How about a little discussion of what we'd like to see from the new guys and returnees on the roster this year. Obviously this would fall into the category of mostly meaning speculation, but might be a good topic. I'll follow up with forwards/bigs at some point as well. But I'll make the attempt here to discuss who we've got and what I'd like to see in a rational way (i.e. JJ isn't likely to pull a senior year Kemba, etc.).
JJ Starling
What I'd like to see: JJ to become a more instinctive player -- a player effectively leverages his athleticism.
JJ's numbers were fine last year -- there's a lot of good players who won't average 13 ppg at a high-major level in their careers. He also did that after coming off a significant injury. But JJ's numbers were a bit hollow. As much as people hated Judah's foul-bating, JJ was the exact opposite. He got to the line just 1.6 times/game in conference play. That's an amazingly low number for a guy who played 34 mpg as a guard. He also dished out just 1.2 assists/game (ACC only) ... yes, yes, I know, that was all Judah's fault, but consider that's half of what Brown dished out. He limited turnovers, which is great, but I feel like part of that was a lack of aggressiveness offensively. Defensively he was nothing short of dreadful. Again, weird considering he's a kid who plays hard and has good size and athleticism. He had about as many steals in ACC play as Taylor, who played 15 mpg less. His ball-handling was OK, but not inspiring.
Add that all up and I'm less concerned this season about JJ taking a jump from 13 ppg to something like 17 or 18 and more concerned with his becoming a player who helps us in all facets of the game. He's almost certainly going to have the ball in his hands more -- so his ball-handling and creation are going to be tested. He's going to play a bunch and we have to be better defensively -- JJ will need to leverage that athleticism and be a factor on this side of the ball. He has to take more chances. Love to see him be more aggressive getting to his midrange. Just think he's got to be a more well-rounded player as he's likely to lead the team in minutes played.
Jaquan Carlos
What I'd like to see: An ability to finish in some crafty ways in traffic
I don't feel like there's a whole lot of question that Carlos can play at this level in some form or fashion. The question seems to be more about whether he'll start and play significant minutes (25-30) or be a rotation guy off the bench. The answer lies in his ability to compensate for his lack of size at this level -- can his quickness give him a chance to hang defensively? Offensively, we know he's a decent, not great shooter. Good ball-handler, experienced at running an offense, and a good passer -- averaged more than 6 assists a game.
But will he be really limited at a scorer at this level? He shot 41% from the floor last year and attempted just 283 FGs overall. Decent number, but not a ton. About 1-1.5 more FG attempts than Q in like 12-13 minutes more per game. His 74 FTs attempted (89%) are a decent number, but not a big number by any means.
So this is a kid who's gotten better every year in college, has a ton of experience, and can obviously play a little bit, but my guess is he'll have a much bigger role if he proves that he's a capable finisher on whatever opportunities he has in transition or in the paint. Might take a bit of time, not unlike John Gillon.
Lucas Taylor
What I'd like to see: A guy who makes an impact with his athleticism on both ends
Taylor is another interesting piece. Hard to know how real the numbers are -- did nothing at Wake for 2 years, transfers down a level and is really productive with a few odd numbers. Usage rate was 25.2%, a pretty high number, and he committed almost 4 fouls/game -- Maliq Brown was at 3.0/game and was far and away the player who committed the most fouls for us last season. So that's a big number for Taylor.
I just thought watching his film that you saw a guy who likes to attack the rim, can get to his pull-up game and can even hound people a bit on the defensive end. Just hard to tell if that will finally translate for him at this level. To me Taylor is a bit of an all or nothing guy -- either the athleticism is real, he's gained confidence and learned how to get himself on the floor and make an impact ... or those numbers and production are a function of the competition level and he could get squeezed out by Cuffe and/or Moore. Tough to tell.
Kyle Cuffe Jr.
What I'd like to see: An in-shape Cuffe after a healthy off-season
Cuffe feels like a guy who has been written off to a large extent and I'm not sure I agree with it. He could well be on the fringes this season if Carlos and Taylor prove key additions and/or Westry/Moore exceed expectations (we'll get to Westry both). But Cuffe, to me, is an interesting one because he clearly has athleticism and swag. The latter quality seems superfluous at times and can even be frustrating, but watching JJ shooting early last season or Justin Taylor on offense all year, you realize it's important for guys to believe they belong and to believe they can make plays. Cuffe has that.
I also saw flashes of a guy who could be a tough defender. Anticipates changes of direction really well, moves his feet, quick hands, and a powerful frame despite on the smaller side. He's always going to be a bit of a tweener and the odds may be against him a bit on this particular roster, but if he is really tough on defense and he can build off of his first healthy season in two years last season, I think there's a chance for him to remain a key piece of our game rotation. I'd be a bit surprised but not shocked if he's able to eat into minutes many of us think are going to the other guards not named JJ Starling.
Chance Westry
What I'd like to see: Good health
Honestly, if Westry is able to practice and get on the floor for a few minutes, that's awesome. Not putting any other expectations on him. I just don't see how we could or how that would be fair. If someone else knows more about the situation and thinks Westry is poised to make a run at an all-acc selection, I'd be thrilled to be wrong, but just tough to make any sort of prediction based on what little we know publicly about what's gone on the past couple years.
Elijah Moore
What I'd like to see: Shooting translating from high school
It's not a given that a great high school shooter is going to just hit the ground running at the next level. I also saw a stat at one point near the end of Moore's senior season that he was shooting like 35-36% from three for the year. So, while I'm not concerned about his potential to be a good player here, I just am not sure it will happen in Year 1 with a lot of names fighting for time at guard.
But, Red said Moore has been playing well and again, a kid with swag who believes he can contribute, can sometimes emerge very quickly. There are other questions that could emerge here -- not sure how well he handles the ball, may need to add some muscle, not sure what his defense looks like -- but I would imagine if Moore is a dynamic offensive presence, he could factor in.
JJ Starling
What I'd like to see: JJ to become a more instinctive player -- a player effectively leverages his athleticism.
JJ's numbers were fine last year -- there's a lot of good players who won't average 13 ppg at a high-major level in their careers. He also did that after coming off a significant injury. But JJ's numbers were a bit hollow. As much as people hated Judah's foul-bating, JJ was the exact opposite. He got to the line just 1.6 times/game in conference play. That's an amazingly low number for a guy who played 34 mpg as a guard. He also dished out just 1.2 assists/game (ACC only) ... yes, yes, I know, that was all Judah's fault, but consider that's half of what Brown dished out. He limited turnovers, which is great, but I feel like part of that was a lack of aggressiveness offensively. Defensively he was nothing short of dreadful. Again, weird considering he's a kid who plays hard and has good size and athleticism. He had about as many steals in ACC play as Taylor, who played 15 mpg less. His ball-handling was OK, but not inspiring.
Add that all up and I'm less concerned this season about JJ taking a jump from 13 ppg to something like 17 or 18 and more concerned with his becoming a player who helps us in all facets of the game. He's almost certainly going to have the ball in his hands more -- so his ball-handling and creation are going to be tested. He's going to play a bunch and we have to be better defensively -- JJ will need to leverage that athleticism and be a factor on this side of the ball. He has to take more chances. Love to see him be more aggressive getting to his midrange. Just think he's got to be a more well-rounded player as he's likely to lead the team in minutes played.
Jaquan Carlos
What I'd like to see: An ability to finish in some crafty ways in traffic
I don't feel like there's a whole lot of question that Carlos can play at this level in some form or fashion. The question seems to be more about whether he'll start and play significant minutes (25-30) or be a rotation guy off the bench. The answer lies in his ability to compensate for his lack of size at this level -- can his quickness give him a chance to hang defensively? Offensively, we know he's a decent, not great shooter. Good ball-handler, experienced at running an offense, and a good passer -- averaged more than 6 assists a game.
But will he be really limited at a scorer at this level? He shot 41% from the floor last year and attempted just 283 FGs overall. Decent number, but not a ton. About 1-1.5 more FG attempts than Q in like 12-13 minutes more per game. His 74 FTs attempted (89%) are a decent number, but not a big number by any means.
So this is a kid who's gotten better every year in college, has a ton of experience, and can obviously play a little bit, but my guess is he'll have a much bigger role if he proves that he's a capable finisher on whatever opportunities he has in transition or in the paint. Might take a bit of time, not unlike John Gillon.
Lucas Taylor
What I'd like to see: A guy who makes an impact with his athleticism on both ends
Taylor is another interesting piece. Hard to know how real the numbers are -- did nothing at Wake for 2 years, transfers down a level and is really productive with a few odd numbers. Usage rate was 25.2%, a pretty high number, and he committed almost 4 fouls/game -- Maliq Brown was at 3.0/game and was far and away the player who committed the most fouls for us last season. So that's a big number for Taylor.
I just thought watching his film that you saw a guy who likes to attack the rim, can get to his pull-up game and can even hound people a bit on the defensive end. Just hard to tell if that will finally translate for him at this level. To me Taylor is a bit of an all or nothing guy -- either the athleticism is real, he's gained confidence and learned how to get himself on the floor and make an impact ... or those numbers and production are a function of the competition level and he could get squeezed out by Cuffe and/or Moore. Tough to tell.
Kyle Cuffe Jr.
What I'd like to see: An in-shape Cuffe after a healthy off-season
Cuffe feels like a guy who has been written off to a large extent and I'm not sure I agree with it. He could well be on the fringes this season if Carlos and Taylor prove key additions and/or Westry/Moore exceed expectations (we'll get to Westry both). But Cuffe, to me, is an interesting one because he clearly has athleticism and swag. The latter quality seems superfluous at times and can even be frustrating, but watching JJ shooting early last season or Justin Taylor on offense all year, you realize it's important for guys to believe they belong and to believe they can make plays. Cuffe has that.
I also saw flashes of a guy who could be a tough defender. Anticipates changes of direction really well, moves his feet, quick hands, and a powerful frame despite on the smaller side. He's always going to be a bit of a tweener and the odds may be against him a bit on this particular roster, but if he is really tough on defense and he can build off of his first healthy season in two years last season, I think there's a chance for him to remain a key piece of our game rotation. I'd be a bit surprised but not shocked if he's able to eat into minutes many of us think are going to the other guards not named JJ Starling.
Chance Westry
What I'd like to see: Good health
Honestly, if Westry is able to practice and get on the floor for a few minutes, that's awesome. Not putting any other expectations on him. I just don't see how we could or how that would be fair. If someone else knows more about the situation and thinks Westry is poised to make a run at an all-acc selection, I'd be thrilled to be wrong, but just tough to make any sort of prediction based on what little we know publicly about what's gone on the past couple years.
Elijah Moore
What I'd like to see: Shooting translating from high school
It's not a given that a great high school shooter is going to just hit the ground running at the next level. I also saw a stat at one point near the end of Moore's senior season that he was shooting like 35-36% from three for the year. So, while I'm not concerned about his potential to be a good player here, I just am not sure it will happen in Year 1 with a lot of names fighting for time at guard.
But, Red said Moore has been playing well and again, a kid with swag who believes he can contribute, can sometimes emerge very quickly. There are other questions that could emerge here -- not sure how well he handles the ball, may need to add some muscle, not sure what his defense looks like -- but I would imagine if Moore is a dynamic offensive presence, he could factor in.
