Let’s talk about COVID and the probabilities of each game being played.
This might be interesting.
I will go through the games one by one.
Friday, September 4th at Boston College
Boston was hit hard. BC has developed a fairly diverse student body. It is a lot different than when it was a glorified commuter school. But the weather should still be hot and the virus should be in hiding. If they can’t play the game on campus, there are lots of other venues to play at. The game is on a Friday. Almost no one else is playing in the Northeast.
Still, this is the first game. BC will be dealing with a lot of students from many areas and it is probable they will have some positive cases to deal with. If things get bad early, they could cancel this game, move it to later in the season (Liberty or a bye date) play it the week after the regular season is supposed to end or just not play it period.
Probability of playing: 85%
Saturday, September 12th at Rutgers
If it was scary traveling to Boston, this will be even more scary. The NY metro area was hit worse than any place on earth and northern NJ was also hit hard. I am sure most of the Rutgers students are from hard hit areas. Kids will have some time to spread the virus around and there will probably be some positive cases on campus by now. Plus, this is an OOC game. It sounds like if games must be canceled, thie first to go will be OOC games. On the positive side, it should still be warm and my gut tells me will will be okay dealing with COVID until at least late October.
Probability of playing: 80%
Saturday, September 19th COLGATE
On the negative side, we know OOC games are not going to be as protected or valued as conference games. If there is a game that doesn’t matter much, this is probably the easiest to lose. Heck, the renovation not even be ready In time for this. But good weather and the strong response to COVID in NYS should allow this game to happen.
Probability of playing: 85%
Saturday, September 26th at Western Michigan
First game the team will definitely have to fly to. This is an OOC game. If campuses are getting shut down by now and things are starting to get ugly, it would be very easy to cancel this game. Michigan was hit hard by COVID but my guess is most of the kids at WMU are upstate kids from areas that didn’t get hit hard by the virus. It is getting colder and WMU is certainly not a warm weather site. But probably still too early to have a big outbreak.
Probability of playing: 75%
Saturday, October 3rd LOUISVILLE
Still too warm for a big outbreak. I think UL is the school most likely to have to shut down their campus and sports teams because of an massive problem. An expert on infectious diseases had this to say about a COVID comeback in the fall:
And the second wave of SARS-CoV-2? “It will likely hit harder in areas not severely impacted the first time in the interior of the U.S., where there’s a lot more susceptible people,” Kullar said. “COVID-19’s sweet spot could be October to May, with it peaking, likely, in October and November.”
Louisville is in the interior of the US. He has one of the highest rates of obesity in the US. Kentucky leads the US in percentage of citizens who smoke. The school is not known for discipline, academics or controls.
That said, I am hoping if an outbreak happens there, it will be later in the season. But I have concerns that UL might have problems fielding a team against us.
Probability of playing: 70%
Saturday, October 10th Bye
Saturday, October 17th LIBERTY
Another home game against a school I don’t really trust to have proper controls in place. Very glad this game is at home. It is starting to get cold in Syracuse now. Could see there being an outbreak at Liberty and the schools agreeing to reschedule the game for another season. Could see rescheduling the BC game here if it could not be played in September. Still, it will probably happen.
Probability of playing: 65%
Saturday, October 24th at Clemson
Given all that is at stake, one would think Clemson would be very conservative dealing with their football team and this season. I suspect their student body, while getting more diverse, is still pretty insulated and dominated by rural kids a few hours drive from the campus. It should still be warm down there even in late October. I worry more about road trips and all the extra exposure the team gets to outsiders. Also, this will surely be the biggest crowd the team plays in front of and the biggest hoard of press people. There will be a lot of danger lurking.
Probability of playing: 80%
Saturday, October 31st GEORGIA TECH
I am worried about this one. Georgia Tech has an urban campus in one of the biggest cities in the country in a state that has not shown the caution and concern you might want if your goal is to complete a football season. Very happy this game is in Syracuse. Next to UL, I think GT is the most likely school to get a major outbreak. But I think they will probably be okay.
Probability of playing: 75%
Saturday, November 7th at Wake Forest
Another road trip, another plane. I would think that next to Duke, Wake will monitor COVID and act to control it more than any other school in the ACC. November is the most likely month to have an outbreak but it stays warm enough down in Winston-Salem that things should be okay. It is a small school, in a fairly small town, all of which really helps efforts to protect it. And they proactively took measures to enforce social distancing in their stadium years ago.
At this point, if the game isn’t played, it is probably more likely it is because of an outbreak on the Syracuse campus (and among team members).
Probability of playing: 80%
Saturday, November 14th NORTH CAROLINA STATE
By now, I am really getting worried about an outbreak on the SU campus (and then amongst team members). I could see NC State having a outbreak too. It is the kind of thing that is going to happen to a school like that one. It can’t help that the players are getting tired and worn down by the long season.
Probability of playing: 75%
Thursday, November 19th FLORIDA STATE
At this point. I am thinking if the game is not played, it is because there has been an outbreak on the SU campus. By this point, it is conceivable the students have been sent home and classes are on line only.
If that happens, the SU football season is probably over.
Probability of playing: 65%
Saturday, November 28th at Pittsburgh
Two schools from the Northeast, playing in late November outdoors. What could possibly go wrong? I would love to move this game to the week we play Colgate and move the Colgate game to this week. Seems to me that would be a very good proactive move. Pitt is playing Richmond on September 19th. Maybe it could be done? Richmond does not have a game scheduled for 11/28, but it might be a date used for FCS playoff games. They were 5-7 last season. Probably not a big deal.
Anyway. I think there is a good chance at least one of the two teams has some positive cases and some other players in quarantine. The weather will be cold on both campuses leading up to the game and the experts are saying to expect COVID to come back hard. This is the most likely game to be canceled.
Probability of playing: 50%
I think it will be a minor miracle if SU ends up playing all 12 games on its schedule. I would be really happy just to get the conference games in. I think it is more likely we will get all the OOC games in and have to scrub a couple conference games late.
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