whole bunch of numbers about 3p% against our zone

[Millhouse]

we can all see the average three point % against is fine this year but people seem to think that the zone might work a lot of the time but get torched from time to time more than man.

we gave up 46% shooting 6 times this year. 150 other teams gave up 46% that much or more
47% happened 5 times - 117 teams were that bad
50% 4 times. 109 teams were that bad or worse (a lot more teams were better of course)
57% happened twice. Only 49 teams were that bad.

i only looked at this year but i think it's fair to say the zone works overall but when it goes bad it goes real bad. we're tied for 43rd in most games holding teams to 32% or less

the thing about the zone that's interesting is there are a lot of games where teams keep chucking up lots of 3s with a bad percentage

we lead the country in games since 2011 where a team shoots 33% or worse on 33 or more shots

Team Game Finder | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com


i would've never guessed this next stat. (EDIT the reason I never would've guessed it is because everything that follows is totally wrong - i'm sorry) what is our record when we give up 40% from three in the tournament since 2011?

8 wins 1 loss. The one loss is to Baylor.

when the other team shoots 33% or worse our record is 6-5.

 

[djcon57]

we can all see the average three point % against is fine this year but people seem to think that the zone might work a lot of the time but get torched from time to time more than man.

we gave up 46% shooting 6 times this year. 150 other teams gave up 46% that much or more
47% happened 5 times - 117 teams were that bad
50% 4 times. 109 teams were that bad or worse (a lot more teams were better of course)
57% happened twice. Only 49 teams were that bad.

i only looked at this year but i think it's fair to say the zone works overall but when it goes bad it goes real bad. we're tied for 43rd in most games holding teams to 32% or less

the thing about the zone that's interesting is there are a lot of games where teams keep chucking up lots of 3s with a bad percentage

we lead the country in games since 2011 where a team shoots 33% or worse on 33 or more shots

Team Game Finder | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com


i would've never guessed this next stat. what is our record when we give up 40% from three in the tournament since 2011?

8 wins 1 loss. The one loss is to Baylor.

when the other team shoots 33% or worse our record is 6-5.

These are all interesting stats but we are including early season scrub games, bad conf opponents, and crummy non P5 teams amongst the numbers. I’d be much more interested in seeing how the zone worked against ranked teams or teams that made the tourney.

The tourney stat is interesting though.

 

[MikeSU02]

we can all see the average three point % against is fine this year but people seem to think that the zone might work a lot of the time but get torched from time to time more than man.

we gave up 46% shooting 6 times this year. 150 other teams gave up 46% that much or more
47% happened 5 times - 117 teams were that bad
50% 4 times. 109 teams were that bad or worse (a lot more teams were better of course)
57% happened twice. Only 49 teams were that bad.

i only looked at this year but i think it's fair to say the zone works overall but when it goes bad it goes real bad. we're tied for 43rd in most games holding teams to 32% or less

the thing about the zone that's interesting is there are a lot of games where teams keep chucking up lots of 3s with a bad percentage

we lead the country in games since 2011 where a team shoots 33% or worse on 33 or more shots

Team Game Finder | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com


i would've never guessed this next stat. what is our record when we give up 40% from three in the tournament since 2011?

8 wins 1 loss. The one loss is to Baylor.

when the other team shoots 33% or worse our record is 6-5.

Can you tie in # of possessions somehow? Meaning, do we give up an inordinate amount of offensive rebounds so teams that have a low shooting percentage are still getting way more shots up than we are.

 

[Millhouse]

These are all interesting stats but we are including early season scrub games, bad conf opponents, and crummy non P5 teams amongst the numbers. I’d be much more interested in seeing how the zone worked against ranked teams or teams that made the tourney.

The tourney stat is interesting though.

there are some good schools on the list of individual games

Team Game Finder | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

i didn't link this before so I didn't expect to see duke three times. mich st is on there too, pitt twice. some scrubs of course but everyone plays scrubs

 

[Millhouse]

Can you tie in # of possessions somehow? Meaning, do we give up an inordinate amount of offensive rebounds so teams that have a low shooting percentage are still getting way more shots up than we are.

sure but that'll cost you

(seriously though, i don't have an easy way to do that)

 

[OrangeFoo]

i only looked at this year but i think it's fair to say the zone works overall but when it goes bad it goes real bad. we're tied for 43rd in most games holding teams to 32% or less

This the main point I’ve been trying to make... the zone has been perfectly fine as a base D but we seen to no longer be able to adjust to teams with 3 or 4 three point shooters. Back in the day having more than 2 quality three point shooters was very rare and in fact most teams had just one. My prediction is more and more teams will be able to run out 3 or 4 dudes who can nail wide open 3s and we are going to have more nights like the Baylor debacle.

Honestly, although I’ve been making a lot of threads about the zone... I agree that the offense is the bigger problem. Ours is a joke for a program of our caliber. I know we always say next year, but this incoming class seems to be a year where we have recruited skill players on offense who without regard to how well they play D. Also this season is the first season I can remember JB pulling kids for offensive mistakes and JB let Buddy play 40 because of his offense even though he was getting killed on D because he was willing to get into a shoot out.

I truly think we are going back to an offensive mindset and next year we will see a good offense with an more inefficient D than usual. I don’t think JB has forgotten those offensive sets played by the GMAC and Melo team or the Wes team he just hasn’t had the horses. I think next year we go back to that.

 

[CuseCPT]

we can all see the average three point % against is fine this year but people seem to think that the zone might work a lot of the time but get torched from time to time more than man.

we gave up 46% shooting 6 times this year. 150 other teams gave up 46% that much or more
47% happened 5 times - 117 teams were that bad
50% 4 times. 109 teams were that bad or worse (a lot more teams were better of course)
57% happened twice. Only 49 teams were that bad.

i only looked at this year but i think it's fair to say the zone works overall but when it goes bad it goes real bad. we're tied for 43rd in most games holding teams to 32% or less

the thing about the zone that's interesting is there are a lot of games where teams keep chucking up lots of 3s with a bad percentage

we lead the country in games since 2011 where a team shoots 33% or worse on 33 or more shots

Team Game Finder | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com


i would've never guessed this next stat. what is our record when we give up 40% from three in the tournament since 2011?

8 wins 1 loss. The one loss is to Baylor.

when the other team shoots 33% or worse our record is 6-5.

This is a great post and huge step in the right direction from quoting season stats. It still doesn't tell the whole story though. The bolded part, in my opinion, isn't quite the argument the most of us malcontents want to make. I don't claim that man-to-man teams get torched less or more than zone teams over the course of a season. What frustrates me is when the zone, with in-game adjustments, is just not working in a particular game, and we stay in it. I'd hazard to guess that other than a few outliers, most people on this board don't want us to completely abandon the zone, or even play man-to-man a set % of the time. I just want to see it for a few series when a team is going on a run and you can just see the game slipping away. To make matters worse, our offense makes an 8 point deficit seem insurmountable the past few seasons.

I do appreciate these posts, though, the data is interesting.

 

[HakAttack]

we can all see the average three point % against is fine this year but people seem to think that the zone might work a lot of the time but get torched from time to time more than man.

we gave up 46% shooting 6 times this year. 150 other teams gave up 46% that much or more
47% happened 5 times - 117 teams were that bad
50% 4 times. 109 teams were that bad or worse (a lot more teams were better of course)
57% happened twice. Only 49 teams were that bad.

i only looked at this year but i think it's fair to say the zone works overall but when it goes bad it goes real bad. we're tied for 43rd in most games holding teams to 32% or less

the thing about the zone that's interesting is there are a lot of games where teams keep chucking up lots of 3s with a bad percentage

we lead the country in games since 2011 where a team shoots 33% or worse on 33 or more shots

Team Game Finder | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com


i would've never guessed this next stat. what is our record when we give up 40% from three in the tournament since 2011?

8 wins 1 loss. The one loss is to Baylor.

when the other team shoots 33% or worse our record is 6-5.

 

[samspann1]

Duke wasn't a good outside shooting team this year - I think that we can all agree on this - but in both games that Zion played against us this season, they shot at a better clip from 3-point range against us than they did over the rest of season.

 

[malpearl31]

Duke wasn't a good outside shooting team this year - I think that we can all agree on this - but in both games that Zion played against us this season, they shot at a better clip from 3-point range against us than they did over the rest of season.

Duke shot 9-for-43 against us from 3-pt range on January 14th at Cameron. (Zion had 35 that night.) That's 20.9% from 3-pt range. Their season average to date is 30.5% from 3-pt range.

 

[samspann1]

Duke shot 9-for-43 against us from 3-pt range on January 14th at Cameron. (Zion had 35 that night.) That's 20.9% from 3-pt range. Their season average to date is 30.5% from 3-pt range.

I misspoke - but Duke was above 30.2% in the other 2 matchups.

Oregon, UConn, Baylor, VT, etc...

 

[malpearl31]

What frustrates me is when the zone, with in-game adjustments, is just not working in a particular game, and we stay in it. I'd hazard to guess that other than a few outliers, most people on this board don't want us to completely abandon the zone, or even play man-to-man a set % of the time. I just want to see it for a few series when a team is going on a run and you can just see the game slipping away.

I don't disagree with you in theory - I'm a fan of changing up defenses (especially after a timeout).

But two comments in response:
1.) It's just not going to happen while Jim is the Head Coach. Can we all agree that Jim is basically "ride or die" with the Zone?
2.) People say they want to see us play some man-to-man... but when Buddy gets stuck in a pick and roll switch and ends up having to guard a Coby White... or a big like Chewie ends up getting pulled out to the perimeter to defend Luke Maye at the 3-pt line... I don't think we're going to like the results.

 

[Millhouse]

Ok

 

[CuseCPT]

I don't disagree with you in theory - I'm a fan of changing up defenses (especially after a timeout).

But two comments in response:
1.) It's just not going to happen while Jim is the Head Coach. Can we all agree that Jim is basically "ride or die" with the Zone?
2.) People say they want to see us play some man-to-man... but when Buddy gets stuck in a pick and roll switch and ends up having to guard a Coby White... or a big like Chewie ends up getting pulled out to the perimeter to defend Luke Maye at the 3-pt line... I don't think we're going to like the results.

Agreed on point 1, which is why people are frustrated.

On point 2, yes, there are advantages to both defenses in particular situations and matchups. I don't think there is anything inherently better about man-to-man, I just want a surging team that is picking the zone apart to have to make different decisions when they bring the ball up the court. If it works, great, stay in man-to-man. If it doesn't, try full court press or switch back to zone. Ideally try these things before desperation time.

 

[malpearl31]

I misspoke - but Duke was above 30.2% in the other 2 matchups.

Oregon, UConn, Baylor, VT, etc...

To be fair, you posted that in both games when Zion played against us, that Duke shot better from 3 than their season average. That statement is 100% incorrect. They shot 20.9% the first game and 30.4% the second game when Zion played. Their season average from 3-pt range is 30.5%.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Duke wasn't a good outside shooting team this year - I think that we can all agree on this - but in both games that Zion played against us this season, they shot at a better clip from 3-point range against us than they did over the rest of season.

This shows there is no debate here. Actual data relevant to the concerns of people who don’t think our defense is effective is presented. The data shows that the zone is not really the problem people think it is. One response is a childish cartoon to make fun of the person and or their data (super helpful) and the very next response is to completely fabricate new data that matches the anti zone narrative (and which is totally false).

What more do we need to see?

 

[upperdeck]

i lot of pretty tough Man teams got torched in the first 3 days of the NCAA. this is not a zone vs man thing.. When teams are on they are on.. Even Virg shot lights out against is and then shot poorly several games.

its not just about wide open, its often about energy. when you make shots the basket is bigger.

 

[Ghost]

I don't disagree with you in theory - I'm a fan of changing up defenses (especially after a timeout).

But two comments in response:
1.) It's just not going to happen while Jim is the Head Coach. Can we all agree that Jim is basically "ride or die" with the Zone?
2.) People say they want to see us play some man-to-man... but when Buddy gets stuck in a pick and roll switch and ends up having to guard a Coby White... or a big like Chewie ends up getting pulled out to the perimeter to defend Luke Maye at the 3-pt line... I don't think we're going to like the results.

Good post.

I hate argument #2 for various reasons though. M2M isn't always going to be about that (results) in the way some people clamor about it. The goal isn't necessarily for us to unleash shock and awe and shut teams down...it's just to change up the complexion of the game, the tempo, whatever.

Also, I watch Florida State switch and have somebody who in 1,000,000 years of trying could not guard Ja Morant out on the perimeter guarding him - it's a laughable exercise in futility, laughable!

I just sat on my couch and laughed when the switch happened (not literally), but help defense shows up, and turnovers resulted quite a bit...M2M is always going to be about the well-coached team finding the best match-up and exploiting it. It doesn't mean the other teams scores 100% of the time because they can locate it though. That's sort of the same argument made over and over again against playing M2M, "look, we can't play M2M, even Cincy can't play M2M against Iowa, and they do it all the time!" The sky would fall. Would it?

If Buddy is so sad that he couldn't play a couple possessions of M2M because teams would screen and make him switch, and he'd fall to pieces, then the Coach should really be feeling bad that he played a kid like that 39 minutes in a NCAAT game. Buddy would survive. We all would.

 

[samspann1]

To be fair, you posted that in both games when Zion played against us, that Duke shot better from 3 than their season average. That statement is 100% incorrect. They shot 20.9% the first game and 30.4% the second game when Zion played. Their season average from 3-pt range is 30.5%.

per ESPN, their season average is 30.2%.

Duke shot at a higher clip than their season average, as stated by ESPN, from 3-pt range in 2 of 3 matchups against us this season.

 

[malpearl31]

Agreed on point 1, which is why people are frustrated.

On point 2, yes, there are advantages to both defenses in particular situations and matchups. I don't think there is anything inherently better about man-to-man, I just want a surging team that is picking the zone apart to have to make different decisions when they bring the ball up the court. If it works, great, stay in man-to-man. If it doesn't, try full court press or switch back to zone. Ideally try these things before desperation time.

I hear you - I just think that it's incorrect to say or think that teams don't have to make different decisions when we make our subtle adjustments within the zone.

If anybody watched Virginia's first round game against Gardner-Webb on Friday, there was a fantastic example of a subtle change to the defense that changed the game (without Virginia changing their defense itself). I think Raf was the announcer who pointed out that Virginia started the game with their bigs "showing strong" on the pick and roll, which allowed the Gardner-Webb big guy to slip his screen a couple of times for easy layups. Virginia was down 14 points - the score was 30-16 with under 7 minutes to play in the 1st half! Then, Tony Bennett made a subtle adjustment. He had his big (think it was Jay Huff at first) sitting back on the pick and roll a little more - precisely to take away the slipped screens that were killing them. But importantly, Tony Bennett stayed with their "pack line defense" man to man. On Gardner-Webb's next 25 possessions (after the 30-16 lead) they scored only 4 times... 21 empty possessions while Virginia remained in their base defense after making a subtle adjustment.

 

[Brooky03]

It's not easier to get open looks from 3 against our zone than it is to get open looks against m2m.

 

[malpearl31]

per ESPN, their season average is 30.2%.

Duke shot at a higher clip than their season average, as stated by ESPN, from 3-pt range in 2 of 3 matchups against us this season.

Well that's not even close to what you originally said - but you do you, my man. You're clearly incapable of admitting you were wrong in your original post, so there's no reason to continue any further dialogue with you.

 

[samspann1]

Well that's not even close to what you originally said - but you do you, my man. You're clearly incapable of admitting you were wrong in your original post, so there's no reason to continue any further dialogue with you.

See Post #11

I misspoke - but Duke was above 30.2% in the other 2 matchups.

 

[Orangello]

I'm not feeling better

 

[Cusefan95]

A lot of this reminds me of when Kansas went to a 1-3-1 in the 2003 championship game to try to slow us down; we torched it and they abandoned that plan quickly.

We have a lot of fans that want us to just try crap for the sake of “changing things up”...it’s mostly pointless armchair QBing.