The mirage that is the 10 man rotation

[moqui]

JB is only using 10 players because he has been blowing teams out this year.

The reality of the rotation is what we saw in the 2nd half of the Pitt game: No Rak, No MCW, very little Dirty.

Barring injury or foul trouble, in a close game against quality opponents, JB is the same 7.5 guy he has always been. The minutes are owned by three guards, two centers, and two forwards (he will rotate this year's .5 man, Dirty, when he can to steal some rest/foul minutes for CJ and KJ).

If it is Saturday afternoon, March 19 in Pittsburgh, and JB finds himself going knuckle to knuckle with Temple in a half court struggle just to make the 2nd weekend, we are not going to see the freshmen. And, if he doesn't knock a couple shots down early and the other two forwards aren't in foul trouble, we won't see more than 5 minutes of Dirty, either.

It's no big deal - most coaches begin tightening their rotation as the season progresses. SU's relatively easy way thus far has given JB the luxury of waiting before he has to do it. But, it is certainly coming.

 

[CorduroyG]

No doubt, but it wasnt just the 2nd half of the pitt game.

Va Tech - rak 2 minutes, mcw 3 minutes, dirty 6 minutes
Stanford - rak 4 minutes, mcw 2 minutes, dirty 7 minutes
Florida - rak 2 minutes, mcw DNP, dirty 11 minutes
NC State - rak 2 minutes, mcw 2 minutes, dirty 18 minutes

What do those 4 games have in common? They were the 4 closest games we've played all year. The frosh wont see much if any action as the games get bigger and tougher, and just like you said, dirty's pt will just depend on if hes "on" or not. And i dont see how jb can afford NOT to play dion 30+ minutes once march rolls around.

 

[jdubs30]

I think most people say "we have the ability to go 10 deep", which most teams don't have. JB can go 10 deep without losing much on the talent side of things, but obviously the experience won't be there.

 

[pearl31]

mostly agree with Moqui, but still think we'll see Dirty during crunch time in certain games.

 

[jordoo]

I agree we are basically playing 8 guys against good competition in closer type games. That being said our 9th and 10th guy are far better then I can ever remember our 9th and 10th guys being. We don't have to rely on freshman in any situation if we don't want to, which is a huge advantage.

Edit: Its not just depth either its very high quality depth. And announcers see that then they get blown away when MCW comes in and they realize he's our 10th guy.

 

[pfister1]

JB is only using 10 players because he has been blowing teams out this year.

The reality of the rotation is what we saw in the 2nd half of the Pitt game: No Rak, No MCW, very little Dirty.

Barring injury or foul trouble, in a close game against quality opponents, JB is the same 7.5 guy he has always been. The minutes are owned by three guards, two centers, and two forwards (he will rotate this year's .5 man, Dirty, when he can to steal some rest/foul minutes for CJ and KJ).

If it is Saturday afternoon, March 19 in Pittsburgh, and JB finds himself going knuckle to knuckle with Temple in a half court struggle just to make the 2nd weekend, we are not going to see the freshmen. And, if he doesn't knock a couple shots down early and the other two forwards aren't in foul trouble, we won't see more than 5 minutes of Dirty, either.

It's no big deal - most coaches begin tightening their rotation as the season progresses. SU's relatively easy way thus far has given JB the luxury of waiting before he has to do it. But, it is certainly coming.

I tend to agree that the 10 man "rotation" is a bit overhyped and to a large degree based on the circumstances in the games we have played to date. But I don't know how you wouldn't consider James to be a full fledged member of the rotation at this point?

MCW may not get in every game between now and the end of the season. Rak looks as though he'll get his token starts, but not really have the opportunity to expand his minutes in close games, even if he plays well. James on the other appears like he'll get a reasonable run each game and his minutes beyond that will depend on his contributions during that time. Based on that I would consider him to be a full fledged part of the rotation - not a .5.

 

[longtimefan]

JB is only using 10 players because he has been blowing teams out this year.

The reality of the rotation is what we saw in the 2nd half of the Pitt game: No Rak, No MCW, very little Dirty.

Barring injury or foul trouble, in a close game against quality opponents, JB is the same 7.5 guy he has always been. The minutes are owned by three guards, two centers, and two forwards (he will rotate this year's .5 man, Dirty, when he can to steal some rest/foul minutes for CJ and KJ).

If it is Saturday afternoon, March 19 in Pittsburgh, and JB finds himself going knuckle to knuckle with Temple in a half court struggle just to make the 2nd weekend, we are not going to see the freshmen. And, if he doesn't knock a couple shots down early and the other two forwards aren't in foul trouble, we won't see more than 5 minutes of Dirty, either.

It's no big deal - most coaches begin tightening their rotation as the season progresses. SU's relatively easy way thus far has given JB the luxury of waiting before he has to do it. But, it is certainly coming.

I think the difference this year is that, should he have to go deep due to foul trouble or (shudder) injury, JB has bodies on the bench who can hold the fort. No Riley vs. Butler situation.

You may be correct that, at least to some extent, the development of 8-10 has been helped by the level of the opposition. But, the coach has spread the minutes much more evenly among the top 7 than I can ever remember.

 

[OrangeCrush22]

I agree, we're really 11 deep.

 

[arbitragegls]

agree with the spreading of the minutes...in fact; I am concerned that it appears JB is trying to split minutes evenly...especially when one of the 7 is playing so well there is no reason to take that player out. Specifically our 3 guards are playing equal minutes...but whether its Scoop, Waiters or Triche..the best two that night should play the most and I do not feel JB is doing that...am I wrong?

 

[texascpa]

I agree we are 7.5 primarily but we are not using the other 2.5 because we are blowing teams away. Those 2.5 are getting their time in at the beginning of halves (XMas), end of first half (MWC) and in any sort of manner (Dirty). Your conclusion is correct, your reasoning is not.

 

[moqui]

I don't know how you wouldn't consider James to be a full fledged member of the rotation at this point?

Nobody is a bigger fan of James than I - I have been singing his praises for two years - but I don't call him a full fledged member of the rotation because of the 2nd half of the Pitt game. He played less than 2 minutes. That has been the case in the 2nd half of other games, as well. I am just describing what I am seeing.

Now, as it happens, I think that is a mistake. I think JB is mis-using JS - he keeps him mostly on the perimeter as a pick and pop guy. I think his best fit would be at the high post, and I think running a few plays through him there would really benefit the half court offense. He has shown good vision and an ability to find his teammates from there, I think he could make the occasional drive to the cup, and his J is money from 15 feet.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

JB is only using 10 players because he has been blowing teams out this year.

The reality of the rotation is what we saw in the 2nd half of the Pitt game: No Rak, No MCW, very little Dirty.

Barring injury or foul trouble, in a close game against quality opponents, JB is the same 7.5 guy he has always been. The minutes are owned by three guards, two centers, and two forwards (he will rotate this year's .5 man, Dirty, when he can to steal some rest/foul minutes for CJ and KJ).

If it is Saturday afternoon, March 19 in Pittsburgh, and JB finds himself going knuckle to knuckle with Temple in a half court struggle just to make the 2nd weekend, we are not going to see the freshmen. And, if he doesn't knock a couple shots down early and the other two forwards aren't in foul trouble, we won't see more than 5 minutes of Dirty, either.

It's no big deal - most coaches begin tightening their rotation as the season progresses. SU's relatively easy way thus far has given JB the luxury of waiting before he has to do it. But, it is certainly coming.

I disagree to an extent. I think JB is making a concerted effort to play more people.

Unless you think JB is going to change the starting lineup, you will see Rak in every game, even close ones. Sure, the minutes will be early but they are still there, much like with Fab last year. And Rak is pretty much the 9th guy.

I don't buy the thought that since Dirty didn't produce against Pitt he won't produce against anyone. First off, Pitt plays a certain style that is troublesome for JS. But even so, if he had hit a couple of 3s, he could have seen more floor time.

I think MCW is the tough one for JB. I think JB is conciously trying to develop him, stealing some minutes for him when he can. MCW is 10th and his minutes will be dished out on a game by game basis. But I really do feel JB is trying to find minutes for his 10th man. When has that happened before?

But sure, in the second halves of tight games, the players playing the best will hog most of the minutes.

 

[moqui]

I don't buy the thought that since Dirty didn't produce against Pitt he won't produce against anyone.

it's not that he didn't produce (indeed, his defense was solid); it's simply that he didn't play in the 2nd half. and, it is not the first time this season that JB has played the entire 2nd half with a 7.5 man rotation.

Rak will continue to start, yes, but he is a token starter. From here on out, any game that is close, we won't see much of him in the final 36 minutes, and not at all in the 2nd half (barring injury or foul trouble, of course).

 

[orangefan13]

I agree we are 7.5 primarily but we are not using the other 2.5 because we are blowing teams away. Those 2.5 are getting their time in at the beginning of halves (XMas), end of first half (MWC) and in any sort of manner (Dirty). Your conclusion is correct, your reasoning is not.

+1
Rak is our only true PF hes a legitimite part of the rotation for that alone. He is better now then what he was against Stanford, and Va Tech by a long shot. Hes scoring moving in position and grabbing boards much better then the first month of the season. And we are in BE play.

MCW is long and lengthy at the top of the zone, extended defense and the press. Its just about how the offense funcitons with him. Scoop Dion and Triche are all BIG to our teams offense while MCW hasn't proven he is yet. That is the difference.
He is our 4th best guard right now and we don't need to give our 4th best guard big mintutes.

Rak and MCW could start on 70 percent of BE teams.
Dirty is a solid 6th/7th man on every team in the Big East as well.

 

[moqui]

+1
Rak is our only true PF hes a legitimite part of the rotation for that alone. He is better now then what he was against Stanford, and Va Tech by a long shot. Hes scoring moving in position and grabbing boards much better then the first month of the season. And we are in BE play.

MCW is long and lengthy at the top of the zone, extended defense and the press. Its just about how the offense funcitons with him. Scoop Dion and Triche are all BIG to our teams offense while MCW hasn't proven he is yet. That is the difference.
He is our 4th best guard right now and we don't need to give our 4th best guard big mintutes.

Rak and MCW could start on 70 percent of BE teams.
Dirty is a solid 6th/7th man on every team in the Big East as well.

it's not a question of how good they are

it's an observation about how JB is actually using them in the few games (halves) in which the team has been in close scrapes.

if SU is down 5 with 6 minutes to play in a Sweet 16 game and CJ draws his 4th foul, JB is not going to bring Rak in off the bench. He's gonna roll the dice with CJ.

 

[zhanjuzi]

James will continue to get diminished minutes as his offensive production declines. Once again he has lost his shooting touch and I'm hoping he gets it back soon. IMO, when he is on, we are basically unbeatable

 

[orangefan13]

IMO
Rak is ahead of MCW down the stretch unless we press or are pressed I think. And its not even close just because of who is ahead of MCW.

But.
Rak had a combined 7-10 points at the beginning of 2 of the last three games. And there was rumors that he was not 100 percent last game the one he didn't do alot in (maybe under the weather).

He has had stretches this year where we have really pounded it inside to him and he has grabbed some tough rebounds and attacked the rim violently. Also with Scoop throwing those deep passes inot the low post better finally this month that will help Raks game.

Thets see where he is by the end of Jan. Hes going to climb alittle bit every month.
The statistic grid showes he is climbing a mountain right now and hasn't stopped.

Also CJ stopping someone like Davis or Macadoo is rediculous. Now someone like Rak playing him in the high post outside of the low(since Fab owns the low post) sounds more sound.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

it's not that he didn't produce (indeed, his defense was solid); it's simply that he didn't play in the 2nd half. and, it is not the first time this season that JB has played the entire 2nd half with a 7.5 man rotation.

Rak will continue to start, yes, but he is a token starter. From here on out, any game that is close, we won't see much of him in the final 36 minutes, and not at all in the 2nd half (barring injury or foul trouble, of course).

Having a 9th guy being a starter is a great way to expand the rotation.

There are 11 regular season games left. Of those, ND, Cincy, maybe WV, St Johns, Rutgers, USF, and the first game of the tourney should all be ones where minutes can be distributed if JB wants. And it looks like that is something he is conciously trying to do.

So there might be 7 or 8 games where JB plays only 7.5 people in the second half.

But it is not a mirage. JB is really trying to have 10 involved. And if he is trying they will be playing.

True, all 10 will not get crunch time minutes, especially freshmen. But that, in my mind, is a good thing. Play the frosh but don't get in a situation where you depend on them in the clutch. I have been one of those people who has been hoping for years that he would do something like this. And now it is happening, developing for the future while sitting at number 1, no less. Let's not nitpick and complain that he is not giving the frosh run during crucial times in games. That's just crazy talk.

 

[Garbs]

when are people going to realize there is no such thing as a .5 man in a rotation, they are either in the rotation or not, no matter how many minutes they play

if they get in every game they are in the rotation, whether it is 2 minutes or 15 minutes they are in not half in

/end rant

 

[Scooch]

As late as early February in 2003 Josh Pace was still getting DNPs (check out the @Miami box score if you don't believe me). So the mere fact that MCW and Xmas are playing now is significant.

It's probably safe to say that the term "rotation" has many different meanings. I'm pretty content with this "mirage" so far.

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

It's probably safe to say that the term "rotation" has many different meanings. I'm pretty content with this "mirage" so far.

I second that emotion. If James is brought in and goes 3 of 5 from deep in the first half, he will get more run. The rest is academic. JB has a myriad of options with his 10 player rotation, and has not shown any hesitation to use them when the matchup is favorable.

 

[CorduroyG]

I dont see mcw and rak getting more than 2 or 3 minutes a game against the big boys and in the tournament when its do or die, just like theyve been getting in the few close games we've had this year. Whether thats still part of the rotation or not is open for debate. And i expect dion's minutes to get bumped up to 30 or close to it.

 

[moqui]

when are people going to realize there is no such thing as a .5 man in a rotation, they are either in the rotation or not, no matter how many minutes they play

if they get in every game they are in the rotation, whether it is 2 minutes or 15 minutes they are in not half in

/end rant

it's not a mathematical operand, so don't get hung up too much on it. the ".5" term came about in 2003 specifically referring to #5 in your programs, Josh Pace, who seemed to be in the rotation, but would then log DNPs or just get spot minutes in the first half of certain games. It's just a way to note that JB usually has 7 guys who play every game, then an eighth man who sometimes plays double digit minutes, sometimes plays token minutes, sometimes doesn't play at all, but still seems to be a quasi-rotation player

 

[stuckinbig11]

I disagree. He has 10 players to work with and will use any combination that he thinks might work against a given team in a given situation until a player proves he is having an off day. The exception might be Rak.

 

[OttoMets]

Now, as it happens, I think that is a mistake. I think JB is mis-using JS - he keeps him mostly on the perimeter as a pick and pop guy. I think his best fit would be at the high post, and I think running a few plays through him there would really benefit the half court offense. He has shown good vision and an ability to find his teammates from there, I think he could make the occasional drive to the cup, and his J is money from 15 feet.

How we don't use James from the high post more often - especially when we get zoned, as on Monday night - is beyond me. I fear that'll end up being a "what-if" question at some point later this year. Using James from that spot would go a long way toward curing our most serious flaw.