Up three with about 17 seconds left - do you foul? | Syracusefan.com

Up three with about 17 seconds left - do you foul?

CuseFaninVT

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I believe this has been debated before, but I can't remember if JB is a foul guy, or let it play out. But it really doesn't matter what JB does.

Here's the scenario. Hometown team hits a banked three to go up, then a couple foul shots put us up 3. Just under 17 seconds to go. We've got 8 fouls. I turn to my buddy and say you have to foul here. Put them on the line just after they cross half court, make them shoot the 1 and 1.

Our coach chose poorly. (might need to open incognito so they don't try to get you to sign up)

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com...ngton-late-3-pointers-wins-buzzer/2750112002/
 

orange79

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I believe this has been debated before, but I can't remember if JB is a foul guy, or let it play out. But it really doesn't matter what JB does.

Here's the scenario. Hometown team hits a banked three to go up, then a couple foul shots put us up 3. Just under 17 seconds to go. We've got 8 fouls. I turn to my buddy and say you have to foul here. Put them on the line just after they cross half court, make them shoot the 1 and 1.

Our coach chose poorly. (might need to open incognito so they don't try to get you to sign up)

VIDEO: Essex stuns South Burlington with late 3-pointers to win at buzzer
Foul - as long as you're not fouling them on a 3 pt shot. ;)

I think JB has changed in this respect. Earlier in his career he wouldn't foul, but in the last few seasons, he has.

If anyone has a different memory of his not fouling, feel free to correct me.
 

CuseFaninVT

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Foul - as long as you're not fouling them on a 3 pt shot. ;)

I think JB has changed in this respect. Earlier in his career he wouldn't foul, but in the last few seasons, he has.

If anyone has a different memory of his not fouling, feel free to correct me.

That sounds correct to me as well. I'm guessing he did the math and came to the same conclusion you and I have. Or he did the math and we followed him. Either way, really wish I had been on the bench helping coach last night. Just for that play of course.
 

orangetom

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Way too much time left on the clock. You wait until 5 seconds left.
I agree. Too much time left. Clemson fouled NCSt with about 9 seconds left and it backfired on them. Of course, they had an 80% free throw shooter miss two. The nine seconds allowed NCSt to get off a decent three and win the game.
 

tbonezone

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too early. often discussed. i think even JB flipped on this late foul philosophy.
 

jncuse

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Sorry but fouling with 17 seconds left is terrible strategy. Way too much time for them to get the ball back down only 2. 7 seconds or less and it makes sense.

You want to foul at a point that if you miss one free throw than them they do not have to much time left down 2 points. At 17 seconds, they could get the ball back with around 13 seconds or more to tie with a 2.
 

City of Cuse

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Michigan state game is all you have to look at if you want his philosophy.
 

Ryand877

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Foul - as long as you're not fouling them on a 3 pt shot. ;)

I think JB has changed in this respect. Earlier in his career he wouldn't foul, but in the last few seasons, he has.

If anyone has a different memory of his not fouling, feel free to correct me.
I agree that he used to be a no foul and has changed over the past few years. If memory serves me correctly , we lost a game in overtime to Villanova in 2013. I think they hit a three with little time left To tie and it went to overtime and we lost. That game for me was What changed my mind from a not foul to foul In that situation.
 

OrangeDW

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I agree that he used to be a no foul and has changed over the past few years. If memory serves me correctly , we lost a game in overtime to Villanova in 2013. I think they hit a three with little time left To tie and it went to overtime and we lost. That game for me was What changed my mind from a not foul to foul In that situation.

We lost to Clemson at the Dome a few years ago when they hit a 3 to tie it and put it in OT. There was a ton of “Syracuse should’ve fouled” discussion.
 

CuseFaninVT

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Sorry but fouling with 17 seconds left is terrible strategy. Way too much time for them to get the ball back down only 2. 7 seconds or less and it makes sense.

You want to foul at a point that if you miss one free throw than them they do not have to much time left down 2 points. At 17 seconds, they could get the ball back with around 13 seconds or more to tie with a 2.

You missed the part where I said you wait until they cross the half court line. It was under 17 when they took the ball out. Would have been under 13 when they finally got it across and we should have fouled. I also forgot to mention they had 9 fouls, so after they took their foul shots, they would still be down 1 and would have had to foul. Which means 2 shots for us.

I still say they should have fouled.
 

OrangeDW

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You missed the part where I said you wait until they cross the half court line. It was under 17 when they took the ball out. Would have been under 13 when they finally got it across and we should have fouled. I also forgot to mention they had 9 fouls, so after they took their foul shots, they would still be down 1 and would have had to foul. Which means 2 shots for us.

I still say they should have fouled.

The time makes it tough though.

Just IMO...Ideally, you play tough defense long enough to prevent them from getting a clean look and then foul once the time gets under 7 seconds.

That requires a super aware team though, and a very strong defensive effort, and I’m not even sure a lot of D-1 teams could pull that off correctly.

Lots of variables though. Does your team have a great FT shooter that you can pretty much guarantee will go to the line and hit 2 and keep the lead at 3 if the other team makes their FTs?
 

CuseFaninVT

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The time makes it tough though.

Just IMO...Ideally, you play tough defense long enough to prevent them from getting a clean look and then foul once the time gets under 7 seconds.

That requires a super aware team though, and a very strong defensive effort, and I’m not even sure a lot of D-1 teams could pull that off correctly.

Lots of variables though. Does your team have a great FT shooter that you can pretty much guarantee will go to the line and hit 2 and keep the lead at 3 if the other team makes their FTs?

The answer to your last question is heck yes. He's near automatic. Prettiest stroke I've ever seen in HS.

Agreed on all the rest. But I understand what you all are saying and that you are likely applying a college hoops lens to this situation. Need to remember this is VT high school basketball. Even if they got the ball to half court with 15 seconds to play, the right play was to foul and put them on the line. Assuming the refs got this one close to correct. They were beyond miserable for both teams.
 

CuseFaninVT

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Hindsight is 20/20
True. But I called it before. And as I said, we are talking Vermont HS basketball, not high level college.
 

Knicks411

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The time makes it tough though.

Just IMO...Ideally, you play tough defense long enough to prevent them from getting a clean look and then foul once the time gets under 7 seconds.

That requires a super aware team though, and a very strong defensive effort, and I’m not even sure a lot of D-1 teams could pull that off correctly.

Lots of variables though. Does your team have a great FT shooter that you can pretty much guarantee will go to the line and hit 2 and keep the lead at 3 if the other team makes their FTs?


Agree, ton of variables. Like, say the other team hasn't even hit 7 fouls yet, and they have one or two more to give to you before you shoot FT. Then I would say even more likely to foul, since t's going to take multiple fouls to put you on the line. Same token, if they have committed 6 or 7 fouls, and you are going to only be shooting 1-1 and you dont have a lights out FT shooter, maybe you're less likely to foul. Etc

In general, I am pro fouling. Though not with 17 seconds left.
 
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Brooky03

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True. But I called it before. And as I said, we are talking Vermont HS basketball, not high level college.

Even in HS I think 17 seconds is too much. Calling it beforehand doesn't really change the probability of it working. Both options might not have worked for all we know.

My assumption is that the odds aren't more in a leading team's favor to foul with that much time left vs. playing it out. I could of course be wrong.

Assuming you're fouling a guard who is decent, the most likely outcome is that he'll hit both FTs (a decent HS guard is probably a 70% FT shooter or better). Now you're inbounding the ball up 1 with 15-ish seconds left. If he misses the front end, you have a very good chance of winning, but you'd need to foul a bad FT shooter for this to be a reasonably likely result. If he makes 1 misses 1, you're up 2 with 15-ish seconds left.

I say, play good defense and don't let them shoot a 3. If they make a 2, you're inbounding up 1 with less time on the clock; maybe 10 or 12 seconds or less. If they hit a 3, you have a chance to hit a game winner. If they miss, you just won.
 
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CorduroyG

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under 10 seconds i foul, but not with 17 secs left. way too many things can happen in 17 seconds if you foul.
 

longtimefan

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We lost to Clemson at the Dome a few years ago when they hit a 3 to tie it and put it in OT. There was a ton of “Syracuse should’ve fouled” discussion.
Hop was coaching that game.

Still, it may have been players' failure to execute rather than coach's philosophy.
 
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Ghost

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Unless we have some phenomenal otherworldly free throw shooters I'm taking the clock down as much as possible. Probably under 5.
 

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