SWC75
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It’s time for my annual thought piece on how I’ll fill out my bracket. There will be three things I’ll consider besides the characteristics of each team: I want to be optimistic about SU’s chances but not unrealistic. As an 11 seed we’ll be underdogs in every game, (unless a lower seed pulls off some upsets and winds up in our way). What I’ll look for it the ‘windshield’: the team that will be favored to be in our path that I really can’t picture us beating, even if we play well. In this field, I think that’s Illinois, who might be the best team in the country right now and who we would meet in a regional final. If form holds, we’d have to beat San Diego State, an 18-9 West Virginia team and Houston, who looked strong on Sunday but mediocre on Saturday. Beating any of those teams would be an upset but they are upsets I could picture happening the way we are playing. Illinois? No. So I’ll put SU in the Elite 8, even though it will be tough to get there.
Per My NCAA Seed Stats post, I should pick two 9 seeds, two 10 seeds and one each of the 11, 12, 13 and 14 seeds to win. SU takes care of the 11 seeds, so I chose Southern California to beat either Wichita State or Drake, Brigham Young to beat Michigan State or UCLA, (I’m not very confident about that one), and Texas Tech to beat Utah State. One of the 8 first round upseters will win in the second round and SU already has dibs on that. After I’ve gotten the first round upsets chosen, I pick the Final Four, which should have two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 or 4 seed.
The third thing is to rely on some kinds of metric rather than my own guesses for the picks. I’ll use my “Against Ranked Teams”, (ART), numbers, (see that post). I’ll give myself the freedom to depart form that but I’ll rely on that to give me an objective basis for my picks. I’ll depart from it only if I have a good reason for doing so.
In the “First Four”, Appalachian State is -25 ART. Norfolk State hasn’t played one. Wichita State is +33, Drake -4. Neither Mount St. Mary’s or Texas Southern has played a ranked team. Michigan State is +71, UCLA -41. I’ll take the Shockers and the Spartans. I think App State is probably better than Norfolk and MSM is just 12-10 while Southern is 16-8 so I’ll go with them.
So who are my other 7 upsets? ART suggests that in the 8-9 games Oklahoma, (+98) will beat Missouri, (-27), Louisiana State (+36) should beat St. Bonaventure (who didn’t play a ranked team), Wisconsin (+77) should beat North Carolina (+77), and Georgia Tech (+112) will beat Loyola (Chicago) +48. Wisconsin and Tech are 9 seeds so I’ll go with them.
Looking at the 10 seeds, Oregon’s ART is -27 while Virginia Commonwealth’s is just -1. Connecticut is +31 but Maryland is +66. Florida is +53, Virginia Tech +17. Clemson is -68, Rutgers +79. Maryland and Rutgers have been playing highly ranked teams all year so I’ll go with them as my two 10 seed winners.
In the 5-12 games, Creighton is -25, (and may have some internal problems), while Santa Barbara hasn’t played a ranked team. Colorado is +76 while Georgetown is +71, most of that obtained in their conference tournament. They seem like a dangerous team. Villanova has the most bizarre record. They were +45 against ranked teams but a horrendous -167 against unranked teams, (meaning their unranked opponents were a combined +167 against ranked teams from their games against Villanova. That leaves the Wildcats with a net -122, indicating that they are a team that plays down to the level of their opposition, very different from their two recent national championship teams. That makes them very vulnerable against 23-1 Winthrop, perhaps the best of the lower majors (who didn’t play a ranked team). Tennessee is +57 and Oregon State is +19. I can only pick one upset here and you’ve got to like how Georgetown is playing, so I’ll go with them.
In the 4-13 games, Virginia is -1, Ohio U. +16.. Florida State is -11. UNC Greensboro has had a game involving a ranked team. Purdue is +94, North Texas State +3. Oklahoma State is +218 while Liberty hasn’t played a ranked team. The Bobcats seem like the obvious choice for an upset winner, especially since Virginia wasn’t playing well and then had Covid problems.
In the 3-14 games, Kansas is +198, Eastern Washington -3. Texas is +143, Abilene Christian +2. Arkansas is +64 while Colgate hasn’t had a game involving a ranked team. West Virginia is +115, Morehead State -50. Colgate is both the sentimental choice and the one that makes the most sense.
Of course I have all the #1 and #2 seeds winning in the first round. They are the best bets in sports. (I am kinda interested in that Alabama-Iona game. Nate Oates vs. Rick Pitino. The most irritating coach of the last generation vs. the most irritating coach of the next one.)
I already have Syracuse winning in the second round, (over West Virginia), so by the historical numbers, the other seven first round upset winners, (Ohio, Georgetown, Maryland, Wisconsin, Colgate, Georgia Tech and Rutgers), will lose in the second round. I have significant doubts about Creighton so I’ll make one of those departures and pick Ohio U. to beat them and make the Sweet 16 but go no farther.
Next: the Final Four teams:
The #1 seeds are Gonzaga +129, Michigan +143, Baylor +196 and Illinois +229
The #2 seeds are Iowa +236, Alabama +7, Ohio State +200 and Houston +92
The #3 seeds still alive are Kansas +198, and Texas +143
The #4 seeds still alive are Florida State -11, Purdue +94 and Oklahoma State + 218
Gonzaga had some decisive victories over some highly ranked opponents early in the season: Kansas 102-90, Auburn 90-67, West Virginia 87-82, Iowa 99-88 and Virginia 98-75. They also had a game against Baylor canceled by Covid, (it would have been #1 vs. #2). These results convinced most people that the Zags were the best team in the country and that it wasn’t close. They were projected to end the regular season undefeated and they did: they are 26-0. Their AQRT is lower than the other #1 seeds because there weren’t other ranked teams in the West Coast Conference. Their performances there were solid and machine-like but they weren’t blowing team away so they didn’t get a lot of points as a ranked team against an unranked team. It doesn’t mean they were any worse but one wonders if playing lesser coemption for two months may have taken an edge off their game. Baylor and Michigan looked as if they might have been the second best teams for much of the season but other faded towards the end. Meanwhile, Illinois has come on strong and won a series of what were like arm-wrestling competitions against other teams in the Big Ten, emerging with the title in the nation’s toughest conference.
Iowa and Ohio State are used to playing top teams but the Buckeyes have beaten more of them in recent games. They are the team that finished second to the Illini in the Big Ten tourney, losing in overtime. Alabama has been playing well down the stretch, winning their last 6 in a row and the SEC title. Houston has bene up and down. Texas has also won 6 in a row and the Big 12 title. Kansas is dealing with a Covid situation. Florida State has under-performed. Purdue couldn’t quite keep up with the teams at the top of the Big Ten. Oklahoma State has maybe the best player in the country in Cade Cunningham and beat Baylor in the Big 12 semis before losing to Texas in the final.
I like Gonzaga and Illinois as the #1 seeds in the Final Four. I’ll go with Ohio State as the #2 seed and Texas as the #3 seed.
That leaves me with 8 games to pick to fill out the regionals:
Kansas +198 over Southern California -44
Iowa +236 over Oregon -27
Iowa over Kansas
Michigan +143 over Louisiana State +36
Michigan over Florida State -11
Purdue +94 over Villanova -122
Baylor +196 over Purdue
Oklahoma State +218 over Tennessee +57
Now the Final Four:
(Three of the four teams have never won a national title and the fourth, Ohio State, last won over 60 years ago.)
I think Gonzaga still has that extra gear, even if they haven’t had to use it for a while and will get by Texas.
Ohio State has given Illinois all kinds of problems, beating them 87-81 in Champaign on January 16th, losing to them 68-73 in Columbus and then losing in the Big ten final in overtime, 88-91. Still, I think the Illini are the better team and will beat them for the third straight time to make it into the championship game.
I think Illinois has the size, talent and depth to compete with Gonzaga and they are battle tested, facing one top team after another in the nation’s best conference. I’ll pick them to win a close one and earn their first ever national title.
Done.
(FWIW)
Per My NCAA Seed Stats post, I should pick two 9 seeds, two 10 seeds and one each of the 11, 12, 13 and 14 seeds to win. SU takes care of the 11 seeds, so I chose Southern California to beat either Wichita State or Drake, Brigham Young to beat Michigan State or UCLA, (I’m not very confident about that one), and Texas Tech to beat Utah State. One of the 8 first round upseters will win in the second round and SU already has dibs on that. After I’ve gotten the first round upsets chosen, I pick the Final Four, which should have two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 or 4 seed.
The third thing is to rely on some kinds of metric rather than my own guesses for the picks. I’ll use my “Against Ranked Teams”, (ART), numbers, (see that post). I’ll give myself the freedom to depart form that but I’ll rely on that to give me an objective basis for my picks. I’ll depart from it only if I have a good reason for doing so.
In the “First Four”, Appalachian State is -25 ART. Norfolk State hasn’t played one. Wichita State is +33, Drake -4. Neither Mount St. Mary’s or Texas Southern has played a ranked team. Michigan State is +71, UCLA -41. I’ll take the Shockers and the Spartans. I think App State is probably better than Norfolk and MSM is just 12-10 while Southern is 16-8 so I’ll go with them.
So who are my other 7 upsets? ART suggests that in the 8-9 games Oklahoma, (+98) will beat Missouri, (-27), Louisiana State (+36) should beat St. Bonaventure (who didn’t play a ranked team), Wisconsin (+77) should beat North Carolina (+77), and Georgia Tech (+112) will beat Loyola (Chicago) +48. Wisconsin and Tech are 9 seeds so I’ll go with them.
Looking at the 10 seeds, Oregon’s ART is -27 while Virginia Commonwealth’s is just -1. Connecticut is +31 but Maryland is +66. Florida is +53, Virginia Tech +17. Clemson is -68, Rutgers +79. Maryland and Rutgers have been playing highly ranked teams all year so I’ll go with them as my two 10 seed winners.
In the 5-12 games, Creighton is -25, (and may have some internal problems), while Santa Barbara hasn’t played a ranked team. Colorado is +76 while Georgetown is +71, most of that obtained in their conference tournament. They seem like a dangerous team. Villanova has the most bizarre record. They were +45 against ranked teams but a horrendous -167 against unranked teams, (meaning their unranked opponents were a combined +167 against ranked teams from their games against Villanova. That leaves the Wildcats with a net -122, indicating that they are a team that plays down to the level of their opposition, very different from their two recent national championship teams. That makes them very vulnerable against 23-1 Winthrop, perhaps the best of the lower majors (who didn’t play a ranked team). Tennessee is +57 and Oregon State is +19. I can only pick one upset here and you’ve got to like how Georgetown is playing, so I’ll go with them.
In the 4-13 games, Virginia is -1, Ohio U. +16.. Florida State is -11. UNC Greensboro has had a game involving a ranked team. Purdue is +94, North Texas State +3. Oklahoma State is +218 while Liberty hasn’t played a ranked team. The Bobcats seem like the obvious choice for an upset winner, especially since Virginia wasn’t playing well and then had Covid problems.
In the 3-14 games, Kansas is +198, Eastern Washington -3. Texas is +143, Abilene Christian +2. Arkansas is +64 while Colgate hasn’t had a game involving a ranked team. West Virginia is +115, Morehead State -50. Colgate is both the sentimental choice and the one that makes the most sense.
Of course I have all the #1 and #2 seeds winning in the first round. They are the best bets in sports. (I am kinda interested in that Alabama-Iona game. Nate Oates vs. Rick Pitino. The most irritating coach of the last generation vs. the most irritating coach of the next one.)
I already have Syracuse winning in the second round, (over West Virginia), so by the historical numbers, the other seven first round upset winners, (Ohio, Georgetown, Maryland, Wisconsin, Colgate, Georgia Tech and Rutgers), will lose in the second round. I have significant doubts about Creighton so I’ll make one of those departures and pick Ohio U. to beat them and make the Sweet 16 but go no farther.
Next: the Final Four teams:
The #1 seeds are Gonzaga +129, Michigan +143, Baylor +196 and Illinois +229
The #2 seeds are Iowa +236, Alabama +7, Ohio State +200 and Houston +92
The #3 seeds still alive are Kansas +198, and Texas +143
The #4 seeds still alive are Florida State -11, Purdue +94 and Oklahoma State + 218
Gonzaga had some decisive victories over some highly ranked opponents early in the season: Kansas 102-90, Auburn 90-67, West Virginia 87-82, Iowa 99-88 and Virginia 98-75. They also had a game against Baylor canceled by Covid, (it would have been #1 vs. #2). These results convinced most people that the Zags were the best team in the country and that it wasn’t close. They were projected to end the regular season undefeated and they did: they are 26-0. Their AQRT is lower than the other #1 seeds because there weren’t other ranked teams in the West Coast Conference. Their performances there were solid and machine-like but they weren’t blowing team away so they didn’t get a lot of points as a ranked team against an unranked team. It doesn’t mean they were any worse but one wonders if playing lesser coemption for two months may have taken an edge off their game. Baylor and Michigan looked as if they might have been the second best teams for much of the season but other faded towards the end. Meanwhile, Illinois has come on strong and won a series of what were like arm-wrestling competitions against other teams in the Big Ten, emerging with the title in the nation’s toughest conference.
Iowa and Ohio State are used to playing top teams but the Buckeyes have beaten more of them in recent games. They are the team that finished second to the Illini in the Big Ten tourney, losing in overtime. Alabama has been playing well down the stretch, winning their last 6 in a row and the SEC title. Houston has bene up and down. Texas has also won 6 in a row and the Big 12 title. Kansas is dealing with a Covid situation. Florida State has under-performed. Purdue couldn’t quite keep up with the teams at the top of the Big Ten. Oklahoma State has maybe the best player in the country in Cade Cunningham and beat Baylor in the Big 12 semis before losing to Texas in the final.
I like Gonzaga and Illinois as the #1 seeds in the Final Four. I’ll go with Ohio State as the #2 seed and Texas as the #3 seed.
That leaves me with 8 games to pick to fill out the regionals:
Kansas +198 over Southern California -44
Iowa +236 over Oregon -27
Iowa over Kansas
Michigan +143 over Louisiana State +36
Michigan over Florida State -11
Purdue +94 over Villanova -122
Baylor +196 over Purdue
Oklahoma State +218 over Tennessee +57
Now the Final Four:
(Three of the four teams have never won a national title and the fourth, Ohio State, last won over 60 years ago.)
I think Gonzaga still has that extra gear, even if they haven’t had to use it for a while and will get by Texas.
Ohio State has given Illinois all kinds of problems, beating them 87-81 in Champaign on January 16th, losing to them 68-73 in Columbus and then losing in the Big ten final in overtime, 88-91. Still, I think the Illini are the better team and will beat them for the third straight time to make it into the championship game.
I think Illinois has the size, talent and depth to compete with Gonzaga and they are battle tested, facing one top team after another in the nation’s best conference. I’ll pick them to win a close one and earn their first ever national title.
Done.
(FWIW)
