This picture is easily worth 1000 words

[cliftonparksufan]

Count how many of the most successful schools in the last ten NCAAT won't be in the tournament this year.

It really goes to show how the landscape has changed and nothing is to be taken for granted. Only the hungry survive.

 

[Brooky03]

It’s because they play zone, I bet.

 

[capeorange]

Change it to the last 5 years and we're not even in the picture.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

It’s because they play zone, I bet.

351 teams play D1. I think there are 32 automatic qualifiers and 36 at large teams selected. Basically to be an at large selection, you need to be top 36 out of 319 schools who have not won their conference tournament.

Seems pretty daunting considering how much more parity with the NIL and the transfer portal.

I think Red is going to do well. But, will the expectations be all or nothing as far as making the tournament. And no it won't surprise me if Red breaks out the zone periodically if the situation calls for it.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Change it to the last 5 years and we're not even in the picture.

It's not even a case of whether we are in the picture or not, but besides our known issues, look at how many of the other "traditional" powers are not in the picture either. Fortunately, we made our move which hopefully will position us well for the future. But coaches have a lot more to juggle now trying too be successful.

 

[capeorange]

It's not even a case of whether we are in the picture or not, but besides our known issues, look at how many of the other "traditional" powers are not in the picture either. Fortunately, we made our move which hopefully will position us well for the future. But coaches have a lot more to juggle now trying too be successful.

We're not in the picture if you look at the last 5 years because talent declined and refusal to get out of the zone.
As for other "traditional powers" also dropping out, I don't care.
I too am glad that we made our move.

 

[Orangezoo]

It’s because they play zone, I bet.

Ok Karen.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Seriously, knowing the state of decline in our program and everything, the fact that UK - recruiting a Top 3 class every year - only converted 4 more NCAAT wins is mind blowing in the extreme! Furthermore, us having more than UVA is making my head spin.

 

[upperdeck]

Some schools get in..

Some compete when they get in.

Most dont get in at all.

The top 6-8 all got in and got real high seeds as well so they should have more wins. the amount of wins SU has given our seeding is actually pretty good.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Seriously, knowing the state of decline in our program and everything, the fact that UK - recruiting a Top 3 class every year - only converted 4 more NCAAT wins is mind blowing in the extreme! Furthermore, us having more than UVA is making my head spin.

Just shows how much of crapshoot the tournament is.

The best way to get a lot of wins and a chance for titles is be there every year.

 

[tbonezone]

since 2000 16 #1 seeds have been crowned champions. 2 #2 seeds, 3 #3 seeds and the lone outlier is uconn #7 in 2014. (villanova was an 8 in 85)
tourney is nowhere near as cinderella as it is portrayed. regular season topdogs win.
those who mistakenly think somehow march only matters...longshot dreamers. .

 

[HoustonCuse]

since 2000 16 #1 seeds have been crowned champions. 2 #2 seeds, 3 #3 seeds and the lone outlier is uconn #7 in 2014. (villanova was an 8 in 85)
tourney is nowhere near as cinderella as it is portrayed. regular season topdogs win.
those who mistakenly think somehow march only matters...longshot dreamers. .

Two different concepts there being combined. March is mostly what matters. But saying that gets confused with saying it's fine to just sneak into the tournament because then you can win the only thing that matters. That is false as you point out. The reality is, March is most important AND that good teams win in the regular season and in March. Teams have good runs as lower seeds but truly contending for a championship is exceedingly rare for a team that was anything less that extremely good during the reg season.

 

[SuFTW]

since 2000 16 #1 seeds have been crowned champions. 2 #2 seeds, 3 #3 seeds and the lone outlier is uconn #7 in 2014. (villanova was an 8 in 85)
tourney is nowhere near as cinderella as it is portrayed. regular season topdogs win.
those who mistakenly think somehow march only matters...longshot dreamers. .

Cinderella runs with upsets like St Peters last year, not really referring to winning the whole thing.

 

[Scooch]

351 teams play D1. I think there are 32 automatic qualifiers and 36 at large teams selected. Basically to be an at large selection, you need to be top 36 out of 319 schools who have not won their conference tournament.

Seems pretty daunting considering how much more parity with the NIL and the transfer portal.

I think Red is going to do well. But, will the expectations be all or nothing as far as making the tournament. And no it won't surprise me if Red breaks out the zone periodically if the situation calls for it.

That's the math, but it's a bit misleading without context.

How many of those 319 schools have a snowball's chance of getting an at-large bid?

For the most part you can reduce that 319 to the Power 6 conferences and a handful of other programs every season.

So the reality for an SU is that we're one roughly ~85-95 schools competing for those 36 spots.

Tough, but less daunting.

 

[djcon57]

That's the math, but it's a bit misleading without context.

How many of those 319 schools have a snowball's chance of getting an at-large bid?

For the most part you can reduce that 319 to the Power 6 conferences and a handful of other programs every season.

So the reality for an SU is that we're one roughly ~85-95 schools competing for those 36 spots.

Tough, but less daunting.

Pin this to the top of board, please.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

It is crazy that the B1G and P12 have no titles the last 20 years.

Looking at the last 25 NCAATs, there have been 100 F4 teams. Of those…

40% were 1 seeds

60% were 1 or 2 seeds

72% were 1 or 2 or 3 seeds

80% were 1 through 4 seeds

86% were 1-5 seeds

If you want to make the Final Four you should be a Top 20 team. That accounts for 86%.

Oddly a 6 seed hasn’t made the F4. You need to go back to 1992 to find one. Also odd there have been four 11 seeds.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Since we joined the ACC there have been 8 NCAATs.

F4s by conference
7 - ACC
5 - B12, B1G, SEC
3 - Big East
2 - AAC, P12, WCC
1 - MVC

Although UConn made it in their 1st AAC season and are now back in the Big East. So current P6 schools accounted for 28 out of the 32 F4 teams.

If you go on recent history then you are going to want to have at least 3 of your 4 F4 teams come from the ACC, B12, B1G, SEC, or Big East. The last team you can get adventurous and pick from the AAC, P12, or WCC.

For tiles it breaks down as…

3 - ACC
2 - B12, Big East
1 - AAC

But if you go by current conference then only the first three have titles.

If you believe history will repeat itself then you should pick a champ from these three. If you believe that the B1G (2000 or 2002 by current), P12 (1995), and SEC (2012) are long overdue then take one as your champ.