Turnovers Forced - 2018 vs. 2021

[LeMoyneCuse]

One of the big reasons Cuse went 10-3 in 2018 was because of the number of turnovers forced.

Through 8 games in 2018, Syracuse had forced 18 turnovers and went 6-2 in that span.

This year, Syracuse has forced 6 turnovers and gone 4-4. Basically flipping from one side of the bell curve to the other.

This isn't to say that Cuse needs to force more turnovers - turnovers are very luck-based and are hard to replicate year over year. That said, while I don't have advanced stats on this, it seems likely that an additional turnover or two going Cuse's way would have turned the tide against either Florida State, Clemson, or Wake Forest. One turnover, the fumble recovery against Liberty, did save the game.

Just an interesting thing.

 

[JRHEETER]

One of the big reasons Cuse went 10-3 in 2018 was because of the number of turnovers forced.

Through 8 games in 2018, Syracuse had forced 18 turnovers and went 6-2 in that span.

This year, Syracuse has forced 6 turnovers and gone 4-4. Basically flipping from one side of the bell curve to the other.

This isn't to say that Cuse needs to force more turnovers - turnovers are very luck-based and are hard to replicate year over year. That said, while I don't have advanced stats on this, it seems likely that an additional turnover or two going Cuse's way would have turned the tide against either Florida State, Clemson, or Wake Forest. One turnover, the fumble recovery against Liberty, did save the game.

Just an interesting thing.

While turnovers are somewhat luck based…..you have to put yourself in position to greater your chances.

Im not saying we need as many TOs as we did in 2018 but 1-2 a game would go ALONG way into helping this team finish out the season and picking up a couple wins

 

[HRE Otto IV]

One of the big reasons Cuse went 10-3 in 2018 was because of the number of turnovers forced.

Through 8 games in 2018, Syracuse had forced 18 turnovers and went 6-2 in that span.

This year, Syracuse has forced 6 turnovers and gone 4-4. Basically flipping from one side of the bell curve to the other.

This isn't to say that Cuse needs to force more turnovers - turnovers are very luck-based and are hard to replicate year over year. That said, while I don't have advanced stats on this, it seems likely that an additional turnover or two going Cuse's way would have turned the tide against either Florida State, Clemson, or Wake Forest. One turnover, the fumble recovery against Liberty, did save the game.

Just an interesting thing.

The INTs are way down. IMO those aren't as luck based as a fumble. Although one could argue that Mikel getting 4 INTs last year involved some luck. For DBs though I think it is a lot less random. San Diego State was good at getting INTs. ASU was so so. Gotta think our Safeties being young is keeping those down.

vs the P5

2021 5 games 2 INTs 0.4 pg
2020 10 games 13 INTs 1.3 pg
2019 9 games 10 INTs 1.11 pg
2018 9 games 11 INTs 1.22 pg

 

[Chip]

We don't seem to have the same ball hawks in the secondary. Turnovers do tend to be more luck based, but teams that rush the passer well probably have a higher #. Forcing bad throws, sacks of QBs lead to more likely fumbles than punching it out of an RBs hands.

Combine that with kicker/punter being well below the standards we've set for ourselves.

It's offset by being #4 in the country in rushing TDs (which seems as crazy as it sounds given our recent history). Last year we were #115. In 2019 we were #91.

 

[JDubbin]

However, from my perspective this team tackles SIGNIFICANTLY better than any in recent memory. Turnovers are a variable that is hard to predict/control… tackles are not. It’s so nice to not have that same frustration yelling at the TV when an opposing player looks like they’ll be tackled for a loss & it turns into a massive gain.

 

[RandomGuy]

Which do we prefer?

We are currently ranked #27 in total defense.

2018 we were ranked #105 in total defense.

I'll take a sound defense over one that takes more chances. Obviously, more to the rankings, but ill take consistently good.

 

[upperdeck]

QBs can be forced/rushed into bad throws. sometimes they go to DBs sometimes they go to the ground.. QBs can be loose with the ball.

We have dropped a few, we have had several called back because of penalties on the D too. Some of our drops came in spots that really hurt.

We have not seen too many just bad throws against us though.. I mean like the Clemson pick Shrader threw, just a bad decision.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Which do we prefer?

We are currently ranked #27 in total defense.

2018 we were ranked #105 in total defense.

I'll take a sound defense over one that takes more chances. Obviously, more to the rankings, but ill take consistently good.

2018 was 88th in yards per game D not 105th.

Yards allowed is a stat that gets skewed by number of plays. It also gets skewed by who you play OOC.

In ACC conference games

2018
YPG 419.4 (7th)
YPP 5.62 (6th)
TOs 21 in 8 games

2021
YPG 388.8 (4th)
YPP 5.65 (5th)
TOs 3 in 4 games

So the 2018 D allowed less yards per play that the 2021 D. They also produced 3.5x the amount of TOs.

 

[money3189]

You can put your self into position to get takeaways. Have to understand takeaway opportunities. Film study helps, takeaway stations build muscle memory and technique. Playing good aggressive defense causes teams to make mistakes. Sometimes teams do a good job of protecting the ball. Sometimes its luck but its a small percentage.

 

[upperdeck]

2018 was 88th in yards per game D not 105th.

Yards allowed is a stat that gets skewed by number of plays. It also gets skewed by who you play OOC.

In ACC conference games

2018
YPG 419.4 (7th)
YPP 5.62 (6th)
TOs 21 in 8 games

2021
YPG 388.8 (4th)
YPP 5.65 (5th)
TOs 3 in 4 games

So the 2018 D allowed less yards per play that the 2021 D. They also produced 3.5x the amount of TOs.

you could also say the TOs skewed the yds way down in 2018 since so many takeaways are what stopped drives and pts. Say you had the same game but turnovers just became dead plays and INT was just an incomplete pass. thats a whole bunch of drives that continue and even if the YPP plays stays the same the YPG goes way up. Turnover luck can skew a avg D to looking pretty good and a Good D to just being Good. you take the 6-8 Ints that we dropped or got called back and look at how those drives ended and thats probably 30-40 pts off the board on the D and we still have way less than 2018 but the numbers look much better. It doesnt take much sometimes

 

[RandomGuy]

2018 was 88th in yards per game D not 105th.

Yards allowed is a stat that gets skewed by number of plays. It also gets skewed by who you play OOC.

In ACC conference games

2018
YPG 419.4 (7th)
YPP 5.62 (6th)
TOs 21 in 8 games

2021
YPG 388.8 (4th)
YPP 5.65 (5th)
TOs 3 in 4 games

So the 2018 D allowed less yards per play that the 2021 D. They also produced 3.5x the amount of TOs.

I checked overall. (As it was through 8 games) And yes, half OOC. 18 TOs to 4 TOs.

2018
444 ypg. (Nice?)
6.4 YPP

NCAA College Football FBS 2018 team Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I checked overall. (As it was through 8 games) And yes, half OOC. 18 TOs to 4 TOs.

2018
444 ypg. (Nice?)
6.4 YPP

NCAA College Football FBS 2018 team Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

That is the 2017 team. Those stats are as of January 2018. Which is why we only had 12 games listed.

 

[texascpa]

We also had a Freshman All-American Safety with I believe 5 INTs at that point in 2018. Our current safeties are not at that level.

 

[All4SU]

Without doing any research, or investing an inordinate amount of brain resources, maybe we played more inexperienced QBs in 2018.

 

[Cuse'91]

Agree, it's the safety unit. That's the missing link as to turnover discrepancy.

 

[RandomGuy]

That is the 2017 team. Those stats are as of January 2018. Which is why we only had 12 games listed.

Lol. While we all call it 2018, I should know better to think the NCAA would list it like the rest of the world.
I'm enjoying our 2022 season.

 

[sufandu]

Some guys just have a nack for picking off the ball. Cisco was one of those. If it was mostly luck, he wouldn't have replicated his freshman year. Accounting for injuries, he was just as productive as a sophomore and junior and the guys that replaced him last year and are playing this year don't have the same nack.

It would be nice to get more. I think I remember us getting a bunch in 2019 too, but the offense was so bad we couldn't capitalize. This year we have the offense to take advantage of them.

 

[money3189]

Some guys just have a nack for picking off the ball. Cisco was one of those. If it was mostly luck, he wouldn't have replicated his freshman year. Accounting for injuries, he was just as productive as a sophomore and junior and the guys that replaced him last year and are playing this year don't have the same nack.

It would be nice to get more. I think I remember us getting a bunch in 2019 too, but the offense was so bad we couldn't capitalize. This year we have the offense to take advantage of them.

good points

 

[syrBossHogg]

After yesterday's games we're last in the ACC in turnovers forced per game (0.7)

Our opponents are also committing the fewest penalties against us (4.0 for 39.9 yards)

However, we're 1st in the ACC in total yards given up (318.8) and 2nd in yards given up per play (4.8)

Pretty encouraging

 

[721Comstock]

After yesterday's games we're last in the ACC in turnovers forced per game (0.7)

Our opponents are also committing the fewest penalties against us (4.0 for 39.9 yards)

However, we're 1st in the ACC in total yards given up (318.8) and 2nd in yards given up per play (4.8)

Pretty encouraging

Yeah - having those last 2 stats be soooo good, without benefit of forcing TO’s, is remarkable, bordering on amazing.

2018 gave up a crapton of yards, but got timely 3rd down stops and LOTS of turnovers to end drives.

 

[money3189]

After yesterday's games we're last in the ACC in turnovers forced per game (0.7)

Our opponents are also committing the fewest penalties against us (4.0 for 39.9 yards)

However, we're 1st in the ACC in total yards given up (318.8) and 2nd in yards given up per play (4.8)

Pretty encouraging

Yup, goes to show that we are more consistent in our fits and have become less dependent on take aways. Hopefully we start getting some after the bye week.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Yeah - having those last 2 stats be soooo good, without benefit of forcing TO’s, is remarkable, bordering on amazing.

2018 gave up a crapton of yards, but got timely 3rd down stops and LOTS of turnovers to end drives.

The downside is we've played some bad offenses (Rutgers, Ohio, BC, VT, FSU, Clemson), but you can only play who's in front of you.

Garrett and Kinglsey being back helps a bunch

 

[upperdeck]

well we caused like 3 fumbles yesterday but got none.. hard to get picks when all the throws were 10 yds over peoples heads I guess.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Yeah - having those last 2 stats be soooo good, without benefit of forcing TO’s, is remarkable, bordering on amazing.

2018 gave up a crapton of yards, but got timely 3rd down stops and LOTS of turnovers to end drives.

Part of the 2018 magic was also that we had very few empty possessions on offense. Lots of TDs, but a bunch of field goals too. We put a lot of pressure on other teams to put their own points on the board and I think that gave us some turnover opportunities that might not normally be there.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

After yesterday's games we're last in the ACC in turnovers forced per game (0.7)

Our opponents are also committing the fewest penalties against us (4.0 for 39.9 yards)

However, we're 1st in the ACC in total yards given up (318.8) and 2nd in yards given up per play (4.8)

Pretty encouraging

That was ultimately my point in the initial post - the team is still in games, despite the lack of forced turnovers.