The Blip - Last Year and This

[javadoc]

If you believe as I do that last year was a blip, an anomaly in the program's trajectory, then the interesting question is "where do we expect to be this year, with an eye toward what last year would have been without the once-in-a-career mountain of calamities?"

I expect this year to be more like the blip from MCU - the sudden reappearance of things thought lost.

Folks are going to say, wow, what a turnaround, they went from one win to that? It might seem surprising, if you looked only at the records, and couldn't see the program for the team.

7+ wins this year. And a sight not seen in a while - RB's running to daylight.

 

[Toga]

 

[Cuse'91]

So you just blocked out being humiliated by the 2nd worst team in the B1G in the prior year? We failed to reach a bowl before Covid-19 existed.

 

[TheCusian]

So you just blocked out being humiliated by the 2nd worst team in the B1G in the prior year? We failed to reach a bowl before Covid-19 existed.

Yeah, 2019 was a step back. The problem is that people see 2020 as a natural progression downward. I see it as a blip, a weird pandemic inspired year that cost is nothing eligibility wise, etc.

I think if 2020 were a normal year, we’d have had 5-6 wins. Questions would still remain, but without a 1-10 around his neck.

 

[Cuse'91]

Yeah, 2019 was a step back. The problem is that people see 2020 as a natural progression downward. I see it as a blip, a weird pandemic inspired year that cost is nothing eligibility wise, etc.

I think if 2020 were a normal year, we’d have had 5-6 wins. Questions would still remain, but without a 1-10 around his neck.

I mean Covid was a bit of a problem(massive understatement)
But, the staff really failed to provide for some obvious contingencies:
Bad, bad OL and DL depth killed us
Tristan Jackson leaving killed us
No decent backup qb killed us

 

[TheCusian]

I mean Covid was a bit of a problem(massive understatement)
But, the staff really failed to provide for some obvious contingencies:
Bad, bad OL and DL depth killed us
Tristan Jackson leaving killed us
No decent backup qb killed us

I’m with you on depth, esp at QB. It’s hard to put the OL injuries or Tristan leaving on the staff. Plus, weird camp to get any other WR really ready with a new OC.

I just think it’s hard to parse blame for the year, truly and honestly. I don’t think the team was going to be good, but mediocre yes. Not historically awful.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Yeah, 2019 was a step back. The problem is that people see 2020 as a natural progression downward. I see it as a blip, a weird pandemic inspired year that cost is nothing eligibility wise, etc.

I think if 2020 were a normal year, we’d have had 5-6 wins. Questions would still remain, but without a 1-10 around his neck.

I want to be optimistic, I really do. On paper, this team has a lot of experience that we didn't necessarily expect to have, especially on both lines.

I did not like reading that Nate Mink article about last year's team, and then consider the context of what seems like a lot of guys leaving right at the beginning of camp. Plus, we already have an injured offensive lineman.

I feel like either this year, we bounce back and make a bowl, or this team completely falls apart. I hope we get off to a good start, because I feel like this team has a glass jaw.

 

[djorange1989]

The 2019 team had a really really easy schedule and they blew it. They stunk, they didn’t seem to care that much and our momentum from 2018 was gone after the Maryland debacle. Last year had massive challenges, tons of injuries and opt outs but poor recruiting really took us down too. I like the roster we have this year, enough to feel a bowl bid is reasonable. Let’s right this ship

 

[IthacaMatt]

The 2019 team had a really really easy schedule and they blew it. They stunk, they didn’t seem to care that much and our momentum from 2018 was gone after the Maryland debacle. Last year had massive challenges, tons of injuries and opt outs but poor recruiting really took us down too. I like the roster we have this year, enough to feel a bowl bid is reasonable. Let’s right this ship

Between the roster and the schedule, the FLOOR for that team should have been 8 wins. Getting only 5, after that prima donna video series they did was shameful.

 

[TheCusian]

I want to be optimistic, I really do. On paper, this team has a lot of experience that we didn't necessarily expect to have, especially on both lines.

I did not like reading that Nate Mink article about last year's team, and then consider the context of what seems like a lot of guys leaving right at the beginning of camp. Plus, we already have an injured offensive lineman.

I feel like either this year, we bounce back and make a bowl, or this team completely falls apart. I hope we get off to a good start, because I feel like this team has a glass jaw.

That article, for me, made sense given the product on the field. They looked out of it and not dialed in. Is that COVID/BLM/ETC or coaching? I dunno.

I think we’re going bowling. But I’m always positive lol

 

[TheCusian]

Between the roster and the schedule, the FLOOR for that team should have been 8 wins. Getting only 5, after that prima donna video series they did was shameful.

Agreed that it was a bad look in retrospect. But I’m bummed we got rid of the whole preseason series thing. With a little less pride/arrogance, we could still get an inside look.

 

[BrooklynCuse]

It’s the 1st game week and I’m just as optimistic as I always am before the season starts. Looking at the 2 deep I think we can win 8 games. I think we’ll know after this weekend what kind of team we have.

There were some games last year that were just embarrassing so hopefully we don’t see any of that type of play this year

The OL depth is definitely on Dino. There were posters on here 2/3 years ago questioning both lines depth. That was when we had like 25 WR’s and hardly any OL. Roster management hasn’t been one Dino’s strong suites but looks like he corrected the numbers this year.

I say we bounce back with 8 wins

 

[rocklloyd]

Dino needs to get good at a lot of coaching related things. He’s got the press conference portion of his responsibilities mastered. 8 wins this year and we’ll be comparing him and the turnaround to Mac

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Yeah, 2019 was a step back. The problem is that people see 2020 as a natural progression downward. I see it as a blip, a weird pandemic inspired year that cost is nothing eligibility wise, etc.

I think if 2020 were a normal year, we’d have had 5-6 wins. Questions would still remain, but without a 1-10 around his neck.

Was it a blip though? 2018 is really the blip. 2020 was right in line with the other seasons had we played OOC cupcakes.


2016 2-2 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2017 2-2 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2019 3-1 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2020 0-1 OOC and 1-9 ACC

Had we played only 8 ACC games and gone 1-7 it is one game worse. Had we played an FCS and a MAC team we have 2 OOC Ws. Look at our original schedule. Wouldn't we have been right in line with the other seasons?

at BC - we played them close without TD but it was at home. BC had a new HC but beat Duke easily to open last year. (0-0-1)

at Rutgers - they opened last season with a W but it also was the 3rd week of October. (0-0-2)

Colgate - we are winning that. (1-0-2)

at Western Michigan - we are winning that. (2-0-2)

Louisville - Would TD still be healthy and playing? I think being at home makes a difference but we were so bad that game we likely still lose. (2-1-2)

Liberty - we lose still. (2-2-2)

At Clemson - we still lose. (2-3-2)

GA Tech - we beat them pretty easily but it was with TD. Would he be playing? (2-3-3)

at Wake - we still lose. (2-4-3)

NC State - is TD playing? If so then we likely win. We were up 29-20 late 3rd Q without him. That saves us the downing it on 4th down play. (2-4-4)

FSU - they were bad last year. Although they beat up Duke to end the season. I think we most likely win this even without TD. (2-4-5)

at Pitt - we still lose this. (2-5-5)

If we assume that TD still gets hurt then we lose to NC State. (2-6-4). If we assume we can't handle the Rutgers blitz with that make shift OL then we lose that game. (2-7-3). I still think we beat GA Tech even without TD. We turned them over and ran the ball well. (3-7-2). I think we beat FSU too, but let's be conservative and say we lose. (3-8-1).

So if we beat BC on the road with TD to open the season, 2020 looks exactly like 2016 and 2017. We start off decent (3-1), we go 2-2 OOC, our QB gets hurt, we end 2-6 in the ACC and 4-8 overall. That is a copy of 2016 and 2017.

 

[kingtidge]

If you believe as I do that last year was a blip, an anomaly in the program's trajectory, then the interesting question is "where do we expect to be this year, with an eye toward what last year would have been without the once-in-a-career mountain of calamities?"

I expect this year to be more like the blip from MCU - the sudden reappearance of things thought lost.

Folks are going to say, wow, what a turnaround, they went from one win to that? It might seem surprising, if you looked only at the records, and couldn't see the program for the team.

7+ wins this year. And a sight not seen in a while - RB's running to daylight.

Hope you're right.

Alternatively, if we open the season with two losses and to a rebuilding Schady buttgers... things will be sideways immediately and not sure Dino will survive that...

 

[TheCusian]

Was it a blip though? 2018 is really the blip. 2020 was right in line with the other seasons had we played OOC cupcakes.


2016 2-2 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2017 2-2 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2019 3-1 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2020 0-1 OOC and 1-9 ACC

Had we played only 8 ACC games and gone 1-7 it is one game worse. Had we played an FCS and a MAC team we have 2 OOC Ws. Look at our original schedule. Wouldn't we have been right in line with the other seasons?

at BC - we played them close without TD but it was at home. BC had a new HC but beat Duke easily to open last year. (0-0-1)

at Rutgers - they opened last season with a W but it also was the 3rd week of October. (0-0-2)

Colgate - we are winning that. (1-0-2)

at Western Michigan - we are winning that. (2-0-2)

Louisville - Would TD still be healthy and playing? I think being at home makes a difference but we were so bad that game we likely still lose. (2-1-2)

Liberty - we lose still. (2-2-2)

At Clemson - we still lose. (2-3-2)

GA Tech - we beat them pretty easily but it was with TD. Would he be playing? (2-3-3)

at Wake - we still lose. (2-4-3)

NC State - is TD playing? If so then we likely win. We were up 29-20 late 3rd Q without him. That saves us the downing it on 4th down play. (2-4-4)

FSU - they were bad last year. Although they beat up Duke to end the season. I think we most likely win this even without TD. (2-4-5)

at Pitt - we still lose this. (2-5-5)

If we assume that TD still gets hurt then we lose to NC State. (2-6-4). If we assume we can't handle the Rutgers blitz with that make shift OL then we lose that game. (2-7-3). I still think we beat GA Tech even without TD. We turned them over and ran the ball well. (3-7-2). I think we beat FSU too, but let's be conservative and say we lose. (3-8-1).

So if we beat BC on the road with TD to open the season, 2020 looks exactly like 2016 and 2017. We start off decent (3-1), we go 2-2 OOC, our QB gets hurt, we end 2-6 in the ACC and 4-8 overall. That is a copy of 2016 and 2017.

Schedule strength was at it’s nadir in 16 and 17. (I can post the stats again). The 2017 team was a bowl team with a less daunting schedule. 2018 was manageable and hit when we had a senior QB and a freshman S ballhawk, etc.

I think we’ve done this dance before… 2016-2018 there’s a clear progression upwards. SoS masks it a bit, but we were getting better. 2019 was an easier schedule than any of Dino’s and he blew it. 2020 was a throwaway year - bank young kids some ACC experience after turmoil of COVID plus rash of injuries.

I think, and there’s no way of knowing, that last year was a 5-6 win season in a normal year. The ACC teams were mediocre. I don’t know how you can figure who’d beat who with some teams having camp and others not, player opt outs, etc.

(It’s also a different story years 1-2 with a healthy ED all the way through. Looks way more like a clear progression. If I’m picking at Dino it’s QB depth and OL development)

 

[elimunelson]

Dino needs to get good at a lot of coaching related things. He’s got the press conference portion of his responsibilities mastered. 8 wins this year and we’ll be comparing him and the turnaround to Mac

I think he's a great manager of men and the ancillary stuff of being a HC. I need to see evidence that he can outcoach others now and manage a game. These are his guys now. There is zero excuses regarding facilities, etc. The program is at a point where it's competent amongst its peers.

I need to see 6 wins to be convinced things are back to stabilized from the bowl game. otherwise we're just entering the definition of insanity territory

 

[Chip]

Was it a blip though? 2018 is really the blip. 2020 was right in line with the other seasons had we played OOC cupcakes.


2016 2-2 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2017 2-2 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2019 3-1 OOC and 2-6 ACC
2020 0-1 OOC and 1-9 ACC

Had we played only 8 ACC games and gone 1-7 it is one game worse. Had we played an FCS and a MAC team we have 2 OOC Ws. Look at our original schedule. Wouldn't we have been right in line with the other seasons?

at BC - we played them close without TD but it was at home. BC had a new HC but beat Duke easily to open last year. (0-0-1)

at Rutgers - they opened last season with a W but it also was the 3rd week of October. (0-0-2)

Colgate - we are winning that. (1-0-2)

at Western Michigan - we are winning that. (2-0-2)

Louisville - Would TD still be healthy and playing? I think being at home makes a difference but we were so bad that game we likely still lose. (2-1-2)

Liberty - we lose still. (2-2-2)

At Clemson - we still lose. (2-3-2)

GA Tech - we beat them pretty easily but it was with TD. Would he be playing? (2-3-3)

at Wake - we still lose. (2-4-3)

NC State - is TD playing? If so then we likely win. We were up 29-20 late 3rd Q without him. That saves us the downing it on 4th down play. (2-4-4)

FSU - they were bad last year. Although they beat up Duke to end the season. I think we most likely win this even without TD. (2-4-5)

at Pitt - we still lose this. (2-5-5)

If we assume that TD still gets hurt then we lose to NC State. (2-6-4). If we assume we can't handle the Rutgers blitz with that make shift OL then we lose that game. (2-7-3). I still think we beat GA Tech even without TD. We turned them over and ran the ball well. (3-7-2). I think we beat FSU too, but let's be conservative and say we lose. (3-8-1).

So if we beat BC on the road with TD to open the season, 2020 looks exactly like 2016 and 2017. We start off decent (3-1), we go 2-2 OOC, our QB gets hurt, we end 2-6 in the ACC and 4-8 overall. That is a copy of 2016 and 2017.

Agree. Last year was pretty consistent. Dino has won 2 ACC games in every year except 2018 (6 wins) and last year (1 win).

If last year was a normal year instead of us playing @UNC and @ND as ACC games, good chance we get the same 2 wins. And 2 weaker OOC wins.

2018 just shows that the stars need to align for a program like ours.

I'm not expecting 2021 to be 2018. But we need to start winning at least 4 ACC games. That would probably accompany 3 OOC wins if scheduled for success. That's just to be an average to good program that teams have to take seriously, instead of having a bottom feeder reputation.

 

[Pyle]

Blip? Last year was a blimp, as in Hindenburg like blimp. But here's the deal. I'm so over it. Last year doesn't mean a damn thing in 4 more days. Sorry if reposting ads is not allowed, just seems to encapsulate how i'm feeling about this season...Kinda long but worth the watch...

 

[FasterCuse]

I don't think last year was a blip... but I've never wished I could be more wrong about something than this, and I hope I eat a crow dinner on New Years day. 4 more days! LFGOO!

 

[orangenauburn]

Yeah, 2019 was a step back. The problem is that people see 2020 as a natural progression downward. I see it as a blip, a weird pandemic inspired year that cost is nothing eligibility wise, etc.

I think if 2020 were a normal year, we’d have had 5-6 wins. Questions would still remain, but without a 1-10 around his neck.

Hell even 2019 was a bad fumble call away from 6-6.

I think people forgot the hurricane game that year at NC State where we just couldn't get anything going, losing by a score.

Those two games back to back broke that team and season.

2019 should have been 7-5 and a bowl, but bad weather and a bad call did us in.

 

[texascpa]

How is it a blip when we just had the same record within the last 20 years when The Coach that Shall Not be Named was running the show?

 

[orangenauburn]

Last year also had two new coordinator, whom didn't have a spring to implement their new systems, nor close to a healthy roster to practice it thanks to a pandemic.

A position coach who had no chance of success when he was working with less than one full unit.

We lucked out that Tucker and Lutz are the real deal, otherwise RB could have been a disaster.

We played a True Freshmen QB 3rd / 4th stringer out of necessity, who did ok.

We lost two all conference (all American) secondary players early in the year.

I'd say that's a blip of a year.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Success at Syracuse starts and ends with quarterback play. It became P’s undoing and it’s staring Dino in the face. He will die on devito’s hill and that makes me sad. Every successful quarterback that we’ve had here showed moxy and intangibles from the minute they stepped on the field. Expecting a makeover from devito in his fourth season is unrealistic and goes against history. Let’s hope shrader can win the job and be the real deal.

 

[HtownOrange]

If.SU starts a winning trend, everyone will look back at 2020 and say HCDB was wise to use 2020 as a development year that cost nothing.

Obviously, if he fails, he is in trouble. I think the former is what happens.