Quazzum69
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I'm sure some most of you are familiar with the Ratings Percentage Index, or the RPI. Over the next few weeks leading up to the NCAA Tournament, I will periodically write about some very peculiar features of the RPI and how it affects Syracuse. I am no Joe Lunardi (he's an expert, right?), but just a curious investigator looking for some discussion.
I've calculated the weighted win percentage portion of the RPI (accounts for 1/4 of the RPI) for all possible outcomes of the remaining nine conference games. There are 20 (or 4 x 5) possible outcomes for each combination of home wins and losses. Keep in mind that which teams we beat has no effect on the RPI - it's just how many wins or losses.
If Syracuse were to go 3-1 in home games but 0-5 in away games, their weighted win percentage (which is 1/4 of the RPI, remember) would be 0.825. Now, if we were to go a very impressive 5-0 in away games but a pathetic 0-4 in home games, the RPI would be 0.823! Similarly, going 5-0 away and 2-2 at home would produce 0.907 but going 3-2 away and 3-1 at home would produce 0.906.
You can already start to see how teams/conferences can quite easily maximize the RPI via scheduling. If we go 2-3 on the road (likely wins @ FSU and MD; toss-up games at Pitt, Duke and Virginia) and go 4-0 at home (all gimmes, IMO), it will be equivalent to going 3-1 at home and 4-1 on the road.
It is astonishing that only losing to Clemson at home and Duke away would equivalent to if we win all home games but lose to Florida State, Maryland and Pitt away.
Clearly, it is much more important to win at home than to win on the road (or lose on the road than lose at home, if you prefer) so it is better to have easy home games and hard road games. Having the weaker teams at home and harder teams away would produce a higher expected RPI, I believe. This seems odd, doesn't it?
Anyways, people should stop worrying about the road games and its effect on our seeding. As long as we take care of business at home, we'll be fine.
I've calculated the weighted win percentage portion of the RPI (accounts for 1/4 of the RPI) for all possible outcomes of the remaining nine conference games. There are 20 (or 4 x 5) possible outcomes for each combination of home wins and losses. Keep in mind that which teams we beat has no effect on the RPI - it's just how many wins or losses.
If Syracuse were to go 3-1 in home games but 0-5 in away games, their weighted win percentage (which is 1/4 of the RPI, remember) would be 0.825. Now, if we were to go a very impressive 5-0 in away games but a pathetic 0-4 in home games, the RPI would be 0.823! Similarly, going 5-0 away and 2-2 at home would produce 0.907 but going 3-2 away and 3-1 at home would produce 0.906.
You can already start to see how teams/conferences can quite easily maximize the RPI via scheduling. If we go 2-3 on the road (likely wins @ FSU and MD; toss-up games at Pitt, Duke and Virginia) and go 4-0 at home (all gimmes, IMO), it will be equivalent to going 3-1 at home and 4-1 on the road.
It is astonishing that only losing to Clemson at home and Duke away would equivalent to if we win all home games but lose to Florida State, Maryland and Pitt away.
Clearly, it is much more important to win at home than to win on the road (or lose on the road than lose at home, if you prefer) so it is better to have easy home games and hard road games. Having the weaker teams at home and harder teams away would produce a higher expected RPI, I believe. This seems odd, doesn't it?
Anyways, people should stop worrying about the road games and its effect on our seeding. As long as we take care of business at home, we'll be fine.