JeremyCuse
Renowned lacrosse analyst
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Before getting into the Army game just wanted to acknowledge the great performance against Albany. I was going to do a recap but I think it's been covered pretty well in other threads so no need to re-hash everything. I will touch on some of things from the Albany game in previewing the Army game.
Much like last game this feels like another very important game for SU if not the classic "Must win" when you look at the daunting road ahead. Going into this year I knew Army would again have a potent defense but I thought they would again struggle on offense. They have gotten some excellent production from Frosh attackmen Brendan Nichtern who leads the team with 13 pts and Jr attackmen Miles Silva who is tied with middie Matt Manown in second with 8 pts. Does that mean Army's offense is a lot better then I thought, not necessarily which I will get into later. Uncharacteristically Army is struggling mightily at the X, their man FOGO Evan Condon is only 16 for 51 on the year (31%) and the #2 guy is 1-10. Army has managed to work around this thanks to a great defense led by a trio of seniors all of whom should be very familiar for SU lax fans. Goalie AJ Barretto has been at Army for what feels like a decade along with defenders Griffin Schultz and AA Johnny Surdick. The good news for SU is that trio is all graduating at the end of this season but that won't help us much on Sunday.
So what's the biggest concern for SU? - To me its clearly our offense against that Defense. Army has done an unbelievable job in forcing turnovers this year. Umass had 16, Rutgers 20, and Marist had 25 turnovers in Army's first three games. A Rutgers fan noted on their board that it felt like Army had 3 extra defenders on the field at times as they would swarm the ball carrier and play aggressive D leading to a host of turnovers. Surdick alone had 9 CTO. Syracuse is going to have to a much better job then they did in the Colgate game in turning the ball over or its going to be a very long afternoon. Apparently Rutgers had numerous unforced TO's and their offense is fairly good.
Assuming SU is decent with turnovers the second issue becomes scoring itself. Baretto has had a bit of an up an down career at Army but when he is locked in he is one of the best in the country and Surdick is probably in the top 3 of close defenders in D1. SU is going to need to showcase its depth here as whoever Surdick is covering (I assume Rehfuss or Solomon) is going to struggle to get much of anything going. I worry that the offense overall may struggle to generate points as its been shaky at best through two games and still looks like the players are trying to work things out. I think SU would be wise to push transition and any fast break opportunities that may arise to get a look before Army can get itself set up defensively. SU struggled big time offensively in the 1st half of last years game before exploding in the second half to propel the comeback win in OT. Changing angles I think will be key as Baretto owned Trimboli on that high to high shot last year and as we have seen hes struggled this year with the same issue. SU is really going to need the midfield to step up this game as the attack unit is already struggling (Voigts 6 goals not withstanding) and this is a bad matchup with Surdick and Schultz at close. Army could double pole the midfield but I don't know if they have the personnel to pull that off. Should they attempt that I assume we will see a lot of Cook at attack.
Defensively I think SU matches up fairly well. While Nichtern has been great for Army he hasn't seen any defender close to Mellen's level yet. Mellen has locked down both of his assignments to date so I have to give him the edge against Nichtern here. Bomberry should be marking their big attackmen #44. Tyson was great against Nanticoke last week, hopefully that carries over to this game. Nate Jones the main attackmen from last year has been relatively quiet this year with only 3pts on 4 shots. I don't know if he is dealing with an injury or what's going on there. Cunningham will draw him assuming they put Mellen on Nichtern which I think they almost certainly will. SU needs to be careful not to pay to much attention to the other two attackmen as Jones has had success against SU in the past and may end up being the main guy if Mellen locks down Nichtern. Sean O'Brien is the other attackmen who plays and he has actaully started all three games while Nichtern and Silva the big attackmen have been rotating starts. I suspect he will play but I expect most of the minutes to go to Jones, Nichtern and Silva. Army lost just about every starter at midfield from last years squad so its a different looking unit this year. Matt Manown is the main guy with 8pts on the year (4 and 4) and is second on the team in assists. Clearly this is Fusco/Kennedy territory as I can't imagine SU won't poll him. Unlike the last few years Army's offense is running through the attack so the midfield isn't nearly as strong as it usually is. The next guy is probably Connor DeWitt who has 3 pts on the year. SU's SSDM have been a pleasant surprise this year and I think this is a matchup they should have the advantage (at least on paper). Like Albany's middies, Army's midfieldsers aren't great dodgers outside of Manown. We need to really keep these guys locked down.
Intangibles - Give credit to Army who is 3-0 with a couple of impressive wins, winning at Rutty is not easy. Also that Defense led by the three seniors is excellent top 5 or at worst top 10 in the country. That said I am not how good the team as a whole is. Army's D has caused an absolutely ridiculous 61 turnovers this year including 25 against Marist. Yet they are only averaging 10.6 goals a game. With a D causing that many turnovers you would think their offense would be scoring 14-15 goals a game. On offense Army is turning the ball over at a pretty high clip themselves as Nichtern alone has turned it over 11 times already this year. If your struggling to score double digits when your D is generating that many more possessions for your offense I think thats definitely cause for a concern. 10 goals against Marist despite them turning it over 25 times is an enormous red flag. Faceoff play looms large as well, outside of the Rutgers game when RU was using its backup due to injury Army has been abysmal at the X. SU really should have an advantage here with the 1-2 punch of Varello and Phaup despite SU going 1-7 in the 2nd half of the Albany game. Army is a GB machine and SU after a disastrous performance against Colgate looked elite in that dept against Albany. We need another strong performance here.
As for the game itself its a tough call. Army has the better overall D in my opinion but not by a huge margin. SU is better at the X and has better depth. Offense on our end is a major concern. Team has had long scoring droughts in both games so far this year and Rehfuss has been a total non factor. Who can beat their man to cause Army to slide? Will we change angles? Will the frosh and younger guys who aren't used to playing Army get overwhelmed by their defense. Guys like Quinn and Cook and Seebold if he plays are going to have to adjust to the pressure D quickly as Army's D is the exact opposite of Albany's as Powellfan and someone else pointed out. If SU plays like it did last week I think they can and should win but I worry about turnovers and Baretto standing on his head. The knowns for SU need to match Baretto and Surdick so Mellen and Porter are going to have to play very well. I would like to see Desko use our depth a little better this game. Thought he stuck with the 1st line to long in the third quarter against Albany last week despite the struggles of Trimbo and Lipka. Speaking of Lipka this would be a great time for him to breakout.
This feels like it has the potential for a classic SU/Army score ie 9-8, 8-7, 10-9 etc. Its a game I think we really need to win when you look at whats ahead and the slip up to Colgate. I hope the team comes out and grabs it.
Much like last game this feels like another very important game for SU if not the classic "Must win" when you look at the daunting road ahead. Going into this year I knew Army would again have a potent defense but I thought they would again struggle on offense. They have gotten some excellent production from Frosh attackmen Brendan Nichtern who leads the team with 13 pts and Jr attackmen Miles Silva who is tied with middie Matt Manown in second with 8 pts. Does that mean Army's offense is a lot better then I thought, not necessarily which I will get into later. Uncharacteristically Army is struggling mightily at the X, their man FOGO Evan Condon is only 16 for 51 on the year (31%) and the #2 guy is 1-10. Army has managed to work around this thanks to a great defense led by a trio of seniors all of whom should be very familiar for SU lax fans. Goalie AJ Barretto has been at Army for what feels like a decade along with defenders Griffin Schultz and AA Johnny Surdick. The good news for SU is that trio is all graduating at the end of this season but that won't help us much on Sunday.
So what's the biggest concern for SU? - To me its clearly our offense against that Defense. Army has done an unbelievable job in forcing turnovers this year. Umass had 16, Rutgers 20, and Marist had 25 turnovers in Army's first three games. A Rutgers fan noted on their board that it felt like Army had 3 extra defenders on the field at times as they would swarm the ball carrier and play aggressive D leading to a host of turnovers. Surdick alone had 9 CTO. Syracuse is going to have to a much better job then they did in the Colgate game in turning the ball over or its going to be a very long afternoon. Apparently Rutgers had numerous unforced TO's and their offense is fairly good.
Assuming SU is decent with turnovers the second issue becomes scoring itself. Baretto has had a bit of an up an down career at Army but when he is locked in he is one of the best in the country and Surdick is probably in the top 3 of close defenders in D1. SU is going to need to showcase its depth here as whoever Surdick is covering (I assume Rehfuss or Solomon) is going to struggle to get much of anything going. I worry that the offense overall may struggle to generate points as its been shaky at best through two games and still looks like the players are trying to work things out. I think SU would be wise to push transition and any fast break opportunities that may arise to get a look before Army can get itself set up defensively. SU struggled big time offensively in the 1st half of last years game before exploding in the second half to propel the comeback win in OT. Changing angles I think will be key as Baretto owned Trimboli on that high to high shot last year and as we have seen hes struggled this year with the same issue. SU is really going to need the midfield to step up this game as the attack unit is already struggling (Voigts 6 goals not withstanding) and this is a bad matchup with Surdick and Schultz at close. Army could double pole the midfield but I don't know if they have the personnel to pull that off. Should they attempt that I assume we will see a lot of Cook at attack.
Defensively I think SU matches up fairly well. While Nichtern has been great for Army he hasn't seen any defender close to Mellen's level yet. Mellen has locked down both of his assignments to date so I have to give him the edge against Nichtern here. Bomberry should be marking their big attackmen #44. Tyson was great against Nanticoke last week, hopefully that carries over to this game. Nate Jones the main attackmen from last year has been relatively quiet this year with only 3pts on 4 shots. I don't know if he is dealing with an injury or what's going on there. Cunningham will draw him assuming they put Mellen on Nichtern which I think they almost certainly will. SU needs to be careful not to pay to much attention to the other two attackmen as Jones has had success against SU in the past and may end up being the main guy if Mellen locks down Nichtern. Sean O'Brien is the other attackmen who plays and he has actaully started all three games while Nichtern and Silva the big attackmen have been rotating starts. I suspect he will play but I expect most of the minutes to go to Jones, Nichtern and Silva. Army lost just about every starter at midfield from last years squad so its a different looking unit this year. Matt Manown is the main guy with 8pts on the year (4 and 4) and is second on the team in assists. Clearly this is Fusco/Kennedy territory as I can't imagine SU won't poll him. Unlike the last few years Army's offense is running through the attack so the midfield isn't nearly as strong as it usually is. The next guy is probably Connor DeWitt who has 3 pts on the year. SU's SSDM have been a pleasant surprise this year and I think this is a matchup they should have the advantage (at least on paper). Like Albany's middies, Army's midfieldsers aren't great dodgers outside of Manown. We need to really keep these guys locked down.
Intangibles - Give credit to Army who is 3-0 with a couple of impressive wins, winning at Rutty is not easy. Also that Defense led by the three seniors is excellent top 5 or at worst top 10 in the country. That said I am not how good the team as a whole is. Army's D has caused an absolutely ridiculous 61 turnovers this year including 25 against Marist. Yet they are only averaging 10.6 goals a game. With a D causing that many turnovers you would think their offense would be scoring 14-15 goals a game. On offense Army is turning the ball over at a pretty high clip themselves as Nichtern alone has turned it over 11 times already this year. If your struggling to score double digits when your D is generating that many more possessions for your offense I think thats definitely cause for a concern. 10 goals against Marist despite them turning it over 25 times is an enormous red flag. Faceoff play looms large as well, outside of the Rutgers game when RU was using its backup due to injury Army has been abysmal at the X. SU really should have an advantage here with the 1-2 punch of Varello and Phaup despite SU going 1-7 in the 2nd half of the Albany game. Army is a GB machine and SU after a disastrous performance against Colgate looked elite in that dept against Albany. We need another strong performance here.
As for the game itself its a tough call. Army has the better overall D in my opinion but not by a huge margin. SU is better at the X and has better depth. Offense on our end is a major concern. Team has had long scoring droughts in both games so far this year and Rehfuss has been a total non factor. Who can beat their man to cause Army to slide? Will we change angles? Will the frosh and younger guys who aren't used to playing Army get overwhelmed by their defense. Guys like Quinn and Cook and Seebold if he plays are going to have to adjust to the pressure D quickly as Army's D is the exact opposite of Albany's as Powellfan and someone else pointed out. If SU plays like it did last week I think they can and should win but I worry about turnovers and Baretto standing on his head. The knowns for SU need to match Baretto and Surdick so Mellen and Porter are going to have to play very well. I would like to see Desko use our depth a little better this game. Thought he stuck with the 1st line to long in the third quarter against Albany last week despite the struggles of Trimbo and Lipka. Speaking of Lipka this would be a great time for him to breakout.
This feels like it has the potential for a classic SU/Army score ie 9-8, 8-7, 10-9 etc. Its a game I think we really need to win when you look at whats ahead and the slip up to Colgate. I hope the team comes out and grabs it.
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