it was a bad idea to move. We had to do it and one look at UConn or other programs left out of expansion obviously shows that wouldn't have been a great fate either. But the odd spot we're in is that we're now one of the worst programs among the 'haves' which means we have to recruit against either better programs or try to sell kids on the value of the ACC (as opposed to the MAC or AAC) but we really don't have any proof we can really compete in this conference (we're 24-39 since moving over, including the two wins this season). Add that to the weather and facilities situations and the bland gameday ... it's a tough road.
Why the 2019 and 2020 drafts will be really interesting
So there is debate -- as there always is -- about whether Dino is a great recruiter and we need to trust the staff vs. the crew that can't figure out why we can't recruit better. I'm in the camp of believing that recruiting is only half the battle -- you need to develop kids.
But at the end of the day we need to start sending players to the NFL again. Babers is in Year 3 meaning his first class (though it's not a full class) comes through in 2020. But he's got some players he's coached for three years that are seniors and some others he's brought into the program from the outside. It will be really interesting (and a great sign, I would say) if we can start sending some kids to the NFL. Pierce/Roberts/Martin/Dungey/Custis -- any of those guys get drafted? In 2020 you've got Frederick, Foster, hoftrichter, and a bunch of DL. Would be great to see a couple draftees the next couple years. I'd have to think that would help recruiting.
