simple rating system us vs opponents

Millhouse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 16, 2011
Messages
25,313
Like
25,443
we're 50th. If that rating is right and our opponents are right and home vs away doesn't matter, we're on track for 6-6. Even if you adjust our ranking up and down depending whether we're at home or on the road to take that into account, it doesn't make a difference.

If being home makes us play like 48th and being away makes us play like 52nd, we'd go 7-5. If home field matters more than that, it still works out to 7-5 unless you start making crazy assumptions that home and away matters way too much

NC State 73rd
Pitt 49th
FSU 39th
BC 93rd
Duke 37th
Lou 62
Wake 36th

We all think Wake and NC St is better than SRS says but it makes me feel a little better about it

How much difference is there between 39th and 73rd really

Hard to see 5-2 though, i think 8th win would need to be a bowl
 
Last edited:

TheCusian

Living Legend
Joined
Sep 24, 2012
Messages
18,048
Like
22,474
we're 50th. If that rating is right and our opponents are right and home vs away doesn't matter, we're on track for 6-6. Even if you adjust our ranking up and down depending whether we're at home or on the road to take that into account, it doesn't make a difference.

If being home makes us play like 48th and being away makes us play like 52nd, we'd go 7-5. If home field matters more than that, it still works out to 7-5 unless you start making crazy assumptions that home and away matters way too much

NC State 73rd
Pitt 49th
FSU 39th
BC 93rd
Lou 62
Wake 36th

We all think Wake and NC St is better than SRS says but it makes me feel a little better about it

How much difference is there between 39th and 73rd really

Hard to see 5-2 though, i think 8th win would need to be a bowl
I think that's pretty spot on for Wake. Warts on D are being overlooked in favor of their offense.
 

HRE Otto IV

Starter
Joined
Jan 14, 2016
Messages
1,239
Like
1,428
we're 50th. If that rating is right and our opponents are right and home vs away doesn't matter, we're on track for 6-6. Even if you adjust our ranking up and down depending whether we're at home or on the road to take that into account, it doesn't make a difference.

If being home makes us play like 48th and being away makes us play like 52nd, we'd go 7-5. If home field matters more than that, it still works out to 7-5 unless you start making crazy assumptions that home and away matters way too much

NC State 73rd
Pitt 49th
FSU 39th
BC 93rd
Duke 37th
Lou 62
Wake 36th

We all think Wake and NC St is better than SRS says but it makes me feel a little better about it

How much difference is there between 39th and 73rd really

Hard to see 5-2 though, i think 8th win would need to be a bowl
Hard to see? You cannot see us beating 49, 93, and 36 at home? Or 76 and 62 on the road?
 

OttoinGrotto

Doggy doggy WHAT now?
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
29,073
Like
55,312
It's a stupid thing, but I'd like to see us end the season at 8 wins just because that puts Babers as a HC over .500 heading into next season. Plus in my head 8 wins feels like a big achievement. It's a validation.

At 7 he's right on .500. Which is fine. That's Marrone territory.
 

djorange1989

All American
Joined
Jun 30, 2013
Messages
6,821
Like
12,798
Hard to see? You cannot see us beating 49, 93, and 36 at home? Or 76 and 62 on the road?
that is a lot of toss up-ish wins, understandable why he cannot see it, we have not looked good yet. stranger things have happened, but it's hard to see more than 6-7 wins based on how we have played, and even 7 is rough.
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
13,638
Like
9,320
who has looked good in the acc

wake is 5-0 should probably be 4-1 but also a play away from 2-3
su is 3-2 probably where should be
fsu 3-2 a play from 5-0 but also could 1-4 or 2-3
UL 3-2 but could be 4-1 or 2-3
bc is 3-3 could be 5-1 or 2-4
nc st is 3-2 could easily be 2-3

UV is 4-1 could be 2-3
UNC is 3-3 could be 1-5 or 6-0 with a play in each game. pretty wild
Pitt 4-2 could be 5-1 or 1-5 as well.. could quite easily lost the last 4
duke 3-2 could be 4-1
VT 3-2 should probably be 0-5 but could be 4-1 not sure how they got 3-2 except for beating bad teams and bounces
miami 2-3 could be 5-0 or 1-4.
GT 1-4 could be 0-5 or 2-3

every team but us has had a crazy number of one score one play type games except us who has had games of 24,43,35,19,38 spreads..

dont know if every game being basically a 3td+ type of game is good or bad but it does remove the lucky result so many ACC teams have had so far
 

kcsu

Hall of Fame
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
8,821
Like
11,942
who has looked good in the acc

wake is 5-0 should probably be 4-1 but also a play away from 2-3
su is 3-2 probably where should be
fsu 3-2 a play from 5-0 but also could 1-4 or 2-3
UL 3-2 but could be 4-1 or 2-3
bc is 3-3 could be 5-1 or 2-4
nc st is 3-2 could easily be 2-3

UV is 4-1 could be 2-3
UNC is 3-3 could be 1-5 or 6-0 with a play in each game. pretty wild
Pitt 4-2 could be 5-1 or 1-5 as well.. could quite easily lost the last 4
duke 3-2 could be 4-1
VT 3-2 should probably be 0-5 but could be 4-1 not sure how they got 3-2 except for beating bad teams and bounces
miami 2-3 could be 5-0 or 1-4.
GT 1-4 could be 0-5 or 2-3

every team but us has had a crazy number of one score one play type games except us who has had games of 24,43,35,19,38 spreads..

dont know if every game being basically a 3td+ type of game is good or bad but it does remove the lucky result so many ACC teams have had so far
Nice report that shows little separation between most teams. The one true advantage that we have over every other team is our special teams play. In tight contest they provide a huge advantage. Hof is worth 40-60 yards a game in positive field position.
 

Shrmdougluvr

Drinkin Henny and I'm tryna forget
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
3,187
Like
4,538
Interesting data point. I like when you do this and it seems consistent with the "eye test." Of course, teams also improve, and teams also get worse.
 

Millhouse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 16, 2011
Messages
25,313
Like
25,443
Hard to see? You cannot see us beating 49, 93, and 36 at home? Or 76 and 62 on the road?
I think these games are pretty evenly matched and I don't think we'll win 5 out of 7. sure any of those are individually winnable but i'll be suprised if 5 go our way
 

Millhouse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 16, 2011
Messages
25,313
Like
25,443
Nice report that shows little separation between most teams. The one true advantage that we have over every other team is our special teams play. In tight contest they provide a huge advantage. Hof is worth 40-60 yards a game in positive field position.
he's good but he's not that much better than other kickers
 

ORRange

Starter
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
Messages
1,023
Like
1,449
Always like your insight but not this time. He's the best I've seen since Ray Guy. He makes a big difference
 

Millhouse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 16, 2011
Messages
25,313
Like
25,443
Always like your insight but not this time. He's the best I've seen since Ray Guy. He makes a big difference
50 yards though? how many times is he going to kick tonight? i am with you that he's good
 

SUFan44

All American
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
5,763
Like
8,627
he's good but he's not that much better than other kickers
I think in college he is.

If we have to punt 5 times and he's averaging 45 yards per punt, the other kid averages 35, that's 50 yards.

EDIT: NC State's punter is very good too. In fact, statistically better than Hof. So maybe not tonight.
 

Online statistics

Members online
245
Guests online
607
Total visitors
852

Top Bottom