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Who is Villanova?
Turn back the clock five years. I remember looking at the rosters, recruits, and coaches of every Big East teams and thinking that Syracuse and Villanova were set up to dominate. Syracuse was able to live up to expectations, but for some reason Villanova did not. I would have loved to be a fly on Villanova's wall just to see where things went wrong for them. Usually when the coaching is good and the recruiting is good the win/loss record is good, but Villanova somehow managed a mediocre record despite good recruiting and good coaching. Whatever was holding them back seems to have resolved itself. Villanova is undefeated and ranked 8th in the country. Even more importantly, their schedule offers few tests (Syracuse is the last top 25 team they face) so a gaudy record all but assured. Villanova's staples are pressure defense and predilection towards recruiting players between 6'2-6'6.
How will Villanova attack Syracuse?
Expect lots of three point shots. Last year Villanova took 23 and 27 three point shots in their two games against Syracuse. This year, Villanova is averaging just under 27 three point shots a game. To put this in perspective, you have to go all the way back to Syracuse's November 16th game against Colgate to find a team that shot over 22 threes.
Expect Villanova to push the tempo. They play fast and score 82.5 points per game on average. Against Syracuse there is a great incentive to get your shot off before the zone sets up, so I expect them to push the ball after every missed shot and turnover.
Expect lots of skilled guards. All but 3.7 of Villanova's 82.5 points per game come from players between 6'2 and 6'7. They are going to have three or four shooters spreading the floor at all times. JayVaughn Pinkston (a 6'7 forward who can shoot, pass or drive to the basket ) is going to set up in the middle of the zone and make plays. When its not him, its going to be James Bell who is 6'6 and not the burly physical presence that Pinkston is, but a guy who will compensate by being quicker and more skilled.
Expect to see abnormal amounts of room for Villanova to operate inside the Syracuse zone. They are going to spread the floor with guards who can shoot, pass, and drive to the basket. This is going to create passing lanes and rebounding opportunities that don't usually exist. Pinkston is more skilled than most players who operate in the middle of SU's zone, and he is going to have more room to operate than most. Bad combination.
Expect to see Villanova score some points. They won't shoot or score as efficiently as Baylor did, but SU will not be able to shut them down the way they shut Indiana down either, and unlike Baylor, Villanova will protect the ball.
How will Syracuse attack Villanova?
I am a big fan of Syracuse's 2-3 zone defense, so you might be surprised to hear that I am also a big fan of Villanova's press. On the surface they seem as different as defenses can be, but philosophically they serve the same function, to limit mismatches. All offenses use ball screens regularly, so the challenge for any defense becomes dealing with the chaos that ball screens create. Syracuse makes its players fight through ball screens, but, with the protection of a back line of long athletes perfectly positioned to help if need be. Villanova's answer is to switch on every screen, but switch among strong guards capable of covering multiple positions. Screen Villanova and you will only accomplish trading one strong 6'2-6'6 defender for another. Its difficult if not impossible to find a mismatch against either defense.
Penetration is necessary to break down Villanova's defense, but as I explained ball screens are not much help, so you want to have someone who can beat his man off the dribble one on one. Syracuse has two, Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant. I expect both to use theses skills repeatedly.
James Bell will spend a lot of time guarding Fair. He is shorter, but quicker, and will get in Fair's pocket and stay there. Just the kind of player that has given Fair problems in the past. In the off season Fair worked on creating offense off the dribble. He is going to have to put it to use in this game.
So long as Ennis, Grant, and Fair are up to the challenge, Syracuse will be able to score against Villanova's tough defense.
Key's to the Game:
Ennis finishing around the basket. It has been one of his few inconsistencies thus far, and in this game we can take it as a given that Villanova is going to pressure him, and he is going to penetrate. His ability to put the ball in the hoop once he gets there may decide the game.
Getting back in transition. Villanova is quicker than Syracuse and runs more than Syracuse. The ability to get back in transition is historically not a problem Syracuse suffers from, but this is a relatively slow Syracuse team that can be hurt in transition by the likes of Villanova and North Carolina. As always the best way to defend transition offense is to score on offense and limit turnovers.
Grant's health and free throw shooting. Grant scored 12 points against Villanova last year as a little used freshman fill-in. His skill set can cause them problems. If he can drive to the basket and absorb the hits they put on him, then he will get plenty of chances from the line.
Villanova's three point shooting. They take a lot of threes, but don't necessarily hit a high percentage of them. If they are hot from deep, Syracuse is in for a long day.
Predictions:
Villanova easily wins the rebounding battle. Last season Villanova out rebounded Syracuse by 8 and 13 in the two games they played. Because Villanova is small people assume they can't rebound, but this is not the case, and in fact they are historically a very good rebounding team who spreads defenses out then uses their speed to get to long rebounds.
Cooney's ball handling will become more important than his shooting. At some point in the game (if not from the beginning) Villanova is going to realize that Ennis's ball handling can hurt them and set up their press to keep the ball away from him (Minnesota did this). It will be up to Cooney handle the ball in this situation and get Syracuse into its offense. Like against Minnesota, he will handle this well.
Daniel Ochefu, Villanova's lone big man, will put up better than average numbers. He's not a stat stuffer, averaging just under 4 points per game, but against Syracuse he should be able to get open down low a few times. Don't be surprised if he puts up a double double.
Good guard play overcomes good defense, and there are few turnovers in this game despite both teams being very good at forcing turnovers.
The game is close, with a lot of good offense on both sides.
Turn back the clock five years. I remember looking at the rosters, recruits, and coaches of every Big East teams and thinking that Syracuse and Villanova were set up to dominate. Syracuse was able to live up to expectations, but for some reason Villanova did not. I would have loved to be a fly on Villanova's wall just to see where things went wrong for them. Usually when the coaching is good and the recruiting is good the win/loss record is good, but Villanova somehow managed a mediocre record despite good recruiting and good coaching. Whatever was holding them back seems to have resolved itself. Villanova is undefeated and ranked 8th in the country. Even more importantly, their schedule offers few tests (Syracuse is the last top 25 team they face) so a gaudy record all but assured. Villanova's staples are pressure defense and predilection towards recruiting players between 6'2-6'6.
How will Villanova attack Syracuse?
Expect lots of three point shots. Last year Villanova took 23 and 27 three point shots in their two games against Syracuse. This year, Villanova is averaging just under 27 three point shots a game. To put this in perspective, you have to go all the way back to Syracuse's November 16th game against Colgate to find a team that shot over 22 threes.
Expect Villanova to push the tempo. They play fast and score 82.5 points per game on average. Against Syracuse there is a great incentive to get your shot off before the zone sets up, so I expect them to push the ball after every missed shot and turnover.
Expect lots of skilled guards. All but 3.7 of Villanova's 82.5 points per game come from players between 6'2 and 6'7. They are going to have three or four shooters spreading the floor at all times. JayVaughn Pinkston (a 6'7 forward who can shoot, pass or drive to the basket ) is going to set up in the middle of the zone and make plays. When its not him, its going to be James Bell who is 6'6 and not the burly physical presence that Pinkston is, but a guy who will compensate by being quicker and more skilled.
Expect to see abnormal amounts of room for Villanova to operate inside the Syracuse zone. They are going to spread the floor with guards who can shoot, pass, and drive to the basket. This is going to create passing lanes and rebounding opportunities that don't usually exist. Pinkston is more skilled than most players who operate in the middle of SU's zone, and he is going to have more room to operate than most. Bad combination.
Expect to see Villanova score some points. They won't shoot or score as efficiently as Baylor did, but SU will not be able to shut them down the way they shut Indiana down either, and unlike Baylor, Villanova will protect the ball.
How will Syracuse attack Villanova?
I am a big fan of Syracuse's 2-3 zone defense, so you might be surprised to hear that I am also a big fan of Villanova's press. On the surface they seem as different as defenses can be, but philosophically they serve the same function, to limit mismatches. All offenses use ball screens regularly, so the challenge for any defense becomes dealing with the chaos that ball screens create. Syracuse makes its players fight through ball screens, but, with the protection of a back line of long athletes perfectly positioned to help if need be. Villanova's answer is to switch on every screen, but switch among strong guards capable of covering multiple positions. Screen Villanova and you will only accomplish trading one strong 6'2-6'6 defender for another. Its difficult if not impossible to find a mismatch against either defense.
Penetration is necessary to break down Villanova's defense, but as I explained ball screens are not much help, so you want to have someone who can beat his man off the dribble one on one. Syracuse has two, Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant. I expect both to use theses skills repeatedly.
James Bell will spend a lot of time guarding Fair. He is shorter, but quicker, and will get in Fair's pocket and stay there. Just the kind of player that has given Fair problems in the past. In the off season Fair worked on creating offense off the dribble. He is going to have to put it to use in this game.
So long as Ennis, Grant, and Fair are up to the challenge, Syracuse will be able to score against Villanova's tough defense.
Key's to the Game:
Ennis finishing around the basket. It has been one of his few inconsistencies thus far, and in this game we can take it as a given that Villanova is going to pressure him, and he is going to penetrate. His ability to put the ball in the hoop once he gets there may decide the game.
Getting back in transition. Villanova is quicker than Syracuse and runs more than Syracuse. The ability to get back in transition is historically not a problem Syracuse suffers from, but this is a relatively slow Syracuse team that can be hurt in transition by the likes of Villanova and North Carolina. As always the best way to defend transition offense is to score on offense and limit turnovers.
Grant's health and free throw shooting. Grant scored 12 points against Villanova last year as a little used freshman fill-in. His skill set can cause them problems. If he can drive to the basket and absorb the hits they put on him, then he will get plenty of chances from the line.
Villanova's three point shooting. They take a lot of threes, but don't necessarily hit a high percentage of them. If they are hot from deep, Syracuse is in for a long day.
Predictions:
Villanova easily wins the rebounding battle. Last season Villanova out rebounded Syracuse by 8 and 13 in the two games they played. Because Villanova is small people assume they can't rebound, but this is not the case, and in fact they are historically a very good rebounding team who spreads defenses out then uses their speed to get to long rebounds.
Cooney's ball handling will become more important than his shooting. At some point in the game (if not from the beginning) Villanova is going to realize that Ennis's ball handling can hurt them and set up their press to keep the ball away from him (Minnesota did this). It will be up to Cooney handle the ball in this situation and get Syracuse into its offense. Like against Minnesota, he will handle this well.
Daniel Ochefu, Villanova's lone big man, will put up better than average numbers. He's not a stat stuffer, averaging just under 4 points per game, but against Syracuse he should be able to get open down low a few times. Don't be surprised if he puts up a double double.
Good guard play overcomes good defense, and there are few turnovers in this game despite both teams being very good at forcing turnovers.
The game is close, with a lot of good offense on both sides.
