SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 34,204
- Like
- 66,157
This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: MD 25, MD25, MD25, MD25
Total: Syracuse: 4 Maryland: 0
P: 34 to MD 33, 41 to MD 17, 52 to MD 14, 37 to MD 5, 32 to MD 21
Total: Syracuse: 3 Maryland: 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
XP: Good, No Good, Good
Total: Syracuse: 2 Maryland: 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 9 Maryland: 3
1r: 10, 4, 3(9), 10, 6, 4, 6, 4(15), 4, 6, 1
Total: Syracuse: 8 Maryland: 3
1p: I, I, 7, I, I, 7, 39, -6(s), 3, 9, 52TD, 16, -13(s), I, 10, -4, 11, 19, 5, 3(9)
Total: Syracuse: 10 Maryland: 10
First Down Total: Syracuse: 18 Maryland: 13
2r: 1, 4, -1, 3(4), 4, 3(15), 2(14)
Total: Syracuse: 3 Maryland: 4
2p: I, 5(3), 29(6), -3(s), Interception, 15TD, 10(16), -5(s), 2(1), 8(23), 10(11), I, 1(4), 0
Total: Syracuse: 6 Maryland: 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 9 Maryland: 12
3r: FUMBLE, 2(1), 1, 4(12), 2(1), 13(6), 0
Total: Syracuse: 3 Maryland: 4
3p: 2(9), 9TD, 3(11), 11(9), I, 9(12), I
Total: Syracuse: 2 Maryland: 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 5 Maryland: 9
4r: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
4p: I, I, I
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 3
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 3
Total on running plays: Syracuse: 14 Maryland: 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 18 Maryland: 26
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 32 Maryland: 37
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, -10, -5, -5, +10 Syracuse: 2 Maryland: 4
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse: 43 Maryland: 44
When MARYLAND had the ball:
KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 9, SU 25, SU 31, SU 29, SU 35, SU 25, SU 23, SU 43
Total: Syracuse: 4 Maryland: 6
P: 31 to SU 15, 17 to MD 48, 32 to SU 30
Total: Syracuse: 2 Maryland: 1
FG: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 9
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 6 Maryland: 16
1r: 3, 1(8), 3, 6, 7, 14, 3TD, 3, 2, 9, 20TD, 4, -2, 6, 3, 2, 3, 21, 8, 6, 5TD, 54, 28, 10TD, -1v, -1v
Total: Syracuse: 9 Maryland: 17
1p: 16, I, I, 17, I, 16, I, I, I, 1, 39, 6, 5, I, I, 5(4)
Total: Syracuse: 9 Maryland: 7
First Down Total: Syracuse: 18 Maryland: 24
2r: 7, 1(3), 4(7), 5, 7, 13(12), 64TD, 1(7), -1, -2, -1, 2(2)
Total: Syracuse: 5 Maryland: 7
2p: 40(7), 7TD, 24(12), I, 18, 14(8), I, I, 12(6), 15TD, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse: 6 Maryland: 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 11 Maryland: 14
3r: 3TD, 4(2), 6(1), 11
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 4
3p: 5(4), 7(3), -8(s), 23(5), 4(3), 29(9), I, 7(6), Interception, 7(5), 0
Total: Syracuse: 4 Maryland: 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 4 Maryland: 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse: 14 Maryland: 28
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 19 Maryland: 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 33 Maryland: 49
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -15 Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 3
Game total when MARYLAND had the ball: Syracuse: 39 Maryland: 68
Overall Game Total: Syracuse: 82 Maryland: 112
Comments: The shocking thing about this game was how much Maryland dominated the SU defense, which we thought was the strength of our team. We had one sack for 8 yards and it wasn’t by either of our All-America candidate ends: it was by back-up tackle Curtis Harper. We went from giving up -4 yards rushing to +354. We have been excellent on third downs from the beginning of last year. In this game Maryland converted 73% of their third downs. That, the turnovers and the big plays gave them complete control of the game.
The offense obviously performed better than the defense and its numbers are not disasterous. But they had a role in things as well. Two first half turnovers led to Maryland touchdowns. In the second half, the Orange offense was like my Mets yesterday: always getting guys on base but not getting the big hit. Down big, 13-49, we scored a touchdown, got a stop, started a drive on the Maryland 48, punted, got an interception and started at the Maryland 26, gained 2 yards and failed on fourth down, got a stop, drove to the Maryland 42 where we failed on fourth down again, gave up a touchdown, drove to the Maryland 8 where we again failed on fourth down. We got one more possession and punted on 4th and 6 from our 47 with 48 seconds left. Maryland just did the victory play twice. We had a chance to make that score respectable, (and maybe save GameDay) and whiffed.
Like everything else, our kicking game was sub-par. Sterling Hofrichter only punted 5 times because of turnovers and failed fourth down attempts. Two of those punts failed to change field position by 40 yards and didn’t put the ball inside the 20. He’s not a 60% guy. And Andre Szymt, for the first time in his career, missed an extra point. Going 4-6 on the opponents kickoffs and 2-1 on punts is good but I think you can see the problem there: 10 kickoffs and 3 punts. The average starting field position still favored us, but by a small margin: 31.5 vs. 29. We had 959 yards to go. they had 988, a 39 yard advantage, which wasn't that much of an advantage the way the teams were playing the game was going. .
Go figure: we were 5-13 on first down runs against Liberty and 8-3 vs. Maryland. One factor might be that we fell behind early and had to pass so when we ran it crossed the Terps up a bit. It obviously didn’t matter.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: MD 25, MD25, MD25, MD25
Total: Syracuse: 4 Maryland: 0
P: 34 to MD 33, 41 to MD 17, 52 to MD 14, 37 to MD 5, 32 to MD 21
Total: Syracuse: 3 Maryland: 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
XP: Good, No Good, Good
Total: Syracuse: 2 Maryland: 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 9 Maryland: 3
1r: 10, 4, 3(9), 10, 6, 4, 6, 4(15), 4, 6, 1
Total: Syracuse: 8 Maryland: 3
1p: I, I, 7, I, I, 7, 39, -6(s), 3, 9, 52TD, 16, -13(s), I, 10, -4, 11, 19, 5, 3(9)
Total: Syracuse: 10 Maryland: 10
First Down Total: Syracuse: 18 Maryland: 13
2r: 1, 4, -1, 3(4), 4, 3(15), 2(14)
Total: Syracuse: 3 Maryland: 4
2p: I, 5(3), 29(6), -3(s), Interception, 15TD, 10(16), -5(s), 2(1), 8(23), 10(11), I, 1(4), 0
Total: Syracuse: 6 Maryland: 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 9 Maryland: 12
3r: FUMBLE, 2(1), 1, 4(12), 2(1), 13(6), 0
Total: Syracuse: 3 Maryland: 4
3p: 2(9), 9TD, 3(11), 11(9), I, 9(12), I
Total: Syracuse: 2 Maryland: 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 5 Maryland: 9
4r: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
4p: I, I, I
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 3
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 3
Total on running plays: Syracuse: 14 Maryland: 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 18 Maryland: 26
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 32 Maryland: 37
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, -10, -5, -5, +10 Syracuse: 2 Maryland: 4
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse: 43 Maryland: 44
When MARYLAND had the ball:
KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 9, SU 25, SU 31, SU 29, SU 35, SU 25, SU 23, SU 43
Total: Syracuse: 4 Maryland: 6
P: 31 to SU 15, 17 to MD 48, 32 to SU 30
Total: Syracuse: 2 Maryland: 1
FG: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 9
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 6 Maryland: 16
1r: 3, 1(8), 3, 6, 7, 14, 3TD, 3, 2, 9, 20TD, 4, -2, 6, 3, 2, 3, 21, 8, 6, 5TD, 54, 28, 10TD, -1v, -1v
Total: Syracuse: 9 Maryland: 17
1p: 16, I, I, 17, I, 16, I, I, I, 1, 39, 6, 5, I, I, 5(4)
Total: Syracuse: 9 Maryland: 7
First Down Total: Syracuse: 18 Maryland: 24
2r: 7, 1(3), 4(7), 5, 7, 13(12), 64TD, 1(7), -1, -2, -1, 2(2)
Total: Syracuse: 5 Maryland: 7
2p: 40(7), 7TD, 24(12), I, 18, 14(8), I, I, 12(6), 15TD, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse: 6 Maryland: 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 11 Maryland: 14
3r: 3TD, 4(2), 6(1), 11
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 4
3p: 5(4), 7(3), -8(s), 23(5), 4(3), 29(9), I, 7(6), Interception, 7(5), 0
Total: Syracuse: 4 Maryland: 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 4 Maryland: 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse: 14 Maryland: 28
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 19 Maryland: 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 33 Maryland: 49
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -15 Syracuse: 0 Maryland: 3
Game total when MARYLAND had the ball: Syracuse: 39 Maryland: 68
Overall Game Total: Syracuse: 82 Maryland: 112
Comments: The shocking thing about this game was how much Maryland dominated the SU defense, which we thought was the strength of our team. We had one sack for 8 yards and it wasn’t by either of our All-America candidate ends: it was by back-up tackle Curtis Harper. We went from giving up -4 yards rushing to +354. We have been excellent on third downs from the beginning of last year. In this game Maryland converted 73% of their third downs. That, the turnovers and the big plays gave them complete control of the game.
The offense obviously performed better than the defense and its numbers are not disasterous. But they had a role in things as well. Two first half turnovers led to Maryland touchdowns. In the second half, the Orange offense was like my Mets yesterday: always getting guys on base but not getting the big hit. Down big, 13-49, we scored a touchdown, got a stop, started a drive on the Maryland 48, punted, got an interception and started at the Maryland 26, gained 2 yards and failed on fourth down, got a stop, drove to the Maryland 42 where we failed on fourth down again, gave up a touchdown, drove to the Maryland 8 where we again failed on fourth down. We got one more possession and punted on 4th and 6 from our 47 with 48 seconds left. Maryland just did the victory play twice. We had a chance to make that score respectable, (and maybe save GameDay) and whiffed.
Like everything else, our kicking game was sub-par. Sterling Hofrichter only punted 5 times because of turnovers and failed fourth down attempts. Two of those punts failed to change field position by 40 yards and didn’t put the ball inside the 20. He’s not a 60% guy. And Andre Szymt, for the first time in his career, missed an extra point. Going 4-6 on the opponents kickoffs and 2-1 on punts is good but I think you can see the problem there: 10 kickoffs and 3 punts. The average starting field position still favored us, but by a small margin: 31.5 vs. 29. We had 959 yards to go. they had 988, a 39 yard advantage, which wasn't that much of an advantage the way the teams were playing the game was going. .
Go figure: we were 5-13 on first down runs against Liberty and 8-3 vs. Maryland. One factor might be that we fell behind early and had to pass so when we ran it crossed the Terps up a bit. It obviously didn’t matter.
