Tracking 22 Teams Ranked Lower than Syracuse

[jncuse]

The following is a schedule of games involving teams that are at various degrees away or on the bubble. I have included all of the 14 teams that are in below us, and the 8 teams that are last out. Also added each of their games this week, as I tend to be too busy to do this during the week.

The title puts a reasonable perspective of where Syracuse is at - in very good shape. We are the 15th last team in per the Matrix**, so we need to win 1 maybe, or 2 max. (** Rankings are based on brackets that were done on Thursday and Friday, so will not match directly with the Bracket Matrix)

Some observations since last week
- We moved up from 13th last in to 15th last in. Jumped Ohio St and Texas I believe.
- Florida was the only team to move in, Indiana was the only to move out. Florida with two Q1 wins jumped from out to seventh last in.
- The bottom of the bubble was not particularly strong last week (especially the teams that were out). Because of that programs like Utah St and Furman benefit.
- Who is that that is now in on 10% of brackets... Georgetown.

This Weeks Games
- The biggest game with regards to this list tomorrow might be Wofford at Furman, as strange as that sounds. A Q1 win by Furman might put them in on the matrix next week.
- A number of schools especially in the seed lines around Syracuse with a couple of Q1 games this week.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Stellar info

 

[CusefanATL]

Gods work

 

[Sgt Cuse]

jncuse - I appreciate the updates. So it seems like with based on this it would equate to an 8 seed, right?

Could you give your ball park estimates on the optimistic side? Like if SU wins one of the big three games? two of them? What potential seed range you think do you think those equate to? (and yes, I realize it is an estimate because of so many factors in other teams performances). Thanks.

 

[Consigliere]

Excellent info, and really reinforces the fact that “tournament worthiness” is a relative not an absolute. Simply not enough teams with a good enough resume to bump us from the field barring a total collapse. Hopefully we come through tonight, put this all to rest and give you some of your life back!

Unless, of course, you want to track the roadmap to get us a protected seed...

 

[MartyCuse]

This post made my morning! I really enjoy reading your breakdowns each year. Your hard work is really appreciated!
Thanks

 

[HoustonCuse]

Great summary. The Quad stuff, I understand but still is offputting to see @UNC and @Furman being "equivalent."

 

[Cusefan0307]

Wish more posters followed the OP’s always terrific analysis.

 

[jncuse]

If you look at the 8th column you will see the results from the weekend.

Some observations:
- The 14 teams below us, that are in as of now, did fairly well. They went 10-4... if you back out head to head it was 8-2. They had 3 Q1 wins as a group. But really its three different groups
- The teams that generally did well were 10th last in and above -- they had the three Q1 wins.
- Of the 7 teams that were in the 9 last in that won, only one game was a Q2 win, the rest were generally worthless Q3 and Q4 wins. Best win for amongst the last 9 in was at Vandy... so not much there. Minnesota lost at Rutgers, but that is not considered a bad loss, just a Q2 loss. But still when you are on the bubble these Q2 games can be key.

- The teams below the line really struggled. They went 1-5, with one Q3 win, and one bad loss. Now there will likely be 2 or 3 bubble busters as usual, but that below the line is really thinning out, and certainly some of the last 8 in will lose some games.

After this weekend, I would say our chances of getting in with a 10-8 record (only beating Wake) is a little better then before because of everyone struggling below the line. Say from 75% to about 80%.

 

[Nicknack]

Thanks for all that you contribute here jncuse. You rock, man.

 

[jncuse]

Thank you all for the kudos. Taking a few hours on a Friday night / Saturday morning is somewhat relaxing from the chaos I feel at work. It is something I enjoy doing.

Tuesday is a big night beyond just Syracuse vs UNC. 4 of those 6 right around the bubble line play including 1 Q1 and 2Q2.

But let's win so we can start doing a chase the 12 teams ahead of us type thread.

 

[jncuse]

A mixed night so far tonight for other teams. (Weekly results include past weekend)

11th last in Ohio St had a Q1 win vs Iowa (1-1 for the week)

10th last in TCU had a Q2 loss at West Virginia (1-1 for the week)

2nd last in Alabama had a Q2 win at South Carolina (solid 2-0 week, with 2 Q2 wins)

3rd last out Butler had a Q2 loss at home vs Providence a non tourney team (they go 0-1 on the week)

 

[jncuse]

Other games tonight

Temple lost at Memphis
Indiana with a Q1 Win over Wisconsin (but is 14-14 legit)

As some teams have now played 2 games since Saturday, the weekly record shows how teams have done. Oklahoma has had the best week with 2 q1 wins. We are 0-2 but are SOS dwarfs other teams.

The teams above the line are generally doing OK, but the fact that teams 2nd-6th out are all 0-1 currently is quite telling.

 

[CaptainJ]

This Weeks Games
- The biggest game with regards to this list tomorrow might be Wofford at Furman, as strange as that sounds. A Q1 win by Furman might put them in on the matrix next week.
- A number of schools especially in the seed lines around Syracuse with a couple of Q1 games this week.

Is this what Syracuse fandom has become? (not really aimed at the OP as much as the state of the program)...Wofford at Furman. Let it sink in.

 

[Marty McFly]

CaptainJ we had 2 golden opportunities to move off this page, but we let them slip through our fingers like a rebound. As I said in another thread, it's really amazing we could have gone 3-0 vs "the gauntlet". But reality is we are fighting it out with the likes of Wofford, and Central Florida. Talk about a let down.

 

[jdubs30]

Ohio State wins are good for us. We’re both somewhat comfortably in itd be hard to imagine a scenario where it’s us vs them for the last spot

 

[NineOneSeven]

Great work jncuse.

If Davidson and Furman win their tourneys, I wonder if Wofford or VCU still gets in.

 

[jncuse]

Is this what Syracuse fandom has become? (not really aimed at the OP as much as the state of the program)...Wofford at Furman. Let it sink in.

No its more of a comment on how the Southern Conference has 3 fairly good teams this year which is very unusual.

 

[jncuse]

Great work jncuse.

If Davidson and Furman win their tourneys, I wonder if Wofford or VCU still gets in.

Agreed, that is why I hope they lose each time the play. The A-10 gets weaker every year.

 

[jncuse]

Update for the week

Above the line I think teams performed fairly decently. Below the line the teams performed terribly. So if there is a lack of bubble busters (or even the normal 2) we could have a really weak fiedl.

Above the line there was only 2 teams that went 0-2. Syracuse and Texas. But not all schedules are made alike. Texas had 2 Q1 losses in a tough schedule, and Syracuse went 0-2 in Q1 games in an even tougher schedule. So neither will take a nose dive, but we will certainly be ahead of Texas.

Of the teams that went 2-0, only Oklahoma had a Q1 win as part of their 2 wins. (and they had two). So that may be enough to take them off the bubble and nearly a lock at this point. But everybody else that went 2-0 was a combination of Q2/Q3 games. So while they make a push up, its not a huge push.

Syracuse certainly fell behind some at large teams however after this week.
- Oklahoma going 2-0 with 2 Q1 wins moved ahead of us and perhaps lock status.
- After that it is uncertain. Ohio St and TCU went 1-1, with a Q1 win.
- St. John's went 1-1 with a Q2 win and a Q3 loss, so they are not passing Suracise.
- The other 2-0 teams lacked the quality of win to close the gap enough.

The bubble picture really thinned out this week. Of the 8 last teams out, they played terribly as a group.
5-9
1 Q1 WIN
1-6 vs Q1/Q2 teams
3 bad losses.

Utah St went 2-0 with 2 Q3 wins. Just by winning both they separated themselves as the best team out.

San Francisco is done.
Butler is now 15-13.
Indiana is now 14-14.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Looking forward to a clean spreadsheet for the coming week!

 

[gbo]

Last in? We are so back

 

[rrlbees]

That spreadsheet and the analysis begs one question for those who think we are on the bubble or could still work our way onto the bubble. If SU doesn’t get in, who the heck do they put in?

 

[Newhouser]

That spreadsheet and the analysis begs one question for those who think we are on the bubble or could still work our way onto the bubble. If SU doesn’t get in, who the heck do they put in?

Exactly and that is why I have always said 9-9 gets us in. We are in question is at what seed. I agree that the powers that be are dying to have an SU/ UW first round match up.

 

[Vorony]

That spreadsheet and the analysis begs one question for those who think we are on the bubble or could still work our way onto the bubble. If SU doesn’t get in, who the heck do they put in?

Agreed. 1 more win should lock it. There’s just no way we tumble out of the picture, and we’re playing well right now despite the 2 losses. Hoping they come out and play with a chip on their shoulder tomorrow, given how they were hosed by the refs in the last 2 games.