Will Rutgers be our reality check game?

[SWC75]

2014: Coming off consecutive seasons where we started 16-1, (the Cleveland State game), 13-0, (and then 24-1), 18-0, 20-0, (and 31-1), 10-0, (and 18-1), and 25-0, we opened by beating Kennesaw State by 47 and Hampton by 18. We travelled to new York and played California, a team we'd beaten each of the previous two years. But this time we lost and went down hard, 59-73. We won three in a row after that but then lost 3 of 4, making it obvious that this team wasn't on the same level as our previous seasons. We finished 18-13.

2015: We won our first six games but by only 57 points. There was some concern and it was realized when we lost consecutive games to Wisconsin (58-66) and Georgetown (72-79), After beating Colgate by 27, we lost at St. John's 72-84. We lost our first four ACC games. After losing in the first round of the ACC tournament, our record was 19-13. Then we went on an amazing run to the Final Four. But it was a 23-14 team.

2016: JB was really enthused about the potential of this team and so we were. They won their first four games by 135 points and the good times were rolling. We went to Brooklyn and lost to South Carolina 50-64. Then we lost to Wisconsin again 60-77. After a 6 point win over North Florida we lost to Georgetown again, 71-78. W blew out Eastern Michigan 105-57 and it looked like we were back on track. Then came that awful St. John's game in the Dome, 60-93. We mostly alternated wins and losses the rest of the year, save for a 5 game winning streak, (including the 'Gillon game' in Raleigh that kept "The Streak" going. We upset Duke in the Dome on Gillons shot but we wound up losing to Mississippi in the second round of the NIT, 19-15

2017: We won our first 6 games by 68 points before losing to Kansas 60-76 in Miami. We then won 6 of 7 to go 12-1. then came a frustrating four game losing streak. We finished the regular season 19-12, split two game sin the AAT but then made a three game run in the NCAAs, almost making it four in a 65-69 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16.

2018: We beat Eastern Washington by 33 and Morehead State by 14. Then we went to New York and got handled by Connecticut, (76-83) and Oregon (65-80). (But Jalen Carey sure looked good!) WE wound up losing in the first round of the NCAAs to Baylor, ending with a 20-14 record.

2019: An opening 34-48 loss to Virginia was so predictable than it could be discounted, (and, indeed, we later beat them at their place). Never start your season against Virginia! We then won four game sin a row by 108 points and things looked better. Then we went to Brooklyn and Lost to Oklahoma State 72-86 and (ugh) Penn State 64-85. We then lost to Iowa 54-68, somehow blew out Georgia tech 97-63, then lost to our old pal Georgetown 79-89. We finished 18-14 when the Covid hit.

Each year we start out with the true fans' perennial optimism. The newcomers look good. The returnees are going to get better. We won't have the injuries that plagued us last year. The team chemistry is better. This is the year we break out of our rut... And then comes a game where our gonfalon bubble deflates and we are no better than were last year.

Or is this the year we win that game and go on to have a great year and get back to being the elite program we view ourselves as being?

 

[IthacaMatt]

2014: Coming off consecutive seasons where we started 16-1, (the Cleveland State game), 13-0, (and then 24-1), 18-0, 20-0, (and 31-1), 10-0, (and 18-1), and 25-0, we opened by beating Kennesaw State by 47 and Hampton by 18. We travelled to new York and played California, a team we'd beaten each of the previous two years. But this time we lost and went down hard, 59-73. We won three in a row after that but then lost 3 of 4, making it obvious that this team wasn't on the same level as our previous seasons. We finished 18-13.

2015: We won our first six games but by only 57 points. There was some concern and it was realized when we lost consecutive games to Wisconsin (58-66) and Georgetown (72-79), After beating Colgate by 27, we lost at St. John's 72-84. We lost our first four ACC games. After losing in the first round of the ACC tournament, our record was 19-13. Then we went on an amazing run to the Final Four. But it was a 23-14 team.

2016: JB was really enthused about the potential of this team and so we were. They won their first four games by 135 points and the good times were rolling. We went to Brooklyn and lost to South Carolina 50-64. Then we lost to Wisconsin again 60-77. After a 6 point win over North Florida we lost to Georgetown again, 71-78. W blew out Eastern Michigan 105-57 and it looked like we were back on track. Then came that awful St. John's game in the Dome, 60-93. We mostly alternated wins and losses the rest of the year, save for a 5 game winning streak, (including the 'Gillon game' in Raleigh that kept "The Streak" going. We upset Duke in the Dome on Gillons shot but we wound up losing to Mississippi in the second round of the NIT, 19-15

2017: We won our first 6 games by 68 points before losing to Kansas 60-76 in Miami. We then won 6 of 7 to go 12-1. then came a frustrating four game losing streak. We finished the regular season 19-12, split two game sin the AAT but then made a three game run in the NCAAs, almost making it four in a 65-69 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16.

2018: We beat Eastern Washington by 33 and Morehead State by 14. Then we went to New York and got handled by Connecticut, (76-83) and Oregon (65-80). (But Jalen Carey sure looked good!) WE wound up losing in the first round of the NCAAs to Baylor, ending with a 20-14 record.

2019: An opening 34-48 loss to Virginia was so predictable than it could be discounted, (and, indeed, we later beat them at their place). Never start your season against Virginia! We then won four game sin a row by 108 points and things looked better. Then we went to Brooklyn and Lost to Oklahoma State 72-86 and (ugh) Penn State 64-85. We then lost to Iowa 54-68, somehow blew out Georgia tech 97-63, then lost to our old pal Georgetown 79-89. We finished 18-14 when the Covid hit.

Each year we start out with the true fans' perennial optimism. The newcomers look good. The returnees are going to get better. We won't have the injuries that plagued us last year. The team chemistry is better. This is the year we break out of our rut... And then comes a game where our gonfalon bubble deflates and we are no better than were last year.

Or is this the year we win that game and go on to have a great year and get back to being the elite program we view ourselves as being?

Terrific recap. There has been lots of talent on some of these teams. Sometimes they could play terrific offense, sometimes they were painfully predictable. Sometimes (most times) we have had outstanding zones, but some years (and indeed, some games) the zone has been awful.

It seems like we can't find balance these past several years between offense and defense. ("Finding the right balance" is a phrase I hear a lot of in European football ...). I think part of the problem is the speed of player turnover in the modern college game. Yes, some of those years were affected by the sanctions, but that's been in the past for a while now.

We have had what seem like a lot of transfers, and by our historical standards, we have. But that, too, seems to be a nature of the "modern" game that all teams are adjusting to.

There have been some legitimate complaints about roster management, which happens when there were some "misses" in recruiting, some perhaps were avoidable (failing to have back-up plans on recruits leaving us bare or scrambling in more than a couple recent classes).

I hope that the wake up call isn't fierce. I don't think we are a "finished article" by any means. But like a lot of our recent teams, it looks like there is some very promising talent there, and we are only "a year away". But then a kid or two you were counting on for next year leaves. Kids feel like they don't get enough minutes. The publicity of the transfer portal makes it all so much easier for players to change teams, and for higher-end schools to restock on the elite players from the mid-majors who want their shot at the big time.

Whether or not those kids are hunting shots for themselves, or willing to buy into the team concept varies by individual. But the same is true of elite prospects from HS or the preps.

I don't know why, or how many of these reasons, factor into why the program has gone off the rails in recent times (again, by our historically elite and privileged status). But I know that how JB handles this roster when fully healthy will have a lot to say whether this team can rise to the top again or not.

I hope that Buddy's quarantine has forced Jim to play more kids, some of whom have particular skill sets not necessarily to REPLACE our other guys, but to supplement their skills and make up for their particular shortcomings as players, by plugging in that skill (interior defense, shot blocking, pressing, shooting, etc.) as it's needed, according to current game conditions.

It's like he has gone on auto-pilot as an in-game coach, and rides his guys to death.

I hope that has ended, he manages his roster better. We can see that there are enough good players on this team that he can play more than six of them for the whole season, and that each has ways they can help us.
Please use them.

 

[007]

Yes, this will be the first real test of what we really have. Great historical review, by the way.

 

[Briancuse]

Yes words I never thought I would utter in my life Rutgirls is the best ooc team on our schedule.

 

[Orangezoo]

I don't think these are all created equal. 2017 on we have looked like we were ripe for being beat up early from the start. Offense was putrid at times and depth was not evident. There are positive signs after the Bryant scare that weren't present in 17-19. Potential depth being a big one.

I don't think you can also chalk RU up as a reality check when we won't have two proven commodity starters. Last year Carey and Goodine had injury setbacks before the season even started but they weren't proven contributors yet. Buddy and Bourama is a different story. In a pandemic year, still lacking practices and a complete team I don't think you can look at RU as anything more than our first tough opponent on the schedule. It is pretty clear we haven't earned a thing yet. If we beat RU while being undermanned it would be a big win. At this juncture with current circumstances it's not all that meaningful.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I don't think these are all created equal. 2017 on we have looked like we were ripe for being beat up early from the start. Offense was putrid at times and depth was not evident. There are positive signs after the Bryant scare that weren't present in 17-19. Potential depth being a big one.

I don't think you can also chalk RU up as a reality check when we won't have two proven commodity starters. Last year Carey and Goodine had injury setbacks before the season even started but they weren't proven contributors yet. Buddy and Bourama is a different story. In a pandemic year, still lacking practices and a complete team I don't think you can look at RU as anything more than our first tough opponent on the schedule. It is pretty clear we haven't earned a thing yet. If we beat RU while being undermanned it would be a big win. At this juncture with current circumstances it's not all that meaningful.

They are Top 25 right now. We have lost to opponents worse than this for several years running now. I think winning this game and BC are very important to this season. I mean, we got "big boyed" against Penn State. We have to be ready to play.

 

[Orangezoo]

They are Top 25 right now. We have lost to opponents worse than this for several years running now. I think winning this game and BC are very important to this season. I mean, we got "big boyed" against Penn State. We have to be ready to play.

I'm not sure how we can point to them as important to the season when we are down two starters. BC I think is much more realistic but RU on the road with so much missing, plus still working back from a CoVid pause is putting a lot of expectation on this group. I really think you are taking the pandemic stuff for granted here vs looking at the whole picture. It's a gift there is even any college hoops right now. These guys are dealing with a completely different world to operate in. RU hasn't had the issues we have had recently with CoVid minus losing Baker.

This game is house money. Keep getting better and hopefully get a win.

 

[DoctorBombay]

I don't think these are all created equal. 2017 on we have looked like we were ripe for being beat up early from the start. Offense was putrid at times and depth was not evident. There are positive signs after the Bryant scare that weren't present in 17-19. Potential depth being a big one.

I don't think you can also chalk RU up as a reality check when we won't have two proven commodity starters. Last year Carey and Goodine had injury setbacks before the season even started but they weren't proven contributors yet. Buddy and Bourama is a different story. In a pandemic year, still lacking practices and a complete team I don't think you can look at RU as anything more than our first tough opponent on the schedule. It is pretty clear we haven't earned a thing yet. If we beat RU while being undermanned it would be a big win. At this juncture with current circumstances it's not all that meaningful.

Agree with this take. It’s a good measure of where we are, but in the overall scheme of things it probably won’t mean much. With Sidibe/Buddy out, and honestly in this season of Covid, there’s no guarantee what lineup you’re gonna post on a weekly basis.
For the sake of experience alone this game will be valuable, but who knows what it’ll mean in a week, month, or by March...if we even get there.

 

[lindros2]

Team finishes .500 with limited schedule; won't matter for 2020-21.

 

[eatmatsroe]

anytime u can beat a ranked opponent it's a big thing. this is a game they can win.

 

[Newhouser]

I think we start 6-0 and don't taste defeat until Wake. After that I think it's UNC and Fsu and that is when I think we will know what our reality is.

 

[stlorange]

Something to keep in mind, we would be the underdogs in this even with Bourama and Boeheim. Without either, I don't think we have a good chance, maybe 25%. Rutgers is a very good team. Playing later in the year, I might be convinced otherwise.

 

[upperdeck]

how do we know if either team is any good they have both played no one.. if you go by ESPN predictor we will be favored.

 

[Trueblue25]

rutgers dont match up favorably vs this zone. Joe’s gotta be active though.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Yes words I never thought I would utter in my life Rutgirls is the best ooc team on our schedule.

Well, they got that big kid Cllff Omoyuri who we were recruiting a couple years ago. They have another big man with him, both almost 7 footers, who block a lot of shots at the rim and have enough beef inside to push Marek around.

They just lost a couple kids, one who I think opted out before the season, and another who got hurt. They have some experienced players and a balanced offense with 3 guys averaging 15 PPG, including one of their big men.

This reminds me too much of that game we lost to Penn State. I never thought that would happen, ever. Even though it's Rutgers, they have some size.

 

[Eric15]

Man 2020 is just the weirdest year ever. Imagine if 10 years ago someone told you that this board would be euphoric from beating Rutgers (which I think we are going to do, and I will be euphoric as well).

 

[NineOneSeven]

Agree with this take. It’s a good measure of where we are, but in the overall scheme of things it probably won’t mean much. With Sidibe/Buddy out, and honestly in this season of Covid, there’s no guarantee what lineup you’re gonna post on a weekly basis.
For the sake of experience alone this game will be valuable, but who knows what it’ll mean in a week, month, or by March...if we even get there.

This season is going to be extremely odd. Players will miss games. Teams will need to adjust. Upsets will happen because of it all. More than ever, it's important to have roster flexibility and guys step up. Extremely important the JB played as many guys as he did the last 2.

We just don't know this year what will happen day to day.

 

[SWC75]

Man 2020 is just the weirdest year ever. Imagine if 10 years ago someone told you that this board would be euphoric from beating Rutgers (which I think we are going to do, and I will be euphoric as well).

I can still remember when Rutgers was our biggest game in the late 70's. Rosey Bouie vs. James Bailey. We were pretty euphoric when we beat them.

 

[Ceerqqq]

Reality check? You mean like hopeful fans suddenly realizing that their favorite team may not be as good as they hoped it would be?

I suppose that "mental adjustment" might apply to some people. But speaking for myself--as one of the most optimistic people expressing opinions in these parts--I don't see how a Rutgers loss would necessarily be devastating to my ultimate hopes for this team.

I mean, we are missing two of our most experienced starters for this game. Sidibe and Boeheim are key weapons we are depending on to defeat the stiffest competition we'll face at the end of the season. On paper, there's no way we win this game. The reasonable expectation is that we will lose, but how we lose given the handicaps we face is the bigger question to ponder.

Will it go down to the final buzzer? If so, then we'd reasonably be able to view the loss as an encouraging "victory" of sorts, given our roster limitations. If we end up getting "destroyed" (which I certainly do not expect) then my hopeful expectations would definitely take a hit, but it all depends, ya know? There could be 'extenuating circumstances' involved that we shouldn't necessarily expect to be repeated in future games.

And yet, in spite of the stark limitations this team faces vs Rutgers, I still see reason to hope that we'll be able to pull off a win anyway. The key to that dreamy outcome? IMO, defensive intensity. I expect to see it given this game's importance and the fact that these guys realize they're underdogs. If we can force some turnovers early on and maybe hit a couple of threes, I'll immediately see it as a game we can conceivably win.

If they do pull off a win, then I expect a lot of fans will indeed experience a 'reality check.' The chronic pessimists in our fan base would suddenly awaken to the possibility that their favorite team might end up being pretty special this season .

We'll find out soon enough...

 

[dollarbill44]

Man 2020 is just the weirdest year ever. Imagine if 10 years ago someone told you that this board would be euphoric from beating Rutgers (which I think we are going to do, and I will be euphoric as well).

Euphoric seems like an overstatement. I'll be happy with a win, but I certainly won't be euphoric. I save that feeling for Duke and UNC and postseason wins (in the imd days it was Gtown, SJU, Nova, BC, Pitt).

 

[IthacaMatt]

I'm not sure how we can point to them as important to the season when we are down two starters.

This game is house money. Keep getting better and hopefully get a win.

No, I disagree. If you don't beat Rutgers and BC, we're 3-2.

Win both and we're 5-0 with Buddy coming back and a couple more winnable games, Buffalo, Wake Forest and Notre Dame at home. (That could push us to 7-1 or 6-2, accounting for our depleted squad to play inconsistently now and again).

Then we hit a rough stretch, with 2 ranked teams - UNC and Fla State, then kind of a tough game with Clemson.

So, if we don't win both Rutgers and BC, we would be 3-2, lower on confidence, and facing possibly 3 or 4 losses in the next 6 games.

That would bring us back to .500, give or take, and firmly on the bubble again.

So these 2 games look pretty important to me.

 

[SUFan44]

Or will it be 2010?

Prior year, went to the Sweet 16 with Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris and Eric Devendorf. All three starters, all gone.

Lost to LeMoyne in an exhibition, then beat Robert Morris and Albany by a combined 72 points.

Head to NYC not knowing what to expect, facing a Cal team that was #12 in the country. We blitz them and beat them by 22. The next night, facing a top 5 team in North Carolina -- and the defending national champion -- we scorch the nets to the tune of 52% shooting and win by 16.

We would go on to have one of the best regular seasons in school history.

Hoping Bryant was our LeMoyne, and Rutgers is our Cal.

 

[capt.cuse]

I can still remember when Rutgers was our biggest game in the late 80's. Rosey Bouie vs. James Bailey. We were pretty euphoric when we beat them.

Actually that was the late 70's

 

[Wrinkle]

Or will it be 2010?

Prior year, went to the Sweet 16 with Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris and Eric Devendorf. All three starters, all gone.

Lost to LeMoyne in an exhibition, then beat Robert Morris and Albany by a combined 72 points.

Head to NYC not knowing what to expect, facing a Cal team that was #12 in the country. We blitz them and beat them by 22. The next night, facing a top 5 team in North Carolina -- and the defending national champion -- we scorch the nets to the tune of 52% shooting and win by 16.

We would go on to have one of the best regular seasons in school history.

Hoping Bryant was our LeMoyne, and Rutgers is our Cal.

I'm going to answer it right now, this is not 2010. That was a truly special team

 

[SUFan44]

I'm going to answer it right now, this is not 2010. That was a truly special team

I don’t think it is either. But there are as many cases of that type of arc for SU teams as the examples SWC presents. I am hopeful this year is closer to 2010.