The Half-Hearted Case for a Bowl Game

[TheCusian]

(Yes, this is a sad title to a post. I'm owning it.)

Before I get too far, I'd like to acknowledge that hope and possible good news hits some here, especially after a loss, in a weird way. Oil and soap. That's fine. If you're reaction is to just post "yeah right" or "cool stats are for losers" - fine. If you want to have a substantial debate on the merits - come back with some of your own research. And, yeah - I know this is nothing more than collating info from the google machine and drawing obvious conclusions. Do some of your own if you want, I'll read it.

Finally, know that while the tenor of this post is hopeful, I'm actually pretty beat down by the offense I was forced to watch on Friday. It's tough to believe that anything can be salvaged.
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So here goes - Pitt and NC State were both pretty good on D. Pitt especially so - it was their strength (pass rushing/blitz) vs our glaring and horrible pass protection and a lack of run game. The good news two weeks ago was that if things looked bad in the NC State and Pitt games, it was probable that our O would struggle vs those teams and that the remaining teams on the schedule all have worse defenses (and better offenses). Check this out:

Opponents	DEF SP+ Ranking	DEF YPP/ Ranking	PASS D Rating/ Ranking	Syracuse YPP	Syracuse Passing Rating
Liberty	98	6.33 / 96	135.88 / 74	4.66	79.38
Maryland	58	5.71 / 76	148.86 / 108	5.71	155.17
Clemson	3	4.01 / 3	91.27 / 3	2.63	94.64
Western Mich	107	5.92 / 88	139.33 / 83	6.65	183.74
NC State	45	4.98 / 35	122.7 / 43	4.49	147.43
Pitt	15	4.33 / 11	106.57 / 11	4.21	111.06
FSU	73	5.51 / 63	128.87 / 59	x	x
BC	94	6.12 / 95	146.59 / 104	x	x
Duke	40	4.95 / 33	122.86 / 44	x	x
Louisville	100	6.15 / 97	144.45 / 95	x	x
Wake Forest	67	5.81 / 81	146.86 / 106	x	x

 

[TheCusian]

Now, in comp to the remaining teams on our schedule, our D is ok:

	DEF SP+ Ranking	DEF YPP/ Ranking	PASS D Rating / Ranking
Syracuse	49	5.66 / 71	119.98 / 37

The offenses of the remaining teams are mostly pretty good (no time for another table today). So we have a shot - IF TOMMY STAYS HEALTHY - and our D plays a touch better.

In order of most likely to win:

1. BC (their secondary is awful)
2. Louisville
3. Wake (their secondary is worse than BC's)
4. FSU
5. Duke

 

[OrangeinBoston]

If the coaching staff can't get the OL to improve from being the worst in D1, we aren't winning any more games. More than likely because we will have no QB left standing.

 

[Pyle]

 

[TheCusian]

Good takes and it's made me reconsider

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Remaining games are all pretty tough.

We need to go bowling one way or another. We started the year ranked.

 

[TheCusian]

Remaining games are all pretty tough.

We need to go bowling one way or another. We started the year ranked.

yep. I’m not saying we’re going to win any of the remaining games. I’m just saying the last two teams made a struggling offense look horrible. The remaining teams might make a struggling offense look mediocre. And that might be enough.