The Downside - Florida State | Syracusefan.com

The Downside - Florida State

SWC75

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- Florida State is too big and too good to beat when they are going to make 11 of 22 threes. They normally hit 33% and forcing them to shoot form outside is a good strategy against them. Not tonight.

- The game was decided on two runs, both of which were as painful to watch as it gets. Tyus battle hit a 10 footer from the side to make it 9-11 with 14:10 left in the first half. In the next 8 minutes and 26 seconds we were out-scored 5-25. We were 2 for 10 in field goals, 1 for 5 in free throws and had 7 turnovers in that span while the Seminoles were 9 for 16 from the field and 3 for 4 from the line with 3 turnovers. Rebounds were about even 9-8. They made 4 of 7 treys. We were 0 for 6.

- I didn’t feel the game was over. If you are going to fall way behind, fall way behind early. You’ve got time to come back, (in this case 25:44) and you’ve got halftime in the middle so you can rest up in the middle of it. My fear was not that we couldn’t catch up that we would expend so much energy in doing so that when we finally caught them, we would not be able to sustain the effort any further and the Noels would go on an answering run and re-take control. When we ended the half on a 17-3, I felt that we would then get the rest needed to avoid that. All we needed was a good start to the second half. We got the good start but could never gain the lead, coming within one point at 45-46, (an additional 14-7 run) with 13:44 left. That’s a total run of 31-10 over exactly 12 minutes). But it was as far as we got. It was still 52-55 when State went on their second run of 0-12 as we went scoreless for 3:46. We just get stuck on one score too many times. When we next scored we were down double digits with 6:25 left and the gas tank was on empty. It was over. They’d managed to fight us off until we just couldn’t go on over-drive any more.

- Years ago Herve Lamizana hit a banked in trey, (his only one all year) to beat us for Rutgers. That became known as a “Laminzana shot”. Tonight we witnessed a ”Kabengele Shot”, a three that’s obviously short all the way, hits off the back rim and the crawls over the rim and in. I thought it must have been tipped in by somebody but it must have had such a violent forward spin that it could defy the laws of physics and get through the hop anyway. I didn’t have a good feeling about the game after that shot and my feeling was correct.

- Frank Howard had a -9 game: two missed field goals, 3 missed free throws, 3 turnovers and afoul. He didn’t have one single positive statistic. The Noles’ second run began when Frank replaced Tyus to give him a blow. Senior point guards are supposed to lead the team in games like that and as JB said in his press conference, “he wasn’t mentally there”.

- Buddy Boeheim did some good things but isn’t really ready for a game like this against an opponent like this. He was 0 for 6 from the arc and had 3 turnovers.

- Jalen Carey got in for one minute, (if that). He made a steal and drove right into the defense and gave it right back. That was his entire evening.

- Elijah Hughes finally got it going in the second half and wound up with good numbers but he just hasn’t been himself for the previous three games. On the road trip he was 8 for 32 from the field, 5 for 21 from the arc and had 7 turnovers. Tonight, he had several opportunities to make the big shot that could have caught us up and maybe spurred us to hold onto a lead but he missed several of them: a trey at 38-42, a trey at 43-46, a trey at 45-48 and a jumper at 49-53. He also had a big turnover during the 0-12 run. Battle is Battle. Brissett is coming on strong. We need Hughes to make a it a big three, since Frank is playing small this year.

- Missing free throws when you are trying to nail down a win is very frustrating but it’s maddening when you are trying to make a comeback and you can’t convert on free shots with the clock not running. We missed 9 of them tonight. At one point we were 1 for 6 from the line.

- Bad officiating isn’t the reason you lost by 18 points but it stands out even more when nothing seems to be going right and you aren’t getting the calls either. The refs missed a shot clock violation. And several foul calls that could have been made. Also: if the other team’s 10th foul is a charge, don’t you get two free throws at the other end? That was the situation at the end of the half and all they did was have SU inbounds the ball and walk off to the dressing room.

- Some idiot called into the post-game show and said that they lost this game because JB attended the Super Bowl. The host pointed out that the team had practiced that morning.
 
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STEVEHOLT

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this is what happens to this team when you face a physical D with athletes and size. We've been beating up on turds and a Duke team without their best defender and one of their best players. we are not a good team...but there arent that many good teams in the country so well still make the tourney
 

CaptainJ

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- Florida State is too big and too good to beat when they are going to make 11 of 22 threes. They normally hit 33% and forcing them to shoot form outside is a good strategy against them. Not tonight.

- The game was decided on two runs, both of which were as painful to watch as it gets. Tyus battle hit a 10 footer from the side to make it 9-11 with 14:10 left in the first half. In the next 8 minutes and 26 seconds we were out-scored 5-25. WE were 2 for 10 in field goals, 1 for 5 in free throws and had 7 turnovers in that6 span while the Seminoles were 9 for 16 from the field and 3 for 4 from the line with 3 turnovers. Rebounds were about even 9-8. They made 4 of 7 treys. We were 0 for 6.

- I didn’t feel the game was over. If you are going to fall way behind, fall way behind early. You’ve got time to come back, (in this case 25:44) and you’ve got halftime in the middle so you can rest up in the middle of it. My fear was not that we couldn’t catch up that we would expend so much energy in doing so that when we finally caught them, we would not be able to sustain the effort any further and the Noels would go on an answering run and re-take control. When we ended the half on a 17-3, I felt that we would then get the rest needed to avoid that. All we needed was a good start to the second half. We got the good start but could never gain the lead, coming within one point at 45-46, (an additional 14-7 run) with 13:44 left. That’s a total run of 31-10 over exactly 12 minutes). But it was as far as we got. It was still 52-55 when State went on their second run of 0-12 as we went scoreless for 3:46. We just get stuck on one score too many times. When we next scored we were down double digits with 6:25 left and the gas tank was on empty. It was over. They’d managed to fight us off until we just couldn’t go on over-drive any more.

- Years ago Herve Lamizana hit a banked in trey, (his only one all year) to beat us for Rutgers. That became known as a “Laminzana shot”. Tonight we witnessed a ”Kabengele Shot”, a three that’s obviously short all the way, hits off the back rim and the crawls over the rim and in. I thought it must have been tipped in by somebody but it must have had such a violent forward spin that it could defy the laws of physics and get through the hop anyway. I didn’t have a good feeling about the game after that shot and my feeling was correct.

- Frank Howard had a -9 game: two missed field goals, 3 missed free throws, 3 turnovers and afoul. He didn’t have one single positive statistic. The Noles’ second run began when Frank replaced Tyus to give him a blow. Senior point guards are supposed to lead the team in games like that and as JB said in his press conference, “he wasn’t mentally there”.

- Buddy Boeheim did some good things but isn’t really ready for a game like this against an opponent like this. He was 0 for 6 from the arc and had 3 turnovers.

- Jalen Carey got in for one minute, (if that). He made a steal and drove right into the defense and gave it right back. That was his entire evening.

- Elijah Hughes finally got it going in the second half and wound up with good numbers but he just hasn’t bene himself for the previous three games. On the road trip he was 8 for 32 from the field, 5 for 21 from the arc and had 7 turnovers. Tonight, he ahd several opportunities to make the big shot that could have caught us up and maybe spurred us to hold onto a lead but he missed several of them: a trey at 38-42, a trey at 43-46, a trey at 45-48 and a jumper at 49-53. He also had a big turnover during the 0-12 run. Battle is Battle. Brissett is coming on strong. We need Hughes to make a it a big three, since Frank is playing small this year.

- Missing free throws when you are trying to nail down a win is very frustrating but it’s maddening when you are trying to make a comeback and you can’t convert on free shots with the clock not running. We missed 9 of them tonight. At one point we were 1 for 6 from the line.

- Bad officiating isn’t the reason you lost by 18 points but it stands out even more when nothing seems to be going right and you aren’t getting the calls either. The refs missed a shot clock violation. And several foul calls that could have been made. Also: if the other team’s 10th foul is a charge, don’t you get two free throws at the other end? That was the situation at the end of the half and all they did was have SU inbounds the ball and walk off to the dressing room.

- Some idiot called into the post-game show and said that they lost this game because JB attended the Super Bowl. The host pointed out that the team had practiced that morning.

SWC, iI wanted to caution against the idiot thing, being some folks in the presser thread expressed similar thoughts. I'm not aking one side or the other, and I appreciate the heck out of both sides of that argument for coming out hard...like watching 2 good teams you respect without having a favorite. I just wanted to make you aware.

And the free throw thing...youre the stats guy, is that still a curse? I'd like to put in a FORMAL request for you to do some of your work(which I consider extraordinary) on SU FT shooting...heck, Id be kind of surprised if you havent already Whee does this team rank, and where does SU rank vs normal(lol) teams over the course of years? I dont know about the legends here, but I'd find that very interesting.
 

STEVEHOLT

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- Florida State is too big and too good to beat when they are going to make 11 of 22 threes. They normally hit 33% and forcing them to shoot form outside is a good strategy against them. Not tonight.

- The game was decided on two runs, both of which were as painful to watch as it gets. Tyus battle hit a 10 footer from the side to make it 9-11 with 14:10 left in the first half. In the next 8 minutes and 26 seconds we were out-scored 5-25. WE were 2 for 10 in field goals, 1 for 5 in free throws and had 7 turnovers in that6 span while the Seminoles were 9 for 16 from the field and 3 for 4 from the line with 3 turnovers. Rebounds were about even 9-8. They made 4 of 7 treys. We were 0 for 6.

- I didn’t feel the game was over. If you are going to fall way behind, fall way behind early. You’ve got time to come back, (in this case 25:44) and you’ve got halftime in the middle so you can rest up in the middle of it. My fear was not that we couldn’t catch up that we would expend so much energy in doing so that when we finally caught them, we would not be able to sustain the effort any further and the Noels would go on an answering run and re-take control. When we ended the half on a 17-3, I felt that we would then get the rest needed to avoid that. All we needed was a good start to the second half. We got the good start but could never gain the lead, coming within one point at 45-46, (an additional 14-7 run) with 13:44 left. That’s a total run of 31-10 over exactly 12 minutes). But it was as far as we got. It was still 52-55 when State went on their second run of 0-12 as we went scoreless for 3:46. We just get stuck on one score too many times. When we next scored we were down double digits with 6:25 left and the gas tank was on empty. It was over. They’d managed to fight us off until we just couldn’t go on over-drive any more.

- Years ago Herve Lamizana hit a banked in trey, (his only one all year) to beat us for Rutgers. That became known as a “Laminzana shot”. Tonight we witnessed a ”Kabengele Shot”, a three that’s obviously short all the way, hits off the back rim and the crawls over the rim and in. I thought it must have been tipped in by somebody but it must have had such a violent forward spin that it could defy the laws of physics and get through the hop anyway. I didn’t have a good feeling about the game after that shot and my feeling was correct.

- Frank Howard had a -9 game: two missed field goals, 3 missed free throws, 3 turnovers and afoul. He didn’t have one single positive statistic. The Noles’ second run began when Frank replaced Tyus to give him a blow. Senior point guards are supposed to lead the team in games like that and as JB said in his press conference, “he wasn’t mentally there”.

- Buddy Boeheim did some good things but isn’t really ready for a game like this against an opponent like this. He was 0 for 6 from the arc and had 3 turnovers.

- Jalen Carey got in for one minute, (if that). He made a steal and drove right into the defense and gave it right back. That was his entire evening.

- Elijah Hughes finally got it going in the second half and wound up with good numbers but he just hasn’t bene himself for the previous three games. On the road trip he was 8 for 32 from the field, 5 for 21 from the arc and had 7 turnovers. Tonight, he ahd several opportunities to make the big shot that could have caught us up and maybe spurred us to hold onto a lead but he missed several of them: a trey at 38-42, a trey at 43-46, a trey at 45-48 and a jumper at 49-53. He also had a big turnover during the 0-12 run. Battle is Battle. Brissett is coming on strong. We need Hughes to make a it a big three, since Frank is playing small this year.

- Missing free throws when you are trying to nail down a win is very frustrating but it’s maddening when you are trying to make a comeback and you can’t convert on free shots with the clock not running. We missed 9 of them tonight. At one point we were 1 for 6 from the line.

- Bad officiating isn’t the reason you lost by 18 points but it stands out even more when nothing seems to be going right and you aren’t getting the calls either. The refs missed a shot clock violation. And several foul calls that could have been made. Also: if the other team’s 10th foul is a charge, don’t you get two free throws at the other end? That was the situation at the end of the half and all they did was have SU inbounds the ball and walk off to the dressing room.

- Some idiot called into the post-game show and said that they lost this game because JB attended the Super Bowl. The host pointed out that the team had practiced that morning.


Player control fouls (charges, illegal screens) dont result in free throws. Over the backs however I do believe result in FT if in penalty
 

AlaskaSU

Build a dorm, burn the locker rm. upgrade the dome
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I place some of the blame on shot selection. The odds of making a 3 pointer are much better when it is not taken off the dribble. Too often we start our offense too far from the paint and pass around the perimeter without going inside out or some such creativity. Not having a post threat is another liability. We win when every one is on but have little margin for error.

As a fan, what I find most disappointing is that we no longer dominate in the dome.
 

Madbiker

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When you commit 19 turnovers and don't defend too you get beat like a drum. That was us last night.
 

SWC75

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SWC, iI wanted to caution against the idiot thing, being some folks in the presser thread expressed similar thoughts. I'm not aking one side or the other, and I appreciate the heck out of both sides of that argument for coming out hard...like watching 2 good teams you respect without having a favorite. I just wanted to make you aware.

And the free throw thing...youre the stats guy, is that still a curse? I'd like to put in a FORMAL request for you to do some of your work(which I consider extraordinary) on SU FT shooting...heck, Id be kind of surprised if you havent already Whee does this team rank, and where does SU rank vs normal(lol) teams over the course of years? I dont know about the legends here, but I'd find that very interesting.

I last looked at the issue of SU’s free throw percentages vs. NCAA norms in 2011. I’ve been asked to update this study and have more information not only for subsequent seasons but also for some historical seasons so here goes.

Links:
SU’s historical numbers back to the 1947-48 season:
Syracuse Orange Basketball Team Season Statistics

Historical NCAA numbers, (page 69):
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/2019/D1.pdf

Information about SU’s opponents:
Year-by-Year Statistics/Final Release

I have some SU yearbooks/media guides dating back to the 1968-69 season but not all of them. I also have my 2011 study.

Putting all of that together:

SU vs. the average free throw percentage and their opponent’s free throw percentage:

1947-48 SU: .605 Nation: .598 Difference: +.007
1948-49 SU: .597 Nation: .616 Difference: -.019
1949-50 SU: .611 Nation: .618 Difference: -.007

1950-51 SU: .642 Nation: .628 Difference: +.014
1951-52 SU: .687 Nation: .626 Difference: +.061
1952-53 SU: .644 Nation: .640 Difference: +.004
1953-54 SU: .634 Nation: .652 Difference: -.018
1954-55 SU: .642 Nation: .665 Difference: -.023
1955-56 SU: .607 Nation: .668 Difference: -.061
1956-57 SU: .671 Nation: .673 Difference: -.002
1957-58 SU: .647 Nation: .664 Difference: -.017
1958-59 SU: .681 Nation: .671 Difference: +.010
1959-60 SU: .700 Nation: .674 Difference: +.026

1960-61 SU: .673 Nation: .682 Difference: -.009
1961-62 SU: .680 Nation: .679 Difference: +.001
1962-63 SU: .650 Nation: .682 Difference: -.032
1963-64 SU: .700 Nation: .683 Difference: +.017
1964-65 SU: .704 Nation: .690 Difference: +.014
1965-66 SU: .712 Nation: .692 Difference: +.020 Opponents: .697 Difference from SU: +.015
1966-67 SU: .723 Nation: .690 Difference: +.033
1967-68 SU: .747 Nation: .691 Difference: +.056 Opponents: .727 Difference from SU: +.020
1968-69 SU: .694 Nation: .684 Difference: +.010 Opponents: .682 Difference from SU: +.012
1969-70 SU: .659 Nation: .687 Difference: -.028 Opponents: .717 Difference from SU: -.058

1970-71 SU: .686 Nation: .681 Difference: +.005 Opponents: .738 Difference from SU: -.052
1971-72 SU: .747 Nation: .686 Difference: +.061 Opponents: .675 Difference from SU: +.072
1972-73 SU: .699 Nation: .684 Difference: +.015
1973-74 SU: .638 Nation: .684 Difference: -.046
1974-75 SU: .671 Nation: .690 Difference: -.019
1975-76 SU: .635 Nation: .692 Difference: -.057
1976-77 SU: .675 Nation: .694 Difference: -.019
1977-78 SU: .675 Nation: .692 Difference: -.017
1978-79 SU: .712 Nation: .697 Difference: +.015
1979-80 SU: .719 Nation: .696 Difference: +.023 Opponents: .698 Difference from SU: +.021

1980-81 SU: .750 Nation: .689 Difference: +.061 Opponents: .701 Difference from SU: +.049
1981-82 SU: .711 Nation: .686 Difference: +.015 Opponents: .686 Difference from SU: +.025
1982-83 SU: .713 Nation: .685 Difference: +.028 Opponents: .704 Difference from SU: +.009
1983-84 SU: .751 Nation: .689 Difference: +.062 Opponents: .683 Difference from SU: +.068
1984-85 SU: .715 Nation: .689 Difference: +.026 Opponents: .697 Difference from SU: +.015
1985-86 SU: .686 Nation: .691 Difference: -.005 Opponents: .701 Difference from SU: -.010
1986-87 SU: .650 Nation: .691 Difference: -.041 Opponents: .694 Difference from SU: -.044
1987-88 SU: .600 Nation: .689 Difference: -.089 Opponents: .671 Difference from SU: -.071
1988-89 SU: .612 Nation: .691 Difference: -.079 Opponents: .680 Difference from SU: -.068
1989-90 SU: .647 Nation: .689 Difference: -.042 Opponents: .739 Difference from SU: -.092

1990-91 SU: .645 Nation: .686 Difference: -.041 Opponents: .661 Difference from SU: -.016
1991-92 SU: .685 Nation: .681 Difference: +.004 Opponents: .675 Difference from SU: +.006
1992-93 SU: .686 Nation: .677 Difference: +.009 Opponents: .675 Difference from SU: +.011
1993-94 SU: .715 Nation: .671 Difference: +.044 Opponents: .657 Difference from SU: +.058
1994-95 SU: .662 Nation: .676 Difference: -.014 Opponents: .701 Difference from SU: -.039
1995-96 SU: .705 Nation: .674 Difference: +.031 Opponents: .627 Difference from SU: +.078
1996-97 SU: .642 Nation: .674 Difference: -.032 Opponents: .688 Difference from SU: -.046
1997-98 SU: .676 Nation: .675 Difference: +.001 Opponents: .652 Difference from SU: +.024
1998-99 SU: .663 Nation: .678 Difference: -.015 Opponents: .694 Difference from SU: -.031
1999-00 SU: .705 Nation: .681 Difference: +.024 Opponents: .669 Difference from SU: +.036

2000-01 SU: .715 Nation: .685 Difference: +.030 Opponents: .654 Difference from SU: +.061
2001-02 SU: .650 Nation: .690 Difference: -.040 Opponents: .682 Difference from SU: -.032
2002-03 SU: .694 Nation: .694 Difference: none Opponents: .652 Difference from SU: +.042
2003-04 SU: .643 Nation: .688 Difference: -.045 Opponents: .670 Difference from SU: +.027
2004-05 SU: .667 Nation: .687 Difference: -.020 Opponents: .677 Difference from SU: -.010
2005-06 SU: .643 Nation: .691 Difference: -.048 Opponents: .701 Difference from SU: -.058
2006-07 SU: .695 Nation: .690 Difference: +.005 Opponents: .630 Difference from SU: +.060
2007-08 SU: .668 Nation: .691 Difference: -.023 Opponents: .696 Difference from SU: -.028
2008-09 SU: .645 Nation: .690 Difference: -.045 Opponents: .630 Difference from SU: +.015
2009-10 SU: .677 Nation: .689 Difference: -.012 Opponents: .637 Difference from SU: +.040

2010-11 SU: .665 Nation: .693 Difference: -.028 Opponents: .697 Difference from SU: +.015
2011-12 SU: .698 Nation: .691 Difference: +.007 Opponents: .676 Difference from SU: +.022
2012-13 SU: .675 Nation: .693 Difference: -.018 Opponents: .673 Difference from SU: +.002
2013-14 SU: .708 Nation: .698 Difference: +.010 Opponents: .668 Difference from SU: +.040
2014-15 SU: .660 Nation: .692 Difference: -.032 Opponents: .704 Difference from SU: +.044
2015-16 SU: .688 Nation: .699 Difference: -.011 Opponents: .666 Difference from SU: +.022
2016-17 SU: .738 Nation: .704 Difference: +.034 Opponents: .658 Difference from SU: +.080
2017-18 SU: .736 Nation: .713 Difference: +.023 Opponents: .731 Difference from SU: +.005
2018-19 SU: .684 Nation: .702 Difference: -.018 Opponents: .690 Difference from SU: -.006
(For 2018-19 I could not find an overall NCAA percentage so I used the percentage of the 177th ranked of 353 teams.)

Let’s focus on the Boeheim Era: Syracuse has hit 68.3% of their free throws in the Boeheim Era. The Nation has hit 68.9%. The opposition, (for the years for which I have information), has hit 67.9%.We’ve out-shot the nation 19 times, failed to match them 23 times and broken even once. We’ve out-shot the opposition 26 times, (including the last 8 years in a row before this one) and lost that battle 14 times.

So far this year we have averaged 21.5 field goal attempts to 18.0 for the opposition. That means that any deficit in percentage, (and they tend to be slight), is likely erased because we get more attempts.

How much of a difference in percentage is significant? Let’s say that a team averages 20 free throw attempts per game. Each made shot increases your free throw percentage by 50 points. Thus any difference of less than 50 points is statistically insignificant. We have differed from the national average by that amount four times: 1980-81, 1983-84, 1987-88 and 1988-89. SU was above the national average in the first two years and the latter two teams are among our best ever. We would trade this year’s roster for the roster we had in those two years in a New York nanosecond. We topped our opposition by that margin in 1983-84, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2000-01, 2006-07, 2016-17 and lost that stat by that margin in 1987-88, 1988-89, 1989-90 and 2005-06. That’s 11 seasons out of 40/43 where the difference was statistically significant and the difference was in our favor in 7 of those seasons.

In 1987-88 they scored 574 points from the foul line to 435 for their opponents because of the number of attempts they had, (957-648). In 1988-89 they outscored the opposition 599-555 from the line. In 1989-90 it was 577-546. The only year we’ve been both out-shot by at least 5% from the line and outscored from the line was 2005-06, (449-525).

They keys to doing well at the line would tend to be getting the right guys to the line and getting the ball to the right guy when protecting a lead at the end of the game. When we have big men or good drivers who can hit free throws, our percentage is high. If we can have a “closer” like Gerry McNamara all we have to do is inbound the ball to him and he’ll make the free throws. He was 88.8% for his career and probably 98.8% in the last minute of a game. At the same time, our best perimeter shooting teams, like the early 80’s, have been good free throw shooting teams. If we have a “Hack-aShaq” guy, our percentage goes down.

The frustrating thing about this year, (2018-19), is that we have several guys who are not shooting as well from the line as they did last year:
Tyus Battle was .839 last year. He’s .789 this year. That’s -.050
Oshae Brissett was .787, is .681 = -.107
Frank Howard was .719, is .714 = -.005
Paschal Chukwu was .632, is .596 = -.036
Marek Dolezaj was .711, is .500 = -.211
Bourama Sidibe was .475, is .424 = .051

But the team was .736, is .684 = -.052, essentially I point a game worse.
 

SWC75

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SWC, iI wanted to caution against the idiot thing, being some folks in the presser thread expressed similar thoughts. I'm not aking one side or the other, and I appreciate the heck out of both sides of that argument for coming out hard...like watching 2 good teams you respect without having a favorite. I just wanted to make you aware.

And the free throw thing...youre the stats guy, is that still a curse? I'd like to put in a FORMAL request for you to do some of your work(which I consider extraordinary) on SU FT shooting...heck, Id be kind of surprised if you havent already Whee does this team rank, and where does SU rank vs normal(lol) teams over the course of years? I dont know about the legends here, but I'd find that very interesting.


Regarding the "idiot thing": the same guy just called into the Orange Nation show and was cut off and called that. The additional point was made that if Jim and his boys had stayed in Syracuse, what would they be doing? Watching the Super Bowl. :confused:

The same guy later called into On the Block with Brent Axe and got the same response. Brent told him that the team practiced Sunday and the guy said "Ohhhh..."
 
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