SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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When Jacob DeGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz showed up to join Matt Harvey and Zach Wheeler as well as Jeurys Familia to close, I envisioned a starting rotation of the first five guys in some order backed up by Familia forming what I decided to call "The Big Mets Pitching Machine", (based on the The Big Red Machine) and I looked forward to them dominating the National League for the next several years.
Here are some numbers on how the BMPM has functioned these last two years.
Harvey, Wheeler, DeGrom, Syndergaard and Matz have never started five consecutive games in any order. At least one of them have always been on the D/L. The “Big Five” have started 179 of 325 games, (55%). (DeGrom has started 55 games, Syndergaard 37, Harvey and Matz 35 and Wheeler 17.)
The Big Five have a combined won lost record of 60 wins and 68 losses (.468). The entire team is 157-168, (.483). In the games where the Big Five did not get the decision the Mets are 97-100, (.492). I actually prefer to look at all games the starting pitcher started, whether he got the decision or not. The whole purpose of the Win-Loss stat is to determine a team’s chances of winning with each starting pitcher, (nobody cares what a reliever’s W-L record is). The Mets are 12-23 when Harvey starts, 3-7 when Wheeler starts, 29-26 when DeGrom starts, 20-17 when Syndergaard starts and 14-21 when Matz starts. That’s a total of 82-97 when the big Five starts and 75-71 when they don’t. That’s right: it’s not only being unavailable that that has hurt the team: the fill-in guys have a better record than the Big Five even when they are available!
The Big Five have two season ERAs of a combined 3.97, (I have Harvey with 5.78, Wheeler 5.21, DeGrom 3.32, Syndergaard 2.65 and Matz with 4.30). I have the team at 4.27 and the non Big Five pitchers at 4.44, (despite their superior won-lost record).
When I look at a box score, I look at the pitching numbers and check these things: how many hits and walks did they give up and how many runs did they give up? It’s not a perfect fit. I don’t use earned runs because the game is based on all runs and any run scored after what should have bene the third out is considered “unearned”. It still counts. But that means I’m not including players that got on due to errors, hit batsmen, etc. But I still look at the percentage of guys who got on base by either hits or walks and the percentage of those guys that scored. Here are the numbers for the Big 5:
Harvey 185.33 innings pitched (IP) 293 baserunners from hits and walks (BR), 125 runs surrendered (Runs) = 14.23 BR/9 innings, 42.66% scored.
Wheeler 83.33 IP 137 BR 53 runs = 14.29 BR/9 38.69% scored
DeGrom 349.33 IP 417 BR 140 runs = 10.74 BR/9 33.57% scored
Syndergaard 214 IP 243 BR 75 runs = 10.21 BR/9 30.86% scored
Matz 199 IP 262 BR 99 runs = 11.85 BR/9 37.79% scored
“The Big Five”: 1,031 IP 1,352 BR 492 runs = 11.80 BR/9 36.39% scored
The rest of the team : 1,847.67 IP 2,615 BR 978 runs = 12.76 BR/9 37.40% scored
So the Big Five seems to have pitched better than the res tof the staff but somehow have a worst W-L record.
Familia has 57 saves in 62 save opportunities (91.9%). The team had 116 saves so he’s gotten 49% of them. He’s appeared in 104 games and finished 82 of them. His W-L record is 5-6. (As a closer he’s not supposed to win or lose the games). The rest of the team has 30 blown saves in 89 save opportunities, (66.3% saves converted). His ERA is a credible but not dominant 2.99.
Transformers, anyone?
Here are some numbers on how the BMPM has functioned these last two years.
Harvey, Wheeler, DeGrom, Syndergaard and Matz have never started five consecutive games in any order. At least one of them have always been on the D/L. The “Big Five” have started 179 of 325 games, (55%). (DeGrom has started 55 games, Syndergaard 37, Harvey and Matz 35 and Wheeler 17.)
The Big Five have a combined won lost record of 60 wins and 68 losses (.468). The entire team is 157-168, (.483). In the games where the Big Five did not get the decision the Mets are 97-100, (.492). I actually prefer to look at all games the starting pitcher started, whether he got the decision or not. The whole purpose of the Win-Loss stat is to determine a team’s chances of winning with each starting pitcher, (nobody cares what a reliever’s W-L record is). The Mets are 12-23 when Harvey starts, 3-7 when Wheeler starts, 29-26 when DeGrom starts, 20-17 when Syndergaard starts and 14-21 when Matz starts. That’s a total of 82-97 when the big Five starts and 75-71 when they don’t. That’s right: it’s not only being unavailable that that has hurt the team: the fill-in guys have a better record than the Big Five even when they are available!
The Big Five have two season ERAs of a combined 3.97, (I have Harvey with 5.78, Wheeler 5.21, DeGrom 3.32, Syndergaard 2.65 and Matz with 4.30). I have the team at 4.27 and the non Big Five pitchers at 4.44, (despite their superior won-lost record).
When I look at a box score, I look at the pitching numbers and check these things: how many hits and walks did they give up and how many runs did they give up? It’s not a perfect fit. I don’t use earned runs because the game is based on all runs and any run scored after what should have bene the third out is considered “unearned”. It still counts. But that means I’m not including players that got on due to errors, hit batsmen, etc. But I still look at the percentage of guys who got on base by either hits or walks and the percentage of those guys that scored. Here are the numbers for the Big 5:
Harvey 185.33 innings pitched (IP) 293 baserunners from hits and walks (BR), 125 runs surrendered (Runs) = 14.23 BR/9 innings, 42.66% scored.
Wheeler 83.33 IP 137 BR 53 runs = 14.29 BR/9 38.69% scored
DeGrom 349.33 IP 417 BR 140 runs = 10.74 BR/9 33.57% scored
Syndergaard 214 IP 243 BR 75 runs = 10.21 BR/9 30.86% scored
Matz 199 IP 262 BR 99 runs = 11.85 BR/9 37.79% scored
“The Big Five”: 1,031 IP 1,352 BR 492 runs = 11.80 BR/9 36.39% scored
The rest of the team : 1,847.67 IP 2,615 BR 978 runs = 12.76 BR/9 37.40% scored
So the Big Five seems to have pitched better than the res tof the staff but somehow have a worst W-L record.
Familia has 57 saves in 62 save opportunities (91.9%). The team had 116 saves so he’s gotten 49% of them. He’s appeared in 104 games and finished 82 of them. His W-L record is 5-6. (As a closer he’s not supposed to win or lose the games). The rest of the team has 30 blown saves in 89 save opportunities, (66.3% saves converted). His ERA is a credible but not dominant 2.99.
Transformers, anyone?
