All of the above could have resulted in championships, plus a thousand other things.
Oklahoma State played Memphis twice this year (just ten days apart), the first time Smart scored thirty-nine points and Oklahoma State wins by twenty, the second time Smart scores twelve and Memphis wins by five. Fans like to pretend that the winning team always plays superior basketball, but most of the time a very fine line separates winning and losing - even when the margin of victory is large.
Any of the things you mentioned could have changed the outcome of any of the tournaments. So could any number of other factors.
People look back on the 10-11 team with a little bit of disappointment, but if the officials had not called an incorrect over and back penalty against Syracuse late, they do not lose to Marquette, and there is a legit chance that team wins it all. That was one of the worst years in college basketball history and Syracuse had somewhere around a 50% chance or better in every game they would have played. How differently people think and talk about that team in that scenario.
Here are a few more interesting what-if scenarios.
What if Billy Owens returned for his senior year? You never hear anybody mention this possibility but the year after Owens left, Moten arrived, and immediately emerged as a star, averaging 18 ppg as a freshman. If Owens had stayed you are looking at a team of Ellis, Owens, Johnson, Moten, Autrey. That's a championship team if I have ever seen it. If my memory is correct, only seven players have averaged 20ppg under Boeheim, and that team would have had three of them playing at the same time (Moten, Ownes, Johnson) plus a star point guard (smart enough to become a coach) to get them the ball in the right spots, and a center drafted to the NBA. I would have loved to see that team play.
What if Dante Greene returned for his sophomore year? Syracuse was somewhere around the 10th best team in the country the year after Greene left. Pretty good. But their best and most played line up was Flynn, Devendorf, Rautins, Harris, Onuaku, pretty much four guards and a center. That team had no height and real trouble defending because of it. Greene would have been one of the better players in the country that year (not many 6'10 shooters around with his athletic abilities). He would have made a team that was already very good offensively maybe the best offensive team Syracuse has ever had, and his length and athleticism would have masked a lot of defensive holes. I always guessed Boeheim planned on Greene being a two year guy. The only problem with this what-if scenario, is the fact that North Carolina had an absolute juggernaut that year, and as good as Syracuse would have been, they still might have finished second to UNC. Would have loved to see that match up though.
What if Lazarus Sims had not gotten hurt against Kentucky? Syracuse lost the '96 national championship to a Kentucky team that had a crazy amount of guys drafted to the NBA (I want to say 9). They were clearly the better team, but in a one game scenario anything can happen. What did happen was Syracuse was down by a couple points in the second half but making a huge charge. They had all the momentum on their side when Sims (the team's only point guard) got hurt. That Kentucky team (coached by Piteno) used their waves and waves of NBA talent to press the whole game. Imagine playing Louisvilled this year and having Ennis get hurt . . . it would be kind of like that, but worse. Sims did come back after a few minutes on the bench, but by the time he did Kentucky had given themselves a comfortable lead. Had Sims not gotten hurt Syracuse might very well have won that game. I also wonder what would have happened if Rock Lloyd were still on that team and could have played point when Sims went down.
What if the NBA did not have a work stoppage in '11 and Fab did not get suspended in '12. Syracuse went something like 28-1 with Fab Melo in their line up. Imagine that team in a tournament where Kentucky did not have Jones and Lamb, Ohio St. did not have Sullinger, and UNC did not have Henson and Barnes because they all went pro the year before!
What if Smart missed that shot? Okay I know this is a stupid one, but honestly, how many times do you see a guy hit a jump shot while falling out of bounds towards the baseline? Especially a guy who isn't even a good shooter.
Of course this works the other way too . . . what if Winfred Walton was not an academic bust and played like the McDonal'd All American he was? Would Carmelo Anthony still have come here? My guess is no.
