Profiles of a Champion (w/observations)

[Henny & Coke]

Let's take a look at the rosters of the past 6 NCAA Tournament Championship teams and see if we can make some observations / draw some conclusions about what a "championship team" looks like...

THE TEAMS:

2017-2018: Villanova (36-4)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Jalen Brunson (JR) - 18.9 PPG
G - Mikai Bridges (JR) - 17.7 PPG
G - Donte Divincenzo (SO) - 13.4 PPG
F - Omari Spellman (FR) - 10.9 PPG
F - Eric Paschall (JR) - 10.6 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 1.6

2016-2017: UNC (33-7)

Top 5 scorers:
F - Justin Jackson (JR) - 18.3 PPG
G - Joel Berry (JR) - 14.7 PPG
F - Kennedy Meeks (SR) - 12.5 PPG
F - Isaiah Hicks (SR) - 11.8 PPG
F - Tony Bradley (FR) - 7.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.9

2015-2016: Villanova (35-5)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Josh Hart (JR) - 15.5 PPG
F - Kris Jenkins (JR) - 13.6 PPG
G - Ryan Arcdiancono (SR) - 12.5 PPG
F - Daniel Ochefu (SR) - 10.0 PPG
G - Jalen Brunson (FR) - 9.6 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.7

2014-2015: Duke (35-4)

Top 5 scorers:
C - Jahlil Okafor (FR) - 17.3 PPG
G - Quinn Cook (SR) - 15.3 PPG
F - Justise Winslow (FR) - 12.6 PPG
G - Tyus Jones (FR) - 11.8 PPG
F - Amile Jefferson (JR) - 6.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 1.1

2013-2014: UCONN (32-8)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Shabazz Napier (SR) - 18.0 PPG
F - DeAndre Daniels (JR) - 13.1 PPG
G - Ryan Boatright (JR) - 12.1 PPG
G - Niels Giffey (SR) - 8.4 PPG
G - Lasan Kromah (SR) - 6.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 2.0

2012-2013: Louisville (35-5)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Russ Smith (JR) - 18.7 PPG
G - Peyton Siva (SR) - 10.0 PPG
F - Chane Behanan (SO) - 9.8 PPG
C - Gorgui Dieng (JR) - 9.8 PPG
F - Luke Hancock (JR) - 8.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.7

OBSERVATIONS / CONCLUSIONS:

1.) Leading scorer on a championship team:
F - Jalen Brunson (JR) - 18.9 PPG
F - Justin Jackson (JR) - 18.3 PPG
G - Josh Hart (JR) - 15.5 PPG
C - Jahlil Okafor (FR) - 17.3 PPG
G - Shabazz Napier (SR) - 18.0 PPG
G - Russ Smith (JR) - 18.7 PPG

Observations:
3 Guards, 2 Forwards, 1 Center
1 SR, 4 JR, 0 SO, 1 FR
Between 15.5 PPG - 18.9 PPG

Conclusions:
In general...leading scorer is usually a JR Guard averaging around 18 PPG.

2.) Number of scorers averaging double digits:
6 players
4 players
4 players
4 players
3 players
2 players (* with 2 others at 9.8 PPG)

Conclusions:
In general...a championship team usually has around 4 scorers averaging double digits.

3.) Number of Upperclassmen (SRs & JRs) among top 5 scorers:
0 SR / 3 JR / 1 SO / 1 FR
2 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR
2 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR
1 SR / 1 JR / 0 SO / 3 FR
3 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 0 FR
1 SR / 3 JR / 1 SO / 0 FR

Observations:
Totals: 9 SR / 13 JR / 2 SO / 6 FR
Averages: 1.5 SR / 2.2 JR / 0.33 JR / 1.0 FR

Conclusions:
In general...a championship team's top 5 scorers include 3-4 SR/JRs & 1-2 SO/FR.

4.) Team leader in assists:
G - Jalen Brunson (JR)
G- Joel Berry (JR)
G - Ryan Archidiencano (SR)
G - Tyus Jones (FR)
G - Shabazz Napier (SR)
G - Peyton Siva (SR)

Observations:
3 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR or
5 SR/JR vs 1 SO/FR

Conclusions:
In general...team leader in assists will be an upperclassman (SR or JR) Guard.

5.) Tournament success prior to National Championship:
Villanova: Lost 2nd Round / Won NC / Lost 3rd Round
UNC: Lost Nat Final / Lost Reg Semi / Lost 3rd Round
Villanova: Lost 3rd Round / Lost 3rd Round / Lost 2nd Round
Duke: Lost 2nd Round / Lost Reg Final / Lost 2nd Round
UCONN: Didn't make tournament / Lost 2nd Round / Won NC
Louisville: Lost Nat Semi / Lost 2nd Round / Lost 1st Round

Observations:
5 of 6 teams had made NCAA Tournament in each of 3 years prior.
4 of 6 teams had made (at least) Sweet 16 in (at least) one of two years prior.
2 of 6 teams had made (at least) Final Four in the year prior.

Conclusions:
Recent success in Tournament helps? (Duh...Haha! Anyone else got a better conclusion?)

Now Part #2 should determine how the 2018-2019 Orange rank against some of these "conclusions" (my post is already too long & I'm afraid nobody's read this far haha)

 

[GooseMutt]

Damn Henny you’re a hard worker! Thank you this info and analysis. Enjoyed it

 

[Cheriehoop]

What first struck me in the stats was the diversified scoring. To win it appears everyone contributing is essential and not hero ball with a single dominant scorer.

 

[Henny & Coke]

What first struck me in the stats was the diversified scoring. To win it appears everyone contributing is essential and not hero ball with a single dominant scorer.

I agree, and was the impetus for my initial research into this. I wanted to see how evenly scoring load was distributed. Especially in light of how last years team was so lopsided (w/Battle, Howard & Brissett all averaging 14 PPG or more then big dropoff to Marek at ~6 PPG.)

In that regard I think it’s big to get contributions from Marek, Hughes, Chewy, Carey, etc to help balance the scoring load this year.

Need to get (at least) that 4th close-to-double digit scorer going. Don’t think it’s a coincidence that team really excelled when Marek started being that 4th scorer for us last year.

 

[JoeySimz]

Let's take a look at the rosters of the past 6 NCAA Tournament Championship teams and see if we can make some observations / draw some conclusions about what a "championship team" looks like...

THE TEAMS:

2017-2018: Villanova (36-4)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Jalen Brunson (JR) - 18.9 PPG
G - Mikai Bridges (JR) - 17.7 PPG
G - Donte Divincenzo (SO) - 13.4 PPG
F - Omari Spellman (FR) - 10.9 PPG
F - Eric Paschall (JR) - 10.6 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 1.6

2016-2017: UNC (33-7)

Top 5 scorers:
F - Justin Jackson (JR) - 18.3 PPG
G - Joel Berry (JR) - 14.7 PPG
F - Kennedy Meeks (SR) - 12.5 PPG
F - Isaiah Hicks (SR) - 11.8 PPG
F - Tony Bradley (FR) - 7.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.9

2015-2016: Villanova (35-5)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Josh Hart (JR) - 15.5 PPG
F - Kris Jenkins (JR) - 13.6 PPG
G - Ryan Arcdiancono (SR) - 12.5 PPG
F - Daniel Ochefu (SR) - 10.0 PPG
G - Jalen Brunson (FR) - 9.6 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.7

2014-2015: Duke (35-4)

Top 5 scorers:
C - Jahlil Okafor (FR) - 17.3 PPG
G - Quinn Cook (SR) - 15.3 PPG
F - Justise Winslow (FR) - 12.6 PPG
G - Tyus Jones (FR) - 11.8 PPG
F - Amile Jefferson (JR) - 6.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 1.1

2013-2014: UCONN (32-8)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Shabazz Napier (SR) - 18.0 PPG
F - DeAndre Daniels (JR) - 13.1 PPG
G - Ryan Boatright (JR) - 12.1 PPG
G - Niels Giffey (SR) - 8.4 PPG
G - Lasan Kromah (SR) - 6.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 2.0

2012-2013: Louisville (35-5)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Russ Smith (JR) - 18.7 PPG
G - Peyton Siva (SR) - 10.0 PPG
F - Chane Behanan (SO) - 9.8 PPG
C - Gorgui Dieng (JR) - 9.8 PPG
F - Luke Hancock (JR) - 8.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.7

OBSERVATIONS / CONCLUSIONS:

1.) Leading scorer on a championship team:
F - Jalen Brunson (JR) - 18.9 PPG
F - Justin Jackson (JR) - 18.3 PPG
G - Josh Hart (JR) - 15.5 PPG
C - Jahlil Okafor (FR) - 17.3 PPG
G - Shabazz Napier (SR) - 18.0 PPG
G - Russ Smith (JR) - 18.7 PPG

Observations:
3 Guards, 2 Forwards, 1 Center
1 SR, 4 JR, 0 SO, 1 FR
Between 15.5 PPG - 18.9 PPG

Conclusions:
In general...leading scorer is usually a JR Guard averaging around 18 PPG.

2.) Number of scorers averaging double digits:
6 players
4 players
4 players
4 players
3 players
2 players (* with 2 others at 9.8 PPG)

Conclusions:
In general...a championship team usually has around 4 scorers averaging double digits.

3.) Number of Upperclassmen (SRs & JRs) among top 5 scorers:
0 SR / 3 JR / 1 SO / 1 FR
2 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR
2 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR
1 SR / 1 JR / 0 SO / 3 FR
3 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 0 FR
1 SR / 3 JR / 1 SO / 0 FR

Observations:
Totals: 9 SR / 13 JR / 2 SO / 6 FR
Averages: 1.5 SR / 2.2 JR / 0.33 JR / 1.0 FR

Conclusions:
In general...a championship team's top 5 scorers include 3-4 SR/JRs & 1-2 SO/FR.

4.) Team leader in assists:
G - Jalen Brunson (JR)
G- Joel Berry (JR)
G - Ryan Archidiencano (SR)
G - Tyus Jones (FR)
G - Shabazz Napier (SR)
G - Peyton Siva (SR)

Observations:
3 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR or
5 SR/JR vs 1 SO/FR

Conclusions:
In general...team leader in assists will be an upperclassman (SR or JR) Guard.

5.) Tournament success prior to National Championship:
Villanova: Lost 2nd Round / Won NC / Lost 3rd Round
UNC: Lost Nat Final / Lost Reg Semi / Lost 3rd Round
Villanova: Lost 3rd Round / Lost 3rd Round / Lost 2nd Round
Duke: Lost 2nd Round / Lost Reg Final / Lost 2nd Round
UCONN: Didn't make tournament / Lost 2nd Round / Won NC
Louisville: Lost Nat Semi / Lost 2nd Round / Lost 1st Round

Observations:
5 of 6 teams had made NCAA Tournament in each of 3 years prior.
4 of 6 teams had made (at least) Sweet 16 in (at least) one of two years prior.
2 of 6 teams had made (at least) Final Four in the year prior.

Conclusions:
Recent success in Tournament helps? (Duh...Haha! Anyone else got a better conclusion?)

Now Part #2 should determine how the 2018-2019 Orange rank against some of these "conclusions" (my post is already too long & I'm afraid nobody's read this far haha)

Tremendous

 

[GooseMutt]

Well we have over a years experience and I think our avg height may be 6’7 if not tad higher. We should be better offensively. We have more bodies allowing us to play full bore. Best stamina will make for even better press.

We always come into the dance like a bull in a china shop destroying offensive sets and plans. We are hard to deal with period. We will be better and more obnoxiously inhibiting.

The question remains will this potentially stellar defense translate to getting transition game back like the old days. We are fast. We are athletic. If we execute transition game it’s gonna be fast scoring for us and slooooow scoring for them. Game changer

 

[Cheriehoop]

I was surprised that the average height was so low. Is quickness and speed vs power and height more of a factor? Or perhaps above average shooting has an impact on the average height for these champions? Nova with their 3 guard lineup is no surprise and even Louisville - but UNC, Duke’s average height was a surprise to me. Interesting info the OP collected.

 

[RF2044]

Henny & Coke, just a terrific overall post.

You don't get enough recognition on this forum for your insightful contributions to the discourse, IMO. Very thought-provoking read.

 

[Henny & Coke]

Henny & Coke, just a terrific overall post.

You don't get enough recognition on this forum for your insightful contributions to the discourse, IMO. Very thought-provoking read.

Thanks so much. The kind words are much appreciated, especially considering the respect I have for the person delivering them!

Glad to be able to add to the conversations here. Just a great place for discussing my favorite team.

And since I don’t have any “connections” to give inside info, just try to contribute where I can (usually data-driven analysis).

 

[SpringsCuse]

This is a very good start, but... how do you know that the same conclusions wouldn’t apply to teams that aren’t championship caliber? Mediocre teams might also have similar statistics. I think you really need to compare championship teams to average teams if you want to isolate the factors that lead to success.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

How are years of experience calculated? I can’t seem to back into your result

 

[Henny & Coke]

How are years of experience calculated? I can’t seem to back into your result

This is the site I used for all stats:

College Basketball Statistics and History | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Should be on each individual team page

 

[OrlandoCuse]

This is the site I used for all stats:

College Basketball Statistics and History | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Should be on each individual team page

Found it. It’s weighted based on minutes played

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Let's take a look at the rosters of the past 6 NCAA Tournament Championship teams and see if we can make some observations / draw some conclusions about what a "championship team" looks like...

THE TEAMS:

2017-2018: Villanova (36-4)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Jalen Brunson (JR) - 18.9 PPG
G - Mikai Bridges (JR) - 17.7 PPG
G - Donte Divincenzo (SO) - 13.4 PPG
F - Omari Spellman (FR) - 10.9 PPG
F - Eric Paschall (JR) - 10.6 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 1.6

2016-2017: UNC (33-7)

Top 5 scorers:
F - Justin Jackson (JR) - 18.3 PPG
G - Joel Berry (JR) - 14.7 PPG
F - Kennedy Meeks (SR) - 12.5 PPG
F - Isaiah Hicks (SR) - 11.8 PPG
F - Tony Bradley (FR) - 7.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.9

2015-2016: Villanova (35-5)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Josh Hart (JR) - 15.5 PPG
F - Kris Jenkins (JR) - 13.6 PPG
G - Ryan Arcdiancono (SR) - 12.5 PPG
F - Daniel Ochefu (SR) - 10.0 PPG
G - Jalen Brunson (FR) - 9.6 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.7

2014-2015: Duke (35-4)

Top 5 scorers:
C - Jahlil Okafor (FR) - 17.3 PPG
G - Quinn Cook (SR) - 15.3 PPG
F - Justise Winslow (FR) - 12.6 PPG
G - Tyus Jones (FR) - 11.8 PPG
F - Amile Jefferson (JR) - 6.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 1.1

2013-2014: UCONN (32-8)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Shabazz Napier (SR) - 18.0 PPG
F - DeAndre Daniels (JR) - 13.1 PPG
G - Ryan Boatright (JR) - 12.1 PPG
G - Niels Giffey (SR) - 8.4 PPG
G - Lasan Kromah (SR) - 6.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-6
Avg Years Experience: 2.0

2012-2013: Louisville (35-5)

Top 5 scorers:
G - Russ Smith (JR) - 18.7 PPG
G - Peyton Siva (SR) - 10.0 PPG
F - Chane Behanan (SO) - 9.8 PPG
C - Gorgui Dieng (JR) - 9.8 PPG
F - Luke Hancock (JR) - 8.1 PPG

Avg Height: 6-5
Avg Years Experience: 1.7

OBSERVATIONS / CONCLUSIONS:

1.) Leading scorer on a championship team:
F - Jalen Brunson (JR) - 18.9 PPG
F - Justin Jackson (JR) - 18.3 PPG
G - Josh Hart (JR) - 15.5 PPG
C - Jahlil Okafor (FR) - 17.3 PPG
G - Shabazz Napier (SR) - 18.0 PPG
G - Russ Smith (JR) - 18.7 PPG

Observations:
3 Guards, 2 Forwards, 1 Center
1 SR, 4 JR, 0 SO, 1 FR
Between 15.5 PPG - 18.9 PPG

Conclusions:
In general...leading scorer is usually a JR Guard averaging around 18 PPG.

2.) Number of scorers averaging double digits:
6 players
4 players
4 players
4 players
3 players
2 players (* with 2 others at 9.8 PPG)

Conclusions:
In general...a championship team usually has around 4 scorers averaging double digits.

3.) Number of Upperclassmen (SRs & JRs) among top 5 scorers:
0 SR / 3 JR / 1 SO / 1 FR
2 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR
2 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR
1 SR / 1 JR / 0 SO / 3 FR
3 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 0 FR
1 SR / 3 JR / 1 SO / 0 FR

Observations:
Totals: 9 SR / 13 JR / 2 SO / 6 FR
Averages: 1.5 SR / 2.2 JR / 0.33 JR / 1.0 FR

Conclusions:
In general...a championship team's top 5 scorers include 3-4 SR/JRs & 1-2 SO/FR.

4.) Team leader in assists:
G - Jalen Brunson (JR)
G- Joel Berry (JR)
G - Ryan Archidiencano (SR)
G - Tyus Jones (FR)
G - Shabazz Napier (SR)
G - Peyton Siva (SR)

Observations:
3 SR / 2 JR / 0 SO / 1 FR or
5 SR/JR vs 1 SO/FR

Conclusions:
In general...team leader in assists will be an upperclassman (SR or JR) Guard.

5.) Tournament success prior to National Championship:
Villanova: Lost 2nd Round / Won NC / Lost 3rd Round
UNC: Lost Nat Final / Lost Reg Semi / Lost 3rd Round
Villanova: Lost 3rd Round / Lost 3rd Round / Lost 2nd Round
Duke: Lost 2nd Round / Lost Reg Final / Lost 2nd Round
UCONN: Didn't make tournament / Lost 2nd Round / Won NC
Louisville: Lost Nat Semi / Lost 2nd Round / Lost 1st Round

Observations:
5 of 6 teams had made NCAA Tournament in each of 3 years prior.
4 of 6 teams had made (at least) Sweet 16 in (at least) one of two years prior.
2 of 6 teams had made (at least) Final Four in the year prior.

Conclusions:
Recent success in Tournament helps? (Duh...Haha! Anyone else got a better conclusion?)

Now Part #2 should determine how the 2018-2019 Orange rank against some of these "conclusions" (my post is already too long & I'm afraid nobody's read this far haha)

Is there anything pertinent regarding national champions and their bench. Do you need to go 8 deep? Have the NC's only gone 6.5 or 7 deep?

 

[IthacaMatt]

What first struck me in the stats was the diversified scoring. To win it appears everyone contributing is essential and not hero ball with a single dominant scorer.

Think about our best teams, and they have spread the scoring around - 2010 - 4 guys averaged double figures, and 3 more averaged 8-9 PPG. 2000, 1987: five guys in double figures. 2012 only had 2 guys average double figures in scoring, but 7 guys average at least 7 points a game.

Deep squads with multiple weapons are harder to shut down, harder to predict what they'll do in the last 2 minutes. You can't leave people open. Tougher to beat when the other team has to guard all five guys.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Is there anything pertinent regarding national champions and their bench. Do you need to go 8 deep? Have the NC's only gone 6.5 or 7 deep?

I think everyone who asks this question should accept it as true that the "short rotation" is a product of the time of the season.

In preseason, he plays 9 or 10, everyone who won't cause us to lose games. Sometimes we even get a look at the third center, for 11 guys, early on. In conference season, he usually plays 8 or 9 (3 guards, 3 forwards, 2 or 3 centers, depending on how good our guys are, and how big the other team is), but fewer in the biggest games, say against Duke or Carolina He doesn't want a couple bad mistakes to cost us the game, so he'll only play guys he trusts.

As we get to the tournament, that's when he goes short bench. It's a matter of having guys who can play multiple positions. If we have 2 or 3 who can swing between guard spots, between guard and forward, or between forward and center, that's when we can keep it down to 7 or 8 guys, fouls permitting.

But you can't just play 7 guys for 40 games. That's how guys get hurt. That's what we saw last year.

 

[OrangeDW]

Think about our best teams, and they have spread the scoring around - 2010 - 4 guys averaged double figures, and 3 more averaged 8-9 PPG. 2000, 1987: five guys in double figures. 2012 only had 2 guys average double figures in scoring, but 7 guys average at least 7 points a game.

Deep squads with multiple weapons are harder to shut down, harder to predict what they'll do in the last 2 minutes. You can't leave people open. Tougher to beat when the other team has to guard all five guys.

2003 we had 4 in doubles, plus Edelin was 9 ppg. Balanced team where we could score in any type of way, as were those other teams except 2012 had nobody to go to on the block

 

[IthacaMatt]

2003 we had 4 in doubles, plus Edelin was 9 ppg. Balanced team where we could score in any type of way, as were those other teams except 2012 had nobody to go to on the block

The 2012 team overcame weakness in the low post with lob feeds and attacking the offensive glass. A lot of our best teams have used that formula.

Edit: 2012 "what might have been" - we had 8 top 100 recruits on that team, six of whom played in the NBA.

 

[General20]

It can be misleading to look at previous NCAA champions as if they figured something out, when in truth the tournament involves a lot of luck, and if played a second time would turn out completely differently. UConn, specifically, wasn't one of the top 25 teams in the country when they won, but every break happened to fall their way. On that list I think only UNC and the second Nova team would have won a best of 7 tournament.

North Carolina got the best team by recruiting a bunch of McDonald's All American's who disappointed the first couple years of their career and couldn't go pro, but eventually grew up and improved together into a great basketball team - this is a bit like winning the lottery, a great strategy if it works but it probably won't work so you can't count on it.

Last year's Nova team was a bit of a revelation for me. I haven't heard anybody suggest they are one of the greatest college basketball teams of all time, but I think they should be put in that category. They didn't play a single close game the entire tournament, and in most games it felt like they could have picked the score they wanted to win by. That almost never happens. I honestly can't think of another team that had such an easy time winning everything. If anybody figured out a championship formula, its Nova.

So what is their formula? Its not complicated, play tough D that slows the other team down and makes them have to really grind out baskets on one end of the court, and on the other end of the court rain down 3's.

This seems to be the basketball version of a Mike Tyson uppercut. Its a knock out punch. Nova was able to demoralized teams this way ... and I'm talking about good teams. Kansas was (in my opinion) the second best team in the country, and would have beaten most of the former champions on this list, and Villanova simply embarrassed them.

On the season as a whole Nova made an average of 11 three's per game, shooting 40% from the three point line.

They did it with a large number of players who could hit the three and also drive to the basket (to keep the defense honest).

It looked different than how Nova does it, but Golden State won 3 of the last 4 NBA titles with much the same formula. Everybody knows how good they are shooting the ball, but perhaps non-NBA fans don't realize they have the #1 D in the league as well.

So how does this apply to SU?

Syracuse's D is going to be championship caliber. Not only that, they force teams to play slow and grind out points in exactly the way that I think will help them them dominate come tournament time.

If Syracuse can rain down 3's on the other side, I don't think there will be anybody who can keep up.

I see 10 as the magic number. When SU drills 10 three's a game at a fairly high percentage they won't lose much ... maybe not at all.

Its not complicated, but I don't think it needs to be. If Syracuse can shoot well from 3 then they will be as good as any team in the country.

Nova, had a good shooting game in 5 of their 6 tournament wins, and played good enough D to win easily in the one game where they shot bad. Can Syracuse do the same?

I think Howard and Battle will be as good as they need to be from 3. The question is how much Battle improved, how good Hughes really is, and if Buddy can contribute. If all those guys are hitting from deep Syracuse might just be able to replicate that championship formula.

 

[IthacaMatt]

It can be misleading to look at previous NCAA champions as if they figured something out, when in truth the tournament involves a lot of luck, and if played a second time would turn out completely differently. UConn, specifically, wasn't one of the top 25 teams in the country when they won, but every break happened to fall their way. On that list I think only UNC and the second Nova team would have won a best of 7 tournament.

North Carolina got the best team by recruiting a bunch of McDonald's All American's who disappointed the first couple years of their career and couldn't go pro, but eventually grew up and improved together into a great basketball team - this is a bit like winning the lottery, a great strategy if it works but it probably won't work so you can't count on it.

Last year's Nova team was a bit of a revelation for me. I haven't heard anybody suggest they are one of the greatest college basketball teams of all time, but I think they should be put in that category. They didn't play a single close game the entire tournament, and in most games it felt like they could have picked the score they wanted to win by. That almost never happens. I honestly can't think of another team that had such an easy time winning everything. If anybody figured out a championship formula, its Nova.

So what is their formula? Its not complicated, play tough D that slows the other team down and makes them have to really grind out baskets on one end of the court, and on the other end of the court rain down 3's.

This seems to be the basketball version of a Mike Tyson uppercut. Its a knock out punch. Nova was able to demoralized teams this way ... and I'm talking about good teams. Kansas was (in my opinion) the second best team in the country, and would have beaten most of the former champions on this list, and Villanova simply embarrassed them.

On the season as a whole Nova made an average of 11 three's per game, shooting 40% from the three point line.

They did it with a large number of players who could hit the three and also drive to the basket (to keep the defense honest).

It looked different than how Nova does it, but Golden State won 3 of the last 4 NBA titles with much the same formula. Everybody knows how good they are shooting the ball, but perhaps non-NBA fans don't realize they have the #1 D in the league as well.

So how does this apply to SU?

Syracuse's D is going to be championship caliber. Not only that, they force teams to play slow and grind out points in exactly the way that I think will help them them dominate come tournament time.

If Syracuse can rain down 3's on the other side, I don't think there will be anybody who can keep up.

I see 10 as the magic number. When SU drills 10 three's a game at a fairly high percentage they won't lose much ... maybe not at all.

Its not complicated, but I don't think it needs to be. If Syracuse can shoot well from 3 then they will be as good as any team in the country.

Nova, had a good shooting game in 5 of their 6 tournament wins, and played good enough D to win easily in the one game where they shot bad. Can Syracuse do the same?

I think Howard and Battle will be as good as they need to be from 3. The question is how much Battle improved, how good Hughes really is, and if Buddy can contribute. If all those guys are hitting from deep Syracuse might just be able to replicate that championship formula.

Terrific post!
I'm filing that one away - 10 threes as the sign whether or not we will win.