Run vs. Pass mixture this year

[Don]

What kind of run pass mixture or balance do you see for the offense it's year. I here the coach say there going to be fast but I don't think that means like a 70 percent pass vs 30 percent run offense. I actually think they will run a lot in fact some games I think they run more than 50 percent of the time. I think it's because the best offensive weapons on the team right now are in the backfield except for Ishmael. I also watched some Bowling Green games and Babers looked content to gash people with the run until the opposing team stopped them. I also think that against teams with better defensive talent that can take away the quick slants and can also get to the passers quickly the run will be our best option. I think Strickland may get 1500 yards or so this year I really do. I also think that Dungey may run more than we think and they will find many ways to get moe the ball.

 

[TheCusian]

What kind of run pass mixture or balance do you see for the offense it's year. I here the coach say there going to be fast but I don't think that means like a 70 percent pass vs 30 percent run offense. I actually think they will run a lot in fact some games I think they run more than 50 percent of the time. I think it's because the best offensive weapons on the team right now are in the backfield except for Ishmael. I also watched some Bowling Green games and Babers looked content to gash people with the run until the opposing team stopped them. I also think that against teams with better defensive talent that can take away the quick slants and can also get to the passers quickly the run will be our best option. I think Strickland may get 1500 yards or so this year I really do. I also think that Dungey may run more than we think and they will find many ways to get moe the ball.

I think it's dependent on how the defense lines up almost entirely. But given the amount of plays Babers runs, I'd bet all of the skill players numbers are jacked.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

The offensive philosophy is to put players on the line, read the defense, and then make the play call. If they load the box, we pass. If they set up to rush three or four, we run. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the offense is not built on play calls but on exploitation.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The offensive philosophy is to put players on the line, read the defense, and then make the play call. If they load the box, we pass. If they set up to rush three or four, we run. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the offense is not built on play calls but on exploitation.

That's true, but it's not coincidence that this offense piles up yardage through the air.

 

[sufandu]

That's true, but it's not coincidence that this offense piles up yardage through the air.

Is that more due to the offense being pass heavy or yards per pass vs yards per run?

 

[SUforme]

Dino said starting running back should expect 2k yards rushing...

 

[SWC75]

Dino said starting running back should expect 2k yards rushing...

Starting or totally? I have to believe Strickland, Fredericks and Morris will all see plenty of action.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

That's true, but it's not coincidence that this offense piles up yardage through the air.

Yeah, but it's not an air raid offense, especially with the current personnel. And the offense piles up yardage because when they throw, they throw into single coverage or with blockers as much as possible.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Yeah, but it's not an air raid offense, especially with the current personnel. And the offense piles up yardage because when they throw, they throw into single coverage or with blockers as much as possible.

The way I see it, they want to throw, and the offense is designed well enough that they can put the defense in position to do what they want.

 

[texascpa]

Dino said starting running back should expect 2k yards rushing...

And he's also told that he expects three receivers to get 1K yards.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

The way I see it, they want to throw, and the offense is designed well enough that they can put the defense in position to do what they want.

I've watched a little of the tape from Bowling Green. I'm of the opinion that they throw it because it's easier to stop the run in our preferred formation (five down linemen, no blocking ends) than it is to cover/contain five potential receivers, especially when their routes take them into space. The run is used as a means to exploit dime/nickel/drop seven pass protection. I'm no expert on air raid, but the run seem to be far less of an auxiliary in this offense.

 

[sufandu]

I've watched a little of the tape from Bowling Green. I'm of the opinion that they throw it because it's easier to stop the run in our preferred formation (five down linemen, no blocking ends) than it is to cover/contain five potential receivers, especially when their routes take them into space. The run is used as a means to exploit dime/nickel/drop seven pass protection. I'm no expert on air raid, but the run seem to be far less of an auxiliary in this offense.

Didn't Baylor have something like 500-600 yards rushing in a game last year, maybe their bowl game. It seems like the take-what-they-give-you nature of this offense could lead to a game with huge passing numbers and another with huge rushing numbers. I could see a pass/run ratio of 50/50 or 60/40 with yardage having a 2/1 ratio.

 

[SWC75]

And he's also told that he expects three receivers to get 1K yards.

So we're going to get 2,000 yards out of the running back position and 1,000 each from the two wide-outs the first year. Okay...

 

[TheCusian]

So we're going to get 2,000 yards out of the running back position and 1,000 each from the two wide-outs the first year. Okay...

I too doubt we will hit all of those marks... But I wouldn't be shocked to see us close. This system is going to wreck our record books (in a good way!)

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Didn't Baylor have something like 500-600 yards rushing in a game last year, maybe their bowl game. It seems like the take-what-they-give-you nature of this offense could lead to a game with huge passing numbers and another with huge rushing numbers. I could see a pass/run ratio of 50/50 or 60/40 with yardage having a 2/1 ratio.

The issue there was more that they ran out of healthy quarterbacks and improvised with a pounding run game.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

With the way the offense is designed, the speed getting up to the line and the formation are intended to make the defense tip what they cover and what they don't have an immediate answer for, and the offense exploits the gap.

It's less about run vs pass and more about attacking where the defense has chosen to stretch itself.

That said... the pass is going to stretch the D more, so you'll see us pass more.

 

[upperdeck]

So we're going to get 2,000 yards out of the running back position and 1,000 each from the two wide-outs the first year. Okay...

we had close to 1500 rushing last year from the RB, even if we run the same avg per play, just by running 20% more plays we get to 1800. it wont take much to get to 2000 if we have any success at all.

 

[TheCusian]

The issue there was more that they ran out of healthy quarterbacks and improvised with a pounding run game.

That particular game - yes. But Baylor has been very good running the ball:

2015: #2 326yds per game
2014: #29 216yds per game
2013: #13 260yds per game
2012: #14 232yds per game

 

[OttoinGrotto]

That particular game - yes. But Baylor has been very good running the ball:

2015: #2 326yds per game
2014: #29 216yds per game
2013: #13 260yds per game
2012: #14 232yds per game

You can be good at a lot of things when you run a ton of plays.

 

[HtownOrange]

Someone did an analysis of the pass/run ration and it was fairly balanced. Since the O is designed to take advantage of the D's "weakness" the ratio will be more determined by what the opposing D shows they intend to defend. A stronger run D will be passed against more and a stronger pass D will be run against more.

The effect on the ratio is of less concern than the effectiveness of picking on the defensive weakness play by play. With the faster play speed and increased number of plays, the net effect is that the rising tide lifts all boats. I expect that HCDB is confident that he has the players in camp to approach these goals.

 

[sufandu]

You can be good at a lot of things when you run a ton of plays.

And when you have great yards per attempt. They were 4th in both passing and rushing last year. Interestingly, they ran the ball more than 50% of the time all four of the years TheCusian posted. Last year they ran 64% of the time, probably because of their injury issues at qb.

College Football Stats - College FB Team Rushing Play Percentage on TeamRankings.com

 

[TheCusian]

Someone did an analysis of the pass/run ration and it was fairly balanced. Since the O is designed to take advantage of the D's "weakness" the ratio will be more determined by what the opposing D shows they intend to defend. A stronger run D will be passed against more and a stronger pass D will be run against more.

The effect on the ratio is of less concern than the effectiveness of picking on the defensive weakness play by play. With the faster play speed and increased number of plays, the net effect is that the rising tide lifts all boats. I expect that HCDB is confident that he has the players in camp to approach these goals.

Agreed. This is the very thing that is going to shock a lot of people around here, even though they are generally aware of what his system is about (fast, pass happy, etc.).

 

[sufandu]

Dino was right around 50/50 the two years at Bowling Green.

 

[007]

Several very good points in this thread from LeMoyne and Htown.

We need to get away from conventional thinking with this offense when it comes to thinking run/pass preferences. This is not the AirRaid. This is a veer and shoot, with an emphasis on making the D respect the threat of the power running game. DB will stress the field vertically and horizontally (very wide splits from the WRs and the O line, and with the pace of play. The D is forced to very quickly analyze formations and set alignments and coverages. The O will then exploit wherever the D is weakest.

We will see a lot of zone read options with a bubble screen tag (or inside slants). Get used to the term RPO (run pass option). In addition to the above, the QB will also be making run/pass options on the fly (after the snap) as the D reacts. We are definitely going to see Dungey keep the ball on a zone read option, run parallel to the LOS and then pull up to pass if the D over commits, or keep the ball if uncovered (but sliding as the D converges). We are going to see power runs off the zone read, and play action off the run threat to deep verticals when we get 1:1 coverage.

This is going to be fun to watch!

 

[TheCusian]

Several very good points in this thread from LeMoyne and Htown.

We need to get away from conventional thinking with this offense when it comes to thinking run/pass preferences. This is not the AirRaid. This is a veer and shoot, with an emphasis on making the D respect the threat of the power running game. DB will stress the field vertically and horizontally (very wide splits from the WRs and the O line, and with the pace of play. The D is forced to very quickly analyze formations and set alignments and coverages. The O will then exploit wherever the D is weakest.

We will see a lot of zone read options with a bubble screen tag (or inside slants). Get used to the term RPO (run pass option). In addition to the above, the QB will also be making run/pass options on the fly (after the snap) as the D reacts. We are definitely going to see Dungey keep the ball on a zone read option, run parallel to the LOS and then pull up to pass if the D over commits, or keep the ball if uncovered (but sliding as the D converges). We are going to see power runs off the zone read, and play action off the run threat to deep verticals when we get 1:1 coverage.

This is going to be fun to watch!

Lots of good points from you, 007.

If you watch a lot of BG highlights, they don't run the zone read that much (3-4 times a game). The bubble is there though, as is the RB between the tackles (I assume due to #'s).