Va Tech and NCAAT Perspective

[PoppyHart]

Va Tech: 16-11 (64 NET)
SU: 16-11 (101 NET)

H2H: Split

With a win tonight against Miami, whom they are 2.5 point favorites against, Va. Tech would have wins against:

UVA (16)
Duke (29)
Miami (31)
Oklahoma State (42)
North Carolina (48)
Pitt (50)
Penn State (58)
Dayton (74)

Bad Losses:

Boston College (184 x 2)
GA Tech (208)

Va Tech is not currently in the NCAAT conversation.

 

[tbonezone]

we are currently 8th in a crappy conference. you think we're national contenders?

 

[Cusefan0307]

Not surprising. North Carolina, PSU, and Clemson aren't in either. Pitt is a projected 10 seed.

 

[Brooky03]

We have to win the ACCT. That’s been established for a few weeks now.

I don’t think we need to worry ourselves with NET or good wins or bad losses or any of that. We’re playing for a decent ACCT seed and hoping we get lucky when we’re there.

 

[orangecuse]

Not surprising. North Carolina, PSU, and Clemson aren't in either. Pitt is a projected 10 seed.

Yet just another testament on how historically WEAK the ACC is this year. When was the last time, if ever (especially at this late juncture in the season) that a team in/tied for 1st place in the league was such a projected low seed?

 

[rrlbees]

we are currently 8th in a crappy conference. you think we're national contenders?

He said that?

 

[longtimefan]

Va Tech: 16-11 (64 NET)
SU: 16-11 (101 NET)

H2H: Split

With a win tonight against Miami, whom they are 2.5 point favorites against, Va. Tech would have wins against:

UVA (16)
Duke (29)
Miami (31)
Oklahoma State (42)
North Carolina (48)
Pitt (50)
Penn State (58)
Dayton (74)

Bad Losses:

Boston College (184 x 2)
GA Tech (208)

Va Tech is not currently in the NCAAT conversation.

One thing it shows is what a huge home-court advantage VT has.

On the above list, UVa, Duke, Miami (?), UNC, and Pitt were all played in Cassell. Not sure about the other three.

And, there's the fact that the Hokies will be under .500 in a historically weak ACC.

 

[CardiacCuse]

Yet just another testament on how historically WEAK the ACC is this year. When was the last time, if ever (especially at this late juncture in the season) that a team in/tied for 1st place in the league was such a projected low seed?

yeah yeah yeah...and every season one of the other power conf craps the bed

big 10 was so good but didnt do anything recently cant remember year, i think last year ...meanwhile...weak ACC had 2 in FF...

i think the algorithm currently grossly overvalues non conf...bc those games are essentially meaningless come march...and yet they determine almost everything for perception of conferences

 

[blust2i3d4]

Yet just another testament on how historically WEAK the ACC is this year. When was the last time, if ever (especially at this late juncture in the season) that a team in/tied for 1st place in the league was such a projected low seed?

ACC was weaker last year. Yet everybody advanced on the first round (except VA Tech) and Duke, UNC went to final four. The Net ratings are a joke.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

We have to win the ACCT. That’s been established for a few weeks now.

I don’t think we need to worry ourselves with NET or good wins or bad losses or any of that. We’re playing for a decent ACCT seed and hoping we get lucky when we’re there.

 

[tbonezone]

We have to win the ACCT. That’s been established for a few weeks now.

I don’t think we need to worry ourselves with NET or good wins or bad losses or any of that. We’re playing for a decent ACCT seed and hoping we get lucky when we’re there.

U Kidding Me ? if we somehow win the ACCT this season will be gauged a tremendous success even if we bow out 1st round to Humpmutts St.

 

[Brooky03]

U Kidding Me ? if we somehow win the ACCT this season will be gauged a tremendous success even if we bow out 1st round to Humpmutts St.

I’m saying that’s been the only path to the NCAAT for a couple/few weeks. I’m not saying it’s likely.

 

[jncuse]

Va Tech: 16-11 (64 NET)
SU: 16-11 (101 NET)

H2H: Split

With a win tonight against Miami, whom they are 2.5 point favorites against, Va. Tech would have wins against:

UVA (16)
Duke (29)
Miami (31)
Oklahoma State (42)
North Carolina (48)
Pitt (50)
Penn State (58)
Dayton (74)

Bad Losses:

Boston College (184 x 2)
GA Tech (208)

Va Tech is not currently in the NCAAT conversation.

I think what is killing VaTech is those 3 bad losses. Say they only had 1 instead of 3, they would probably be near the bubble line.

That being said its still a better resume than Syracuse by a fair bit which I think was the point you were to make - we also have 2 bad losses, and nowhere near the same level of victories as Tech,

 

[jncuse]

We have to win the ACCT. That’s been established for a few weeks now.

I don’t think we need to worry ourselves with NET or good wins or bad losses or any of that. We’re playing for a decent ACCT seed and hoping we get lucky when we’re there.

If we beat Pitt and Clemson there is probably a path without having to outright win the ACC tourney. Maybe. But I'll only worry about thinking about it once we win those games. Heck, I may even do a bubble watch trying to estimate our current spot / range outside the line at that point

So in conclusion, I won't be thinking about Syracuse at large bids or the Syracuse Bubble Watch until 2024.

 

[jncuse]

Around Jan 15 or so, somebody here pointed out that the ACC had 8 teams in the tournament per somebody -- I checked the Matrix and it was 7 in for the ACC + one of first teams out.

I had predicted 5 at the beginning of conference season, with downside and upside of 4-6.

Eventually 2 things have happened, and the ACC has faded back to 5 in (with 2 first out) per the current matrix.

1) As expected, the average NET of ACC teams has continuously slowly leaked. It's simply because conferences that do better OOC pump each other more when they start playing each other. That hurts the ACC and other conferences get much more Q1 and Q2 win opportunities. Which is the biggest factor to help teams get in.

2) Boston College and FSU, with 7 and 6 wins, are screwing up some teams resumes because they are considered bad losses.

 

[JaySU22]

Around Jan 15 or so, somebody here pointed out that the ACC had 8 teams in the tournament per somebody -- I checked the Matrix and it was 7 in for the ACC + one of first teams out.

I had predicted 5 at the beginning of conference season, with downside and upside of 4-6.

Eventually 2 things have happened, and the ACC has faded back to 5 in (with 2 first out) per the current matrix.

1) As expected, the average NET of ACC teams has continuously slowly leaked. It's simply because conferences that do better OOC pump each other more when they start playing each other. That hurts the ACC and other conferences get much more Q1 and Q2 win opportunities. Which is the biggest factor to help teams get in.

2) Boston College and FSU, with 7 and 6 wins, are screwing up some teams resumes because they are considered bad losses.

Re #2 I think both were down players early, they’re both more respectable now

Re va tech they’re 0-5 without their star. They should be in the convo

 

[JustPherU]

If we beat Pitt and Clemson there is probably a path without having to outright win the ACC tourney. Maybe. But I'll only worry about thinking about it once we win those games. Heck, I may even do a bubble watch trying to estimate our current spot / range outside the line at that point

So in conclusion, I won't be thinking about Syracuse at large bids or the Syracuse Bubble Watch until 2024.

Not a chance!
I can’t believe anyone looking at our resume isn’t laughing at how far away we are from a bid.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Re #2 I think both were down players early, they’re both more respectable now

Re va tech they’re 0-5 without their star. They should be in the convo

I’m not sure we should be considering someone who averages 10 ppg a star, but that’s me.

 

[hoopsupstate]

I don’t care what VT’s NET is, they are 6-11 in the conference. That in itself totally disqualifies them from being anywhere near the bubble. The problem with the NET is it’s all based on the preseason. If your conference is full of teams with good NET scores, no matter what you do in conference your score is not going to drop much. With todays portal and if you have a young team, your chances of playing great in November is unlikely. The eye test and how you’re playing in February is important. UCONN is a perfect example. They are still living off their early success. They don’t look anything like the team they were in November. Their losses keep piling up and they hardly move in the national rankings.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think 3-1 and 3-1 gets us in. Try to come up with 68 teams in the field without us. We would be 22-13 and 12-8 in conference. If a MWC or A10 team gets in because of the NET, it would be a joke.

 

[tbonezone]

if you're gonna win the ACCT this is the year to do it. ACC is the weakest it's been in decades.

 

[jncuse]

Not a chance!
I can’t believe anyone looking at our resume isn’t laughing at how far away we are from a bid.

Good morning Karim Garcia.

The scenario that I presented implied that if we win our next 6 games in a row we are maybe on the line (an unlikely streak). You do realize that if you need to win 6 games in a row to get near the line, that actually means you are pretty far out right now, right?

 

[OrangeDW]

Good morning Karim Garcia. You just made the list.

The scenario that I presented implied that if we win our next 6 games in a row we are maybe on the line (an unlikely streak). You do realize that if you need to win 6 games in a row to get near the line, that actually means you are pretty far out right now, right?

This whole recurring convo is the sports version of this:

 

[MDCuse]

If we beat Pitt and Clemson there is probably a path without having to outright win the ACC tourney. Maybe. But I'll only worry about thinking about it once we win those games. Heck, I may even do a bubble watch trying to estimate our current spot / range outside the line at that point

So in conclusion, I won't be thinking about Syracuse at large bids or the Syracuse Bubble Watch until 2024.

Absolutely not

 

[JustPherU]

Good morning Karim Garcia.

The scenario that I presented implied that if we win our next 6 games in a row we are maybe on the line (an unlikely streak). You do realize that if you need to win 6 games in a row to get near the line, that actually means you are pretty far out right now, right?

Winning every game from here on out except ACC Championship will not do it.Only path is to win the ACC Tournament. Sad but true.