quick CF playoff math

[upperdeck]

Since hypotheticals are still in play 3 weeks out

with all the new super leagues and 12 spots

Some simple schedule results just Assuming GA/OSU/TEX/Ore/PSU/Ala are all still pretty good and lose to only good teams

I ended up with this before the league Champ get played

Ore 12-0
OSU 11-1

PSU 11-1
Iowa 10-2
Wisc 9-3
Mich 9-3

GA 12-0
Ala 11-1

Ole Miss 10-2
Mizz 10-2
Ok 10-2
Tex 10-2
LSu 9-3

thats 10 teams 10-2 in those 2 leagues

Not much room for even an 11-1/11-2 ACC/B12 teams to get in

Clem beating GA would be a help but Not many games for the ACC to flip the script in the OC.

the leagues are too big and too many gaps in the schedules now

really need the middle of the SEC Tenn/Aub/Misst/ark /Tam to win a few

 

[rocklloyd]

Hypothetically, What about a 12-0 Syracuse?

 

[hoopsupstate]

There will more upsets in the SEC and Big 10. There’s going to be more teams with three losses.

 

[Bulldog04]

And 11-1 Syracuse team is getting in

 

[upperdeck]

I think an 11-1 SU that loses in the ACC champ game might not get in over an 10-2 SEC team though, We could end up with no good wins and 1 good loss.

The more 3 loss teams the better if we had a magical season.

And this is before going through the exercise for the B12 and ACC that could also have 2-3 10-2 teams or more.

We could in theory be 11-1 and not even be in the ACC Champ game.

 

[721Comstock]

I think an 11-1 SU that loses in the ACC champ game might not get in over an 10-2 SEC team though, We could end up with no good wins and 1 good loss.

The more 3 loss teams the better if we had a magical season.

And this is before going through the exercise for the B12 and ACC that could also have 2-3 10-2 teams or more.

We could in theory be 11-1 and not even be in the ACC Champ game.

Oh look, it’s…

 

[upperdeck]

Oh look, it’s…

I was just going through the path because our schedule is really not very hard and all the games are winnable if we are a solid team.

But the new league structures with no divisions makes it even easier for the SEC/B10 to have multiple teams be pretty good.

Before Mich/OSU/PSU all played so while you could get a split you usually got one of them with 2 losses. But this year of the big teams expected in the B10.

OSU plays 2,, Oregon plays 1, PSU plays 1, Wisc plays 2, Iowa plays 1. not for nothing but Rutgers doesnt play the big boys other than Wisc.

Mich/Tex and Wisc/Ala could play havoc with things though as the big OC games. Even if Boise were to beat Oregon.

 

[WoadBlue]

Since hypotheticals are still in play 3 weeks out

with all the new super leagues and 12 spots

Some simple schedule results just Assuming GA/OSU/TEX/Ore/PSU/Ala are all still pretty good and lose to only good teams

I ended up with this before the league Champ get played

Ore 12-0
OSU 11-1

PSU 11-1
Iowa 10-2
Wisc 9-3
Mich 9-3

GA 12-0
Ala 11-1

Ole Miss 10-2
Mizz 10-2
Ok 10-2
Tex 10-2
LSu 9-3

thats 10 teams 10-2 in those 2 leagues

Not much room for even an 11-1/11-2 ACC/B12 teams to get in

Clem beating GA would be a help but Not many games for the ACC to flip the script in the OC.

the leagues are too big and too many gaps in the schedules now

really need the middle of the SEC Tenn/Aub/Misst/ark /Tam to win a few

What you outline is what those who run the BT and SEC hope becomes the normal pattern. That way their leagues will have total domination of playoffs. So this year and from now one what we need is for the weaker half teams in those leagues to rack up several upsets in league play each season.

As for the ACC, we need it, before September to get off to a great start with Clemson over UGA, Miami over UF, UNC over Minnesota, and VT over Vandy. Plus no losses to non-Power 4 teams.

As the media, including ESPN/ABC, ignores the ACC looking good as long as it can, that needs to continue in Sept: SMU over BYU, Dook over Northwestern, Pitt over Cincy, Cal over Auburn, NCSU over Tenn, Pitt over WVU, BC over Missouri, Wake over Ole Miss, UVA over Maryland, VT over Rutgers, BC over Mich St, SMU over TCU, Louisville over ND.

If we can win enough big games OOC we can overcome some (not most, just some) of the biases against ACC football preached dearly by all media that is attached in any way to BT or SEC.

 

[WoadBlue]

I think an 11-1 SU that loses in the ACC champ game might not get in over an 10-2 SEC team though, We could end up with no good wins and 1 good loss.

The more 3 loss teams the better if we had a magical season.

And this is before going through the exercise for the B12 and ACC that could also have 2-3 10-2 teams or more.

We could in theory be 11-1 and not even be in the ACC Champ game.

In theory we could see 4 ACC teams finish regular season 11-1 or 12-0. Such things are why we have increasing talk about BT and SEC wanting the right to have league 4 team playoffs.

 

[upperdeck]

Yes The ACC could throw teams into the mix as well because teams dont play each other.

 

[Cuse House]

I think our schedule is tougher than it looks. There are a handful of teams that could be sneaky good. Sure we don't play Clemson and FSU, but I am not sold that those teams will be juggernauts anyway.

 

[qdawgg]

To the casual fan this expanded playoff has the appearance of giving more teams access to the playoffs. The SEC and B10 wanted this so more of their teams get in. The other leagues, including the ACC are going to get shafted, regularly, and all the experts will find ways to justify it.

 

[Idiocuse22&]

I think an 11-1 SU that loses in the ACC champ game might not get in over an 10-2 SEC team though, We could end up with no good wins and 1 good loss.

The more 3 loss teams the better if we had a magical season.

And this is before going through the exercise for the B12 and ACC that could also have 2-3 10-2 teams or more.

We could in theory be 11-1 and not even be in the ACC Champ game.

I realize what im about to say is not the way it is but the best records regardless of league should get you in the playoff. A 10-2 Sec team had their chance to win their games, the playoff shouldnt be about redemption- more about perfection.
Reward the regular seasons best regardless of the strength of schedule...within reason.
I mean come on, match up any 11-1 Acc team against the best from the Sec, forget about the 10-2 Sec rematch. Thats lame.

 

[upperdeck]

If you run the FPI numbers you see that any top 25 team would be expected to go 12-0 or 11-1 vs our schedule. So even if we are pretty good we could be 11-1 and that would not make us better than a top 25ish team and still probably see multiple 2-3 loss SEC teams ahead of us.

12-0 by default would probably get us to top 10 and where a loss in the ACC title game would knock us out at 12-1.