Syracuse & Pitt One, Two in ACC Power Poll

[Orangeyes]

Syracuse & Pitt One, Two in ACC Power Poll

 

[jncuse]

Here is an odd thing about the ACC so far. I know we have not been enthralled about conference performance to date. The RPI is not good.

Under KenPom (ranking system much better than the RPI), the ACC has 8 of the top 42 teams in the country. ACC also has 4 other teams in the top 100. Its last 3 teams are 108, 109 and 110 in KenPom. That is actually a pretty strong conference, without too much crap at the bottom.

Under RPI, the ACC only has 3 teams in the top 42 (instead of 8), 7 teams in the top 100 (instead of 12), and 8 teams outside of the top 100 (instead of 3). 6 teams are ranked lower than the lowest ranked team of 110 in KenPom. This actually makes the ACC look like a weak conference.

Its a huge variance between the two ranking systems. Could be a few factors:
1) Perhaps the ACC is getting the short end of the stick in close games, and KP uses scoring margins rather than W/L like the RPI. Basically bad luck.
2) Some conferences get lucky with the schedules, or frankly game the schedules, to inlate the RPI. (The MwC was an example of a conference that went the other way last year -- much better in the RPI vs Ken Pom). The ACC has done the opposite of gaming the system (or opponents have been worse than expected when scheduled)

Luck or gaming, the RPI is underrating the ACC right now.


Last night, I wondered how a system could predict 7 ACC losses for Syracuse when the conference was getting initial bad RPI returns. But these predictions are based on margin based systems like KenPom. If the ACC has 8 of the 42 teams, there will be some really tough games on the road this year.

The implication for the ACC is fairly simple - I don't know if I have ever seen this big a variance at the end of November. But if your a bubble team or even a higher ranked team in the pod seed range, some of your conference wins will be underrated by the committee, and some of your conference losses will be overrated by the committee.

Some will say its still a small sample size and we are not even 25% through the schedule. Its not a correct argument, because from Jan-March conference schools are just playing each other, and we are about 50% through the sample of OOC games. Perhaps the bad "luck" in schedule or results could change in the next month.

Anyway, this would bother me more if we are a bubble level program - which we obviously are not.

 

[Hoo's That]

Syracuse & Pitt One, Two in ACC Power Poll

He forgot to include ND.

 

[edowd26]

He forgot to include ND.

They are #5 on that list.

 

[Hoo's That]

They are #5 on that list.

My mistake!!!!! They forgot Maryland!!!!!

 

[edowd26]

My mistake!!!!! They forgot Maryland!!!!!

B!G team. We've sold the off already. To the tune of 53million. I feel like I just sold a lemon cuz some dude didn't check the CarFax. Your problem now Ohio State.