What is the real difference between Louisville and Syracuse?

[DangerZone]

What is the real difference between the now 2-13 Cardinals and the 10-5 Orange?

The answer isn't the 1 point difference in tonight's final score. It's 218.

That's the difference in Strength of Schedule. If you beat a 2-12 team by one point, it begs the question as to why the team records aren't similar. And the reason: an SOS of 279 (on KenPom) vs 61 for Louisville. Thank your lucky stars that the ACC is full of hot garbage again this year.

 

[Cuse181]

What is the real difference between the now 2-13 Cardinals and the 10-5 Orange?

The answer isn't the 1 point difference in tonight's final score. It's 218.

That's the difference in Strength of Schedule. If you beat a 2-12 team by one point, it begs the question as to why the team records aren't similar. And the reason: an SOS of 279 (on KenPom) vs 61 for Louisville. Thank your lucky stars that the ACC is full of hot garbage again this year.

That’s a remarkably simplistic argument and completely ignores the fact that the quality of a team isn’t determined by one game of head to head basketball. Would you argue that BC is better than VT because they beat them to head to head? Does that then mean Syracuse is better than VT? 9/10 times Vt and BC play, VT wins.

Teams can play good and bad single games, but that’s why the season is 31 games.

 

[DangerZone]

The point of the post was not at all about this rather poorly played game by two deeply flawed programs. The point of the post is about how vastly different their records are. As yourself what Syracuse's record might be if they played a competitive schedule befitting of a serous basketball program.

 

[Brooky03]

Conservatively, Syracuse would have 6 wins against Louisville’s schedule. Optimistically, 8. That would be including a couple really bad losses, like we have now. So that 150+ difference in SOS ranking equates to about a 2-4 game difference in the W-L record at this point in the season.

So two things can be and are true: 1) Syracuse is likely significantly better than Louisville. 2) Syracuse’s record is a little inflated by a weak schedule.

 

[djorange1989]

We stink less than them. That’s pretty much it

 

[NineOneSeven]

Louisville is in Kentucky and Syracuse is in New York. That's 1.

 

[Orangezoo]

Ville has an interesting talent profile for a 2-13 team.

Ellis- #1 ranked JUCO player nationally 2021 averaged 8.7 ppg off bench last year.
James- 2021 4 star redshirt frosh- #81 overall as a frosh
BHH- 5 star transfer from Tenn ( we know well from recruiting him)
S. Curry - 3 star, #7 ranked JUCO nationally averaged 7 ppg last year.
Lands- #62 ranked 4 star
Withers- only a 3 star but third year player who averaged 10 pts/game as a frosh then 5 last year.
Traynor - 3rd year role player (4 star recruit #132 overall)
R. Wheeler - 2021 #82 overall- rarely plays.
D. Ree -2022 #84 overall - rarely plays.


Arguably on paper right there with us talent wise.

 

[jncuse]

The point of the post was not at all about this rather poorly played game by two deeply flawed programs. The point of the post is about how vastly different their records are. As yourself what Syracuse's record might be if they played a competitive schedule befitting of a serous basketball program.

Seems like you are suggesting the only real difference between the two (based on one close game) is the schedule which is very incorrect.

Our record would be nowhere near 2-12 with the Louisville schedule. There is a reason we are #91 in KP (a metric adjusted for schedule strength) and Louisville is #271.

It wouldn't be 10-5, but perhaps a few games worse.

For example, the following teams have schedule strengths with adj EM's close to Louisville, and with KP ratings close to Syracuse and their records are as follows:
Wake Forest 10-4
St Louis 9-5
Nevada 12-3
UC Irvine 8-5

 

[JaySU22]

Seems like you are suggesting the only real difference between the two (based on one close game) is the schedule which is very incorrect.

Our record would be nowhere near 2-12 with the Louisville schedule. There is a reason we are #91 in KP (a metric adjusted for schedule strength) and Louisville is #271.

It wouldn't be 10-5, but perhaps a few games worse.

For example, the following teams have schedule strengths with adj EM's close to Louisville, and with KP ratings close to Syracuse and their records are as follows:
Wake Forest 10-4
St Louis 9-5
Nevada 12-3
UC Irvine 8-5

Have we ever been lower then 91 in the kp era? That’s brutal.

 

[orangenauburn]

We recruit the same talent as them - maybe our evaluations are flawed?

We went after BHH, twice, and had Lands commitment briefly.

 

[DangerZone]

Seems like you are suggesting the only real difference between the two (based on one close game) is the schedule which is very incorrect.

Our record would be nowhere near 2-12 with the Louisville schedule. There is a reason we are #91 in KP (a metric adjusted for schedule strength) and Louisville is #271.

It wouldn't be 10-5, but perhaps a few games worse.

For example, the following teams have schedule strengths with adj EM's close to Louisville, and with KP ratings close to Syracuse and their records are as follows:
Wake Forest 10-4
St Louis 9-5
Nevada 12-3
UC Irvine 8-5

It was just an observation, really. The SOS is alarmingly weak - partly because of the sheer percentage of home games, partly the opponents. Certainly, there are other metrics that come into play. KenPom gets increasingly unreliable when you get beyond the first 50 teams or so. But it was not the case that Louisville was over their heads last night. They were atrocious on the line, didn't shoot particularly well from the floor, had at least a dozen unforced turnovers and managed to put a very defendable Girard on the line for 11 attempts.

JB has been correct about Colgate. He's made the comments two years in a row. I thought at first it was him just exaggerating the ability of Colgate at the moment to squash the embarrassment of having loss by a rather large margin the last two games. He said that Colgate is probably the best of all their opponents when it comes to attacking the zone. And by God he's right. I think it is entirely possible that one could build an even weaker SOS for Syracuse that would produce the kind of record Louisville has right now. Colgate is likely not the only team. There are probably several teams north of 150 that know exactly how to move the ball against the zone and would do so in a variety of ways, thwarting each of the rather subtle adjustments that JB makes within the zone. They'd be garbage on paper, but they can hit a knuckleball.

It never ceases to amaze me just how little preparation is made to face the zone. Teams would be better served studying the Colgate footage as opposed to the normal approach of game film review.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Sometimes people try too hard to make a point and this is that instance. We are not great by any means, but we are not as bad as Louisville.

 

[MikeSU02]

We aren't as much of a mess as Ville in the current snapshot. But Ville may be able to bounce back more quickly than we can.

But for right now, we're better, but that's not saying a lot.

We should beat terrible teams. Ville can't say the same. Neither of us are winning much of anything.

 

[DCUNITED13]

Rick Pitino was Head Coach at Louisville while only being an assistant at Syracuse.

 

[jncuse]

It was just an observation, really. The SOS is alarmingly weak - partly because of the sheer percentage of home games, partly the opponents. Certainly, there are other metrics that come into play. KenPom gets increasingly unreliable when you get beyond the first 50 teams or so. But it was not the case that Louisville was over their heads last night. They were atrocious on the line, didn't shoot particularly well from the floor, had at least a dozen unforced turnovers and managed to put a very defendable Girard on the line for 11 attempts.

JB has been correct about Colgate. He's made the comments two years in a row. I thought at first it was him just exaggerating the ability of Colgate at the moment to squash the embarrassment of having loss by a rather large margin the last two games. He said that Colgate is probably the best of all their opponents when it comes to attacking the zone. And by God he's right. I think it is entirely possible that one could build an even weaker SOS for Syracuse that would produce the kind of record Louisville has right now. Colgate is likely not the only team. There are probably several teams north of 150 that know exactly how to move the ball against the zone and would do so in a variety of ways, thwarting each of the rather subtle adjustments that JB makes within the zone. They'd be garbage on paper, but they can hit a knuckleball.

It never ceases to amaze me just how little preparation is made to face the zone. Teams would be better served studying the Colgate footage as opposed to the normal approach of game film review.

Louisville is 2-5 in Q4 games.
Syracuse is 7-0 in Q4 games.

But sure, we would have the nearly the same record if we had their schedule. Those 7 Q4 teams that Louisville played would be able to figure out our zone, even though the 7 we have played apparently have not.

 

[two3zone]

Rick Pitino was Head Coach at Louisville while only being an assistant at Syracuse.

For now.