SWC75
Bored Historian
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Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
BAYLOR 9-0 (318-171) Ranked: #12 (writers) /#10 (coaches)/ Sagarin: #14
Sat 11/16 Oklahoma 8-1 (436-225) Ranked: #10/#8/ Sagarin: #9
Sat 11/23 Texas 6-3 (340-276) Ranked #22/#23 Sagarin: #21
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 3-6 (232-300) Sagarin: #89
Comments: Are the Bears back? Maybe, but they have to get by Oklahoma and watch out for Texas.
CLEMSON 10-0 (453-115) Ranked: #3/#3/ Sagarin: #4
Sat 11/16 Wake Forest 7-2 (321-233) Sagarin: #52
BYE
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 4-6 (260-245) Sagarin: #49
Comments: The Tigers are the only really good team in the conference and have Wake at home. They are taking no prisoners, just as they were at this time last year. I think the questions about whether they would make the playoff even if they did were pretty silly and surely they were extinguished when Oklahoma lost. There could only be two other power conference unbeatens: the Big Ten and SEC champs. Maybe if LSU and Ohio State both lose their conference championships there might be two one loss teams that could rank ahead of Clemson. But I would still be surprised if the school that’s won two of the last three national championships would be out of it with a 13-0 record.
LOUISIANA STATE 9-0 (420-201) Ranked: #1/#1/ Sagarin: #2
Sat 11/16 at Mississippi 4-6 (262-239) Sagarin: #58
Sat 11/23 Arkansas 2-8 (223-362) Sagarin: #117
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 6-3 (310-197) Sagarin: #22
Comments: It’s hard to see these Tigers being beaten now that they’ve won at Alabama. The only regular season opponent with a winning record, Texas A&M is at home. Then comes Georgia in the SEC title game. They are no push-over but this seems to be Joe Burrow’s year.
MINNESOTA 9-0 (338-186) Ranked #7/#7/ Sagarin: #18
Sat 11/16 at Iowa 6-3 (217-105) Ranked #23/#22/ Sagarin: #16
Sat 11/23 at Northwestern 1-8 (100-229) Sagarin: #82
Sat 11/30 Wisconsin 7-2 (309-113) Ranked: #15/#15/ Sagarin: #7
Comments: This appeared to be the weakest undefeated team but they have been getting stronger as the season progresses. Now they go to Iowa and finish with Wisconsin. How will they react to being a favorite rather than an under-dog?
OHIO STATE 9-0 (459-77) Ranked: #2/#2/ Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/16 at Rutgers 2-7 (132-330) Sagarin: #138
Sat 11/23 PENN STATE 8-1 (334-108) Ranked: #9/#11/ Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 7-2 (286-154) Ranked #14/#14/ Sagarin: #11
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They won their first big confrontation with Wisconsin by 31 points. The next big game is against Penn State who they will play in Columbus. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will likely face Minnesota in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
Since App State and SMU both lost, all the one-loss non-power conference teams are now in contention for the Pesci Bowl.
APPALACHIAN STATE 8-1 (328-172) Ranked UR/#24 Sagarin: #34
Sat 11/16 at Georgia State 6-3 (324-324) Sagarin: #99
Sat 11/23 (SW) Texas State 3-6 (160-269) Sagarin: #140
Fri 11/29 at Troy 4-5 (327-289) Sagarin: #104
Comments: The Mountaineers only problem would seem to be the Georgia State game but that doesn’t scare them after the trip to South Carolina.
BOISE STATE 8-1 (319-204) Ranked: #19/#19/ Sagarin: #29
Sat 11/16 New Mexico 2-7 (211-322) Sagarin: #148
Sat 11/23 at Utah State 5-4 (254-246)Sagarin: #66
Fri 11/29 at Colorado State 4-5 (285-288) Sagarin: #107
Comments: The Broncos close with two road games but should finish 11-1. Their Sagarin rating is high but it can be bested with the big games other teams have coming up. That’s the Bronco’s problem: no big games. They’ll meet San Diego State in the conference title game but the Aztecs are not Memphis. Cincinnati or Notre Dame.
CINCINNATI 8-1 (294-189) Ranked #17/#17 Sagarin #25
Sat 11/16 at South Florida 4-5 (216-244) Sagarin #94
Sat 11/23 Temple 6-3 (238-229) Sagarin #76
Fri 11/29 at MEMPHIS 8-1 (370-232) Ranked #18/#18 Sagarin #26
Comments: The Bearcats are surging back into view, a decade after their peak under Brian Kelly. Each game will be progressively tougher, ending with a big confrontation with Memphis, the loser of which will drop out of contention for the Pesci Bowl and the winner of which is likely to be in it.
LOUISIANA TECH 8-1 (343-206) Sagarin #74
Fri 11/15 at Marshall 6-3 (236-216) Sagarin #88
Sat 11/23 at Alabama-Birmingham 6-3 (218-177) Sagarin #114
Sat 11/30 Texas-San Antonio 4-5 (174-290) Sagarin #149
Comments: The Bulldogs have the lowest Sagarin rating of any of the Pesci Bowl contenders. A lot of dominos have to fall for them to get in. And the road games at Marshall and UAB won’t be easy.
MEMPHIS 8-1 (370-232) Ranked: #18/#18 Sagarin: #26
Sat 11/16 at Houston 3-6 (276-293) Sagarin: #71
Sat 11/23 at South Florida 4-5 (216-244) Sagarin: #94
Fri 11/29 CINCINNATI 8-1 (294-189) Ranked #17/#17 Sagarin: #25
Comments: These Tigers have to win two road games and then comes the big game vs. Cincinnati. Those teams have the highest Saragins except for Boise State so if they both make it to that game unscathed the winner is a virtual lock to be in the “Middle Dance”.
NAVY 7-1 (321-145) Ranked #21/#21 Sagarin #28
Sat 11/16 at Notre Dame 7-2 (308-173) Ranked #16/#16 Sagarin #15
Sat 11/23 SOUTHERN METHODIST 9-1 (451-327) Ranked #20/#20 Sagarin #37
Sat 11/30 at Houston 3-6 (276-293) Sagarin #71
Sat 12/14 Army 4-6 (285-210) Sagarin #98
Comments: The Midshipmen usually are a strong mid-major. They will have to be to get through those next two games. But they are capable of doing it. If they do their Sagarin ratings may turn out to be the best of all.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 9-1 (451-327) Ranked: #20/#20 / Sagarin: #37
BYE
Sat 11/23 at NAVY 7-1 (321-145) Ranked #21/#21 Sagarin: #28
Sat 11/30 Tulane 6-3 (328-229) Sagarin: #45
Comments: It’s nice to see the Mustangs playing well after all they’ve been through over the years. But that trip to Navy will be a test and watch out for Tulane after that. But they can improve their positon with wins in those games.
Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams
AKRON 0-9 (92-321) Sagarin: #211
Tue 11/12 Eastern Michigan 4-5 (236-299) Sagarin: #119
Wed 11/20 at Miami University 5-4 (204-285) Sagarin: #85
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 4-5 (264-260) Sagarin: #93
Comments: They have 3 games left and none of those teams have winning records so there will be opportunities for Akron to get a win. Still, the Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.
NEW MEXICO STATE 0-9 (147-380) Sagarin: #169
Sat 11/16 Incarnate Word 5-5 (295-324) FCS Sagarin: #193
Sat 11/23 Texas-El Paso 1-8 (174-320) Sagarin: #188
Sat 11/30 at Liberty 6-4 (328-266) Sagarin: #118
Comments: the Aggies have made the “Little Dance” four times so they are old hands at this. Their schedule does not look too intimidating, (two teams are ranked even lower than they are), but do not under-estimate this school’s ability to lose football games.
RICE 0-9 (134-253) Sagarin: #156
Sat 11/16 at Middle Tennessee State 3-6 (224-280) Sagarin: #115
Sat 11/23 North Texas State 4-6 (332-344) Sagarin: #116
Sat 11/30 at Texas-El Paso 1-8 (174-320) Sagarin: #188
Comments: The Rice Owls have splashed around the Ty-D-Bol three times and this could be #4. They aren’t going to play anybody scary but they don’t need to to lose. Amazingly, UTEP is ranked behind both New Mexico State and Rice, so they both have a chance to get off the snide against the Miners. If they both do, then we are into the one win tams, so the Aggies and the Owls still wouldn’t be out of the woods – and the Miners will be in it.
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Here are the current lists:
Potential Playoff teams
BAYLOR 9-0 (318-171) Ranked: #12 (writers) /#10 (coaches)/ Sagarin: #14
Sat 11/16 Oklahoma 8-1 (436-225) Ranked: #10/#8/ Sagarin: #9
Sat 11/23 Texas 6-3 (340-276) Ranked #22/#23 Sagarin: #21
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 3-6 (232-300) Sagarin: #89
Comments: Are the Bears back? Maybe, but they have to get by Oklahoma and watch out for Texas.
CLEMSON 10-0 (453-115) Ranked: #3/#3/ Sagarin: #4
Sat 11/16 Wake Forest 7-2 (321-233) Sagarin: #52
BYE
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 4-6 (260-245) Sagarin: #49
Comments: The Tigers are the only really good team in the conference and have Wake at home. They are taking no prisoners, just as they were at this time last year. I think the questions about whether they would make the playoff even if they did were pretty silly and surely they were extinguished when Oklahoma lost. There could only be two other power conference unbeatens: the Big Ten and SEC champs. Maybe if LSU and Ohio State both lose their conference championships there might be two one loss teams that could rank ahead of Clemson. But I would still be surprised if the school that’s won two of the last three national championships would be out of it with a 13-0 record.
LOUISIANA STATE 9-0 (420-201) Ranked: #1/#1/ Sagarin: #2
Sat 11/16 at Mississippi 4-6 (262-239) Sagarin: #58
Sat 11/23 Arkansas 2-8 (223-362) Sagarin: #117
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 6-3 (310-197) Sagarin: #22
Comments: It’s hard to see these Tigers being beaten now that they’ve won at Alabama. The only regular season opponent with a winning record, Texas A&M is at home. Then comes Georgia in the SEC title game. They are no push-over but this seems to be Joe Burrow’s year.
MINNESOTA 9-0 (338-186) Ranked #7/#7/ Sagarin: #18
Sat 11/16 at Iowa 6-3 (217-105) Ranked #23/#22/ Sagarin: #16
Sat 11/23 at Northwestern 1-8 (100-229) Sagarin: #82
Sat 11/30 Wisconsin 7-2 (309-113) Ranked: #15/#15/ Sagarin: #7
Comments: This appeared to be the weakest undefeated team but they have been getting stronger as the season progresses. Now they go to Iowa and finish with Wisconsin. How will they react to being a favorite rather than an under-dog?
OHIO STATE 9-0 (459-77) Ranked: #2/#2/ Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/16 at Rutgers 2-7 (132-330) Sagarin: #138
Sat 11/23 PENN STATE 8-1 (334-108) Ranked: #9/#11/ Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 7-2 (286-154) Ranked #14/#14/ Sagarin: #11
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They won their first big confrontation with Wisconsin by 31 points. The next big game is against Penn State who they will play in Columbus. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will likely face Minnesota in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.
Potential Pesci Bowl Teams
Since App State and SMU both lost, all the one-loss non-power conference teams are now in contention for the Pesci Bowl.
APPALACHIAN STATE 8-1 (328-172) Ranked UR/#24 Sagarin: #34
Sat 11/16 at Georgia State 6-3 (324-324) Sagarin: #99
Sat 11/23 (SW) Texas State 3-6 (160-269) Sagarin: #140
Fri 11/29 at Troy 4-5 (327-289) Sagarin: #104
Comments: The Mountaineers only problem would seem to be the Georgia State game but that doesn’t scare them after the trip to South Carolina.
BOISE STATE 8-1 (319-204) Ranked: #19/#19/ Sagarin: #29
Sat 11/16 New Mexico 2-7 (211-322) Sagarin: #148
Sat 11/23 at Utah State 5-4 (254-246)Sagarin: #66
Fri 11/29 at Colorado State 4-5 (285-288) Sagarin: #107
Comments: The Broncos close with two road games but should finish 11-1. Their Sagarin rating is high but it can be bested with the big games other teams have coming up. That’s the Bronco’s problem: no big games. They’ll meet San Diego State in the conference title game but the Aztecs are not Memphis. Cincinnati or Notre Dame.
CINCINNATI 8-1 (294-189) Ranked #17/#17 Sagarin #25
Sat 11/16 at South Florida 4-5 (216-244) Sagarin #94
Sat 11/23 Temple 6-3 (238-229) Sagarin #76
Fri 11/29 at MEMPHIS 8-1 (370-232) Ranked #18/#18 Sagarin #26
Comments: The Bearcats are surging back into view, a decade after their peak under Brian Kelly. Each game will be progressively tougher, ending with a big confrontation with Memphis, the loser of which will drop out of contention for the Pesci Bowl and the winner of which is likely to be in it.
LOUISIANA TECH 8-1 (343-206) Sagarin #74
Fri 11/15 at Marshall 6-3 (236-216) Sagarin #88
Sat 11/23 at Alabama-Birmingham 6-3 (218-177) Sagarin #114
Sat 11/30 Texas-San Antonio 4-5 (174-290) Sagarin #149
Comments: The Bulldogs have the lowest Sagarin rating of any of the Pesci Bowl contenders. A lot of dominos have to fall for them to get in. And the road games at Marshall and UAB won’t be easy.
MEMPHIS 8-1 (370-232) Ranked: #18/#18 Sagarin: #26
Sat 11/16 at Houston 3-6 (276-293) Sagarin: #71
Sat 11/23 at South Florida 4-5 (216-244) Sagarin: #94
Fri 11/29 CINCINNATI 8-1 (294-189) Ranked #17/#17 Sagarin: #25
Comments: These Tigers have to win two road games and then comes the big game vs. Cincinnati. Those teams have the highest Saragins except for Boise State so if they both make it to that game unscathed the winner is a virtual lock to be in the “Middle Dance”.
NAVY 7-1 (321-145) Ranked #21/#21 Sagarin #28
Sat 11/16 at Notre Dame 7-2 (308-173) Ranked #16/#16 Sagarin #15
Sat 11/23 SOUTHERN METHODIST 9-1 (451-327) Ranked #20/#20 Sagarin #37
Sat 11/30 at Houston 3-6 (276-293) Sagarin #71
Sat 12/14 Army 4-6 (285-210) Sagarin #98
Comments: The Midshipmen usually are a strong mid-major. They will have to be to get through those next two games. But they are capable of doing it. If they do their Sagarin ratings may turn out to be the best of all.
SOUTHERN METHODIST 9-1 (451-327) Ranked: #20/#20 / Sagarin: #37
BYE
Sat 11/23 at NAVY 7-1 (321-145) Ranked #21/#21 Sagarin: #28
Sat 11/30 Tulane 6-3 (328-229) Sagarin: #45
Comments: It’s nice to see the Mustangs playing well after all they’ve been through over the years. But that trip to Navy will be a test and watch out for Tulane after that. But they can improve their positon with wins in those games.
Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams
AKRON 0-9 (92-321) Sagarin: #211
Tue 11/12 Eastern Michigan 4-5 (236-299) Sagarin: #119
Wed 11/20 at Miami University 5-4 (204-285) Sagarin: #85
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 4-5 (264-260) Sagarin: #93
Comments: They have 3 games left and none of those teams have winning records so there will be opportunities for Akron to get a win. Still, the Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.
NEW MEXICO STATE 0-9 (147-380) Sagarin: #169
Sat 11/16 Incarnate Word 5-5 (295-324) FCS Sagarin: #193
Sat 11/23 Texas-El Paso 1-8 (174-320) Sagarin: #188
Sat 11/30 at Liberty 6-4 (328-266) Sagarin: #118
Comments: the Aggies have made the “Little Dance” four times so they are old hands at this. Their schedule does not look too intimidating, (two teams are ranked even lower than they are), but do not under-estimate this school’s ability to lose football games.
RICE 0-9 (134-253) Sagarin: #156
Sat 11/16 at Middle Tennessee State 3-6 (224-280) Sagarin: #115
Sat 11/23 North Texas State 4-6 (332-344) Sagarin: #116
Sat 11/30 at Texas-El Paso 1-8 (174-320) Sagarin: #188
Comments: The Rice Owls have splashed around the Ty-D-Bol three times and this could be #4. They aren’t going to play anybody scary but they don’t need to to lose. Amazingly, UTEP is ranked behind both New Mexico State and Rice, so they both have a chance to get off the snide against the Miners. If they both do, then we are into the one win tams, so the Aggies and the Owls still wouldn’t be out of the woods – and the Miners will be in it.