simple rating system us vs opponents

Millhouse

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we're 50th. If that rating is right and our opponents are right and home vs away doesn't matter, we're on track for 6-6. Even if you adjust our ranking up and down depending whether we're at home or on the road to take that into account, it doesn't make a difference.

If being home makes us play like 48th and being away makes us play like 52nd, we'd go 7-5. If home field matters more than that, it still works out to 7-5 unless you start making crazy assumptions that home and away matters way too much

NC State 73rd
Pitt 49th
FSU 39th
BC 93rd
Duke 37th
Lou 62
Wake 36th

We all think Wake and NC St is better than SRS says but it makes me feel a little better about it

How much difference is there between 39th and 73rd really

Hard to see 5-2 though, i think 8th win would need to be a bowl
 
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TheCusian

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we're 50th. If that rating is right and our opponents are right and home vs away doesn't matter, we're on track for 6-6. Even if you adjust our ranking up and down depending whether we're at home or on the road to take that into account, it doesn't make a difference.

If being home makes us play like 48th and being away makes us play like 52nd, we'd go 7-5. If home field matters more than that, it still works out to 7-5 unless you start making crazy assumptions that home and away matters way too much

NC State 73rd
Pitt 49th
FSU 39th
BC 93rd
Lou 62
Wake 36th

We all think Wake and NC St is better than SRS says but it makes me feel a little better about it

How much difference is there between 39th and 73rd really

Hard to see 5-2 though, i think 8th win would need to be a bowl
I think that's pretty spot on for Wake. Warts on D are being overlooked in favor of their offense.
 

HRE Otto IV

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we're 50th. If that rating is right and our opponents are right and home vs away doesn't matter, we're on track for 6-6. Even if you adjust our ranking up and down depending whether we're at home or on the road to take that into account, it doesn't make a difference.

If being home makes us play like 48th and being away makes us play like 52nd, we'd go 7-5. If home field matters more than that, it still works out to 7-5 unless you start making crazy assumptions that home and away matters way too much

NC State 73rd
Pitt 49th
FSU 39th
BC 93rd
Duke 37th
Lou 62
Wake 36th

We all think Wake and NC St is better than SRS says but it makes me feel a little better about it

How much difference is there between 39th and 73rd really

Hard to see 5-2 though, i think 8th win would need to be a bowl
Hard to see? You cannot see us beating 49, 93, and 36 at home? Or 76 and 62 on the road?
 

OttoinGrotto

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It's a stupid thing, but I'd like to see us end the season at 8 wins just because that puts Babers as a HC over .500 heading into next season. Plus in my head 8 wins feels like a big achievement. It's a validation.

At 7 he's right on .500. Which is fine. That's Marrone territory.
 

djorange1989

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Hard to see? You cannot see us beating 49, 93, and 36 at home? Or 76 and 62 on the road?
that is a lot of toss up-ish wins, understandable why he cannot see it, we have not looked good yet. stranger things have happened, but it's hard to see more than 6-7 wins based on how we have played, and even 7 is rough.
 

upperdeck

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who has looked good in the acc

wake is 5-0 should probably be 4-1 but also a play away from 2-3
su is 3-2 probably where should be
fsu 3-2 a play from 5-0 but also could 1-4 or 2-3
UL 3-2 but could be 4-1 or 2-3
bc is 3-3 could be 5-1 or 2-4
nc st is 3-2 could easily be 2-3

UV is 4-1 could be 2-3
UNC is 3-3 could be 1-5 or 6-0 with a play in each game. pretty wild
Pitt 4-2 could be 5-1 or 1-5 as well.. could quite easily lost the last 4
duke 3-2 could be 4-1
VT 3-2 should probably be 0-5 but could be 4-1 not sure how they got 3-2 except for beating bad teams and bounces
miami 2-3 could be 5-0 or 1-4.
GT 1-4 could be 0-5 or 2-3

every team but us has had a crazy number of one score one play type games except us who has had games of 24,43,35,19,38 spreads..

dont know if every game being basically a 3td+ type of game is good or bad but it does remove the lucky result so many ACC teams have had so far
 

kcsu

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who has looked good in the acc

wake is 5-0 should probably be 4-1 but also a play away from 2-3
su is 3-2 probably where should be
fsu 3-2 a play from 5-0 but also could 1-4 or 2-3
UL 3-2 but could be 4-1 or 2-3
bc is 3-3 could be 5-1 or 2-4
nc st is 3-2 could easily be 2-3

UV is 4-1 could be 2-3
UNC is 3-3 could be 1-5 or 6-0 with a play in each game. pretty wild
Pitt 4-2 could be 5-1 or 1-5 as well.. could quite easily lost the last 4
duke 3-2 could be 4-1
VT 3-2 should probably be 0-5 but could be 4-1 not sure how they got 3-2 except for beating bad teams and bounces
miami 2-3 could be 5-0 or 1-4.
GT 1-4 could be 0-5 or 2-3

every team but us has had a crazy number of one score one play type games except us who has had games of 24,43,35,19,38 spreads..

dont know if every game being basically a 3td+ type of game is good or bad but it does remove the lucky result so many ACC teams have had so far
Nice report that shows little separation between most teams. The one true advantage that we have over every other team is our special teams play. In tight contest they provide a huge advantage. Hof is worth 40-60 yards a game in positive field position.
 

Shrmdougluvr

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Interesting data point. I like when you do this and it seems consistent with the "eye test." Of course, teams also improve, and teams also get worse.
 

Millhouse

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Hard to see? You cannot see us beating 49, 93, and 36 at home? Or 76 and 62 on the road?
I think these games are pretty evenly matched and I don't think we'll win 5 out of 7. sure any of those are individually winnable but i'll be suprised if 5 go our way
 

Millhouse

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Nice report that shows little separation between most teams. The one true advantage that we have over every other team is our special teams play. In tight contest they provide a huge advantage. Hof is worth 40-60 yards a game in positive field position.
he's good but he's not that much better than other kickers
 

ORRange

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Always like your insight but not this time. He's the best I've seen since Ray Guy. He makes a big difference
 

Millhouse

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Always like your insight but not this time. He's the best I've seen since Ray Guy. He makes a big difference
50 yards though? how many times is he going to kick tonight? i am with you that he's good
 

SUFan44

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he's good but he's not that much better than other kickers
I think in college he is.

If we have to punt 5 times and he's averaging 45 yards per punt, the other kid averages 35, that's 50 yards.

EDIT: NC State's punter is very good too. In fact, statistically better than Hof. So maybe not tonight.
 

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