so the 12 team playoff question

[upperdeck]

Will it be better to be 10-2 and miss a Conf title game than 10-2 play one and lose?

Much like ND will always get that bye before the playoffs.

10-2 and win and you will get a bye which is the flip side.

For an SEC team 10-2 gets you in most of the time.. For SU/ACC 10-2 probably wont.

 

[DomeStranger]

I think 10-2 should be enough as there will be a few 9-3 teams get in. It also will depend on the 10-3 teams and how they look, what there schedule is like and if they are Alabama or Notre Dame.

I also think it will depend on how many conferences are included. Sounds like the base line is 4 each for SEC/B1G and the other 4 up for grabs. So if the ACC/B12/G5 only has 3 other teams (or less) at 10-2 or better then you have a better shot. But no, a 10-2 ACC team probably isn't bumping a 9-3 SEC team unless the SEC already has there 4 teams in.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

How often will a 10-2 Top 10 team not be in the Top 10 after losing the CCG? Certainly worth the risk for the reward of gaining a Top 4 seed and a bye.

Over the last 6 real seasons it has happened once.

2023
Louisville went from 14th to 15th so out either way.
Iowa from 16th to 17th

2022
None

2021
Oregon went from 10th to 14th so there is one.
Iowa 13th to 15th
Wake from 16th to 17th

2019
Utah from 5th to 11th but would have still made it.

2017
TCU went from 11th to 15th but would not have made it anyway.

 

[wiseman3]

10-2 this year with no ACC championship game means we definitely won't make it. 10-2 next year with our beast of a schedule, that's different. 2 losses this year means we have no signature wins or we lost games to bad opponents. It's definitely worth the "risk"

 

[baggerbob]

10-2 this year with no ACC championship game means we definitely won't make it. 10-2 next year with our beast of a schedule, that's different. 2 losses this year means we have no signature wins or we lost games to bad opponents. It's definitely worth the "risk"

The last few teams in are going to be picked because they will draw ratings.
If Fran goes, 10-2, or 11-1 he will be The talk of the Networks and will get in.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Will it be better to be 10-2 and miss a Conf title game than 10-2 play one and lose?

Much like ND will always get that bye before the playoffs.

10-2 and win and you will get a bye which is the flip side.

For an SEC team 10-2 gets you in most of the time.. For SU/ACC 10-2 probably wont.

I think if you get into your conference championship game, it greatly increases your chances of making the group of 12. Some third or fourth place team from the SEC is going to have a harder time displacing a conference championship finalist.

 

[upperdeck]

I was just going by the betting odds which have 4-5 teams from the B10/Sec in the top 10 or so. To do that I would expect 9-3/10-2 teams to get in.

I dont know that if we go 11-1 and lose in the ACC finals we get in either

It probably is a bigger deal for the 3-5th teams in those other leagues

 

[IthacaMatt]

I was just going by the betting odds which have 4-5 teams from the B10/Sec in the top 10 or so. To do that I would expect 9-3/10-2 teams to get in.

I dont know that if we go 11-1 and lose in the ACC finals we get in either

It probably is a bigger deal for the 3-5th teams in those other leagues

I think there was a huge media stink last year over Fla State's exclusion. I don't see that happening again. Lawmakers would get involved. The NCAA and ESPN don't want that.

 

[upperdeck]

I think the issue would be say if 11-1 FSU loses to 9-3 SU and the rest of the ACC falls off a cliff allowing that to happen.

But while we might not end up with multiple 12-0 teams conferences.. They are large enough we could see 4-5 10-2 teams in a few and then one of the 10-2 losses to be 10-3 and have a 10-2 who had beat them in the reg season.

even say 9-3 Clemson with a GA loss over a 10-2 team with no good losses. who knows.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I was just going by the betting odds which have 4-5 teams from the B10/Sec in the top 10 or so. To do that I would expect 9-3/10-2 teams to get in.

I dont know that if we go 11-1 and lose in the ACC finals we get in either

It probably is a bigger deal for the 3-5th teams in those other leagues

It depends on how we look in our Ws and who we lose to. In the CFB Playoff era every non power 1 loss conference CG winner would have made the 12 team playoff in theory.

2021 Okie State was 11-1 and finished 9th.
2019 Utah was 11-1 and finished 11th.
2019 Baylor was 11-1 and finished 7th.
2017 Miami was 10-1 and finished 10th.
2015 UNC was 11-1 and finished 10th.
2014 TCU was 10-1 and finished 6th.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I think the issue would be say if 11-1 FSU loses to 9-3 SU and the rest of the ACC falls off a cliff allowing that to happen.

But while we might not end up with multiple 12-0 teams conferences.. They are large enough we could see 4-5 10-2 teams in a few and then one of the 10-2 losses to be 10-3 and have a 10-2 who had beat them in the reg season.

even say 9-3 Clemson with a GA loss over a 10-2 team with no good losses. who knows.

Just remember, there have never been more than 3 one loss teams in the last 50 years of college football. Undefeated teams unquestionably deserve a place among the 12, I don't care what league you play in.

So, if you have one or two undefeated teams, and one or two one-loss teams, that still leaves 8 other places for the guys with 2 losses. Lots of room to find your way into the mix.

 

[IthacaMatt]

It depends on how we look in our Ws and who we lose to. In the CFB Playoff era every non power 1 loss conference CG winner would have made the 12 team playoff in theory.

2021 Okie State was 11-1 and finished 9th.
2019 Utah was 11-1 and finished 11th.
2019 Baylor was 11-1 and finished 7th.
2017 Miami was 10-1 and finished 10th.
2015 UNC was 11-1 and finished 10th.
2014 TCU was 10-1 and finished 6th.

Isn't computer SOS and stats more important than poll ranking?

I know the polls are a minimum bar to keep out some teams, but I have the sense that a lot of other stuff is more important in determining the top 4 teams.

 

[IthacaMatt]

The last few teams in are going to be picked because they will draw ratings.
If Fran goes, 10-2, or 11-1 he will be The talk of the Networks and will get in.

Great point, Bob. Eyeballs matter.

 

[NJneer12]

10-2 this year with no ACC championship game means we definitely won't make it. 10-2 next year with our beast of a schedule, that's different. 2 losses this year means we have no signature wins or we lost games to bad opponents. It's definitely worth the "risk"

This is the same lookout I have.

The easier path this season would be to get to the ACCCG at 10-2 and get that big win.

Next year if they manage 10-2, ACCCG may not be needed. Depends on who and how the losses are.