Some observations thus far

[billsin01]

So anytime you take a look at a team this early in the season there are really certain things we know -- things that have happened, things we've seen in the first 9 games -- and then a whole bunch of questions that will determine what the ceiling or floor of the team is.

So to start with what we've seen:

This team is bad -- right now at least -- on offense
I had a whole section here on basic numbers (which I still think are pretty much ok to determine how an offense is functioning) and some of the more advanced metrics (possessions and offensive rating), but honestly, I'm not sure the discussion of the numbers here really matters. I mean, any stat that has Chuckwu and Sidibe close to or better than Battle through 9 games is insane to take as gospel. Yes, the former two are 'efficient' in a way, but they are generally pretty bad offensive players at this point and Battle, while he's been up and down, is a key part of almost any offense we generate.

I digress. The bottom line is this: We don't score enough. We are 243rd in the country in points scored and we've basically played no one (have you seen the list of teams Oregon has beaten other than us? Ouch). Whatever our numbers were last year, they at least included all of our tough opponents and the NCAA. We are behind the pace we were on last year in terms of ppg. That makes no sense.

So what'the problem? Well, certainly having Frank, Carey and HW injured preseason didn't help. It could also be a bit of a small sample size issue (I would at least argue we have plenty of reason to believe we can improve significantly offensively). And some of it could be by design to an extent -- playing deliberately is obviously not horrible strategy when you have the potential to be a high-end defensive team.

But ultimately my primary concern is two factors: 1. We don't run much of an offense and 2. We don't push the ball. I'll get to no. 2 next and tackle number 1 here.

Our offense is a lot of high ball screens with some occasional action off ball with the guy on the wing running off a screen and then circling back out. The high ball screens are OK in theory but rarely have the desired effect as Chuckwu's man completely leaves him up top and the remaining defender guards two at once b/c Chuckwu is a minimal threat in the middle and the ball-handler, now dealing with two defenders and moving in the opposite direction, is unlikely to hit the man on the opposite wing. The back-pick on the wing is fine, again in theory, but we're not that great a shooting team and since we really don't hit that guy on the initial cut, most of what opens up (if anything) is a long jumper where the player is catching the ball moving away from the basket.

People here hate Dakich, and I get it, but I thought he made a criticism I don't hear enough of JB: namely that we never get the ball to the post -- high or low. The weird part of this is we actually have some relatively interesting options here. Dolezaj at the high post is a threat to shoot, pass or potentially even drive on a rare occasion. Brissett his a handful down low and Frank and Tyus almost always have size advantages over their defenders (not to mention both have an assortment of little leaners and runners that could be tough to stop. Regardless, no inside/out action means a ton of standing around.

Finally, we don't have guys that excel at creating in the halfcourt -- we're 252nd in assists and that's after two pretty good passing games in northeastern and G'town. Battle is dangerous in transition and does a solid job creating for himself, but he almost never finds an open teammate. He averages 2 assists/game, which is up for him over last year while his usage rate is down, but it's still pretty minimal. Hughes is not a guy who's going to put it on the floor and find a teammate. frank is a good passer but has trouble drawing help by beating his man 1-on-1 and obviously Chuckwu is giving you very little in general on offense. Brissett is a tough matchup and has made some nice passes (the pass to Battle for the three vs. Cornell was a really nice play), but he struggles so much around the basket that really hurts.

Jalen Carey is THE x factor for this group
I'm not sure what the ceiling of this team is -- we can discuss in the 'what we don't know section' -- but what I do know is that we play much, much faster with Carey on the floor. There has been a ton of debate on here about tempo (as well as 'settling for threes', which is sort of a pointless debate b/c all of college basketball, and the nba for that matter, settles for threes. it's what the game is ... but I digress). JB himself has noted this and I think he sees it as an imperative particularly b/c of how mediocre to poor we are in the halfcourt.

Regardless, far too often we get guys grabbing rebounds and wrestling them like Chris Farley in the 'fat guy in a little coat' scene from tommy boy. We do the same thing on steals most of the time. When Carey's in the game, this doesn't happen -- he moves quickly and passes ahead at any opportunity. Love it.

The other aspect of Carey's game that makes it unique is his ability to break a defender down in the halfcourt. Oshae can occasionally break his man down, Battle is OK as well, but Carey is hard to stay in front of and he passes the ball well too. Think that can be a big factor for us going forward.

We don't do 'basic' offensive things very often
We rarely enter the ball to the post. We rarely set that high ball screen with a player who can pop for a jumper or catch the ball cutting down the lane and do something with it. We don't often have great spacing on the cut down the lane as the wing on the far side makes it easy for one defender to guard two guys. We actually played pretty well against Northeastern's (overmatched) zone but even there we didn't use Dolezaj at the FT line very often, and we rarely ever attempt to play a high/low game at all with Dolezaj feeding the low post (one of the few times I've seen this, Dolezaj threw a pretty bounce pass vs. Northeastern to Chuckwu for a dunk).

It's odd watching this team b/c they do an awful lot right on the defensive end but struggle to do similar things on the other end.

On the bright side ...

Injuries have hurt and our health should, theoretically improve
No need to belabor this point but at least Frank got to the basket a couple times vs. G'town and Sidibe has actually looked better the last couple times out. Carey looks healthy and at least Chuckwu gets a week to try and heal up (we also have a bit of depth here if Sidibe is playing better and Dolezaj can at least handle the 5 for stretches).

We have pieces, so theoretically we should improve
It's an interesting crew of athletes, right? Hughes has struggled a bit at times defensively, but he has quick hands (he's opportunistic at times in the zone) and he's basically had one no-show (Cornell) and a couple of uneven games in NYC, but basically he's played pretty well and been a productive offensive player (even while struggling in NYC). We've seen Dolezaj play well -- he's struggled a bit this year but I'd like to see us get him more involved offensively b/c we know he has ability there. Battle and Brissett have their flaws as top players, but they're both doing their thing and producing. Chuckwu is still a 7'2" center in a zone and he can occasionally catch and finish on offense. Carey is a player. Frank has to be better but he can play. Buddy ... we'll see but the kid should be able to shoot and that could help at some point. A healthy Sidibe would be a big plus as well. As an aside I like that he really wants the ball as he cuts down the center of the lane twoard the basket. Hope we reward him with a couple of feeds on those -- thought we had a couple opps vs. G'town but didn't get him the ball. Ultimately, we should be better as the season wears on.

We're 7-2 and in the back end of the top 25
Could be worse.

Questions for the next couple months

Was the G'town game a watershed moment?
The strangest thing about watching the Georgetown game was that while the offense was enduring an absolutely abysmal shooting game in the first half, they actually moved the ball fairly well and generated quite a few open looks. I'm somewhat ambivalent about the 'settle for threes' argument -- there is some logic to it, but it's also how the game is played in large part these days -- but really I'm not sure it applies here. Our threes were good looks -- outside of Buddy's inexplicable jack.

But we got a lot of good looks. That continued in the second half and g'town, while it played well and did some things to push us, really stayed in that game in large part b/c Govan is a stud who made tough shots, they somehow found guy no one has ever seen who drained three threes without hitting the rim and we missed at least 8 great looks from three in the first half (even if we make two of those it's a different game).

But ultimately we actually wound up playing at a pretty solid pace, shooting decently overall (not so much from three, but we recovered from the putrid start) getting a win against a decent opponent. That game led into a week off, before a game we should win against ODU. We do that, get to 8-2 and that sets up a huge game vs. UB.

Always hard to say without the benefit of hindsight, but I wouldn't be shocked if we play a little better from this point forward.

Will the whole be greater than the sum of the parts?
Mentioned earlier that this team actually has some pretty good pieces. If I were to tell you, blindly, that JB has a team with a veteran SG who had scored 20 ppg in ACC play as a soph, a senior PG who was OK on offense and good on D, a 7'2" center with a little depth at the position, a couple of forwards with some length and athleticism who were capable scorers and some intriguing depth and positional flexibility -- you'd think that team would be at a minimum a fringe top 25 team all year and a decent bet for a top 4 tourney seed.

That hasn't happened, but it should. Will be interesting to see if a healthier and/or more confident Frank makes a difference? Or, is he replaced by Carey and we look like a different team (albeit likely absorbing some freshman mistakes along the way)? Or do we see a little more cohesiveness that brings the best out of some of the complementary pieces like Marek and Sidibe? Does Sidibe's health improve and we see more production from him? Lots of questions but they all tie to the central point that a team needs to function as a team whereas right now we just look and feel like five guys are always trying to figure something out on the floor together (see all of JB's crazy substitutions in the first half of the G'town game, for example).

Can our defense key some of our improvement?
In fairness, after a miserable start that included bad performances defensively against Morehead, UConn and Oregon, we seem to have improved defensively. Prior to G'town we had held three of four opponents to scores in the 50s and the fourth was maybe our best defensive performance against a solid Ohio State team on the road (62 points on 33% shooting from the floor and 27% from three). Thought the defense was pretty decent vs. G'town too but they got a boost with those huge threes in the second half (one from Blair and three from the kid they apparently found in the lockerroom and dusted off) and some really tough makes from a great player in Govan. Anyway, JB's teams are always defense-first and ideally we can get to the point with this group.

Can we pick up the pace?
JB has mentioned this himself and while some debate it, we can't survive the regular season (we can re-visit in the postseason when we face teams that haven't really seen our zone) running what we call a half-court offense all game and trying to grind out wins consistently. If we want to be off the bubble permanently, we have to score more and play faster. Carey is the guy I point to on that -- I get the sense we'll see him playing 25 minutes in a bunch of games and trying to get this team moving.

I don't know ... it will certainly be interesting to watch.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Can we pick up the pace?
JB has mentioned this himself and while some debate it, we can't survive the regular season running what we call a half-court offense all game and trying to grind out wins consistently. If we want to be off the bubble permanently, we have to score more and play faster. Carey is the guy I point to on that -- I get the sense we'll see him playing 25 minutes in a bunch of games and trying to get this team moving.

The problem is that JB ignores the zone's influence on tempo. Carey in the lineup can only affect pace to the extent that our zone forces quick shots or turnovers - mostly against bad teams. Well-coached teams, especially ones with a talent disadvantage, will be smart enough to take all 30 seconds of the shot clock making safe passes and ball reversals. When that happens JB needs to counter with that new 2-2-1 press on every made basket. Otherwise we'll continue to be at the mercy of the other team's preferences.

 

[SoBristol]

Very comprehensive.

The basics, for me, are (1) we need Frank Howard healthy. He is our best top of the zone defender (leading in , steals, playing only 5 games) and the only player we have who creates for others at any rate above the bare minimum. Frank needs to get into the paint as he did last season. And (2) we need Chukwu in the game for defense. He will never be a factor on the high pick/roll as you pointed out; he isn't going to be a factor in the post. But Dolezaj did not get stronger or add much to his game -- he is scoring 3.4 points, under 3 rebounds/game -- and he will contribute but no way can he hold up against ACC centers other than in spot duty. Same pretty much with Sidibe, though possibly he is limited post-surgery and will get better. We need Chukwu for at least the 27 minutes/game he was playing last season.

There are limits on how much this team can run (other than after steals). Chukwu doesn't get the ball out fast after a rebound, and we need Brissett to focus on the boards. When forced to play fast (2H vs Georgetown), they put up 50 points in a half. Not expecting that success every time, but it proved the concept of getting the ball into the front court and looking for shots earlier on the clock.

I think Hughes has been everything we could have expected; same for Carey, who will get more comfortable and cut back on his mistakes. Carey is averaging under 2 assists and a little more than 2 turnovers -- so there is plenty of room for improvement. Both of these two help with the pace we need to play.

It isn't going to be the smoothest run, but let's see how we do against a very good UB team.

 

[IthacaMatt]

So anytime you take a look at a team this early in the season there are really certain things we know -- things that have happened, things we've seen in the first 9 games -- and then a whole bunch of questions that will determine what the ceiling or floor of the team is.

So to start with what we've seen:

This team is bad -- right now at least -- on offense
I had a whole section here on basic numbers (which I still think are pretty much ok to determine how an offense is functioning) and some of the more advanced metrics (possessions and offensive rating), but honestly, I'm not sure the discussion of the numbers here really matters. I mean, any stat that has Chuckwu and Sidibe close to or better than Battle through 9 games is insane to take as gospel. Yes, the former two are 'efficient' in a way, but they are generally pretty bad offensive players at this point and Battle, while he's been up and down, is a key part of almost any offense we generate.

I digress. The bottom line is this: We don't score enough. We are 243rd in the country in points scored and we've basically played no one (have you seen the list of teams Oregon has beaten other than us? Ouch). Whatever our numbers were last year, they at least included all of our tough opponents and the NCAA. We are behind the pace we were on last year in terms of ppg. That makes no sense.

So what'the problem? Well, certainly having Frank, Carey and HW injured preseason didn't help. It could also be a bit of a small sample size issue (I would at least argue we have plenty of reason to believe we can improve significantly offensively). And some of it could be by design to an extent -- playing deliberately is obviously not horrible strategy when you have the potential to be a high-end defensive team.

But ultimately my primary concern is two factors: 1. We don't run much of an offense and 2. We don't push the ball. I'll get to no. 2 next and tackle number 1 here.

Our offense is a lot of high ball screens with some occasional action off ball with the guy on the wing running off a screen and then circling back out. The high ball screens are OK in theory but rarely have the desired effect as Chuckwu's man completely leaves him up top and the remaining defender guards two at once b/c Chuckwu is a minimal threat in the middle and the ball-handler, now dealing with two defenders and moving in the opposite direction, is unlikely to hit the man on the opposite wing. The back-pick on the wing is fine, again in theory, but we're not that great a shooting team and since we really don't hit that guy on the initial cut, most of what opens up (if anything) is a long jumper where the player is catching the ball moving away from the basket.

People here hate Dakich, and I get it, but I thought he made a criticism I don't hear enough of JB: namely that we never get the ball to the post -- high or low. The weird part of this is we actually have some relatively interesting options here. Dolezaj at the high post is a threat to shoot, pass or potentially even drive on a rare occasion. Brissett his a handful down low and Frank and Tyus almost always have size advantages over their defenders (not to mention both have an assortment of little leaners and runners that could be tough to stop. Regardless, no inside/out action means a ton of standing around.

Finally, we don't have guys that excel at creating in the halfcourt -- we're 252nd in assists and that's after two pretty good passing games in northeastern and G'town. Battle is dangerous in transition and does a solid job creating for himself, but he almost never finds an open teammate. He averages 2 assists/game, which is up for him over last year while his usage rate is down, but it's still pretty minimal. Hughes is not a guy who's going to put it on the floor and find a teammate. frank is a good passer but has trouble drawing help by beating his man 1-on-1 and obviously Chuckwu is giving you very little in general on offense. Brissett is a tough matchup and has made some nice passes (the pass to Battle for the three vs. Cornell was a really nice play), but he struggles so much around the basket that really hurts.

Jalen Carey is THE x factor for this group
I'm not sure what the ceiling of this team is -- we can discuss in the 'what we don't know section' -- but what I do know is that we play much, much faster with Carey on the floor. There has been a ton of debate on here about tempo (as well as 'settling for threes', which is sort of a pointless debate b/c all of college basketball, and the nba for that matter, settles for threes. it's what the game is ... but I digress). JB himself has noted this and I think he sees it as an imperative particularly b/c of how mediocre to poor we are in the halfcourt.

Regardless, far too often we get guys grabbing rebounds and wrestling them like Chris Farley in the 'fat guy in a little coat' scene from tommy boy. We do the same thing on steals most of the time. When Carey's in the game, this doesn't happen -- he moves quickly and passes ahead at any opportunity. Love it.

The other aspect of Carey's game that makes it unique is his ability to break a defender down in the halfcourt. Oshae can occasionally break his man down, Battle is OK as well, but Carey is hard to stay in front of and he passes the ball well too. Think that can be a big factor for us going forward.

We don't do 'basic' offensive things very often
We rarely enter the ball to the post. We rarely set that high ball screen with a player who can pop for a jumper or catch the ball cutting down the lane and do something with it. We don't often have great spacing on the cut down the lane as the wing on the far side makes it easy for one defender to guard two guys. We actually played pretty well against Northeastern's (overmatched) zone but even there we didn't use Dolezaj at the FT line very often, and we rarely ever attempt to play a high/low game at all with Dolezaj feeding the low post (one of the few times I've seen this, Dolezaj threw a pretty bounce pass vs. Northeastern to Chuckwu for a dunk).

It's odd watching this team b/c they do an awful lot right on the defensive end but struggle to do similar things on the other end.

On the bright side ...

Injuries have hurt and our health should, theoretically improve
No need to belabor this point but at least Frank got to the basket a couple times vs. G'town and Sidibe has actually looked better the last couple times out. Carey looks healthy and at least Chuckwu gets a week to try and heal up (we also have a bit of depth here if Sidibe is playing better and Dolezaj can at least handle the 5 for stretches).

We have pieces, so theoretically we should improve
It's an interesting crew of athletes, right? Hughes has struggled a bit at times defensively, but he has quick hands (he's opportunistic at times in the zone) and he's basically had one no-show (Cornell) and a couple of uneven games in NYC, but basically he's played pretty well and been a productive offensive player (even while struggling in NYC). We've seen Dolezaj play well -- he's struggled a bit this year but I'd like to see us get him more involved offensively b/c we know he has ability there. Battle and Brissett have their flaws as top players, but they're both doing their thing and producing. Chuckwu is still a 7'2" center in a zone and he can occasionally catch and finish on offense. Carey is a player. Frank has to be better but he can play. Buddy ... we'll see but the kid should be able to shoot and that could help at some point. A healthy Sidibe would be a big plus as well. As an aside I like that he really wants the ball as he cuts down the center of the lane twoard the basket. Hope we reward him with a couple of feeds on those -- thought we had a couple opps vs. G'town but didn't get him the ball. Ultimately, we should be better as the season wears on.

We're 7-2 and in the back end of the top 25
Could be worse.

Questions for the next couple months

Was the G'town game a watershed moment?
The strangest thing about watching the Georgetown game was that while the offense was enduring an absolutely abysmal shooting game in the first half, they actually moved the ball fairly well and generated quite a few open looks. I'm somewhat ambivalent about the 'settle for threes' argument -- there is some logic to it, but it's also how the game is played in large part these days -- but really I'm not sure it applies here. Our threes were good looks -- outside of Buddy's inexplicable jack.

But we got a lot of good looks. That continued in the second half and g'town, while it played well and did some things to push us, really stayed in that game in large part b/c Govan is a stud who made tough shots, they somehow found guy no one has ever seen who drained three threes without hitting the rim and we missed at least 8 great looks from three in the first half (even if we make two of those it's a different game).

But ultimately we actually wound up playing at a pretty solid pace, shooting decently overall (not so much from three, but we recovered from the putrid start) getting a win against a decent opponent. That game led into a week off, before a game we should win against ODU. We do that, get to 8-2 and that sets up a huge game vs. UB.

Always hard to say without the benefit of hindsight, but I wouldn't be shocked if we play a little better from this point forward.

Will the whole be greater than the sum of the parts?
Mentioned earlier that this team actually has some pretty good pieces. If I were to tell you, blindly, that JB has a team with a veteran SG who had scored 20 ppg in ACC play as a soph, a senior PG who was OK on offense and good on D, a 7'2" center with a little depth at the position, a couple of forwards with some length and athleticism who were capable scorers and some intriguing depth and positional flexibility -- you'd think that team would be at a minimum a fringe top 25 team all year and a decent bet for a top 4 tourney seed.

That hasn't happened, but it should. Will be interesting to see if a healthier and/or more confident Frank makes a difference? Or, is he replaced by Carey and we look like a different team (albeit likely absorbing some freshman mistakes along the way)? Or do we see a little more cohesiveness that brings the best out of some of the complementary pieces like Marek and Sidibe? Does Sidibe's health improve and we see more production from him? Lots of questions but they all tie to the central point that a team needs to function as a team whereas right now we just look and feel like five guys are always trying to figure something out on the floor together (see all of JB's crazy substitutions in the first half of the G'town game, for example).

Can our defense key some of our improvement?
In fairness, after a miserable start that included bad performances defensively against Morehead, UConn and Oregon, we seem to have improved defensively. Prior to G'town we had held three of four opponents to scores in the 50s and the fourth was maybe our best defensive performance against a solid Ohio State team on the road (62 points on 33% shooting from the floor and 27% from three). Thought the defense was pretty decent vs. G'town too but they got a boost with those huge threes in the second half (one from Blair and three from the kid they apparently found in the lockerroom and dusted off) and some really tough makes from a great player in Govan. Anyway, JB's teams are always defense-first and ideally we can get to the point with this group.

Can we pick up the pace?
JB has mentioned this himself and while some debate it, we can't survive the regular season (we can re-visit in the postseason when we face teams that haven't really seen our zone) running what we call a half-court offense all game and trying to grind out wins consistently. If we want to be off the bubble permanently, we have to score more and play faster. Carey is the guy I point to on that -- I get the sense we'll see him playing 25 minutes in a bunch of games and trying to get this team moving.

I don't know ... it will certainly be interesting to watch.

Terrific post. Very thoughtful and detailed analysis. I agree with almost everything you say here.

One thing I will add about the discussion of "settling" for 3's versus "That's how the game is played today": An early 3 without good ball movement is not the same thing as taking a 3 on the secondary break, or after there has been penetration into lane, making the defense adjust, and then kicking to the open shooter.

What little offense we do run consists of only about 5 sets, and you are absolutely right, there is very little reason that we do not use the entry pass to the post, or to the foul line for high-low action, just like people try to do against us in the zone.

I think what Boeheim wants the team to do is have Tyus, Oshae and Frank drive the lane and either finish, get fouled or kick it out. THEN take the 3 and you'll be in the flow. I agree with him that if we start inside out, then we have enough talent to be able to make this offense work, especially if we try to run more on turnovers at the top of the zone.

I also like that we are pressing more proactively this year, too. In certain games, that has created turnovers that led to runs. We need to keep doing that in the ACC.

 

[newmexicuse]

Terrific overall post, my one disagreement is on your X-Factor. Carey will help or not intermittently, that is what one should expect from a frosh. It is unrealistic to think his play should make or break our season. There will be the games where he is effective and the game in which it will be otherwise. It will be up to Jimmy to get him more minutes when he is helping our cause.

The real x-factor is plain and simple. It is our three point shooting. We do not have a good enough interior game to fall back on when we are cold from the line. You can only expect so much from Ty and Oshae on drives, especially as we get into ACC schedule and the talent levels. Keeping inline with the three point shooting being the x-factor, if you reduce that to one player, that player would have to be Buddy. So far, he has not looked ready. The raw stroke is there. He will be an effective player, will that happen this season ? If so, there could be a great role for him to get some minutes when others are cold. Jimmy tried that exact strategy in the GTown game. I loved what Jimmy tried, that game but Buddy wasn't up to the task, maybe next time he will be.

Our D will keep us close in almost every game. If we have enough games where we make 35 to 40%+ from the trey line we will maintain our ranking and finally get off the bubble. If we shoot poorly or erratically it will again be a tense selection sunday.

 

[billsin01]

The problem is that JB ignores the zone's influence on tempo. Carey in the lineup can only affect pace to the extent that our zone forces quick shots or turnovers - mostly against bad teams. Well-coached teams, especially ones with a talent disadvantage, will be smart enough to take all 30 seconds of the shot clock making safe passes and ball reversals. When that happens JB needs to counter with that new 2-2-1 press on every made basket. Otherwise we'll continue to be at the mercy of the other team's preferences.

Absolutely true overall -- you're never going to pile up points if teams struggle to get shots off before there is 5 seconds on the clock. That said, we can play faster on our end, we can push after rebounds, we can gamble at times in the zone with traps and really emphasizing getting into passing lanes. I mean we won't see the up and down game we saw in the late 80s but we've been top 30 or better in steals for the past five or six years. Those should lead to more early offense opportunities than they do.

 

[billsin01]

Terrific overall post, my one disagreement is on your X-Factor. Carey will help or not intermittently, that is what one should expect from a frosh. It is unrealistic to think his play should make or break our season. There will be the games where he is effective and the game in which it will be otherwise. It will be up to Jimmy to get him more minutes when he is helping our cause.

The real x-factor is plain and simple. It is our three point shooting. We do not have a good enough interior game to fall back on when we are cold from the line. You can only expect so much from Ty and Oshae on drives, especially as we get into ACC schedule and the talent levels. Keeping inline with the three point shooting being the x-factor, if you reduce that to one player, that player would have to be Buddy. So far, he has not looked ready. The raw stroke is there. He will be an effective player, will that happen this season ? If so, there could be a great role for him to get some minutes when others are cold. Jimmy tried that exact strategy in the GTown game. I loved what Jimmy tried, that game but Buddy wasn't up to the task, maybe next time he will be.

Our D will keep us close in almost every game. If we have enough games where we make 35 to 40%+ from the trey line we will maintain our ranking and finally get off the bubble. If we shoot poorly or erratically it will again be a tense selection sunday.

Pretty strong argument -- I guess I was thinking x factor more in terms of personnel than general themes/trends. But it's a good point. I don't really think we'll see Buddy much b/c I don't know that he's really ready to be out there. Who knows but, you're right, making threes vs. missing too many of them is going to be a huge storyline from here on out.

 

[billsin01]

Very comprehensive.

The basics, for me, are (1) we need Frank Howard healthy. He is our best top of the zone defender (leading in , steals, playing only 5 games) and the only player we have who creates for others at any rate above the bare minimum. Frank needs to get into the paint as he did last season. And (2) we need Chukwu in the game for defense. He will never be a factor on the high pick/roll as you pointed out; he isn't going to be a factor in the post. But Dolezaj did not get stronger or add much to his game -- he is scoring 3.4 points, under 3 rebounds/game -- and he will contribute but no way can he hold up against ACC centers other than in spot duty. Same pretty much with Sidibe, though possibly he is limited post-surgery and will get better. We need Chukwu for at least the 27 minutes/game he was playing last season.

There are limits on how much this team can run (other than after steals). Chukwu doesn't get the ball out fast after a rebound, and we need Brissett to focus on the boards. When forced to play fast (2H vs Georgetown), they put up 50 points in a half. Not expecting that success every time, but it proved the concept of getting the ball into the front court and looking for shots earlier on the clock.

I think Hughes has been everything we could have expected; same for Carey, who will get more comfortable and cut back on his mistakes. Carey is averaging under 2 assists and a little more than 2 turnovers -- so there is plenty of room for improvement. Both of these two help with the pace we need to play.

It isn't going to be the smoothest run, but let's see how we do against a very good UB team.

Yup -- agreed on all fronts. Just to clarify in G'town I really thought they did a nice job playing faster most of the game as opposed to just the second half. Sounds weird but I actually thought they moved the ball decently and got decent looks in the first half -- they just made literally next to nothing.

I don't think the question is fast break vs. no fast break as much as it's, get the ball up the court, get into some kind of action, keep the ball moving and get some player movement. Literally just specifically tempo and sense of purpose. I feel like offensively, and I know it's mostly anecdotal, we do a ton of standing around and swinging the ball aimlessly around the outside and then running that high ball screen that really does very little to put pressure on the defense. Don't know that we're realistically see anything different for most of the year, but simply have to do better than that if we want to reach our potential.

 

[billsin01]

Terrific post. Very thoughtful and detailed analysis. I agree with almost everything you say here.

One thing I will add about the discussion of "settling" for 3's versus "That's how the game is played today": An early 3 without good ball movement is not the same thing as taking a 3 on the secondary break, or after there has been penetration into lane, making the defense adjust, and then kicking to the open shooter.

What little offense we do run consists of only about 5 sets, and you are absolutely right, there is very little reason that we do not use the entry pass to the post, or to the foul line for high-low action, just like people try to do against us in the zone.

I think what Boeheim wants the team to do is have Tyus, Oshae and Frank drive the lane and either finish, get fouled or kick it out. THEN take the 3 and you'll be in the flow. I agree with him that if we start inside out, then we have enough talent to be able to make this offense work, especially if we try to run more on turnovers at the top of the zone.

I also like that we are pressing more proactively this year, too. In certain games, that has created turnovers that led to runs. We need to keep doing that in the ACC.

Agree especially on the taking a contested three with no real ball movement. Those are bad shots. One thing that hurts, and I don't remember if I mentioned this or not, is that Battle still struggles to drive and kick. Not sure if that's all on him or if we don't slide to open spots very well, but he's not a great passer. He did a little more of that late in the year last year so hopefully it's there but we need to tap into it. Time will tell.

 

[JrodCuse]

I think our defensive strategy with the press is what a lot of the announcers are mentioning. Make them take 5-7 seconds bringing the ball up court and now they have 25ish seconds to get a play off instead of the full 30. It shortens the shot clock for the opposing team which, in turn, helps our defense.

The problem with this in NYC was both teams just 100% abused our press and were constantly having 3 on 2's or 3 on 1's. That I would say is the coaches fault for not adjusting the defense to sit back and make them come to us. They also both shot an insane % from 3 in those games.

If we can shorten the shotclock on the defensive side of things I think that will help a lot moving forward, especially if our offense can get back to being average.

 

[upperdeck]

we dont score because we shoot poorly and dont rebound.. no rebounds so less fast breaks and no rebounds means no put backs.. everything else with the offense starts with the poor shooting.. you only control the quality of the shots, some games its been bad but most games its been fine. we struggle to make layups so anything else we miss is not a surprise.

 

[rrlbees]

Absolutely true overall -- you're never going to pile up points if teams struggle to get shots off before there is 5 seconds on the clock. That said, we can play faster on our end, we can push after rebounds, we can gamble at times in the zone with traps and really emphasizing getting into passing lanes. I mean we won't see the up and down game we saw in the late 80s but we've been top 30 or better in steals for the past five or six years. Those should lead to more early offense opportunities than they do.

we don't run much after rebounds because we usually send our guards to the boards because we don't have glass eating bigs.

 

[upperdeck]

you cant run if you cant outlet the ball.

frank hasnt played well on offense but he has on D in limited time. those top of the zone TOs lead to easy pts too and about all we will get until we can get rebounds with like Bees says keeping everyone home.

 

[CardiacCuse]

this team is like a rubix cube that doesnt have the proper # of colors to put it together properly.

Chukwu/Sidibe inhibit the offense. I still think the team should pass them the ball more in the post/lobs etc - but it just doesn't happen. also, on defense, they fall asleep too often - they are just too slow of thought to be effective, oftentimes. the baskets they do give up are just really bad and should be preventable. and they seem to get called for barely touching opponents - i think they'd be better in man to man - as their spatial awareness seems to be an issue. in man to man they would just have to track the center they are guarding. chukwu's 7'2" is an asset in the center of the zone but too often he fails to act quick enough to use his height effectively - unfortunately he's just not a basketball player. sidibe is still dealing with the knee issues i think...can't be sure...but he seems to always get the short end of the stick out on court, for whatever reason.
dolezaj @ center cannot handle the defensive side of the game but he is okay with the ball and passing. i think his non-central role on the team is wearing on his confidence - he came into the season like gangbusters but didn't play and now he is scared again. I dont like him @ center. actually hate him there against any team with size a la ODU/GTOWN/Buffalo etc.

Hughes - he's enigmatic. I like his attitude and demeanor. I like his hustle to block shots and when he shoots with swagger on the 3's. (noticed he often doesnt stay vertical on his shots and fades/twists on his 3's) . But I'm not sure he is really a good fit as a forward in the 2/3 zone. I feel like his best position might be shooting guard but with tyus there, he is at the 3. and on rebounding, im not sure it is his best use - the team has been getting outrebounded a lot and they are one of the tallest longest teams in the country - if not the longest - which really doesnt make a lot of sense. Hughes should be a starter for this team but I don't like him as a forward and the backcourt spots are taken.

Brissett - maybe teams are scouting him better now? IDK but he doesn't really seem to be the same player he was the last part of last season. I see a look on his face like he is uncomfortable out there. he's had issues with shooting and scoring and now isn't really allowed to shoot 3's as much as he wanted to early in the season. I think maybe he thought this year would be much easier than it has been and he's going through a bit of a rude awakening at the moment. whatever the case, his confidence is low. I think he will figure it out - but he isnt looking like a player that will be gone to the NBA after this year at the moment. JB said he would be insane to play Brissett at the 5. But why? Dolly is too weak, chewy.sidibe are too raw offensively - a lineup of carey, howard, battle, brissett, hughes - would not have a problem scoring. against a team with a govan or bol bol it wouldn't work -but against a team with no inside threats on that level i dont see why it couldn't be at least tried.

Howard- seems to be finally getting his legs back but still way too lackadaisical - i don't get it. did the team not get the memo that scrapping 110% every minute was the only reason they made sweet 16 last year? is it too early to care for these guys? all they care about is march/tourney time? are they upset about lack of nba mock draft rumors?
I'm not a fan of the slow down game he plays but when they ran the ball up the court faster last couple of games it didn't really lead to much, either. hopefully he keeps improving. otherwise that leg injury was seriously bad luck for him and the team cuz it seems to have submarined the team to this point.

Carey - I am huge fan of his style of play. I want him to have the green light but I understand why the coaches want him to be more of a distributor out there - there's a bunch of scorers/shooters who should be out there taking the shots. he was poor in the second half vs buffalo but he's been a spark out there and i hope he keeps pushing and gets a longer leash out there. I could see him being hugely improved by the time march rolls around, i just hope he stays a big part in the rotation and gets enough minutes to contribute.

the rotation - seems in the first halves in the last 2 games when the squad is being rotated more - the team has been doing better. in the second halves when the rotation shrinks the team has given up leads, waned, lost etc. (though in the OSU game it was the reverse)maybe the players play better in the first half cuz they know playing time is more up for grabs but relax more in the second cuz the rotation is more settled? also, in these recent losses the coaches seem to have misjudged a few things and the team has lost a few winnable games down the stretch. I wonder if JB really wants it too much maybe with his son there and that maybe that dynamic is constipating things somehow? idk just speculating. buddy not acclimating well cannot be a positive for JB/the team - even if it is just a subconscious thing, maybe it is having an impact somehow.

passing up open shots/3s - the team has to work too hard to get open looks to not take them when they get them. maybe the coaches dont want to shoot 30 3's a game but it seems when battle, brissett or anyone else passes up an open shot/3 it usually ends up in a worse shot/miss. gotta just let it fly when you are open, imo b/c open shots are not growing on this team's tree.

if they are playing a big team that is good defensively on the inside - they need to shoot 3's. period.

assists - only 7 assists vs buffalo??! when you have a big senior-laden team you are playing that is disciplined on defense you have to beat them with passing/movement not one on one plays - it wasnt working vs odu either. they've gotta find a way to create offense through passing/cutting but not sure it is in their DNA. I really thought the northeastern game with 20 assists was the turning point and the team would rely more on trying to pass and get assists but against big teams who play good d, it is still an issue to create those plays. i'm not sure what the answer is but having centers like chukwu and sidibe in pickand roll does not help. i would run a brissett or even dolzaj or battle out there in pick and rolls before them - the picker needs to be an offensive threat - at least able to catch and pass.

pressing - i really wish the team was a bit deeper and had another center and they played a press more - seems the team would be good in a more freewheeling, frenetic style - but there are issues with that too...i.e. giving up easy scores. but with a 3rd center that would be 15 foul back there plus dolly.

the offense - i think the players are just not free enough out there. i think lot of the players on the team would benefit from a run and gun style of offense and that the careful proscribed rules for offense for players like brissett, battle, chuckwu, carey, sidibe, etc are causing them to be in their heads too much. i dont know the answer to this - just an observation that their performance seems to be highly linked to emotion and sense of freedom on the court. at the same time, without the rules of offense, they would be making a lot of headscratching plays then too. no easy answers despite many capable offensive options. it is an enigma.


IDK - it just seems like there are negatives associated with trying to solve the different issues on them and every potential solution would create another problemno easy solutions to be found...but it is frustrating b/c the team clearly has talent and is capable. it is weird to see a team seem to be less than the collective sum of the parts. hopefully the team gels and gets a lot better. there is a long way to go.

 

[SoBeCuse]

you cant run if you cant outlet the ball.

frank hasnt played well on offense but he has on D in limited time. those top of the zone TOs lead to easy pts too and about all we will get until we can get rebounds with like Bees says keeping everyone home.

Carey could come back to the ball, get it from one of the bigs, and GO. Move. There are TONS of teams who do this nightly with faster guards and aren’t necessarily running a UNC fastbreak. Of course we gotta go get the ball and rebound for this but still. Get the ball and GO for crying out loud. Somebody.

 

[syrBossHogg]

I think we'll play better than expected in conference play and put ourselves in a good spot to make the tourney comfortable. I also think Boeheim needs to look in the mirror and change up a few things so that long term we're not always near the bubble line.

 

[OrangeDW]

you cant run if you cant outlet the ball.

frank hasnt played well on offense but he has on D in limited time. those top of the zone TOs lead to easy pts too and about all we will get until we can get rebounds with like Bees says keeping everyone home.

Why can’t we outlet the ball? These guys play for Syracuse. It’s really not that advanced of a skill to at least be average at.

 

[billsin01]

Why can’t we outlet the ball? These guys play for Syracuse. It’s really not that advanced of a skill to at least be average at.

Can we add enter the ball to the post to the list of things we somehow can’t do even if we want to?

 

[FrancoPizza]

we dont score because we shoot poorly and dont rebound.. no rebounds so less fast breaks and no rebounds means no put backs.. everything else with the offense starts with the poor shooting.. you only control the quality of the shots, some games its been bad but most games its been fine. we struggle to make layups so anything else we miss is not a surprise.

Jimmy is that you?

 

[tbonezone]

coaches job is to analyze and exploit matchups. height ,speed, strength or shooting . is that so hard ?

 

[CousCuse]

coaches job is to analyze and exploit matchups. height ,speed, strength or shooting . is that so hard ?

You should go into coaching, you can make a 7 figure income and it's easy as pie.

 

[tbonezone]

and at the end of the day it's just a game. entertainment. or you can contribute to society. i'm ok.

 

[CardiacCuse]

observations after arkansas state game:

hard to take too much from that game as Ark State is not a powerhouse team and they are SHORT.

When this SYR team can dominantly use its length to get rebounds, blocks, steals etc it is very hard to beat. Unfortunately, a lot of the losses this year have been against teams that are long and big or tough enough to not let that happen. Bol, Govan, even Perkins, and ODU had a couple 7 footers - and those are the teams they lost to. Driving into the lane on those teams is always going to be dicey - especially when the 3s arent falling or being respected and the big men cannot make them pay. I think on the coaching/strategy side, the team needs another option beyond either driving or shooting outside vs teams that SYR cannot impose its length on - what will the approach be when a team can take drives away???

Interesting that after the Buffalo loss JB said that this team is not a running team - but then vs ARK sT - they pushed the ball hard every time they got the ball. Even without Carey out there, this tactic worked very well and got some easy buckets and wide open 3s - seems this strategy is a keeper, imo. I know Ark St is not great defensively but when you put up 82 (2 off the season-high) and your PG goes 1-6 it shows that it is a good offensive approach. Easily could've been in the 90s or higher in scoring this game, imo. "Push the ball and shoot as soon as you get an open shot" seems like it will work for this team.

Hughes was on fire for most of the game - really locked in. But one thing i noticed in the second half he got a rebound and because he was going too quickly, he dribbled into the back of a teammate and got a Turnover. Then JB was really talking animated to him after that about the play. I noticed after that he missed like every shot he took. Every player is different. Maybe he is the type that responds poorly to direct instruction/criticism during games? he seems pretty mentally strong and solid out there - just couldn't help connect all of his subsequent misses to JB getting on him about that turnover.

Braswell looks like a player to me. He just does all of the little things well. good passer (which the team can really use more of), good shooter, can finish on the break, etc. he's very thin but I kinda wish he was in the rotation more at the moment cuz I think he can help this team - maybe against taller teams? IDK but he seems to be as good as the other freshmen, imo. Against big physical teams he might not fit but I could see him helping this season if he gets the chance.

Dolejaz starting - in order to help the offense makes sense - especially against shorter centers. He still did have 2 assists in 16 minutes - just didn't really work this game too well. but solid idea.

Chukwu - against shorter teams he is a monster. He had enough of a height advantage vs Ark St that he was able to impose himself on the game. Hopefully he can trend up and do more of that against bigger teams, too. noticed JB went crazy when Chukwu had a post-up that went in and out - would be huge for the team if they could post up chukwu and get some scores - i think if they could design some open jumpers from the foul line and in, he could knock them down - he is a good free throw shooter - currently shooting a higher FT % than oshae, jalen, buddy and bourama...so no reason why he couldnt shoot some shots from 10 feet and in if he can get some separation in the flow of the offense.

 

[CousCuse]

and at the end of the day it's just a game. entertainment. or you can contribute to society. i'm ok.

Entertainment is a contribution to society.

 

[tbonezone]

pxoxrxn is entertainment to many as well. rather be a pornstar than a head coach.
doesn't pay as well but when you're getting screwed over it's double time.
i imagine when you strip down your life priorities like a roof, heat, food and water. a job , a car and road to drive on and some security for your family.watching hoops is pretty low.