Vermont Game Preview (02/04/23, 1pm) | Syracusefan.com

Vermont Game Preview (02/04/23, 1pm)

Powellfan

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Well it's finally here. After what felt like an eternity, the offseason is over and we actually have an honest to goodness game to look forward to. Vermont is outside the top 20 but pose a stiff test to a reconfigured Orange team. I'll try and keep these game previews a little more brief than usual.

On offense the Catamounts lose a lot, including one of the best players in their history in Thomas McConvey who left for UVA in the offseason (74 points from the midfield). They also lose their fourth and fifth leading scorers in David McCormick and Liam Limoges. But they return their second and third leading scorers in David Closterman and Brock Haley, who combined for 101 points last year. That's nothing to sneeze at. UVM also returns four other players who scored in double digits last year. They will definitely have to adjust to losing McConvey which should take some getting used to. They run a motion based offense heavily influenced by a Canadian style so the potential for this team is there. But even the best schemes need players to draw slides and finish shots. Do they have somone to put pressue on a defense and get feet moving?

For SU, Will Mark is the presumed starter and it will be exciting to see him get his first start in the Dome. Lots of questions for the SU defense, but I'm assuming that Caccamo will draw Closterman. Curious to see how the SSDMs perform as they bring in two transfers and some freshmen. This unit should have more depth this year. Also wondering who will back up Olexo at LSM.

Defensively the Mounts have a beast of a player in Nick Alviti - he's one of the returning players who scored in double digits last year (eight goals, four assists). He's not just a threat in transition, he was also second on the team in groundballs with 88 and first in Caused Turnovers with 32. You have to think that SU will spend a lot of time avoiding the Junior from Connecticut. That said, the rest of the Vermont defense is no joke as Jackson Canfield, Will Jones combined for 40 caused turnovers as well. The new look SU offense has some good news as longtime goalie Ryan Cornell (55% save percentage, 8.91 GAA) is gone.

It looks like the attack for Syracuse is set with Spallina running with Simmons and Hiltz. Who starts at midfield? How often will players be rotated? Lots of returning players who, quite frankly didn't perform that well last year will be meshed together with transfers and freshmen. Who wins out?

The biggest advantage the Catamounts will have of course will be their FOGO, as Tommy Burke comes in with a 61.4% winning percentage from last year. Syracuse has many questions in this department (I'm not even sure who the presumed starter will be). Can SU mitigate the possession discrepancy with a better defense? Who will be on the face-off wings for the Orange? If they struggle do they stick with one guy or try and throw the kitchen sink at Burke?

Alright, can't wait till Saturday. I think this could be a close game if Syracuse struggles at the face-off. I think ultimately their depth wins out and they overwhelm Vermont, but should be a good game. Maybe something like 14-10? Go 'Cuse.
 
Well it's finally here. After what felt like an eternity, the offseason is over and we actually have an honest to goodness game to look forward to. Vermont is outside the top 20 but pose a stiff test to a reconfigured Orange team. I'll try and keep these game previews a little more brief than usual.

On offense the Catamounts lose a lot, including one of the best players in their history in Thomas McConvey who left for UVA in the offseason (74 points from the midfield). They also lose their fourth and fifth leading scorers in David McCormick and Liam Limoges. But they return their second and third leading scorers in David Closterman and Brock Haley, who combined for 101 points last year. That's nothing to sneeze at. UVM also returns four other players who scored in double digits last year. They will definitely have to adjust to losing McConvey which should take some getting used to. They run a motion based offense heavily influenced by a Canadian style so the potential for this team is there. But even the best schemes need players to draw slides and finish shots. Do they have somone to put pressue on a defense and get feet moving?

For SU, Will Mark is the presumed starter and it will be exciting to see him get his first start in the Dome. Lots of questions for the SU defense, but I'm assuming that Caccamo will draw Closterman. Curious to see how the SSDMs perform as they bring in two transfers and some freshmen. This unit should have more depth this year. Also wondering who will back up Olexo at LSM.

Defensively the Mounts have a beast of a player in Nick Alviti - he's one of the returning players who scored in double digits last year (eight goals, four assists). He's not just a threat in transition, he was also second on the team in groundballs with 88 and first in Caused Turnovers with 32. You have to think that SU will spend a lot of time avoiding the Junior from Connecticut. That said, the rest of the Vermont defense is no joke as Jackson Canfield, Will Jones combined for 40 caused turnovers as well. The new look SU offense has some good news as longtime goalie Ryan Cornell (55% save percentage, 8.91 GAA) is gone.

It looks like the attack for Syracuse is set with Spallina running with Simmons and Hiltz. Who starts at midfield? How often will players be rotated? Lots of returning players who, quite frankly didn't perform that well last year will be meshed together with transfers and freshmen. Who wins out?

The biggest advantage the Catamounts will have of course will be their FOGO, as Tommy Burke comes in with a 61.4% winning percentage from last year. Syracuse has many questions in this department (I'm not even sure who the presumed starter will be). Can SU mitigate the possession discrepancy with a better defense? Who will be on the face-off wings for the Orange? If they struggle do they stick with one guy or try and throw the kitchen sink at Burke?

Alright, can't wait till Saturday. I think this could be a close game if Syracuse struggles at the face-off. I think ultimately their depth wins out and they overwhelm Vermont, but should be a good game. Maybe something like 14-10? Go 'Cuse.
Closterman is a strong dude who likes to run through rather than around his defender. His red mullet last year made a perfect metaphor. He plays like his hair's on fire.
 
Burke is good but he's not dominant. That 61% was inflated from beating up on some really bad FOGOs in the America East. The Orange should be able to scrape together a 40% showing or so on Saturday. I don't think the faceoff dot will decide this one. Early season games like this are often about two things: Identity...which team knows who they are and is committed to a solid game plan and then Turnovers...which team has the stickwork and mental game dialed in at this early portion of the schedule. The Dome is worth at least a goal or two advantage there
 
Burke is good but he's not dominant. That 61% was inflated from beating up on some really bad FOGOs in the America East. The Orange should be able to scrape together a 40% showing or so on Saturday. I don't think the faceoff dot will decide this one. Early season games like this are often about two things: Identity...which team knows who they are and is committed to a solid game plan and then Turnovers...which team has the stickwork and mental game dialed in at this early portion of the schedule. The Dome is worth at least a goal or two advantage there

Agree on turnovers, it absolutely killed SU last year and cost them at least 2 or 3 wins. I hope the issue is cleared up or at least much improved starting Saturday. Penalties and sloppy play maybe an issue as well. SU has some young guys who are likely to see a lot of time especially on offense or at least players who haven't played a lot. May take them a game or two to get into the swing of D1, though fall ball and the scrimmage likely helped them get a taste. Vermont is breaking in a lot of new players as well so I suspect turnovers and inconsistent play will be an issue for them potentially.

I agree in theory with Burke but my concern is that if he gets on a roll he maybe difficult to slow down as SU doesn't have a veteran FOGO who can at least muck it up for a handful of draws. I think SU is clearly the more talented team but if Vermont is winning every draw I worry a bit about the D starting to breakdown. Most of the projected starting defense has prior experience so I could be off base but I think they at least need to be at the 40% mark you noted or things could get tricky.

Wing play will also likely be enormous. It's been an issue for a while now and was absolutely atrocious for a large portion of last year. I really hope we have some new faces there on Saturday.
 
Another guy to watch out for on UVM is sophmore Charlie Pope. Didn't blow up the stat sheet but the guy is a total tank. The smaller ssdms would most likely have trouble if that was ever the match up.

Closterman does not really scare me too much. Got absolutely nothing against Wycoff in 2021 and I trust Caccamo as a 1v1 defender.

Really the only thing that scares me is Petro. Definitely the issue that stands out the most when you look at the film (and of course the stats) from last year. We could have used some better talent at ssdm, but our main problem was not really guys getting beat 1v1 all the time, it was guys scoring far too easily after the defense had to make some kind of rotation. We had the WORST man down defense in the nation last year. UNC had the 4th worst, being successful on man down d 51.2% of the time. Ours? 42.6%. Almost 10% lower than the 4th worst. Total embarrassment. That can not fall entirely on personnel. That is a fundamental coaching issue that has to be fixed. Every DC in america did a better job than him there, including all the ones in their first year with a new program.

NCAA College Men's Lacrosse DI current team Stats | NCAA.com

A team like UVM could kill us if we are not disciplined in the penalty box, barring a complete 180 turnaround there from last year. The combo of encouraging aggressive play that leads to penalties while having atrocious man down play will lead to another below 500 season if Petro has no plans to adapt and adjust. We can handle a bad day at the x. We can not handle a bad day there combined with a D that just leaves guys wide open as hell.

I think at least on man down, losing Murphy Kennedy and Staats is addition by subtraction. A guy like Dwan could come in and be a big help for that unit, even if he is not ready to take on a quality dodging attack just yet in 6v6. Mark in goal will be a big boost. Returning guys have a year of getting used to Petros strategies. Scrimmage seemed like a positive this year and I am hoping that is a sign of some progress, but just looking at the numbers our D put up last year, I could not fault anyone for still having low expectations. Petro's seat should be hot. I don't care about how much of a connection he already has with the players or his recruiting prowess. If the D sucks even remotely as bad as it did last year he should be out of a job. Teams change DCs all the time.
 
If McCool doesn't play really can he redshirt and if so is there a cut off date or certain amount of games that they have to do it by? I mean would be a good move so only next yr he would burn eligibility with Mark here. Just let Thompson back him up this yr. Then he can take over when Mark graduates and have 3 seasons of eligibility to play. I don't know how the whole redshirt process works.
 
If McCool doesn't play really can he redshirt and if so is there a cut off date or certain amount of games that they have to do it by? I mean would be a good move so only next yr he would burn eligibility with Mark here. Just let Thompson back him up this yr. Then he can take over when Mark graduates and have 3 seasons of eligibility to play. I don't know how the whole redshirt process works.

He can simply not play all season. He doesn't have to declare anything.

If he does play, he can play up to 4 games in the 1st half of the season, but has to miss the rest of the season with a documented injury to apply for a redshirt.
 
If McCool doesn't play really can he redshirt and if so is there a cut off date or certain amount of games that they have to do it by? I mean would be a good move so only next yr he would burn eligibility with Mark here. Just let Thompson back him up this yr. Then he can take over when Mark graduates and have 3 seasons of eligibility to play. I don't know how the whole redshirt process works.

Yes he can red-shirt but won't be able to play at all this year which doesn't seem likely anyway.
 
Another guy to watch out for on UVM is sophmore Charlie Pope. Didn't blow up the stat sheet but the guy is a total tank. The smaller ssdms would most likely have trouble if that was ever the match up.

Closterman does not really scare me too much. Got absolutely nothing against Wycoff in 2021 and I trust Caccamo as a 1v1 defender.

Really the only thing that scares me is Petro. Definitely the issue that stands out the most when you look at the film (and of course the stats) from last year. We could have used some better talent at ssdm, but our main problem was not really guys getting beat 1v1 all the time, it was guys scoring far too easily after the defense had to make some kind of rotation. We had the WORST man down defense in the nation last year. UNC had the 4th worst, being successful on man down d 51.2% of the time. Ours? 42.6%. Almost 10% lower than the 4th worst. Total embarrassment. That can not fall entirely on personnel. That is a fundamental coaching issue that has to be fixed. Every DC in america did a better job than him there, including all the ones in their first year with a new program.

NCAA College Men's Lacrosse DI current team Stats | NCAA.com

A team like UVM could kill us if we are not disciplined in the penalty box, barring a complete 180 turnaround there from last year. The combo of encouraging aggressive play that leads to penalties while having atrocious man down play will lead to another below 500 season if Petro has no plans to adapt and adjust. We can handle a bad day at the x. We can not handle a bad day there combined with a D that just leaves guys wide open as hell.

I think at least on man down, losing Murphy Kennedy and Staats is addition by subtraction. A guy like Dwan could come in and be a big help for that unit, even if he is not ready to take on a quality dodging attack just yet in 6v6. Mark in goal will be a big boost. Returning guys have a year of getting used to Petros strategies. Scrimmage seemed like a positive this year and I am hoping that is a sign of some progress, but just looking at the numbers our D put up last year, I could not fault anyone for still having low expectations. Petro's seat should be hot. I don't care about how much of a connection he already has with the players or his recruiting prowess. If the D sucks even remotely as bad as it did last year he should be out of a job. Teams change DCs all the time.
Petro's defenses at Hopkins fit the same patterns as his work with SU for years. I think your analysis deserves respect. The hoopla over SU as it has in the past seems a few feet off the rails to me. I wouldn't underestimate Closterman, but you are right about Pope. He's a wrecking ball.
 
Yes he can red-shirt but won't be able to play at all this year which doesn't seem likely any
He can simply not play all season. He doesn't have to declare anything.

If he does play, he can play up to 4 games in the 1st half of the season, but has to miss the rest of the season with a documented injury to apply for a redshirt.
Good summary of the McCool situation. A lot will depend on how Mark plays, particularly against Maryland, UNC and Duke. If he struggles, Gait will want to give McCool a shot. I would expect Mark to perform against UVM, Albany and HC. Mark has demonstrated talent and athleticism but at a lower level against weaker teams/shooters and in LIU games largely under the radar from the media - it will really come down to how he handles the pressure of big games under the bright lights against the best of D1. If Mark had already proven himself in the ACC, then I'm sure the coaches would prefer to redshirt McCool.
 
I would think Will Mark is more prepared for Maryland and Duke coming from a mid major D 1 school playing teams like St Joes, Umass and Rutgers then a kid who's coming from playing HS competition. Mark has been impressive in practice against SU shooters. The kid is very talented and will be very good. Just go watch his Rutgers highlights from last yr. He had Bartola and Jacoby firing at him and the announcer would say wow great save by Will Mark. So facing guys like that he's definitely more prepared then a freshman facing HS kids. He will be very impressive this yr and has proven it against top ranked teams while behind a less talented defense at LIU.
 
I think McCool is gonna be a very good goalie but right now Will Mark has played a lot higher competition and has proven to be solid. I said this before Will Mark saved 55% but facing 40 shots on goal a game. If he faced the avg shots per game he would have saved around 58% or so. Ppl don't realize that the more shots on goal the lower ur percentage will get. If Mark played well against a very talented St Joes and a final 4 Rutgers team I think he will do a lot better agajnst ACC teams then what SU has last yr. I seen this kid play a lot just wait until u guys see him play. He's special just like one of his SU teammates said in that preview he makes saves that just blow u away.
 
I also forget about Bryant. Very talented shooters like Mark Orourke playing in the PLL sixes this month, Benny Albladion playing for Cornell as a transfer and Logan McGovern at North Carolina as a transfer. Will Mark will be facing better comp consistently now but he has faced talented shooters and done very well. I know u weren't saying he can't do it and I'm sure ur rooting for him but I'm just saying he has proven himself agajnst very good competition it's not like he was playing against Hobart every game. He's gonna be a huge upgrade from last yr and will be fine under the lights he loves it and wanted to come to SU to prove himself. I heard he did very well agajnst a talented Michigan offense last week too. I don't think Gait would wanna throw McCool right into the fire midseason to have to face the very tough final 5 road games. Ur asking a kid who played HS 8 months ago to face Duke, Princeton, Virginia exc... If he was going with McCool he would start the season with him. I bet he redshirts and Thompson backs up Will Mark who will be very solid all yr long. Oh and yes I'm very confident in my LIU guys because they are here for a reason and that reason is they belong. They will do very well this season trust me.
 

Wow these guys really think SU is gonna be bad again. The best is the last guy saying its pretty much the same team as last yr. I mean I guess he doesn't research before making his picks. Anish thinks the offense will struggle to score with the freshmen like their not the most talented freshmen in the country. Yeah Simmons, Spallina and Hiltz will struggle to score. Birtwhistle and Cole Kirst have issues scoring too. Hope SU dominates which I think they will.
 
I think McCool is gonna be a very good goalie but right now Will Mark has played a lot higher competition and has proven to be solid. I said this before Will Mark saved 55% but facing 40 shots on goal a game. If he faced the avg shots per game he would have saved around 58% or so. Ppl don't realize that the more shots on goal the lower ur percentage will get. If Mark played well against a very talented St Joes and a final 4 Rutgers team I think he will do a lot better agajnst ACC teams then what SU has last yr. I seen this kid play a lot just wait until u guys see him play. He's special just like one of his SU teammates said in that preview he makes saves that just blow u away.
are there any stats somewhere that suggest the more shots faced, the lower the percentage expected?
laxreference.com?
 
cuse all-in,
my thought also. was a little surprised that jeremy said it wasn't likely. maybe he knows or heard. mccool comes in as a top keeper. cuse is gonna want to win, and there was certainly a lot of goalie switching last year.

wasn't mark out of fall ball? or maybe that was just scrimmages.

virginia put out a month or so ago that their freshman keeper was either likely to or going to redshirt. then last week, he ended up in the cage for some of their scrimmage. so that plan changed. is it known that mccool didn't step in against michigan?
 
are there any stats somewhere that suggest the more shots faced, the lower the percentage expected?
laxreference.com?
Idk but u would think it's harder I mean u gotta make at least 20 saves to reach 50% if ur facing 40 shots on goal. If u face 24 shots on goal u only need 12 saves. Will Mark saved around 20 shots a game. He made 30 saves agajnst a talented Bryant team. That's a lot of saves. I would think the more shots the harder it is to keep ur save percentage up. I think it's more impressive saving 20 goals a game then only 10 or 12 saves on 24 shots right? He saved 55% so that's like making what 23 saves on 40 shots on goal? That's pretty good. Also if he saved say 50% against Rutgers last yr well he did that with a less talented LIU defense in front of him. With a more talented ACC defense in front u would think that 50% would be a little higher. Tougher to make a save with a guy wide open in front of the cage then if the guy is covered and has to make a more difficult shot. Especially when facing more talented players like Rutgers then facing Hobart. I'm curious if there is any stats on all of this. I'm just thinking in my mind it's gotta be tougher to keep ur percentage up if ur facing on avg a higher amount of shots right?
 
cuse all-in,
my thought also. was a little surprised that jeremy said it wasn't likely. maybe he knows or heard. mccool comes in as a top keeper. cuse is gonna want to win, and there was certainly a lot of goalie switching last year.

wasn't mark out of fall ball? or maybe that was just scrimmages.

virginia put out a month or so ago that their freshman keeper was either likely to or going to redshirt. then last week, he ended up in the cage for some of their scrimmage. so that plan changed. is it known that mccool didn't step in against michigan?
Mark could practice in the fall but was eligible to compete in any scrimmages.
 
are there any stats somewhere that suggest the more shots faced, the lower the percentage expected?
laxreference.com?
Ha ha. I cannot imagine there are such stats and would be worthless if there were. Stats are just stats unless you understand the context and specific game situations. Goalie stats are a function of goalie talent, strength of defense, shot quality, strength of opposition etc.
I think the only conclusive thing you can say is that Will Mark was consistent and had a good save percentage over several seasons which is good. I am very hopeful that he will be a strong goalie for Cuse. The fact that he occasionally played Rutgers or St Joes doesn't impress me that much. I want to see how he handles facing Brennan O'Neill, Pat Kavanaugh, Shellenberger etc. when the games are high pressure. The expectations for a Cuse goalie are very different than LIU.
 
cuse all-in,
my thought also. was a little surprised that jeremy said it wasn't likely. maybe he knows or heard. mccool comes in as a top keeper. cuse is gonna want to win, and there was certainly a lot of goalie switching last year.

wasn't mark out of fall ball? or maybe that was just scrimmages.

virginia put out a month or so ago that their freshman keeper was either likely to or going to redshirt. then last week, he ended up in the cage for some of their scrimmage. so that plan changed. is it known that mccool didn't step in against michigan?

Sorry if my statement was confusing, I have heard SU is definitely all in on Mark and I was noting that it wasn't likely McCool was going to play. SU does have a bad habit of blowing redshirts so if McCool does win the backup job he may see time which I think would be a mistake.
 
Ha ha. I cannot imagine there are such stats and would be worthless if there were. Stats are just stats unless you understand the context and specific game situations. Goalie stats are a function of goalie talent, strength of defense, shot quality, strength of opposition etc.
I think the only conclusive thing you can say is that Will Mark was consistent and had a good save percentage over several seasons which is good. I am very hopeful that he will be a strong goalie for Cuse. The fact that he occasionally played Rutgers or St Joes doesn't impress me that much. I want to see how he handles facing Brennan O'Neill, Pat Kavanaugh, Shellenberger etc. when the games are high pressure. The expectations for a Cuse goalie are very different than LIU.

I couldn't respond to your post from late last night for some reason but I know that the SU staff is very high on Mark and he will have a very long leash. He put up very good numbers despite a less then stellar defense in front of him and has the ability to save next level shots that SU hasn't seen since Drake Porters Jr year.
 

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