Syracuse is currently an 8th at-large selection

[Larry]

RPI = 10
SOS = 2
Quality Win = 14

If they beat Colgate and advance in the ACC tournament by beating Virginia then:
Then they are the 5th at-large with RPI, SOS and QW at 7,1,7

If they defeat Virginia but lose to Colgate, then they are 10th at-large with RPI, SOS and QW at 10, 1 19

If they lose both games, then you should start focusing on football for next year!

www.laxpredictions.com
http://www.laxbytes.com/binmenstats18/ncaapb01.htm

 

[upperdeck]

root for Penn to lose in the Ivy and they are out for being under .500
root for ND to lose the first round of the ACC and then to Army and they are out for being under .500
UNC cant jump them
mich/OSU could both lose this week and then in the B10 and they are out for being under .500
you really start to run out of teams.

marq probably loses to Denver to fall under .500 this week

 

[OnlyOrange]

The ACC needs to find a 6th team so they can get the AQ back.

Do we want Albany to win the AE tourney so they don’t take up an at-large bid? Who do we want to win Ivy and Patriot?

 

[JeremyCuse]

The ACC needs to find a 6th team so they can get the AQ back.

Do we want Albany to win the AE tourney so they don’t take up an at-large bid? Who do we want to win Ivy and Patriot?

Albany not winning the AE tourney would be a disaster. For the Ivy either Yale or Cornell winning it is fine. Cornell winning probably makes our numbers look slightly better but either way is fine.

 

[laxsummit]

This is all so confusing but at least Cuse controls their NCAA destiny. Just win

 

[Orangelax]

The ACC needs to find a 6th team so they can get the AQ back.

Do we want Albany to win the AE tourney so they don’t take up an at-large bid? Who do we want to win Ivy and Patriot?

I think we definitely want Albany to win the AE tourney for the reason you mentioned. I personally believe that it works better for us if Loyola wins the Patriot. However, Bucknell is probably also a lock for post season play with wins over Loyola and Yale.

 

[JeremyCuse]

If Fields is done for the year, I would be worried about Albany losing in the AE tournament, without him they are a shadow of the team they are with him. They don't have anyone who can really dodge and their middies can be completely taken out of the game.

 

[JeremyCuse]

I think we definitely want Albany to win the AE tourney for the reason you mentioned. I personally believe that it works better for us if Loyola wins the Patriot. However, Bucknell is probably also a lock for post season play with wins over Loyola and Yale.

Agreed Orangelax, Loyola or Bucknell would be fine. Colgate going on a nice little run would be good to.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Agreed Orangelax, Loyola or Bucknell would be fine. Colgate going on a nice little run would be good to.

Just as long as Colgate's run ends at the end of April.

 

[JeremyCuse]

This is all so confusing but at least Cuse controls their NCAA destiny. Just win

Its the same as college bball season, SU is close to being on the bubble so you don't want conference upsets taking spots away. For the B10 you want Maryland to win the conf tourney and for PSU/Rutty/JHU to keep beating each other up. Right now the B10 is kind of a mess but there likely a 3 bid league.

For SU the America East is the danger zone. Anyone but Albany winning the conf tourney is a disaster. It would steal a bid and if SU loses to Virginia this Friday coupled with a tourney upset we would probably be out. For the Patriot as long as its Loyola or Bucknell were probably fine. Navy is right on the edge of making it which is why Saturdays loss was so devestating. For SU we either need Navy bounced early or to win the Patriot league tourney because that would make our loss look better and probably bounce Bucknell. In reality SU really needs to win Friday now. We win Friday were in, a loss and were probably in big trouble.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Just as long as Colgate's run ends at the end of April.

For sure. On Tuesday Colgate plays Lehigh and Boston U plays Bucknell, root for Colgate and I guess Boston U. The good news is if Bucknell wins they play Navy in the quarters on Fri and if they win they likely knock Navy out of the NCAA tourney.

 

[JeremyCuse]

The more I look at it the more I think Bucknell is probably in with the wins over Loyola and Yale. Probably would be beneficial if they beat Boston U and then beat Navy. That should pit Loyola vs Bucknell in the finals. ND losing to Duke would also help us as there on a huge slide right now and I think if it came down to us vs them SU would get the nod with the head to head win.

 

[kirbivore]

sad that SU lax is at the point of having bubble discussions.

 

[OnlyOrange]

After thinking about it, I think SU needs to win the ACC tourney to guarantee a spot. Too many things that could happen. Leaving the ACC season. 6-0 and 9-5 is a lot better than 8-6. I think Colgate is a pivotal game. If they win the ACC and then drop Colgate that could be disastrous. Could it be a situation where SU is on the bubble, but they win out and they’re looking at a 4/5 seed? I have to think 10-5/6-0 with their SoS gives them an argument for a 4 seed.

I have to think losing to Navy lit a fire under them going into the ACC tournament. Basically, every game here on out is a playoff game for them.

 

[JeremyCuse]

After thinking about it, I think SU needs to win the ACC tourney to guarantee a spot. Too many things that could happen. Leaving the ACC season. 6-0 and 9-5 is a lot better than 8-6. I think Colgate is a pivotal game. If they win the ACC and then drop Colgate that could be disastrous. Could it be a situation where SU is on the bubble, but they win out and they’re looking at a 4/5 seed? I have to think 10-5/6-0 with their SoS gives them an argument for a 4 seed.

I have to think losing to Navy lit a fire under them going into the ACC tournament. Basically, every game here on out is a playoff game for them.

If SU beats Virginia on Friday and loses to Duke there pretty much a lock. If they somehow won the ACC tourney it wouldn't matter if Colgate beat us by 40 we would be a lock.

There are three scenarios where SU could be in trouble.
1. SU loses to UVA and then to Colgate. SU would finish the year 7-7 and is probably a 95% favorite to be out of the tournament.

2. SU loses to UVA but beats Colgate to finish 8-6. This is the scenario I fear the most. SU would still have a good argument about making the tournament but they would be on the bubble and depending on how the B10 and Patriot shake out not to mention Albany they could easily be left out.

3. SU beats UVA but loses to Duke or ND in the ACC final and then loses to Colgate. I still think SU is in if this scenario played out but it would be par for the course based on how the year has gone. The win over UVA would give SU another Top 15 RPI win and a 2-0 record vs UVA which would put SU in over them squarely. Think SU would be at 75%+ to be in.

 

[cuseguy]

I think the most likely scenario is SU losing to Virginia (they need this win as much as SU does) and beating Colgate.

So bubble.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OnlyOrange]

Jeremy, if they somehow manage to win out and finish 10-5 do you think they have a 4th seed argument or are we on the road at this point no matter what?

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Jeremy, if they somehow manage to win out and finish 10-5 do you think they have a 4th seed argument or are we on the road at this point no matter what?

If we win out (beat UVA, Duke/ND, and Colgate), we're definitely hosting on Sunday night.

The Top 8 seeds host.

 

[Toga]

Are there any reasonable scenarios where we would play in Albany?

 

[JeremyCuse]

Jeremy, if they somehow manage to win out and finish 10-5 do you think they have a 4th seed argument or are we on the road at this point no matter what?

If we win out we will definitely have a top 8 seed and a home game. If SU won out I could see them anywhere between a 4 and 7 seed depending on what happens around them. Most likely a 4 or 5 seed and an outside shot at a 3 if everything somehow broke right. Yale, Maryland and Duke are probably the top 3 seeds with Albany in sort a limbo situation right now. Loyola could make an argument if they win the Patriot but they don't have a lot of quality wins and are probably looking at ceiling of a 5 seed. If SU were to run the table that would mean two road wins at UVA and two wins vs Duke one on the road and one neutral. The only other threat to a 4 seed at that point would probably be if JHU or RU went on a crazy run to close out the season and won the B10 tourney.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Are there any reasonable scenarios where we would play in Albany?

Many actually. If SU were to lose to UVA but beat Colgate I could easily see Syracuse vs Albany with Albany as a 3 or 4 seed.

 

[laxsummit]

Many actually. If SU were to lose to UVA but beat Colgate I could easily see Syracuse vs Albany with Albany as a 3 or 4 seed.

I believe that Albany without Fields can be beaten by Cuse.

 

[JeremyCuse]

I believe that Albany without Fields can be beaten by Cuse.

I do as well, we would need a better showing at the X but I would like our chances.

 

[OnlyOrange]

I have a feeling we’re gonna have a good two weeks.