Troubling projections...

[annarbororange]

Many who follow intercollegiate athletics closely are aware of the Knight Commission (KC). As part of a virtual presentation yesterday, this slide was presented by a company called Navigate who works directly with the KC to collect & analyze data. To be honest, I was shocked to see these projections especially with respect to how far behind they are anticipating the ACC to fall based on media rights payouts in the next decade.

For those that might live in this world, what say you?

 

[FloridaFan]

Curious how the Pac 12 somehow makes 25 million while we make 12. Lol

 

[JRHEETER]

ACC is viewed as the weakest football conference in P5.

We generally only have 1 contender every year and that’s clemson.

Need to start getting other ACC teams consistently in the top 25 and fighting for Nattys

 

[Qbobby]

Agreed, but since the PAC is basically the MAC as far as top 25s and title chances, why are they so high?

 

[sutomcat]

View attachment 188143
Many who follow intercollegiate athletics closely are aware of the Knight Commission (KC). As part of a virtual presentation yesterday, this slide was presented by a company called Navigate who works directly with the KC to collect & analyze data. To be honest, I was shocked to see these projections especially with respect to how far behind they are anticipating the ACC to fall based on media rights payouts in the next decade.

For those that might live in this world, what say you?

They have no bump for the ACC Network. Based on what I have read, that should increase revenue for each school by at least $5 million from the start. More like $10 million a year when Comcast comes on board next year.

And more like $15 million by 2025.

Whoever made this chart is incompetent.

That said, yes, the B1G and SEC have significant advantages and they are going to further distance themselves from the ACC. But the ACC should pass the B12 and Pac12 shortly (it probably already has happened) and the gap will just continue to grow over time.

 

[Franz69]

If you look at the graph, all the other conferences have a very big leap at one point and we don't. What is that leap?

 

[longtimefan]

If you look at the graph, all the other conferences have a very big leap at one point and we don't. What is that leap?

New TV contracts?

 

[storange]

Of the things I am concerned about right now this is somewhere around 87th or 88th.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

If you look at the graph, all the other conferences have a very big leap at one point and we don't. What is that leap?

SEC has Tier 1 rights expiring while the other three P5 conferences have all 3 Tier media rights expiring.

ACC has a long term deal.

Assumption is that the historical growth rate enjoyed by re-upping expiring rights contracts is what is causing the bumps while the ACC stays flat.

 

[AngryOtto]

I know football is king when it comes to media rights but you would think all are other sports more then compete with the big 10 and SEC for programming. Basketball better, lacrosse, baseball, soccer etc we perform at or above those conferences. There are 12 to 14 football games compared to hundreds of the other sports. Maybe if ND joined it be a big help.

 

[Timonen]

Agreed, but since the PAC is basically the MAC as far as top 25s and title chances, why are they so high?

Assume maybe that size of markets is factored in and the acc has the “smallest largest market” in the mix which impacts the tv contracts? No idea, though. PAC anchored with LA and SF is strong if that’s part of the analysis. But even that assumes Houston is connected to Texas am for sec. Yeah, It’s goofy.

 

[Orijinal]

Looks like more Big12 homers

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Whoever made this chart is incompetent.

That seems harsh.

 

[Briancuse]

Curious how the Pac 12 somehow makes 25 million while we make 12. Lol

La market? Only thing I can think of.

 

[Alsacs]

The reason is because the ACC is locked into a deal with ESPN till 2035.
While the SEC and Big Ten aren’t.
PAC-12 and Big XII need a bidding war to get a lot of money but the Big Ten and SEC are going to get paid.

The long term deal though ensures the ACC has ESPN’s backing but it hurts their ability to max money.

 

[syracuse95]

"These estimates are based on historical growth rates in college and pro media rights deals"

That doesn't seem realistic. The fastest growth always comes early. Then the "Law of Large Numbers" kicks in. It's a lot harder to grow a $200m business than a $20m one.

One problem is that all those rights negotiations that they are projecting from were pre-streaming. The world of content distribution has changed and is much more fragmented. ESPN has lost subscribers every year since 2013. They've been able to make up for the shrinking revenue base by increasing carriage fees, but that will only work for so long. And more fragmented networks reduces the number of eyeballs that advertisers can expect to reach on any one platform, so I don't know how much more the networks can squeeze out of the ad spots.

They're projecting that across all conferences, total P5 conference revenues will increase over 70% in 10 years. I don't think that will happen, and it certainly isn't sustainable. The money has to come from somewhere. We're pretty close to reaching "peak sports" if we haven't already.

 

[rocklloyd]

I wanna be able to run on first down.

 

[HtownOrange]

The projections also leave out the Look-Ins every five years for the ACC. This was negotiated into the contract to ensure a more level increase as other conferences were much shorter in term.

That said, unless they are seriously underpaying everyone, the B1G is expted to grow much faster than the southeast, and the midwest is going to become a travel destination, I don't see how the B1G can be expected to grow so much.

 

[TexanMark]

The reason is because the ACC is locked into a deal with ESPN till 2035.
While the SEC and Big Ten aren’t.
PAC-12 and Big XII need a bidding war to get a lot of money but the Big Ten and SEC are going to get paid.

The long term deal though ensures the ACC has ESPN’s backing but it hurts their ability to max money.

Ratings...gotta watch those

We'll see if ESPN, etc...will pull an Under armour. The SEC and B1G might not meet these projections

 

[PhatOrange]

LOL...10 years from now? yeah ok

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Where’s the Big East on that chart?

 

[sutomcat]

That seems harsh.

When you forget the revenue of the ACCN, you are not competent. They did an awful job.

 

[reedny]

The ACC's revenue slope (+$5M - $10M annually) is based on its long-term deal with ESPN, expiring in 2035-36. Other P5 conference deals are shorter ... for example the B1G's agreement was 6 years (expiring around 2024). So the 'hockey stick' projections reflect new deals expected to be negotiated at contract expiration. Those expectations are already turning out to be naive. For example, the B1G lost revenue this year because of its cancellation of OOC games. The chart also doesn't reflect the expansion of the ACC NW when Comcast comes on board. These changes will affect revenue trends, possibly dramatically.

http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2020/01/05/the-acc-is-in-a-potential-revenue-dilemma-yet-again/

Also, the chart's 2019 data point for the ACC versus the Big12 is incorrect. From what I can gather, the ACC ($464.7M) passed the B12 ($373.9) in 2017-18, based on the form 990's they filed. https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article230980543.html And it was still ahead in revenue this past year: 2018-19 B1G $781M; SEC $721M; ACC $455M; Pac-12 $530M; BIG-12 $439M

Power Five conferences had over $2.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2019, new tax records show

The Big Ten reported more than $780 million in revenue, most of any conference, as Power Five had more than $2.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2019.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Bornorange]

TV MONEY. Here in Pittsburgh we have Comcast and Fios. I can watch the Big Ten Network, SEC Network and BIG 12, but neither has the ACC network. Pretty sure most of my fellow Western Pennsylvanians would swap Texas v Texas St. for Pitt v Syr. I use youtube tv.

 

[Entropic]

Question is where is my payout for staying loyal to Syracuse all these years. Gotta be worth something right?