Three factors that might work in our favor against Duke

[RF2044]

The first game at Cameron was ugly, and got away from us late in the second half. Duke is playing really well, they are overflowing with NBA talent, and they are a heavy favorite for Friday night. Beating them will be an uphill battle.

BUT, there's a reason why they play the games. I doubt that anybody expected Texas A&M to whip #2 seed UNCheat by 20 last Sunday, Nevada to erase a 22 point second half deficit with only 8 minutes left to stun #2 seeded Cincinnati, or for that matter for us to take apart an MSU team that statistically was one of the top offenses in college basketball.

Obviously, the most likely outcome is that our run comes to an end this next game. But here are three factors that might work in our favor for Friday:

• Brissett and Dolezaj won't be playing Duke for the first time-- our starting forwards, both freshmen, looked like deer in the headlights in the game at Cameron. Brissett--who's been a steady contributor all season long, was held to 6 points and 2 rebouds; Marek was held to 4 /3. Was it playing against Duke? Were they intimidated by the atmosphere? Both of them have been playing well offensively the entire NCAA tournament, and likely won't be as awestruck as they appeared to be the first time they faced Duke. The moment might have been a little too big for them back in February, but it won't be this time around.

• The crowd -- Duke fans are annoying, and their antics @ Cameron can be distracting, especially when the wheels begin to fall off for the opponent. In the first game, we kept the game close until their talent got the better of us, giving their dopey fans cause for celebration as they stretched out their lead over the last part of the game. How much of an impact did that have in game 1? Hard to say, but it certainly didn't help our cause. On Friday, I'd have to believe that the majority of the crowd will be pulling for us. Other than the Duke fans, I'd expect both the Kansas / Clemson fanbases to be on our side, as well as the majority of casual fans in the arena, given how anti-Duke animus abounds. If the game is close in the second half, I'd expect the crowd to be HEAVILY behind us, as opposed to working against us. Which dove tails into factor #3...

• Duke is talented... but also inexperienced-- as talented and coveted by the NBA as the Duke frosh are, they are still frosh. What will happen if they find themselves in a dog fight late in the game, facing season ending elimination? It's funny how arseholes have a tendency to tighten up when the game's on the line, and you're not playing from comfortably ahead, where making an execution mistake isn't amplified. Grayson Allen is experienced, but nobody else on that squad is -- so who knows how their inexperienced players will react? Despite having superior talent, will they tighten up like Michigan State did?

I qualify all of the above by acknowledging that upsetting them is unlikely, but it sure isn't impossible. Anything can happen in a single elimination game. Our kids believe that they can win -- and I expect them to rise to the occasion on a national stage. Why not us?

Let's Go Orange!!!

 

[jdubs30]

Duke hasn’t won many close games this year. How will they respond to a 60-58 game with 2 minutes left,? I think we know how our guys will respond

 

[themorey]

Nice write up. I would also add to point 2 that Duke will not be getting favorable calls from ACC refs.

 

[Toga]

Think we can trip them up.

 

[Eric15]

Nobody formats a post in a more delightful and aesthetically pleasing way than RF.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Nice post! Yes. The fact that we have already endured and prevailed in THREE NCAA Tourney nail-biter games whereas Duke has coasted makes me feel a tad bit better about our chances.

 

[Lucid]

Don't
Underestimate those tough cuse
Kid's
Energy.

Syracuse
Understands that they need to stop bagley and
Carter and those
Kids know what they have to do to
Succeed.

See what I did there.

 

[CuseBBall]

Great post. I also like that they play a guard on the backline of their defense.
I have always found that our zone has been weaker playing a guard like Andrew White or Paul Harris on the back line.
Although their defense has been good since moving to strictly zone.

 

[SUOrangeSU]

I just love that we are playing with house money. Just want the guys to go out there and play "free" and no pressure.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Don't
Underestimate those tough cuse
Kid's
Energy.

Syracuse
Understands that they need to stop bagley and
Carter and those
Kids know what they have to do to
Succeed.

See what I did there.

I saw it, and I liked it!

 

[billsin01]

The first game at Cameron was ugly, and got away from us late in the second half. Duke is playing really well, they are overflowing with NBA talent, and they are a heavy favorite for Friday night. Beating them will be an uphill battle.

BUT, there's a reason why they play the games. I doubt that anybody expected Texas A&M to whip #2 seed UNCheat by 20 last Sunday, Nevada to erase a 22 point second half deficit with only 8 minutes left to stun #2 seeded Cincinnati, or for that matter for us to take apart an MSU team that statistically was one of the top offenses in college basketball.

Obviously, the most likely outcome is that our run comes to an end this next game. But here are three factors that might work in our favor for Friday:

• Brissett and Dolezaj won't be playing Duke for the first time-- our starting forwards, both freshmen, looked like deer in the headlights in the game at Cameron. Brissett--who's been a steady contributor all season long, was held to 6 points and 2 rebouds; Marek was held to 4 /3. Was it playing against Duke? Were they intimidated by the atmosphere? Both of them have been playing well offensively the entire NCAA tournament, and likely won't be as awestruck as they appeared to be the first time they faced Duke. The moment might have been a little too big for them back in February, but it won't be this time around.

• The crowd -- Duke fans are annoying, and their antics @ Cameron can be distracting, especially when the wheels begin to fall off for the opponent. In the first game, we kept the game close until their talent got the better of us, giving their dopey fans cause for celebration as they stretched out their lead over the last part of the game. How much of an impact did that have in game 1? Hard to say, but it certainly didn't help our cause. On Friday, I'd have to believe that the majority of the crowd will be pulling for us. Other than the Duke fans, I'd expect both the Kansas / Clemson fanbases to be on our side, as well as the majority of casual fans in the arena, given how anti-Duke animus abounds. If the game is close in the second half, I'd expect the crowd to be HEAVILY behind us, as opposed to working against us. Which dove tails into factor #3...

• Duke is talented... but also inexperienced-- as talented and coveted by the NBA as the Duke frosh are, they are still frosh. What will happen if they find themselves in a dog fight late in the game, facing season ending elimination? It's funny how arseholes have a tendency to tighten up when the game's on the line, and you're not playing from comfortably ahead, where making an execution mistake isn't amplified. Grayson Allen is experienced, but nobody else on that squad is -- so who knows how their inexperienced players will react? Despite having superior talent, will they tighten up like Michigan State did?

I qualify all of the above by acknowledging that upsetting them is unlikely, but it sure isn't impossible. Anything can happen in a single elimination game. Our kids believe that they can win -- and I expect them to rise to the occasion on a national stage. Why not us?

Let's Go Orange!!!

Enjoyed the post. My general feeling is it is going to be an absolutely colossal hill to climb. The one thing I kept thinking prior to MSU -- which was a pretty major upset -- was that MSU would be fine playing an ugly game which would play into our hands. Wasn't suprised it was close. Pretty surprised we closed it out but wasn't surprised that the game itself was ugly and close.

I don't get that feel with Duke. My fears are these:

1. The talent is better than MSU. Bagley and Carter aren't just great athletes, they are basketball players. Allen is a pr!ck, but he's dangerous. Duval and Trent can play. There's just more there than MSU and I fear we'll have to score at a better rate to stay in this game.

2. K with six days to prepare. We can hate the dude but he's a phenomenal coach and six days is a loooonnnngggg time.

3. Really talented teams coming together at the right time is a tough thing to deal with as an opponent. UK did it a couple years ago and has a good shot at doing it again this year. Duke is doing it right now. There's a decent chance that we could play really well and still lose by 8-10. Didn't feel that way about MSU even though I didn't think we were going to win.

What I think works in our favor are the points you mention as well as the following two:

1. We're so bad offensively that I almost would think Duke wishes it was playing man. Duke playing a zone may give us fits like it did in the first matchup, but the zone isn't always quite as effective against bad offensive teams b/c it could potentially lead to more open looks (albeit from deep or the FT line) than we've gotten in our last few weeks.


2. This team will play extremely hard and that tends to be a pain in the a$$ for almost every opponent. To me that's the x factor. The longer we keep it close, the more this becomes an issue b/c we're going to fighting for our lives like we have been most of the season. Can Duke match that intensity down the stretch? Probably but it would be hard. This team fought it's keyster off even while getting blown out by UNC in the ACC tourney. You just don't see a ton of that.

 

[kirbivore]

Duke hasn’t won many close games this year. How will they respond to a 60-58 game with 2 minutes left,? I think we know how our guys will respond

I know how the refs will respond

 

[Vorony]

Way more pressure on Duke to win this game and advance to the Final Four, as they've been built up as a title contender all year. They've seen the other favorites go down and the associated banter as a result (MSU, UNC, Virginia, Arizona, etc.). This is definitely a factor, especially for such a young team with high expectations. Will they tighten up as a result?

Cuse, on the other hand, really has nothing to lose here. We've already overachieved on this season, and a loss here wouldn't be as crushing as it would be if Duke loses. As others have said, playing with house money. We'll all be upset if we lose, but the pressure on us isn't nearly as great.

LGO!!

 

[RF2044]

Enjoyed the post. My general feeling is it is going to be an absolutely colossal hill to climb. The one thing I kept thinking prior to MSU -- which was a pretty major upset -- was that MSU would be fine playing an ugly game which would play into our hands. Wasn't suprised it was close. Pretty surprised we closed it out but wasn't surprised that the game itself was ugly and close.

I don't get that feel with Duke. My fears are these:

1. The talent is better than MSU. Bagley and Carter aren't just great athletes, they are basketball players. Allen is a pr!ck, but he's dangerous. Duval and Trent can play. There's just more there than MSU and I fear we'll have to score at a better rate to stay in this game.

2. K with six days to prepare. We can hate the dude but he's a phenomenal coach and six days is a loooonnnngggg time.

3. Really talented teams coming together at the right time is a tough thing to deal with as an opponent. UK did it a couple years ago and has a good shot at doing it again this year. Duke is doing it right now. There's a decent chance that we could play really well and still lose by 8-10. Didn't feel that way about MSU even though I didn't think we were going to win.

What I think works in our favor are the points you mention as well as the following two:

1. We're so bad offensively that I almost would think Duke wishes it was playing man. Duke playing a zone may give us fits like it did in the first matchup, but the zone isn't always quite as effective against bad offensive teams b/c it could potentially lead to more open looks (albeit from deep or the FT line) than we've gotten in our last few weeks.


2. This team will play extremely hard and that tends to be a pain in the a$$ for almost every opponent. To me that's the x factor. The longer we keep it close, the more this becomes an issue b/c we're going to fighting for our lives like we have been most of the season. Can Duke match that intensity down the stretch? Probably but it would be hard. This team fought it's keyster off even while getting blown out by UNC in the ACC tourney. You just don't see a ton of that.

I agree. Wish he didn't have all week to formulate a game plan.

 

[HakAttack]

Nice post! Yes. The fact that we have already endured and prevailed in THREE NCAA Tourney nail-biter games whereas Duke has coasted makes me feel a tad bit better about our chances.

The fact that we’re already tourney tested at this point is a huge advantage. I like our chances if it’s within a possession or two at the 4 minute media timeout.