The Undefeated - after Week 12 | Syracusefan.com

The Undefeated - after Week 12

SWC75

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Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Each entry is the team name, with won lost record, their points for and against, their highest ranking among the writers, coaches until the playoff committee takes over, (which means more than one team could have the same ranking – from different sources), then their ‘ART’, the points they got playing ranked teams and then their ‘RVU’, as a ranked team against an unranked team from my weekly “Against Ranked Teams” post. Games against teams on any of these three lists are in capitals. If a team is unranked or has not played a ranked team or played as one against an unranked team, those fields are not shown.

Here are the current lists:
(For this week, I needed to add the 1 loss teams into the playoff mix and the 1 win teams in the Ty-D-Bol group. I didn’t yet need 1 loss teams for the Pesci Bowl but I decided to list them anyway as they may be needed there.)

The Playoff

GEORGIA 11-0 (443-83) ranked #1 ART: +149 RVU: +105
11/27 at Georgia Tech 3-8 (288-357) ART: +5
Comments: Tech is a rivalry game and the Dawgs could have their minds on the SEC title game, where Alabama looms. But this could be Georgia’s year. Their only title was in 1980, 41 years ago.

ALABAMA 10-1 (488-217) ranked #3 ART: +107 RVU: +44
11/27 at Auburn 6-5 (333-242) ART: +51 RVU: +51
Comments: Auburn could be feisty but The Tide will be favored to be taking on Georgia in the SEC title game.

MICHIGAN 10-1 (406-179) ranked #5 ART: +35 RVU: +39
11/27 OHIO STATE 10-1 (519-209) ranked #2 ART: +125 RVU: +96
Comments: Can the Wolverines in the Big House do better than the Spartans did in the Horseshoe.? That’ a low bar to jump over but it’s a big jump from there to actually beating the Buckeyes, something Jim Harbaugh has never done as a coach.

NOTRE DAME 10-1 (378-205) ranked #6 ART: +44 RVU: +16
11/27 at Stanford 3-8 (231-344) ART: +51
Comment: This is a tiptoe through the tulips. But can they rise from 8th to the top 4? Well, they are Notre Dame and the other teams will be playing each other. Would Cincinnati be picked ahead of the Irish, who they beat in South Bend?

OKLAHOMA 10-1 (428-266) ranked #10 ART: +6 RVU: -17
11/27 OKLAHOMA STATE 10-1 (345-164) ranked #7 ART: +36 RVU: +62
Comments: The Sooners had been in low gear but finding ways to win, (their record includes a 76-0 win over Western Carolina). They ran out of rope against Baylor. The top two teams in the conference meet for the championship. Baylor is 6-2 in the conference so ‘bedlam’ may not be a double-header this year.

OKLAHOMA STATE 10-1 (345-164) ranked #7 ART: +36 RVU: +62
11/27 at OKLAHOMA 10-1 (428-266) ranked #10 ART: +12 RVU: -17
Comments: It will be hard to keep the Bedlam winner out of the playoff if Baylor doesn’t spoil the party.


The Pesci Bowl

CINCINNATI 11-0 (440-176) ranked #4 ART: +28 RVU: +43
11/26 East Carolina 7-4 (343-280)
Comments: The Bearcats are ranked #3 by the writers and coaches and have been as high as #2. They have yet to lose and could go 13-0 and yet still might get left out of the playoff. There are so many 9-1 power conference teams – 6 of them – and Cincy needs 4 of them to lose. They are probably not going to be chosen over a 12-1 power conference team.

TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 11-0 (420-221) ranked #22 RVU: +33
11/27 at North Texas State 5-6 (298-307)
Comments: Nobody knows about this team and that’s not likely to change. But if UAB is the biggest threat to their going undefeated, they’re in pretty good shape. The top teams in the other division have 4 losses.

HOUSTON 10-1 (420-221) ranked #24 ART: +14 RVU: +16
11/27 at CONNECTICUT 1-10 (179-417)
Comment: The Cougars should dance to 11-1, creating a big confrontation with the Cincinnati Bearcats. They won’t get to the playoff but they could spoil Cincy’s hopes and get to the Pesci Bowl!

LOUISIANA 10-1 (354-206) ART -15
11/27 Louisiana-Monroe 4-7 (235-381) ART -43
Comment: 9-2 App State awaits in the conference title game.

SAN DIEGO STATE 10-1 (305-191) ranked #21 RVU: +16
11/26 Boise State 7-4 (334-201) ART: +54
Comment: Boise will still be a big hurdle, maybe two. The Mountain division currently has a three-way tie between Boise, Utah State and Air Force, each with two losses Boise beat the Aggies but lost to the Falcons, who lost to the Aggies. There’s a complicated tie-breaker, currently favoring Air Force: Mountain West Football: 2021 Championship Tiebreakers, Explained

The Ty-D Bowl

ARIZONA 1-10 (191-339) ART: -6
11/27 at Arizona State 7-4 (318-236) ART: +18 RVU: +16
Comments: The finally found a team they could beat, (Cal), but that should be it for them.

CONNECTICUT 1-10 (170-417)
11/27 HOUSTON 10-1 (420-221) Ranked #24 ART +14 RVU +16
Comments: The Huskies seem headed toward oblivion. They even lost to UMASS in what ESPN called “The Pillow Fight of the Century”.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-10 (227-439)
11/27 at SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 2-9 (175-318) ART -31
Comments: The Golden Eagles hold some real possibilities for getting off of this list.

MASSACHUSETTS 1-10 (169-473) ART -41
11/27 at NEW MEXICO STATE 1-10 (227-458) ART -32
Comments: Amid all the big confrontations on that final weekend, don’t forget Florida International vs. Southern Mississippi and Massachusetts vs. New Mexico State!

NEW MEXICO STATE 1-10 (227-458) ART -32
11/27 MASSACHUSETTS 1-10 (169-473) ART -41
Comments: The were up 3-0 on Bama. I hope they took a picture of the scoreboard. (The final was 3-59).
 

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