SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
The LIBERTY game
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: LIB 25, LIB 22, LIB 15, LIB 17
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 0
P: 63 to LIB 8(P), 41 to LIB 39(P), 44 to LIB 14, 25 to LIB 20, 39 to LIB 6, 51 to LIB 10 (P)
Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 0
FG: GOOD from 45
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
XP: GOOD, GOOD, GOOD
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 Liberty 0
1r: 2, 2, 4, 7, 8, 0, 3, 5, 20, 0, 1, 3, 0, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 13
1p: -5(S), I, I, 31, I, I, I, 8, 29, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 8 Liberty 21
2r: 6(8), 3(6), 2(4), 8(2), 1(2), 8, 3(5), 1TD, 4(7), 0, ,4
Total: Syracuse 10 Liberty 1
2p: 5(8), I, I, -2(S), 2(3), I, 7, I, I, 11(7), INT, 15, 3, I, 9(18), 2(7)
Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 16 Liberty 11
3r: 2(3), 0, 11, 9(12), 0, 2TD, 8(2), 0, 23(p), 8
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 5
3p: 29(2)(p), 3, 14, I, 11, 8(3), I, 4(19), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Liberty 10
4r: 5(3), 1(2), 42TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 1
4p: INT
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 22 Liberty 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 Liberty 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Liberty 44
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, -10, -10 Syracuse 0 Liberty 4
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 49 Liberty 48
When LIBERTY had the ball:
KO: SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 1
P: SU Fumble, 41 to SU 29, 47 to SU 22, 45 to SU 16, 10 to LIB 49, 38 to SU 37, 45 to SU 27, 40 to SU 26
Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 6
FG: NO GOOD from 43
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 8
1r: 12, 1(S), 0, 2, 6, 3, 2, -2(v), 5, 7, 1, -2, 3, 2, 0
Total: Syracuse 10 Liberty 5
1p: I, 20, -4, 56, 12, -7(s), 8, -12(s)(p), 12, I, 4, I, I, I, 9, I, 7, I, I
Total: Syracuse 11 Liberty 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Liberty 13
2r: -2, FUM, 5(4), 1, -1, 2(1), 2
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 2
2p: I, INT, I, 15(8), -6(s), -3, 11(5), 7(3), -7(s), -4(S), 9, I, I, I, 23, I, 5, 4(8), I
Total: Syracuse 12 Liberty 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 Liberty 8
3r: -8, 0, 6(16), 4(1), 1, FUM
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 1
3p: I, I, -7(s), -2, INT, -5(s), 18(7), 2, 17(8), I
Total: Syracuse 8 Liberty 2
Third Down Total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 3
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 20 Liberty 8
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 32 Liberty 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 52 Liberty 24
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +15, -15, +5, +5, +13 Syracuse 1 Liberty 4
Game total when LIBERTY had the ball: Syracuse 55 Liberty 36
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 104 Liberty 84
Comments: It was a game where I felt more comfortable when we were on defense than on offense. After a couple of big plays early, we basically had the Flames dormant for the last three quarters, allowing the offense to grind away until they broke through. Our offensive problems can be clearly focused on with the above number: first down runs, (5-13) and all passes (13-24). Incredibly we won 10 of 11 second down running plays. Perhaps the threat that me might pass was needed to loosen thing sup a bit. We ran the ball 62% of the time on first down, 23 of 50 times (46%) on other downs. A big concern is that we had no less than 8 running plays that resulted in no gain and Liberty, just up from FCS, had only 3 such plays. The kicking game picked up where it left off, 14-0 when Syracuse was kicking the ball vs. 2-8 when Liberty kicked the ball. Liberty’s punter was good (6 wins) but we gave away a play when Sean Riley fumbled at the Liberty 49. Last year we averaged starting drives at our 35 while to opposition started at their 27, +8 yards. In this game the gap was even bigger 34-20. We had a total of 923 yards to get to the goal line compared to 1,197 for the Flames, 274 yards of hidden yardage to add to our somewhat modest 368-234 advantage in total yardage. Other stats that held up: We were 10 for 24 on third and fourth down (42%). The Flames were 3 for 17 ((18%). Last year it was 40%-27%. Maybe the biggest single factor in last year’s turn-around was turnover margin, (-12 in 2017, +13 in 2018). It looked early as if this was going to turn against us as we had three first half turnovers. But we eventually forced four of them and came out ahead, although we’ve got to improve in this area on the offensive end. Give Maryland three turnovers and we’re likely to be in trouble.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
The LIBERTY game
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: LIB 25, LIB 22, LIB 15, LIB 17
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 0
P: 63 to LIB 8(P), 41 to LIB 39(P), 44 to LIB 14, 25 to LIB 20, 39 to LIB 6, 51 to LIB 10 (P)
Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 0
FG: GOOD from 45
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
XP: GOOD, GOOD, GOOD
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 Liberty 0
1r: 2, 2, 4, 7, 8, 0, 3, 5, 20, 0, 1, 3, 0, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 13
1p: -5(S), I, I, 31, I, I, I, 8, 29, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 8 Liberty 21
2r: 6(8), 3(6), 2(4), 8(2), 1(2), 8, 3(5), 1TD, 4(7), 0, ,4
Total: Syracuse 10 Liberty 1
2p: 5(8), I, I, -2(S), 2(3), I, 7, I, I, 11(7), INT, 15, 3, I, 9(18), 2(7)
Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 16 Liberty 11
3r: 2(3), 0, 11, 9(12), 0, 2TD, 8(2), 0, 23(p), 8
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 5
3p: 29(2)(p), 3, 14, I, 11, 8(3), I, 4(19), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Liberty 10
4r: 5(3), 1(2), 42TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 1
4p: INT
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 22 Liberty 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 Liberty 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 35 Liberty 44
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, -10, -10 Syracuse 0 Liberty 4
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 49 Liberty 48
When LIBERTY had the ball:
KO: SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 1
P: SU Fumble, 41 to SU 29, 47 to SU 22, 45 to SU 16, 10 to LIB 49, 38 to SU 37, 45 to SU 27, 40 to SU 26
Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 6
FG: NO GOOD from 43
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 8
1r: 12, 1(S), 0, 2, 6, 3, 2, -2(v), 5, 7, 1, -2, 3, 2, 0
Total: Syracuse 10 Liberty 5
1p: I, 20, -4, 56, 12, -7(s), 8, -12(s)(p), 12, I, 4, I, I, I, 9, I, 7, I, I
Total: Syracuse 11 Liberty 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Liberty 13
2r: -2, FUM, 5(4), 1, -1, 2(1), 2
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 2
2p: I, INT, I, 15(8), -6(s), -3, 11(5), 7(3), -7(s), -4(S), 9, I, I, I, 23, I, 5, 4(8), I
Total: Syracuse 12 Liberty 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 Liberty 8
3r: -8, 0, 6(16), 4(1), 1, FUM
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 1
3p: I, I, -7(s), -2, INT, -5(s), 18(7), 2, 17(8), I
Total: Syracuse 8 Liberty 2
Third Down Total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 3
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 20 Liberty 8
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 32 Liberty 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 52 Liberty 24
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +15, -15, +5, +5, +13 Syracuse 1 Liberty 4
Game total when LIBERTY had the ball: Syracuse 55 Liberty 36
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 104 Liberty 84
Comments: It was a game where I felt more comfortable when we were on defense than on offense. After a couple of big plays early, we basically had the Flames dormant for the last three quarters, allowing the offense to grind away until they broke through. Our offensive problems can be clearly focused on with the above number: first down runs, (5-13) and all passes (13-24). Incredibly we won 10 of 11 second down running plays. Perhaps the threat that me might pass was needed to loosen thing sup a bit. We ran the ball 62% of the time on first down, 23 of 50 times (46%) on other downs. A big concern is that we had no less than 8 running plays that resulted in no gain and Liberty, just up from FCS, had only 3 such plays. The kicking game picked up where it left off, 14-0 when Syracuse was kicking the ball vs. 2-8 when Liberty kicked the ball. Liberty’s punter was good (6 wins) but we gave away a play when Sean Riley fumbled at the Liberty 49. Last year we averaged starting drives at our 35 while to opposition started at their 27, +8 yards. In this game the gap was even bigger 34-20. We had a total of 923 yards to get to the goal line compared to 1,197 for the Flames, 274 yards of hidden yardage to add to our somewhat modest 368-234 advantage in total yardage. Other stats that held up: We were 10 for 24 on third and fourth down (42%). The Flames were 3 for 17 ((18%). Last year it was 40%-27%. Maybe the biggest single factor in last year’s turn-around was turnover margin, (-12 in 2017, +13 in 2018). It looked early as if this was going to turn against us as we had three first half turnovers. But we eventually forced four of them and came out ahead, although we’ve got to improve in this area on the offensive end. Give Maryland three turnovers and we’re likely to be in trouble.
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