SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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This is the point of the season when I look at the future schedules of undefeated teams to see who has the best chance to run the table and make the playoff. When the number of such teams falls below four, I chart the one-loss teams. I limit this to ‘power’ conference teams unless a ‘Group of 5’ team is in the Top ten of either the writer, coach’s or committee’s polls. I also have two fictional bowls for the two top mid-majors, (the ‘Pesci’ Bowl, named after vertically challenged but ever-feisty character actor Joe Pesci), and the two worst teams in the country, (the Ty-D Bowl, named after the Ty-D Bol toilet bowl cleaner). For the Pesci Bowl, I’ll keep track of the undefeated Group of 5 teams until there are less than two of them. Then I look at the one-loss G5 teams. For the Ty-D Bowl, I keep track of the winless teams until there are less than two of them. Then I’ll look at the 1 win teams. Rankings are by the writers/coaches/committee- when it comes out. I’ve decided to include each team’s points “Against Ranked Teams” (ART). See that post for details on how that is computed.
After WEEK 9
The Playoff contenders:
GEORGIA 8-0 (334-84) ART +61 ranking: 1/1/3
11/5 TENNESSEE 8-0 (395-168) ART +126 ranking: 2/3/1
11/12 at Mississippi State 5-3 (254-183) ART +17
11/19 at Kentucky 5-3 (191-159) ART +38 ranking: UR/24/UR
11/26 Georgia Tech 3-5 (129-225) ART -38
Comments: They don’t seem to be quite the team they were last year but if they can beat Tennessee, they might be 12-0 and in the SEC title game again.
OHIO STATE 8-0 (391-135) ART +58 ranking: 3/2/2
11/5 at Northwestern 1-7 (143-230) ART +5
11/12 Indiana 3-5 (196-245) ART -9
11/19 at Maryland 6-2 (273-193) ART +15
11/26 MICHIGAN 8-0 (328-92) ART +40 ranking: 4/4/5
Comments: It looks like it will be the Buckeyes vs. the Wolverines again, with a playoff birth on the line.
CLEMSON 8-0 (297-159) ART +55 ranking: 5/5/4
11/5 at Notre Dame 5-3 (227-177) ART +58
11/12 Louisville 5-3 (238-165) ART +43
11/19 U of Miami 4-4 (219-180)
11/26 South Carolina 5-3 (242-197) ART +3 ranking 25/25
Comments: They might not be the powerhouse of the DeShaun Watson/Trevor Lawrence era but with a strong defense and four home games left, they could run the table and get back into the playoff. A trip to Notre Dame and a rivalry game with South Carolina are their main challenges. They have a history of taking care of business down the stretch of seasons.
MICHIGAN 8-0 (328-92) ART +40 ranking: 4/4/5
11/5 at Rutgers 4-4 (161-180) ART -16
11/12 Nebraska 3-5 (217-245) ART -23
11/19 Illinois 7-1 (208-71) ART +24 ranking: 14/13/16
11/26 at OHIO STATE 8-0 (391-135) ART +58 ranking: 2/2/2
Comments: Can the Illini be the spoilers? I’m guessing not but they can play defense.
TENNESSEE 8-0 (395-168) ART +126 ranking: 2/3/1
11/5 at GEORGIA 8-0 (334-84) ART +61 ranking: 1/1/3
11/12 Missouri 4-4 (191-172) ART +35
11/19 at South Carolina 5-3 (242-197) ART +3
11/26 at Vanderbilt 3-5 (213-293) ART -82
Comments: Rocky Top is back baby! Can they beat both Alabama and Georgia in the same season?
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 8-0 (354-218) ART +93 ranking: 7/7/7
11/5 Texas Tech 4-4 (271-234) ART +9
11/12 at Texas 5-3 (291-169) ART +32 ranking: UR/UR/24
11/19 at Baylor 5-3 (307-186) ART +5
11/26 Iowa State 3-5 (173-133) ART +8
Comments: It’s a league with no bad teams and Iowa State has some famous upsets in their history.
The Pesci Bowl contenders:
COASTAL CAROLINA 7-1 (255-218)
11/3 Appalachian State 5-3 (295-193) ART +23
11/12 Southern Mississippi 5-3 (214-177) ART -12
11/19 at Virginia 3-5 (135-172)
11/26 at James Madison 5-2 (271-146)
Comments: They could lose to any of their remaining teams – or run the table.
LIBERTY 7-1 (249-172) ART +6 ranking: 23/23/UR
11/5 at Arkansas 5-3 (270-255) ART -8
11/12 at Connecticut 4-5 (158-236) ART -54
11/19 Virginia Tech 2-6 (155-198) ART +1
11/26 New Mexico State 3-5 (128-216)
Comments: If they can get past the Razorbacks, they could win their way to the Pesci Bowl.
TULANE 7-1 (269-139) ranking: 19/21/19
11/5 at Tulsa 3-5 (259-272) ART +2
11/12 Central Florida 6-2 (286-141) ART +10 ranking: 25/25/25
11/17 Southern Methodist 4-4 (285-240) ART +2
11/26 at Cincinnati 6-2 (279-179) ART: 0
Comments: The Green Wave is a blast from the past. They were one of the teams that were great before WWII but haven’t done much since. Their two big confrontations come late. Given the attrition of a football season, that may be a problem.
The Ty-D Bowl contenders:
AKRON 1-7 (158-306) ART -86
11/8 Eastern Michigan 5-3 (219-245)
11/12 BYE
11/19 at Buffalo 5-3 (247-198)
11/26 at Northern Illinois 2-6 (246-264) ART +10
Comment: The Zips have one good chance to get off this list.
COLORADO 1-7 (130-313)
11/5 Oregon 7-1 (339-227) ART +44 ranking: 8/8/8
11/11 at Southern California 7-1 (328-192) ART +5 ranking: 9/9/9
11/19 at Washington 6-2 (323-221) ART +26
11/26 Utah 6-2 (306-173) ART +18 ranking: 12/12/14
Comment: The Buffs are probably better than these other Ty-D-Bol contenders but a win by them would be a bigger upset than any of them.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-6 (84-224)
11/4 at Connecticut 3-5 (145-233) ART -54
11/12 at Arkansas State 2-6 (230-249) ART -10
11/19 at Texas A&M 3-4 (153-143) ART +68
11/26 Army 3-4 (229-206) ART -24
Comments: All their remaining opponents have losing records – but better records than UMASS, who used to have a great program when they were on the FCS level- where they still belong.
NORTHWESTERN 1-7 (143-230) ART +5
11/5 OHIO STATE 8-0 (391-135) ART +58 ranking: 3/2/2
11/12 at Minnesota 5-3 (255-115) ART -18
11/19 at Purdue 5-3 (262-204) ART +15
11/26 Illinois 7-1 (208-71) ART +24 ranking: 14/13/16
Comments: Their worst opponent is Iowa, (the only one without a winning record), and their only two home games are the ones against ranked teams. 1-11 here we come!
SOUTH FLORIDA 1-7 (204-305) ART -25
11/5 at Temple 2-6 (124-208)
11/12 Southern Methodist 4-4 (285-240) ART +2
11/18 at Tulsa 3-5 (259-272) ART +2
11/26 Central Florida 6-2 (286-141) ART +10 ranking: 25/25/25
Comment: it’s strange how this program has declined but they will have three games in a row that could get them off this list, plus a rivalry game, (although no one down there wants to admit that it’s a rivalry.)
After WEEK 9
The Playoff contenders:
GEORGIA 8-0 (334-84) ART +61 ranking: 1/1/3
11/5 TENNESSEE 8-0 (395-168) ART +126 ranking: 2/3/1
11/12 at Mississippi State 5-3 (254-183) ART +17
11/19 at Kentucky 5-3 (191-159) ART +38 ranking: UR/24/UR
11/26 Georgia Tech 3-5 (129-225) ART -38
Comments: They don’t seem to be quite the team they were last year but if they can beat Tennessee, they might be 12-0 and in the SEC title game again.
OHIO STATE 8-0 (391-135) ART +58 ranking: 3/2/2
11/5 at Northwestern 1-7 (143-230) ART +5
11/12 Indiana 3-5 (196-245) ART -9
11/19 at Maryland 6-2 (273-193) ART +15
11/26 MICHIGAN 8-0 (328-92) ART +40 ranking: 4/4/5
Comments: It looks like it will be the Buckeyes vs. the Wolverines again, with a playoff birth on the line.
CLEMSON 8-0 (297-159) ART +55 ranking: 5/5/4
11/5 at Notre Dame 5-3 (227-177) ART +58
11/12 Louisville 5-3 (238-165) ART +43
11/19 U of Miami 4-4 (219-180)
11/26 South Carolina 5-3 (242-197) ART +3 ranking 25/25
Comments: They might not be the powerhouse of the DeShaun Watson/Trevor Lawrence era but with a strong defense and four home games left, they could run the table and get back into the playoff. A trip to Notre Dame and a rivalry game with South Carolina are their main challenges. They have a history of taking care of business down the stretch of seasons.
MICHIGAN 8-0 (328-92) ART +40 ranking: 4/4/5
11/5 at Rutgers 4-4 (161-180) ART -16
11/12 Nebraska 3-5 (217-245) ART -23
11/19 Illinois 7-1 (208-71) ART +24 ranking: 14/13/16
11/26 at OHIO STATE 8-0 (391-135) ART +58 ranking: 2/2/2
Comments: Can the Illini be the spoilers? I’m guessing not but they can play defense.
TENNESSEE 8-0 (395-168) ART +126 ranking: 2/3/1
11/5 at GEORGIA 8-0 (334-84) ART +61 ranking: 1/1/3
11/12 Missouri 4-4 (191-172) ART +35
11/19 at South Carolina 5-3 (242-197) ART +3
11/26 at Vanderbilt 3-5 (213-293) ART -82
Comments: Rocky Top is back baby! Can they beat both Alabama and Georgia in the same season?
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 8-0 (354-218) ART +93 ranking: 7/7/7
11/5 Texas Tech 4-4 (271-234) ART +9
11/12 at Texas 5-3 (291-169) ART +32 ranking: UR/UR/24
11/19 at Baylor 5-3 (307-186) ART +5
11/26 Iowa State 3-5 (173-133) ART +8
Comments: It’s a league with no bad teams and Iowa State has some famous upsets in their history.
The Pesci Bowl contenders:
COASTAL CAROLINA 7-1 (255-218)
11/3 Appalachian State 5-3 (295-193) ART +23
11/12 Southern Mississippi 5-3 (214-177) ART -12
11/19 at Virginia 3-5 (135-172)
11/26 at James Madison 5-2 (271-146)
Comments: They could lose to any of their remaining teams – or run the table.
LIBERTY 7-1 (249-172) ART +6 ranking: 23/23/UR
11/5 at Arkansas 5-3 (270-255) ART -8
11/12 at Connecticut 4-5 (158-236) ART -54
11/19 Virginia Tech 2-6 (155-198) ART +1
11/26 New Mexico State 3-5 (128-216)
Comments: If they can get past the Razorbacks, they could win their way to the Pesci Bowl.
TULANE 7-1 (269-139) ranking: 19/21/19
11/5 at Tulsa 3-5 (259-272) ART +2
11/12 Central Florida 6-2 (286-141) ART +10 ranking: 25/25/25
11/17 Southern Methodist 4-4 (285-240) ART +2
11/26 at Cincinnati 6-2 (279-179) ART: 0
Comments: The Green Wave is a blast from the past. They were one of the teams that were great before WWII but haven’t done much since. Their two big confrontations come late. Given the attrition of a football season, that may be a problem.
The Ty-D Bowl contenders:
AKRON 1-7 (158-306) ART -86
11/8 Eastern Michigan 5-3 (219-245)
11/12 BYE
11/19 at Buffalo 5-3 (247-198)
11/26 at Northern Illinois 2-6 (246-264) ART +10
Comment: The Zips have one good chance to get off this list.
COLORADO 1-7 (130-313)
11/5 Oregon 7-1 (339-227) ART +44 ranking: 8/8/8
11/11 at Southern California 7-1 (328-192) ART +5 ranking: 9/9/9
11/19 at Washington 6-2 (323-221) ART +26
11/26 Utah 6-2 (306-173) ART +18 ranking: 12/12/14
Comment: The Buffs are probably better than these other Ty-D-Bol contenders but a win by them would be a bigger upset than any of them.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-6 (84-224)
11/4 at Connecticut 3-5 (145-233) ART -54
11/12 at Arkansas State 2-6 (230-249) ART -10
11/19 at Texas A&M 3-4 (153-143) ART +68
11/26 Army 3-4 (229-206) ART -24
Comments: All their remaining opponents have losing records – but better records than UMASS, who used to have a great program when they were on the FCS level- where they still belong.
NORTHWESTERN 1-7 (143-230) ART +5
11/5 OHIO STATE 8-0 (391-135) ART +58 ranking: 3/2/2
11/12 at Minnesota 5-3 (255-115) ART -18
11/19 at Purdue 5-3 (262-204) ART +15
11/26 Illinois 7-1 (208-71) ART +24 ranking: 14/13/16
Comments: Their worst opponent is Iowa, (the only one without a winning record), and their only two home games are the ones against ranked teams. 1-11 here we come!
SOUTH FLORIDA 1-7 (204-305) ART -25
11/5 at Temple 2-6 (124-208)
11/12 Southern Methodist 4-4 (285-240) ART +2
11/18 at Tulsa 3-5 (259-272) ART +2
11/26 Central Florida 6-2 (286-141) ART +10 ranking: 25/25/25
Comment: it’s strange how this program has declined but they will have three games in a row that could get them off this list, plus a rivalry game, (although no one down there wants to admit that it’s a rivalry.)