Two Point Attempts vs. Fouls

[SWC75]

SU94 suggested a new way to look at the stats on fouls. A team that goes to the basket for most of its points is likely to get fouled more than a team that relies more on its perimeter game. Therefore, a team that attempts more two point shots should get fouled more than a team that attempts fewer of them (if there is a significant difference).


There are some obvious problems with this:

1) You can get fouled on a three pointer.

2) The foul is not always on the offensive player, (no kidding)

3) Not all fouls come on shot attempts.

4) Not all fouls are the result of the offensive team’s strategy. They may be the result of the defensive player’s technique.


Nonetheless, the concept still seemed interesting. It does seem logical that the more two pointers a team attempts the more they will get fouled. I decided to look at it by checking the number fo two pointers attempted for each team this season, the number of fouls called on the other team and then figuring out the percentage of the two numbers.


Non-Conference games:

Syracuse 36 vs. 16 (.444) Cornell 22 vs 13 (.591) Minus .147

Syracuse 49 vs. 30 (.612) Fordham 21 vs. 25 (1.190) Minus .578

Syracuse 44 vs. 20 (.408) Colgate 19 vs. 10 (.526) Minus .118

Syracuse 45 vs. 20 (.444) St. Francis 30 vs. 16 (.533) Minus .089

Syracuse 43 vs. 18 (.418) Minnesota 30 vs. 16 (.533) Minus .115

Syracuse 44 vs. 21 (.477) California 33 vs. 20 (.606) Minus .129

Syracuse 47 vs. 15 (.319) Baylor 28 vs. 13 (.464) Minus .145

Syracuse 34 vs. 19 (.559) Indiana 27 vs. 23 (.852) Minus .293

Syracuse 36 vs. 18 (.500) Binghamton 28 vs. 23 (.821) Minus .321

Syracuse 36 vs. 22 (.611) St. John’s 41 vs. 21 (.512) Plus .099

Syracuse 41 vs. 15 (.366) High Point 28 vs. 8 (.286) Plus .080

Syracuse 32 vs. 27 (.844) Villanova 19 vs. 18 (.947) Minus .103

Syracuse 37 vs. 19 (.514) Eastern Michigan 26 vs. 12 (.462) Plus .052


ACC games:

Syracuse 32 vs. 11 (.344) Miami 21 vs. 11 (.524) Minus .180

Syracuse 38 vs. 15 (.395) Virginia Tech 25 vs. 17 (.680) Minus .285

Syracuse 43 vs. 17 (.395) Boston College 13 vs. 8 (.615) Minus .220

Syracuse 41 vs. 14 (.341) North Carolina 39 vs. 8 (.205) Plus .136

Syracuse 26 vs. 17 (.654) Pittsburgh 33 vs. 14 (.424) Plus .240

Syracuse 36 vs. 20 (.556) Miami 29 vs. 11 (.379) Plus .177

Syracuse 44 vs. 23 (.523) Wake Forest 33 vs. 22 (.667) Minus .144

Syracuse 50 vs. 25 (.500) Duke 36 vs. 15 (.417) Plus .083

Syracuse 31 vs. 15 (.484) Notre Dame 31 vs. 15 (.484) Even

Syracuse 41 vs. 10 (.244) Clemson 26 vs. 11 (.423) Minus .179

Syracuse 28 vs. 16 (.571) Pittsburgh 31 vs. 16 (.516) Plus .055

Syracuse 42 vs. 18 (.429) NC State 42 vs. 14 (.333) Plus .096

Syracuse 50 vs. 19 (.380) Boston College 27 vs. 12 (.444) Minus .064

Syracuse 53 vs. 15 (.283) Duke 27 vs. 20 (.740) Minus .457


Comment: Syracuse on the season has attempted more two point shots than its opponent 22 times. They’ve attempted fewer two point shots three times, (St. John’s and the Pittsburgh games) and had two even, (Notre Dame and NC State). We’ve been the most fouled team 19 times compared to 5 for the opposition (Indiana, Binghamton, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Duke II), and even three times, (Miami I, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh II). But the opposition’s ratio of two point attempts to fouls has been higher than ours 16 times with one even. On average, we’ve attempted 40 two pointers and been fouled 18 times. The overall percentage is .459 (1079 vs. 495). Our opposition has attempted an average of 28 two pointers and been fouled an average of 15 times for a percentage of .539, (765 vs. 412). So, while we have attempted more two pointers and been fouled more, the percentages do not suggest we are more likely to get fouled because of the two point attempts.


In the 13 non-conference games we attempted more two pointers 12 times and got fouled more 11 times. We averaged 40 vs. 20 with a percentage of .496, (524 vs. 260). The opposition averaged 27 vs. 17 with a percentage of .619.


In the14 conference games we’ve had more two point attempts 10 times, fewer twice and two games were even. We’ve been fouled more 8 times, fewer 3 times with 3 even. We’ve averaged 40 vs. 17 with a percentage of .423, (555 vs. 235). Our opposition has averaged 29.5 vs. 14 with a percentage of .470.


At this point, I’m not sure what I feel about this stat. I see no referee conspiracy vs. Syracuse in these numbers but I’m not sure they are irrelevant, either. I think probably a better pattern would emerge if I took the time to go through the play-by-play records of each game and determine how many of those fouls were on two point shot attempts. That would also give us the actual number of two point shot attempts, since if there was foul the player would not be credited with the attempt, (because he isn’t being charged with the miss due to the foul). It would also take a good deal more time than I have at the moment.


The differences between the pre-conference and conference numbers is interesting. It may not seem like it but fewer fouls are being called and our percentage of fouling the other team vs. their number of two point attempts has dropped considerable. I think this may be because we were playing more players who weren’t ready for this level of competition and the opposition had more players who aren’t good enough for this level of competition and thus those players committed more fouls.


The second Duke game had the largest deficit between the percentage of our two pointers vs. fouls and their of the conference season and the second largest of the year, (Fordham was the largest). And the difference between the first Duke game and the second, (Plus .083 vs. Minus .457) still seems large enough to be significant.

 

[Cheriehoop]

The discrepancy in last night's game with us being fouled 28% of the time going to the basket to Duke's 74% I bet is way outside the realm of normal probability in mathematical analysis. Hmm

 

[SWC75]

The discrepancy in last night's game with us being fouled 28% of the time going to the basket to Duke's 74% I bet is way outside the realm of normal probability in mathematical analysis. Hmm

Of course I'm using total fouls form the box score rather than fouls specifically called on two point shot attempts but I'll be there's a similar discrepancy there.

 

[EnnisEnvy]

I tried pointing out that a player will more likely get fouled on a 2 than a 3 just by the nature of the shot, having more defenders in the key area, posting up plays vs generally just closing out on a 3 pt shooter. Granted, not all fouls are called on shots and it is hard to say just by FT quantity what the shot foul numbers are given bonus situations. My point was that when a team shoots a high quantity of 3s , like Duke did in the first game (50% of total shots taken), they will not get as many fouls called.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Of course I'm using total fouls form the box score rather than fouls specifically called on two point shot attempts but I'll be there's a similar discrepancy there.

Some mathematician out there could determine the scientific probability (or improbability) of that huge foul discrepancy.

 

[Libero2]

The discrepancy in last night's game with us being fouled 28% of the time going to the basket to Duke's 74% I bet is way outside the realm of normal probability in mathematical analysis. Hmm

I just think its interesting that the Duke game was the largest discrepancy between 2 teams all year (on our schedule) and it was our lowest % of calls received vs. 2 pt shots all season.

I also find it interesting of the of the top 6 percentages (i picked 6 because Duke's was 6th) in fouls per 2 pt shots 5 of those 6 have been in favor of our opponent and only one of those % has been ours.

1. Fordham 21 vs. 25 (1.190)
2. Villanova 19 vs. 18 (.947)
3.Indiana 27 vs. 23 (.852)
4. Syracuse 32 vs. 27 (.844) (Nova Game)
5. Binghamton 28 vs. 23 (.821)
6. Duke 27 vs. 20 (.740) (Round 2 at Cameron)

 

[Toga]

I think probably a better pattern would emerge if I took the time to go through the play-by-play records of each game and determine how many of those fouls were on two point shot attempts. That would also give us the actual number of two point shot attempts, since if there was foul the player would not be credited with the attempt, (because he isn’t being charged with the miss due to the foul).

Come on you can do it.

 

[SWC75]

After a much-needed nap, I have taken a look at the Duke II play-by-play:
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=400502872

Here are the occasions when a foul led to two free throw attempts:

1ST HALF

19:01 Christmas fouls Parker Fouls: SU 1 Duke 0
13:31 Dawkins fouls Gbinije SU 1 Duke 1
7:58 Christmas fouls Plumlee SU 2 Duke 1
6:11 Dawkins fouls Ennis SU 2 Duke 2
5:31 Fair fouls Sulaimon SU 3 Duke 2
4:24 Hood fouls Grant SU 3 Duke 3
1:30 Gbinije fouls Hood SU 4 Duke 3

19:40 Christmas fouls Jefferson SU 5 Duke 3
16:20 Christmas fouls Parker SU 6 Parker 3
11:50 Cook fouls Ennis SU 6 Duke 4
10:32 Gbinije fouls Parker SU 7 Duke 4
2:36 Parker fouls Grant SU 7 Duke 5
0:24 Fair fouls Sulaimon SU 8 Duke 5
0:09 Grant fouled Thorton SU 9 Duke 5
0:04 Cook fouled Ennis SU 9 Duke 6
0:03 Cooney fouled Thornton SU 10 Duke 6

I've not re-watched the game and other than the charge on fair, the block on Gbinije and the flagrant 1 foul, I don't recall the circumstances of the fouls. The first half fouls were 9-6 so all the Duke fouls listed would have been on two point shots. The Dawkins foul on Gbinije at 13:31 was the flagrant 1 foul and didn't involve a field goal attempt. The Gbinije foul on Hood at 1:30 was on the 9th foul and could have been a one on one rather than a fouled shot. The second half fouls were 11-9. The 0:24 foul by Fair was 15 seconds after Duke got that possession so I don't think that one was intentional But it was the 9th foul and could have been a one and one. The 0:09 and 0:03 fouls by Cooney and Grant were clearly intentional. Thus the count of fouls that were surely on two point field goal attempts is SU 6 Duke 5. The two point shots were officially 53-27 so if you add those fouls it become 59-32 and the SU percentage of two point attempts to fouls called on Duke on those attempts would be 5/59 = 8.5%. The percentage of Duke's two point attempts to the fouls called on SU is 6/32 = 18.8%.

But perhaps the most significant number is that only 11 of 35 fouls in the game were on two point field goal attempts. So the assumption that you can look at a box score and compare total fouls called to two point field goal attempts to determine how the game was called appears to be a bit too optimistic.