The 40 and WR’s | Syracusefan.com

The 40 and WR’s

BillSU

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WR’s and the 40, part 1

I have been, over the last year, posting CuseLegacy’s offered recruits, researching their assets per Hudl film and Googling their names to get further information. Physical size is basic but sometimes I come across weight room stats from bench press to vertical jump and if I’m lucky a 40 time.

I was correcting a post I had made about Bryce Cohoon’s 40 PR, (I had it at 4.47 – the correct conversion is 4.44) when I began thinking about the 40 at the combine and how it can change a participants draft status and eventual monetary value if the player runs a great 40 at the NFL Combine.

I believe one thing every SU football fan is interested in is a recruits 40 time, especially a WR or RB. Since it is televised, as are other drills at the NFL Combine, the 40 yard dash time I believe is a favorite of football followers in general.

It was instituted by Paul Brown, the former Cleveland Browns head coach and Bengals founder, because he wanted to determine how fast his players were covering a punt, so he chose 40 yards -- the distance most punts traveled -- as a measuring stick. Little did he know that a 40 time would become such a huge phenomenon and can increase substantially the draft order and monetary value of any player if they run two good 40 times at the NFL Combine.

Think about it: What's the one question every single prospect leaving the NFL Scouting Combine this year will be asked? "What was your forty time?"

Maybe Brown should have patented his idea.

So, I wondered how may current NFL WR’s accumulated the most yardage due to their speed related talent. I Googled and came up with 40 yard times related yardage gained over a four year period from a site called FootballPerspective.com.

I’m unable to copy paste the chart so I will do my best to relate what I have found.

The chart was developed by Chase Stuart a Manhattan corporate lawyer/NFL analyst writer with 15 years of analytics behind him. I am quoting him:

“My sample comprises the 853 wide receivers who ran the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine from 2000 to 2017. All data is publicly available from PFR, via Stathead Football. I then looked at how many receiving yards those players gained in their first four seasons in the NFL.

On average, these 853 players ran the 40-yard dash in 4.51 seconds and gained a total of 678 receiving yards in their first four seasons; this includes the 360 of them who never gained a receiving yard in the NFL. The top three wide receivers by receiving yards over this period [3] were Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, and Anquan Boldin, who ran the 40-yard dash in 4.57, 4.48, and 4.72 seconds, respectively. Strike one for 40-yard dash times mattering. The fastest two players were John Ross and Donte’ Stallworth, who both ran the 40 in 4.22 seconds.

Let’s break down the 40 times into small groups: from 4.22 to 4.24, 4.25 to 4.27, 4.28 to 4.30, and so on. Once we do that, the results are pretty striking.”


40 YD Range # of WR’s AVG REC YDS THRU 4 YRS

4.22 - 4.24___________________2__________________________1,762__________

4.25 - 4.27
___________________2____________________________402__________

4.28 – 4.30__________________13__________________________1,082__________

4.31 – 4.33__________________12__________________________1,607__________

4.34 – 4.36__________________35__________________________1,131__________

4.37 - 4.39________________ _35____________________________906_________

4.40 – 4.42
__________ _____ 69 1,042_______

4.43 – 4.45__________________ 66___________________________ 748_________

4.46 -4.48_________________ __87_______ ____________ 789_________

4.49 – 4.51
__________________153____________________________581________

4.52 - 4.54___________________60____________________________ 631________

4.55 – 4.57_______ _______ 95___________________________ _676_________

4.58 – 4.60__________________ 73____________________________ 492_________

4.61 – 4.63
__________________ 59___________________________ _429_________

4.64 – 4.66__________________ 34___________________________ _323_________

4.67 – 4.69________ ________ 24____________________ _____ 259_________

4.70 – 4.72
__________________ 15____________________________ 485_________

4.73 – 4.75
___________________9______________________________0__________

4.76 – 4.78___________________5______________________________84_________

4.79 – 4.81___________________4_____________________________587_________

4.82 – 4.84___________________1_____________________________ 0__________

It appears, according to this chart, that that the most yardage gained relating to 40 yard speed is first the fastest time of 4.2 which would be obvious since the separation gained by the WR vs the DB is due to the elite speed involved and the graph shows the most yardage, 1,762 of any of the rest.

However since the 40 time is among the fastest ever run only two players are involved

The most yards gained on this chart are the groups which ran a 4.28 – 4.42 gaining 1,082, 1607, 1,131, 906, and 1,042 respectively.

The other elements which allow the best to accrue the yards other than speed are the receiver’s moves, a great quarterback and a team which plays a great passing offense.

Bryce Cohoon, I think, will make a difference in our WR room this coming season running a 4.44. Hopefully we will have a QB who can get the ball to him and the other WR’s on a consistent basis.

A receivers 40 time and great hands are what determines their draft value – they spread the field and make the defense respect the long ball.
 
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Hopefully Cohoon will be in cahoots with the quarterback and catch a lot of long ones.


Dick Vermiel once said that in his coaching career, he's never timed a plyer in less than 4.5, (although, as I recall he said that while doing color on college football, prior to his stint with the Rams).
 

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