Winning Plays 2019: Clemson | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays 2019: Clemson

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: CL 25, CL 25, CL 25
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 0
P: 49 to CL 21, 47 to CL 22, 54 to CL 3, 53 to CL 30, 51 to CL 21, 62 to CL 3, 52 to CL 19, 48 to CL 30, 51 to CL 27
Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 0
FG: Good from 29, Good from 23
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 0
XP:
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 Clemson 0

1r: 5, 4, 4, 2, 2, 1(3), 1, 1, -2, -3
Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 7
1p: 9, -8(s), I, 24(15), -7(s), -2(s), I, 17, I, -5(s), 5, Interception, I , 4, 6
Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 16
2r: 0, -3, 6, 5(6), 5(8), 6(12), -2, 2(5), 0, 1, 3(14), 5(6), 3(13)
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 8
2p: I, I, -8(s), 50, 8(20), 4, I, 2, 6(4), I
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 16
3r: 2(1), 1(12), 2(2), -1, 7(9), 3(11), -2
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 5
3p: I, -8(s), 12(4), 8(18), I, 6(25), I, 5, -10(s), 6(12), 12(7), I
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 10
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 15
4r: 1(3)
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 1
4p: -8(s), I
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 3

Total on running plays: Syracuse 11 Clemson 21
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 10 Clemson 29
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 21 Clemson 50

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -5, +5, -5, -5, -5, +15 Syracuse 3 Clemson 4

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 38 Clemson 54


When Clemson had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 15, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 7
P: 42 to SU 25, 35 to SU 41, 32 to SU 26, 37 to SU 24, 43 to SU 15
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 3
FG: Good from 40, Good from 37, No Good from 33
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 17

1r: 5, 9, 4, 7, 1, 6, 2, 0, 8, 7, 25, 15, -5, 3, 18(p), 6, 4, 3
Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 13
1p: 2, I, 7, 12(15), 13, I, Interception, 19, I, 48, 2, 11, 10, 7TD, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Clemson 21
2r: 6(3), 0, 8(2), 2(3), 15(7), 4(6), 57(7)
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 6
2p: I, 16(15), 16(3), 16TD, I, 9, I I, 2(3), 43(P), I, 7, Interception, 7(18), I, -4
Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 16
3r: 1TD, 0, 16(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 2
3p: I, 50(6-p), 9(4), I, I, I, I, 87TD, 6(11), I, I
Total: Syracuse 8 Clemson 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 8 Clemson 21
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Clemson 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 32 Clemson 39

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +15, -5, +15, -5, -10 Syracuse 3 Clemson 3

Game total when Clemson had the ball: Syracuse 39 Clemson 59

Overall game total: Syracuse 77 Clemson 113


Comments: Our kicking remained superb, winning all 14 plays in which an SU foot hit the ball. Sterling Hofrichter was beyond amazing, producing a change of from 47 to 62 yards in field positon with each punt. He averaged 52 NET yards per punt. Too bad we could take no advantage of it. We didn’t win any down on offense- a majority of our running and passing plays on 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th downs were failures, quite a record of consistency. 50 of our 71 plays from scrimmage produced the results Clemson would want, not the result we would want.

Defensively it was decidedly a mixed bag. We somewhat contained their running game but they still won 21 of the 29 plays: it doesn’t take a lot to win a running play. But we stopped them on 24 different passing plays including a couple of interceptions, (which we also took no advent age of). They won just 18 passing plays but they included gains of 48, 43 and 87 yards.


GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 4-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 = 11-0
P: 6-0 + 3-2 + 9-0 = 18-2
FG: 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 = 3-0
XP: 3-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 = 5-1
Kicking plays total: 14-0 + 9-3 + 14-0 = 37-3

1r: 5-13 + 9-3 + 4-7 = 18-23
1p: 3-8 + 10-10 + 6-9 = 18-27
First Down Total: 8-21 + 18-13 + 10-16 = 36-50
2r: 10-1 + 3-4 + 5-8 = 18-13
2p: 6-10 + 6-8 + 2-8 = 14-26
Second Down Total: 16-11 + 9-12 + 7-16 = 32-39
3r: 5-5 + 3-4 + 2-5 = 10-14
3p: 4-5 + 2-5 + 2-10 = 8-20
Third Down Total: 9-10 + 5-9 + 4-15 = 18-34
4r: 2-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 2-2
4p: 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 = 0-6
Fourth Down Total: 2-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 = 2-8

Total on running plays: 22-20 + 14-11 + 11-21 = 47-52
Total on passing plays: 13-24 + 18-26 + 10-29 = 41-79
Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-44 + 32-37 + 21-50 = 88-131

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 = 5-12

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 49-48 + 43-44 + 38-54 = 130-146


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-1 + 4-6 + 0-7 = 4-14
P: 2-6 + 2-1 + 3-3 = 7-10
FG: 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 = 1-3
XP: 0-0 + 0-9 + 0-5 = 0-14
Kicking plays total: 2-8 + 6-16 + 4-17 = 12-41

1r: 10-5 + 9-17 + 6-13 = 25-35
1p: 11-8 + 9-7 + 7-8 = 27-23
First Down Total: 21-13 + 18-24 + 13-21 = 52-58
2r: 5-2 + 5-7 + 1-6 = 11-15
2p: 12-6 + 6-7 + 9-7 = 27-20
Second Down Total: 17-8 + 11-14 + 10-13 = 38-35
3r: 5-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 = 6-7
3p: 8-2 + 4-7 + 8-3 = 20-12
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 4-11 + 9-5 = 26-19
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-0
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-0

Total on running plays: 20-8 + 14-28 + 8-21 = 42-57
Total on passing plays: 32-16 + 19-21 + 24-18 = 75-55
Total on plays from scrimmage: 52-24 + 33-49 + 32-39 = 117-112

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-4 + 0-3 + 3-3 = 4-10

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 55-36 + 39-68 + 39-59 = 133-163

Overall game total: 104-84 + 82-112 + 77-113 = 263-309

Comments: Our offensive performance vs. Liberty was about the same as Maryland. Which has to be an improvement because Maryland is obviously a lot better than Liberty.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 3,949 plays, (49.7%) and 17 games, (42.5%). The opposition has won 3,996 plays and 23 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 47 more plays than we have in 40 games, an average of 1.2 plays a game.

We lost this game by 36 plays, 6 more than Maryland, even though Maryland seemed worse. We’ve been beaten on a play-by-play basis a lot worse than we were in these two games. It’s all about the big plays and taking advantage of opportunities.

2013 Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38 score: 17-23
2013 Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72 score: 14-49
2013 Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67 score: 0-56
2013 Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49 score: 3-59
2014 Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43 score: 15-31
2014 Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68 score: 7-30
2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 score: 0-54
2016 Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 score: 20-35
2016 Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49 score: 14-45
It shows you that winning and losing plays doesn’t necessarily determine how bad you will be beaten but it makes it very likely that you will lose. The worst combined play and score margin was that awful afternoon at Georgia Tech. We lost the plays by 67 and the score by 56 = -123. Arruugh!
 

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