Some thoughts (Pt. 1) | Syracusefan.com

Some thoughts (Pt. 1)

billsin01

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Another season in the books and plenty of time to digest what will happen next season, but figured it's worth taking a minute to put together a post of random thoughts on Red, the returning players, the departed players and generally what to think of the future of this program (I'm intentionally avoiding the JB discussion b/c it is what it is). So with that ...

Looking back

Appreciating Jesse Edwards

I have to believe we won't see either of these guys in orange next season (though I truly hope I'm wrong) so I wanted to just take a minute to appreciate what these guys did this year since I truly believe it will be lost a bit in the disappointment of another mediocre season.

I tend to break Syracuse history into three eras -- the era before I was a fan (let's say pre-86) where I can't really comment with any sort of context, the era from the mid-80s to the early 90s when we not only had an incredible wealth of talent but all the talent stayed for 3-4 years; and everything after 95-96 when we switched to zone full time. You could probably add another era in here for the past 7, 8, 9 seasons when we've struggled but whatever. Anyway, point is, since the start of the 95-96 season we've had exactly three seasons wherein a player averaged a double-double in pts/rbs. The other two were Rick and Carmelo. So Jesse's ~15 ppg and 10.3 rpg is easily one of the most prolific seasons we've had from a big in the past 28 seasons. If you wanted to take it further and go all the way back to 75-76 (48 seasons) the only additional seasons would be three DC seasons and Billy O's junior year. That's the list for nearly 50 years. That's a damn good year.

Not for nothing, the only seasons since 75-76 that are significantly better than Jesse's 2.8 blocks/gm are three Etan seasons (the man was a monster), Darryl Watkins in 05-06 (3.5) and DC in 88-89 (3.3).

I'll always be a bit disappointed b/c I feel like Jesse left a little bit of meat on the bone offensively, but the man had a really, really impressive season.

Appreciating Judah
The further we get away from it the more we'll realize how good freshman year Judah was -- late game struggles aside. Consider: on 12/10, my man was 2 for 16 from three. The rest of the way, he shot 36% from three. The last 12 games of the season, he shot .467 ... and we'll never think of him as a shooter. But that really encapsulates how unique his season was. We've had plenty of players who've improved significantly year over year -- Hak, Damone Brown, Rautins, Rony, Waiters, Fab, etc. -- but Judah got so much better as the year went on. He just kept adding things to his game. He got to the rim and got to the line and got to his spots from day 1. But he became a really strong defensive player (getting skinny to get around screens, living in passing lanes, pressuring the ball), dramatically improved as a facilitator (averaged close to 5 assists/game in conference -- never would have seen that after the first few games of the year), drew an incredible amount of fouls, limited turnovers (pretty close to 2:1 assist/TO ratio). Kid had a fantastic frosh season.

Joe, Symir, JBA
All these guys had limitations to be sure, but worth noting that JBA helped us win a few games early with his defense, energy, and passing; Symir struggled a bit this season but still was a decent option off the bench, and Joe -- despite hurting us at times -- won us a few games with his offense and, in particular, his shooting. There's always going to be a lot of roster turnover and none of these guys was leading us to a title next year, but it's worth pointing out that a ton of experience is walking out the door with all five players. Will be a challenge for Red if we don't hit the portal one or two more times this off-season if all five of these guys are gone and we're trying to figure it out with what is currently on the roster.

Looking ahead
So that brings us to what lies ahead. Start with a couple Red topics and finish with some observations of guys returning.

Red will be under a lot of pressure from Day 1
It goes without saying that this fan base is starved for a winner. That's pressure enough. But add in that this team potentially loses two HUGE pieces in Edwards and Mintz and easily it's third best player (for better or for worse) in Girard and you've got a lot more questions than answers. And, let's not forget, that the first time we lose a game we 'shouldn't' lose or have a 3-game losing streak this board and talk radio will be flooded with folks saying this should have been a national search ... well, that's more fuel. Lastly, if Red does struggle for a year or two and we're not killing it in lax or football, then Wildhack could be on the hot seat as well. All of that feels to me like Red will have to win early and won't have the leeway for a 4- or 5-year plan to get us back on track. I doubt Red minds the pressure but it's at least worth noting.

How creative will Red and the staff get over the next several seasons?
So we all know JB, by his own admission, wasn't an eternal spring of youthful energy and we can surmise from our recruiting and on-court results the past five or six years in particular (you could go back 9 years, honestly), that this had a negative impact on the program. But with the transfer portal creating unprecedented player movement, NIL stuff, $$$ pouring into the SEC and B1G hoops programs, etc., a more robust and attractive G League option, the world of college hoops is unrecognizable from even, I don't know, 5 years ago? I've seen a lot of people talk about roster management and I agree, that's a big part of things. But I'm not sure these coaches will have the luxury of putting together rosters with an eye toward 2 or 3 years down the road. Barring changes in NIL/transfer stuff, I really think there will be significant roster turnover every single season. The staffs that are the most creative in blending traditional recruiting, spreading around NIL money, and hammering the transfer portal are going to be the most successful. Are you better off landing two big-time freshman or two big transfers? How do you manage NIL stuff? How much do you bother trying to develop talent vs. giving it a year and moving in a different direction if it doesn't work out? Don't know the answers to those questions but it will be interesting to watch.

Zone or man? Up-tempo?
We all have questions on the style we're likely to play but I really think the answers are more simple than we sometimes think. Good talent, for one, helps a lot of stuff, at least if the players are bought in. Secondly -- good m2m defenses often have a ton of zone principles (switching, blitzing pick-and-roles, secondary and tertiary slides, good communication). There are some teams that play a pretty true man, but most teams look more like a version of an old john cheney amoeba zone these days than they do a m2m team like we used to play in the 80s and 90s. Offensively, I hope we see more sets but honestly improved movement -- player and ball -- would be such a welcome change. Watching UConn was painful, but I give them credit -- very little ball-stopping, constant player movement, good, crisp execution. They weren't running a lot of complicated or exciting stuff, but they were constantly moving, playing together, and executing really well. I honestly believe if we are moving the ball better and getting better player movement on offense and playing a defense that dictates a bit more of the action defensively, that alone could make us more dangerous next year.

Back with a part II with some thoughts on returning players tomorrow-ish.
 
TLDR. Reality is if you don’t have a strong NIL strategy with deep pockets none of the other stuff matters
I look at it this way. If you do a net present value of the earnings of the top players, their professional careers will far outweigh their NIL deals. For them, development is far more important. Don't get me wrong, players will want to make some money, but they are going to want to be developed and given the opportunity to compete in the NCAA Tournament to increase their marketability. And, the coaches and the administration have to create an environment that will keep players excited about playing for your school.

Look at a school like Kentucky. Plenty of NIL money and player perks. Always have a top recruiting class and loaded with NBA players. NCAAT championships in the past 10 years? Zero. If you were a Kentucky fan, would you rather have the #1 recruiting class or an NCAA Championship?
 
I look at it this way. If you do a net present value of the earnings of the top players, their professional careers will far outweigh their NIL deals. For them, development is far more important. Don't get me wrong, players will want to make some money, but they are going to want to be developed and given the opportunity to compete in the NCAA Tournament to increase their marketability. And, the coaches and the administration have to create an environment that will keep players excited about playing for your school.

Look at a school like Kentucky. Plenty of NIL money and player perks. Always have a top recruiting class and loaded with NBA players. NCAAT championships in the past 10 years? Zero. If you were a Kentucky fan, would you rather have the #1 recruiting class or an NCAA Championship?
Since we are not UK fans, it really doesn't matter. But if you ask me if I want Yukon's 5 championships versus all the joys of being a Syracuse fan for the 47 years of JAB's regime, I'll take the chips in a heartbeat. I've enjoyed being a Syracuse fan but winning generally trumps everything else.
 
Another season in the books and plenty of time to digest what will happen next season, but figured it's worth taking a minute to put together a post of random thoughts on Red, the returning players, the departed players and generally what to think of the future of this program (I'm intentionally avoiding the JB discussion b/c it is what it is). So with that ...

Looking back

Appreciating Jesse Edwards

I have to believe we won't see either of these guys in orange next season (though I truly hope I'm wrong) so I wanted to just take a minute to appreciate what these guys did this year since I truly believe it will be lost a bit in the disappointment of another mediocre season.

I tend to break Syracuse history into three eras -- the era before I was a fan (let's say pre-86) where I can't really comment with any sort of context, the era from the mid-80s to the early 90s when we not only had an incredible wealth of talent but all the talent stayed for 3-4 years; and everything after 95-96 when we switched to zone full time. You could probably add another era in here for the past 7, 8, 9 seasons when we've struggled but whatever. Anyway, point is, since the start of the 95-96 season we've had exactly three seasons wherein a player averaged a double-double in pts/rbs. The other two were Rick and Carmelo. So Jesse's ~15 ppg and 10.3 rpg is easily one of the most prolific seasons we've had from a big in the past 28 seasons. If you wanted to take it further and go all the way back to 75-76 (48 seasons) the only additional seasons would be three DC seasons and Billy O's junior year. That's the list for nearly 50 years. That's a damn good year.

Not for nothing, the only seasons since 75-76 that are significantly better than Jesse's 2.8 blocks/gm are three Etan seasons (the man was a monster), Darryl Watkins in 05-06 (3.5) and DC in 88-89 (3.3).

I'll always be a bit disappointed b/c I feel like Jesse left a little bit of meat on the bone offensively, but the man had a really, really impressive season.

Appreciating Judah
The further we get away from it the more we'll realize how good freshman year Judah was -- late game struggles aside. Consider: on 12/10, my man was 2 for 16 from three. The rest of the way, he shot 36% from three. The last 12 games of the season, he shot .467 ... and we'll never think of him as a shooter. But that really encapsulates how unique his season was. We've had plenty of players who've improved significantly year over year -- Hak, Damone Brown, Rautins, Rony, Waiters, Fab, etc. -- but Judah got so much better as the year went on. He just kept adding things to his game. He got to the rim and got to the line and got to his spots from day 1. But he became a really strong defensive player (getting skinny to get around screens, living in passing lanes, pressuring the ball), dramatically improved as a facilitator (averaged close to 5 assists/game in conference -- never would have seen that after the first few games of the year), drew an incredible amount of fouls, limited turnovers (pretty close to 2:1 assist/TO ratio). Kid had a fantastic frosh season.

Joe, Symir, JBA
All these guys had limitations to be sure, but worth noting that JBA helped us win a few games early with his defense, energy, and passing; Symir struggled a bit this season but still was a decent option off the bench, and Joe -- despite hurting us at times -- won us a few games with his offense and, in particular, his shooting. There's always going to be a lot of roster turnover and none of these guys was leading us to a title next year, but it's worth pointing out that a ton of experience is walking out the door with all five players. Will be a challenge for Red if we don't hit the portal one or two more times this off-season if all five of these guys are gone and we're trying to figure it out with what is currently on the roster.

Looking ahead
So that brings us to what lies ahead. Start with a couple Red topics and finish with some observations of guys returning.

Red will be under a lot of pressure from Day 1
It goes without saying that this fan base is starved for a winner. That's pressure enough. But add in that this team potentially loses two HUGE pieces in Edwards and Mintz and easily it's third best player (for better or for worse) in Girard and you've got a lot more questions than answers. And, let's not forget, that the first time we lose a game we 'shouldn't' lose or have a 3-game losing streak this board and talk radio will be flooded with folks saying this should have been a national search ... well, that's more fuel. Lastly, if Red does struggle for a year or two and we're not killing it in lax or football, then Wildhack could be on the hot seat as well. All of that feels to me like Red will have to win early and won't have the leeway for a 4- or 5-year plan to get us back on track. I doubt Red minds the pressure but it's at least worth noting.

How creative will Red and the staff get over the next several seasons?
So we all know JB, by his own admission, wasn't an eternal spring of youthful energy and we can surmise from our recruiting and on-court results the past five or six years in particular (you could go back 9 years, honestly), that this had a negative impact on the program. But with the transfer portal creating unprecedented player movement, NIL stuff, $$$ pouring into the SEC and B1G hoops programs, etc., a more robust and attractive G League option, the world of college hoops is unrecognizable from even, I don't know, 5 years ago? I've seen a lot of people talk about roster management and I agree, that's a big part of things. But I'm not sure these coaches will have the luxury of putting together rosters with an eye toward 2 or 3 years down the road. Barring changes in NIL/transfer stuff, I really think there will be significant roster turnover every single season. The staffs that are the most creative in blending traditional recruiting, spreading around NIL money, and hammering the transfer portal are going to be the most successful. Are you better off landing two big-time freshman or two big transfers? How do you manage NIL stuff? How much do you bother trying to develop talent vs. giving it a year and moving in a different direction if it doesn't work out? Don't know the answers to those questions but it will be interesting to watch.

Zone or man? Up-tempo?
We all have questions on the style we're likely to play but I really think the answers are more simple than we sometimes think. Good talent, for one, helps a lot of stuff, at least if the players are bought in. Secondly -- good m2m defenses often have a ton of zone principles (switching, blitzing pick-and-roles, secondary and tertiary slides, good communication). There are some teams that play a pretty true man, but most teams look more like a version of an old john cheney amoeba zone these days than they do a m2m team like we used to play in the 80s and 90s. Offensively, I hope we see more sets but honestly improved movement -- player and ball -- would be such a welcome change. Watching UConn was painful, but I give them credit -- very little ball-stopping, constant player movement, good, crisp execution. They weren't running a lot of complicated or exciting stuff, but they were constantly moving, playing together, and executing really well. I honestly believe if we are moving the ball better and getting better player movement on offense and playing a defense that dictates a bit more of the action defensively, that alone could make us more dangerous next year.

Back with a part II with some thoughts on returning players tomorrow-ish.


Really good post!

A couple reaction comments:

Yes, Jesse put up a year that ranks among our all-time 10 best years for centers. We are not going to come close to replacing that production with any combination of portal, bench payers and new recruits.

Judah did improve enormously during the season. I would say, perhaps, that Jonny Flynn year two was a similar rise to stardom, maybe even moreso.

JBA and Symir did do really good things to turn this team around in December / January, when we were coming off the rails. JBA's passing from the four position was good for 3 or 4 assists a game for about 3 weeks in January, and then suddenly, Symir began playing much faster and pushing the tempo when he came in. So I agree that both of those guys are legit Division 1 basketball players, I thank them for their service to SU, and I wish them well in their last season, if they so choose.

Girard was always a bad fit for our program, just like Paul Harris was. Girard should have gone to Notre Dame and Harris should have gone to Pitt, and they both would have had better careers.

The biggest blows to the program have been reputational these past few weeks. We either have to fix that fast or it will sink the program before it can get back on track.
 
all good points per usual. as for Jesse coach repeatedly said he couldn't handle physical players. so while his numbers were spectacular there's that.
judah was a spark plug for the offense and i thought symir should have seen more pt. down the stretch JB went with joe and judah for major minutes.
i've talked about the red hire before so pass. he will be under pressure.
lastly and this is one of my main issues the past several years.
Zone and M2M.
it's not an either or proposition. you switch to the defense which negates your opponents strengths. often several times a game. JB's insistent charade we lacked the skill to play MAN d went on for far too long. that was a bogus excuse for" i don't want to coach it anymore" . that simple. that stupid.
 
Another season in the books and plenty of time to digest what will happen next season, but figured it's worth taking a minute to put together a post of random thoughts on Red, the returning players, the departed players and generally what to think of the future of this program (I'm intentionally avoiding the JB discussion b/c it is what it is). So with that ...

Looking back

Appreciating Jesse Edwards

I have to believe we won't see either of these guys in orange next season (though I truly hope I'm wrong) so I wanted to just take a minute to appreciate what these guys did this year since I truly believe it will be lost a bit in the disappointment of another mediocre season.

I tend to break Syracuse history into three eras -- the era before I was a fan (let's say pre-86) where I can't really comment with any sort of context, the era from the mid-80s to the early 90s when we not only had an incredible wealth of talent but all the talent stayed for 3-4 years; and everything after 95-96 when we switched to zone full time. You could probably add another era in here for the past 7, 8, 9 seasons when we've struggled but whatever. Anyway, point is, since the start of the 95-96 season we've had exactly three seasons wherein a player averaged a double-double in pts/rbs. The other two were Rick and Carmelo. So Jesse's ~15 ppg and 10.3 rpg is easily one of the most prolific seasons we've had from a big in the past 28 seasons. If you wanted to take it further and go all the way back to 75-76 (48 seasons) the only additional seasons would be three DC seasons and Billy O's junior year. That's the list for nearly 50 years. That's a damn good year.

Not for nothing, the only seasons since 75-76 that are significantly better than Jesse's 2.8 blocks/gm are three Etan seasons (the man was a monster), Darryl Watkins in 05-06 (3.5) and DC in 88-89 (3.3).

I'll always be a bit disappointed b/c I feel like Jesse left a little bit of meat on the bone offensively, but the man had a really, really impressive season.

Appreciating Judah
The further we get away from it the more we'll realize how good freshman year Judah was -- late game struggles aside. Consider: on 12/10, my man was 2 for 16 from three. The rest of the way, he shot 36% from three. The last 12 games of the season, he shot .467 ... and we'll never think of him as a shooter. But that really encapsulates how unique his season was. We've had plenty of players who've improved significantly year over year -- Hak, Damone Brown, Rautins, Rony, Waiters, Fab, etc. -- but Judah got so much better as the year went on. He just kept adding things to his game. He got to the rim and got to the line and got to his spots from day 1. But he became a really strong defensive player (getting skinny to get around screens, living in passing lanes, pressuring the ball), dramatically improved as a facilitator (averaged close to 5 assists/game in conference -- never would have seen that after the first few games of the year), drew an incredible amount of fouls, limited turnovers (pretty close to 2:1 assist/TO ratio). Kid had a fantastic frosh season.

Joe, Symir, JBA
All these guys had limitations to be sure, but worth noting that JBA helped us win a few games early with his defense, energy, and passing; Symir struggled a bit this season but still was a decent option off the bench, and Joe -- despite hurting us at times -- won us a few games with his offense and, in particular, his shooting. There's always going to be a lot of roster turnover and none of these guys was leading us to a title next year, but it's worth pointing out that a ton of experience is walking out the door with all five players. Will be a challenge for Red if we don't hit the portal one or two more times this off-season if all five of these guys are gone and we're trying to figure it out with what is currently on the roster.

Looking ahead
So that brings us to what lies ahead. Start with a couple Red topics and finish with some observations of guys returning.

Red will be under a lot of pressure from Day 1
It goes without saying that this fan base is starved for a winner. That's pressure enough. But add in that this team potentially loses two HUGE pieces in Edwards and Mintz and easily it's third best player (for better or for worse) in Girard and you've got a lot more questions than answers. And, let's not forget, that the first time we lose a game we 'shouldn't' lose or have a 3-game losing streak this board and talk radio will be flooded with folks saying this should have been a national search ... well, that's more fuel. Lastly, if Red does struggle for a year or two and we're not killing it in lax or football, then Wildhack could be on the hot seat as well. All of that feels to me like Red will have to win early and won't have the leeway for a 4- or 5-year plan to get us back on track. I doubt Red minds the pressure but it's at least worth noting.

How creative will Red and the staff get over the next several seasons?
So we all know JB, by his own admission, wasn't an eternal spring of youthful energy and we can surmise from our recruiting and on-court results the past five or six years in particular (you could go back 9 years, honestly), that this had a negative impact on the program. But with the transfer portal creating unprecedented player movement, NIL stuff, $$$ pouring into the SEC and B1G hoops programs, etc., a more robust and attractive G League option, the world of college hoops is unrecognizable from even, I don't know, 5 years ago? I've seen a lot of people talk about roster management and I agree, that's a big part of things. But I'm not sure these coaches will have the luxury of putting together rosters with an eye toward 2 or 3 years down the road. Barring changes in NIL/transfer stuff, I really think there will be significant roster turnover every single season. The staffs that are the most creative in blending traditional recruiting, spreading around NIL money, and hammering the transfer portal are going to be the most successful. Are you better off landing two big-time freshman or two big transfers? How do you manage NIL stuff? How much do you bother trying to develop talent vs. giving it a year and moving in a different direction if it doesn't work out? Don't know the answers to those questions but it will be interesting to watch.

Zone or man? Up-tempo?
We all have questions on the style we're likely to play but I really think the answers are more simple than we sometimes think. Good talent, for one, helps a lot of stuff, at least if the players are bought in. Secondly -- good m2m defenses often have a ton of zone principles (switching, blitzing pick-and-roles, secondary and tertiary slides, good communication). There are some teams that play a pretty true man, but most teams look more like a version of an old john cheney amoeba zone these days than they do a m2m team like we used to play in the 80s and 90s. Offensively, I hope we see more sets but honestly improved movement -- player and ball -- would be such a welcome change. Watching UConn was painful, but I give them credit -- very little ball-stopping, constant player movement, good, crisp execution. They weren't running a lot of complicated or exciting stuff, but they were constantly moving, playing together, and executing really well. I honestly believe if we are moving the ball better and getting better player movement on offense and playing a defense that dictates a bit more of the action defensively, that alone could make us more dangerous next year.

Back with a part II with some thoughts on returning players tomorrow-ish.
I think Girard deserved more recognition than you gave him. To lump him in with JBA and Torrance, two guys who played sparingly, is just wrong. I wonder how JAB would react to your disrespect of a guy who gave his all, stayed around for four years, etc?
 
I think Girard deserved more recognition than you gave him. To lump him in with JBA and Torrance, two guys who played sparingly, is just wrong. I wonder how JAB would react to your disrespect of a guy who gave his all, stayed around for four years, etc?
No disrespect intended whatsoever. JGIII had a really solid season and put together a couple really good back-to-back years. His scoring was indispensable. Having said that, I was singling out Edwards and Mintz b/c i really felt they had exceptional years obscured by our generally mediocre/poor results overall.

I mean, Mintz improved a ton over the course of the season (not all that common) and put together a year that compares pretty well with any non-Carmelo freshman season we've had in the 30-ish years. Edwards could be better offensively, but we rarely have guys who average double-doubles and very few guys have blocked more shots than he did this season. Those are really exceptional years worth calling out.

My point on mentioning all five guys leaving was simply that they all contributed in real ways to the success we had -- not without some flaws, but nevertheless it will be interesting to see how Red tries to replace all that walked out the door.
 
all good points per usual. as for Jesse coach repeatedly said he couldn't handle physical players. so while his numbers were spectacular there's that.
judah was a spark plug for the offense and i thought symir should have seen more pt. down the stretch JB went with joe and judah for major minutes.
i've talked about the red hire before so pass. he will be under pressure.
lastly and this is one of my main issues the past several years.
Zone and M2M.
it's not an either or proposition. you switch to the defense which negates your opponents strengths. often several times a game. JB's insistent charade we lacked the skill to play MAN d went on for far too long. that was a bogus excuse for" i don't want to coach it anymore" . that simple. that stupid.
All good points. It's funny, was watching the Cuse/Olkahoma sweet 16 game from '03 the other day. OU's hesitancy to just hoist threes is so different than watching the game today with most teams putting 4 or 5 shooters on the floor all game and playing a bunch of 5-out type sets. Some of it was Kueth's length and hustle and our generally strong defensive team, but it was weird to watch how hesitant they were to just bomb away. These days, it's really not even enough to force teams further from the basket. If a player has his feet set and a clean look from 25, you are in trouble most nights.

Anyway, point is, i thought JB's decision to go all-zone in 95-96 made sense for a long time, but the game shifted radically the past 10 years but our defense essentially remained identical (we play our wings much higher and we played some stretches of 1-3-1 I guess, but those aren't big tweaks). We also veered away from putting a ton of length and athleticism up top. I give him credit for the initial strategy, but I just don't understand how we recruited and how little we adjusted the zone the last five years or so.

Again, I'm not super concerned with zone vs. man so much as I am with being able to use a couple different looks and if we are in a zone, putting something out there that is funkier than a traditional 2-3 that dares folks to shoot and allows teams to catch-and-shoot instead of at least forcing them to move their feet.
 
teams playing JB knew exactly what they're facing every trip down court.

you need to be able throw a changeup pitch to keep the offense honest.


Sun Tzu

“mystify, mislead, and surprise the enemy”​

― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
tags: business, strategy, war
 

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