Tracking the weekend games | Syracusefan.com

Tracking the weekend games

jncuse

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(See around post #5 for relevant conference tourney games)

I did not want to post this before our during the game.

Despite the loss, we are still in probably lock shape. I actually would have preferred being in the 8/9 game, because a nuisance game can only go badly. And that is where we are at. Beating a 10-15 seed does nothing for you, but losing to one could be considered a bad loss. So the win is only of value because you avoid a bad loss. All that being said do not want to create any panic at all. Even with our loss, teams like Texas and Minnesota have also already loss today.

There is still a quite unlikely doomsday scenario that involves ALL of the following:
1) Us losing a Q3 game in the ACC tourney, AND
2) The bubble playing well above normal as a whole in the conference tourneys, AND
2) A larger number than normal bracket bid stealers, AND
3) The committee respecting teams like Belmont, Murray St, Lipscomb, Furman more because they are high on the NET. (and they respect the NET more than the RPI)

Even then, it may just be a play in game.

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jncuse

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Huge wins though in the early games for TCU, Seton Hall, and Clemson. It really hurts a team like Indiana and Creighton who only have Q3 opportunities to try to catch those teams and they are getting Q1 wins.
 

Day2

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Seton hall locked up a bid.
This proves how little you know about college basketball. We have a better resume than Hall, yet you think we’re on the bubble. Either that or it proves you’re a troll.

And just to clarify, Hall is probably in. But so are we.
 

Briancuse

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This proves how little you know about college basketball. We have a better resume than Hall, yet you think we’re on the bubble. Either that or it proves you’re a troll.

And just to clarify, Hall is probably in. But so are we.
Seton hall beat UK md on the road and Mara and nova.their resume is better. If we lose wed we will be.
 

Day2

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Seton hall beat UK md on the road and Mara and nova.their resume is better. If we lose wed we will be.
They also lost to DePaul twice. We have a better record in a better conference. We have our share of quality road wins, including Duke (better than UK) and Ohio St. We beat Louisville, who beat Hall. Our NET ranking is higher.

You said we’re back on the bubble in the game thread. Make up your mind.
 

jncuse

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One of the items I noted above is bid stealers. This is more important this year I think because I am certain the Committee respects small programs in the top 50 in NET much more than the top 50 in RPI. You may remember in the past that many of the 38-50 teams in the RPI were teams from small conferences that were not even top 75 in things like KP. Basically the committee granted them no respect. Now the top 50 in NET (teams like Lipscomb, Belmont, Murray St, Furman, St. Mary's, New Mexico St.) may get more respect than normal.. just a suspicion that there may be one or two surprises from that group.

1552161459228.png


Wofford is a classic bid stealer. They will get an at-large whether they win or lose. So bubble teams certainly want them to win the conference tourney.

The interesting thing with them is their NET is currently 14th. If the committee uses NET to seed teams (but not select), as has been speculated, they could be a 5 seed.

1552162012893.png

This is the OVC title game.

Despite the similar records Belmont is clearly the preferred team to win this game as they have a moderate chance at an at-large

If Belmont loses they are still 5-3 in Q1/Q2 games (I would select them based on that, but I tend to give the favour of the doubt more than others and the committee)
If Murray St loses they are 1-5 in Q1/Q2 games.
 

jncuse

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1552162429642.png

Furman is 43 in the NET, and a loss in the quarter finals is unlikely to Mercer. They still have a slight chance at an at-large, but that would be totally dependent on the committee relying largely on NET which is not likely.

But the largest reason to wanting them out before the Southern Finals is that they are a real threat to Woffird. And Wofford needs to win the Southern.

1552162755550.png


See Furman. Basically same story, except #58 and not even a really mini shot at an large like Furman. Want them to lose to improve Wofford's chances to win the Southern.
 

HuskyHooper

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Bubble is extremely soft this year. Hope for no upsets in Pac-12, MWC, SoCon, and MAC. Also want Belmont to beat Murray State.

Seton Hall is in with their win today. TCU helped themselves a lot but probably need one more win to be comfortably in. Clemson likely in as well.

The teams I'm a little puzzled on are Texas, Iowa, and Ohio State. Why are those teams considered so comfortably in? Iowa is in free fall, I hope the committee takes into account how teams played near the end of the season. Indiana seems like the toughest resume to look at. Such great wins but awful losses.
 

jncuse

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If you guys lose your first game in the ACC tournament I'd be worried, that would put your NET in the low 40's which is the danger zone.

In the danger zone to be replaced by who? Unless there are bid stealers (more than normal) what team on the out line is coming up to take us out?

What team from a top 4 conference with an RPI below 45 has been left out ?
 

Knicks411

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In the danger zone to be replaced by who? Unless there are bid stealers (more than normal) what team on the out line is coming up to take us out?

This is kind of the thing I keep coming back to. There are so many teams behind us on the bracket matrix.
 

jncuse

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There are still a an unlikely scenarios that we can be left out. I laid it out in the first post... but it will take many things to go wrong beyond us just losing in the first game of the ACC.

The only reason to follow this now, is to basically quash that unlikely scenario. I was hoping to introduce the tracking the current 6 and 7 seeds if we had won today. Oh well.
 

jncuse

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I can't answer that until this week and see what other teams do. Seton hall just punched their bid today.

Seton Hall is vulnerable to the exact same things we are next week (see my first post) If they are a lock, we are a lock.

They have a very, very high chance of getting in however.
 

Cuse1055

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There are still a an unlikely scenarios that we can be left out. I laid it out in the first post... but it will take many things to go wrong beyond us just losing in the first game of the ACC.

The only reason to follow this now, is to basically quash that unlikely scenario. I was hoping to introduce the tracking the current 6 and 7 seeds if we had won today. Oh well.

I appreciate all the work you do, however I can’t wait for the days of when you don’t have to lol.
 

Briancuse

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You can’t answer because you’re not capable. If only we had an informed poster who could do all the homework and post the results in a thread...
I can't answer it because things change teams win and move up. If you think a loss to bc and we are 100 pct a lock I really don't know what to tell you.
 

MSOrange

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I can't answer it because things change teams win and move up. If you think a loss to bc and we are 100 pct a lock I really don't know what to tell you.

So you know we won't be in, but you don't know who will be. Brilliant Brian. This is why people get frustrated with you.
 

Briancuse

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Seton Hall is vulnerable to the exact same things we are next week (see my first post) If they are a lock, we are a lock.

They have a very, very high chance of getting in however.
I don't know who they play in the first round of the bet but if it's a bad loss they could be in trouble just like if we lose to bc. The hall has as many losses as we do the same amount of bad losses and good wins.
 

realorange

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I can't answer it because things change teams win and move up. If you think a loss to bc and we are 100 pct a lock I really don't know what to tell you.
Have you been following jncuse and his matrix determinations or not?

Please start if you haven't. Your negative chatter is becoming annoying.
 

Briancuse

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So you know we won't be in, but you don't know who will be. Brilliant Brian. This is why people get frustrated with you.
How can you answer it when games have yet to be played I do know if we lose to bc w e are in trouble.
 

Briancuse

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Have you been following jncuse and his matrix determinations or not?

Please start if you haven't. Your negative chatter is becoming annoying.
Of course and he's great at it. Things can change on a dime. Btw I never said we weren't getting in.
 

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