So Analyze This: Virginia Tech | Syracusefan.com

So Analyze This: Virginia Tech

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Some fans viewed Miami as a pushover, they were anything but that.

Now comes Virginia Tech and I'm already hearing the same pre-Miami cockiness.

Reminder, during VPI's tenure in the Big East Syracuse never ventured into Blacksburg

Reminder, Virginia Tech beat the Hurricanes in Blacksburg

Like Miami the Hookies come into the contest with 8 wins. They have 4 losses

The losses:

To #1 Michigan St 77-96 in Brooklyn

Seton Hall 67-68 in Brooklyn (10-5 record)

VCU 52-82 on the road (12-3 record)

UNCG 52-55 @ home (a 9 loss team)

They do have wins over Miami 61-60 in OT and West Virginia 87-82.

Do you think we have anything to worry about?
 
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Some fans viewed Miami as a pushover, they were anything but that.

Now comes Virginia Tech and I'm already hearing the same pre-Miami cockiness.

Reminder, during VPI's tenure in the Big East Syracuse never ventured into Blacksburg

Reminder, Virginia Tech beat the Hurricanes in Blacksburg

Like Miami the Hookies come into the contest with 8 wins. They have 4 losses

The losses:

To #1 Michigan St 77-96 in Brooklyn

Seton Hall 67-68 in Brooklyn

VCU 52-82 on the road

UNCG 52-55 @ home (a 9 loss team)

They do have wins over Miami 61-60 in OT and West Virginia 87-82.

Do you think we have anything to worry about?
If we play like we did yesterday we will lose.
 
Some fans viewed Miami as a pushover, they were anything but that.

Now comes Virginia Tech and I'm already hearing the same pre-Miami cockiness.

Reminder, during VPI's tenure in the Big East Syracuse never ventured into Blacksburg

Reminder, Virginia Tech beat the Hurricanes in Blacksburg

Like Miami the Hookies come into the contest with 8 wins. They have 4 losses

The losses:

To #1 Michigan St 77-96 in Brooklyn

Seton Hall 67-68 in Brooklyn

VCU 52-82 on the road

UNCG 52-55 @ home (a 9 loss team)

They do have wins over Miami 61-60 in OT and West Virginia 87-82.

Do you think we have anything to worry about?

we shouldnt have anything to worry about. but it is painfully clear after 14 games that we are going to suffer through abysmal stretches in each game and play to the level of our competition.

Hopefully that is good news against the good teams... but we wont make it easy on ourselves against the teams we should dominate. and i am already stressed out for our 1st and 2nd round (technically 2nd or 3rd) of the tournament.
 
I still think Miami is a pushover.

Cooney shooting 2-11 (or whatever he was) was an anomaly. Going 8+ minutes without a fg to start a half is also an anomaly. Also, how many miracle 3s did Miami hit in the first half, especially considering they had only shot 30% from 3 before this game?

Things went horrifically wrong and we still won. Had this not been against lower-quality opponent, we would have lost.

Anyway, I've seen Vtech play a couple times this year...we should win easy. However, this doesn't mean we will.
 
Any road game in conference can be a loss. The VPI faithful will be rocking and we will need to bring at least our 'B' game to win. I can remember DUke & UNC losing in Blacksburg...although I think VPI has had better teams than this years version. The thing is I like our team and they seem to deal with adversity pretty well. We just haven't done it at someone's home gym (the small intimate arenas that the ACC seems to have lots of). Prediction: SU-74 VPI- 68
 
First, no students for Va tech which will help. I expect a 8 to 10 pt win.
 
Virginia Tech isn't good, but that doesn't mean they can't beat us. If Cooney struggles again, and the offense goes in the tank, we could be in for some trouble. I really hope VT doesn't slow the game down to a crawl like the U did.
 
Lawrinson14 said:
I still think Miami is a pushover. Cooney shooting 2-11 (or whatever he was) was an anomaly. Going 8+ minutes without a fg to start a half is also an anomaly. Also, how many miracle 3s did Miami hit in the first half, especially considering they had only shot 30% from 3 before this game? Things went horrifically wrong and we still won. Had this not been against lower-quality opponent, we would have lost. Anyway, I've seen Vtech play a couple times this year...we should win easy. However, this doesn't mean we will.

I didn't think they hit any miracle 3s, they had some pretty good looks.
 
Vtech has 5 guys shooting 40 pct or better from 3. They are at home and its in conf play. I would be surprised if they didnt jump on us early with 3s. With that said they are much worse defensively than miami and will not be so well coached up. I expect a 75-64 score with us pulling away later. We should all know from conf play in the BE that records get tossed. How many harder than normal games vs RU, south fla, shu did we have on the road in early conf play. Yeah... that kinda game.
 
We are lucky this game is being played when the students are gone. I would imagine many would come back for the Syracuse game, though. We must remember that we are a big deal to the ACC teams. I, too, recall superior Duke teams being beaten by VT and would never underestimate going into Blacksburg.
 
I can't keep my "cockiness" down. I think we crush them. Miami play a very good game on defense and hit a lot of threes. At some point our guys will get good at making baskets on 1-2-2 matchup zones. Grant and Cooney will show up. Christmas is turning it up a level.
 
... play a very good game on defense and hit a lot of threes.

Hmmm, sounds just like one of my favorite teams, who has been quite successful using that model ... :)
 
When you're ranked #2 everyone wants to beat you and will give you their best game. I'm not worried though. We're #2 for a reason.

BE teams used to piss me off, like Providence, DePaul and Rutgers, who give it up like a prom queen to other teams, but got all big and bad when SU came to town. SU is SU, whether we're 2 or 22. :)
 
Strange Offensive Numbers 3pt% vs Overall Efficiency

2 things that don't correlate.

1) As pointed above, 5 guys shoot a total of 44% on 18 attempts a game. As a team 42% on 20 attempts. Very good.
2) Offensive efficiency is 227th in the nation (KP schedule adjusted). This is really bad for a BCS team.

Given that level of shooting, and the benefit of strong 3 point shooting on efficiency, I would expect a better offence .

So what is going on. Obviously there 2 point shooting must be terrible. And it is. They are shooting only 45% on 2 points shots. But you have to remember they have played the 294th best schedule in the country, so that 45% is downright embarassing. I wonder if some of there high usage players just take way too many long jumpers These are the type of cupcake teams that you should be able to generate much better looks against.

The split of 2's vs 3's has been about 64%/36%. So I guess it going to be interesting how far JB pushes them out with the 2-3. Certainly you can get burnt against better offences doing that, but I'm not sure Tech has the skill level to take advantage of it. How much will we bait them into trying this way of Can we funnel some of there high usage scorers, into taking long 2's?

That is the key of the game for me - how will Jim B force VT into taking two's.

KP rankings and Past Quality Home Wins

Yes, the Seth Greenberg era VT teams were tough at home. But those teams were much better. This VT team is nowhere near as good.

2014 KP = 124 (8-5, but schedule is a bad #294, headed to below .500)
2013 KP = 158 (below .500)
2012 KP = 98 (below .500)

The Seth Greenberg NCAA bubble teams were typically 35 to 55 in KP. So those teams that beat Duke were much better than they are today. Relieving Greenberg of his duties has not really solved anything for VT.

Its still a Road Game

I have often commented that the committee misses out on quality wins by not considering sub 50 road wins. A win against a 25-50 ranked team at home is no better than a win against a 50-100 team on the road. In the past I have found team #50 at home is about the same as team #120 on the road.

This year, looking at KP numbers, VT on the road at #124 is about the same as playing team #45 at home. Playing on the road is a big difference, that I think is undervalued at times.

The line will start around 10. Just the right amount that if you play a C game, and your opponent plays an A game you will get burnet.
 
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Looking at the statistics only five players have appeared in all 13 games this season. I think I read one of their starting forwards (Barksdale?) served a 3-games suspension but 3 of their top 4 scorers have missed at least 3 games already. Whether due to other suspensions, injuries or just an early season lineup in flux early season results may not accurately portray the team we see Tuesday night.

That being said, the Hokies were picked 15th in the ACC for a reason, lost a lot from a team that struggled last year, don't defend well or score well at all (though they do have impressive rebounding numbers) and should be double digit underdogs on their home court.
 
Vtech has 5 guys shooting 40 pct or better from 3. They are at home and its in conf play. I would be surprised if they didnt jump on us early with 3s. With that said they are much worse defensively than miami and will not be so well coached up. I expect a 75-64 score with us pulling away later. We should all know from conf play in the BE that records get tossed. How many harder than normal games vs RU, south fla, shu did we have on the road in early conf play. Yeah... that kinda game.
Totally agree. Never underestimate a road game.
 
Totally agree. Never underestimate a road game.

SU has played at VT before. I still think the away game at Wake Forest just before the Duke game at home is the one that gives me the most concern.
 
The big thing vs tech will be their defense is porous and they lack size like miami had. Without those two advantages we should be able to put game pressure on them and score efficiently.
 
The big thing vs tech will be their defense is porous and they lack size like miami had. Without those two advantages we should be able to put game pressure on them and score efficiently.

Actually there defence is not that bad statistically - it is ranked 69th in the nation in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. They are similar to Miami - both teams have really bad offences and OK defences. Tech gets it done without size however, so they will play a little differently.
 

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