Winning Plays 2019 - Western Michigan | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays 2019 - Western Michigan

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: WM 24, WM 25, WM 25, WM 28, WM 25, WM 25, WM 25
Total: Syracuse 7 Western Michigan 1
P: 48 to WM 28, recovered FUMBLE, 34 to WM 9, 54 to WM 9, 48 to WM 20
Total: Syracuse 5 Western Michigan 0
FG: Good from 24
Total: Syracuse 1 Western Michigan 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 7 Western Michigan 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 20 Western Michigan 1

1r: 0, 3(15), -1, 9, 3, 1, 3, 0, 5, 1, -1, 6, 6, 6, 4, 2, 3, 2, 18, 1, 5, 1
Total: Syracuse 9 Western Michigan 16
1p: 10, I, 6, 4, I, 5, -3, I, 46TD, 4(15), 8
Total: Syracuse 6 Western Michigan 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Western Michigan 21
2r: 60, 23, 4(1), 0, 4(7), FUMBLE, 1(5), 3, FUMBLE, -1, 4, -1
Total: Syracuse 5 Western Michigan 7
2p: 5(11), 22(24 +P auto first down), 6(7), -7(S), 1(6), I, 5, 12(9), I, 15(4), 6(4), 7(6), 2(11), 23(8), 11(8), 9TD, I
Total: Syracuse 11 Western Michigan 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 16 Western Michigan 13
3r: 1(1), 36TD, 10(4), 5(9), 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 3 Western Michigan 3
3p: 5(6), I, 10TDF, 22(11), -11(S), 14(5), -2(S), 59TD, I, 10
Total: Syracuse 5 Western Michigan 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Western Michigan 8
4r: 19(8)
Total: Syracuse 1 Western Michigan 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Western Michigan 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Western Michigan 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Western Michigan 26
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 Western Michigan 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 40 Western Michigan 42

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, -5, +15, -5, +5, -5, -5 Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 6

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 62 Western Michigan 49


When WESTERN MICHIGAN had the ball:

KO: SU 19, SU 31, 50, SU 19, SU 10
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 3
P: 41 to SU 26, 42 to SU 4, 19 to SU 17, 34 to SU 31
Total: Syracuse 1 Western Michigan 3
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Western Michigan 0
XP: Good, No Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Western Michigan 4
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Western Michigan 10

1r: 3, 1, 1, Fumble, 47TD, 3, 13, 2(3), 11, 19, 5, 3, 2, 0, 5, 2, 4, 1
Total: Syracuse 10 Western Michigan 8
1p: 10, I, 9, I, I, -6(S), I, 4, 6, 13, I, -4(S), I, 11, -5(S), I, 7
Total: Syracuse 10 Western Michigan 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 20 Western Michigan 15
2r: 1(9), 6(7), -3, 18(5), 43TD, 4(5), 8TD, 5(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 6
2p: 43, I, I, 19, I, 5, I, I, 23(4), 60, I, 10(8), 12(15), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Western Michigan 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Western Michigan 13
3r: 36TD, 2(1), -1, 0
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 2
3p: 6(7), 3(8), 24(14), 21, 39(5), I, I, 20(14), 10, I, I, INTERCEPTION
Total: Syracuse 7 Western Michigan 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Western Michigan 7
4r: -1, 0
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 0
4p: 2TD, I, I
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 4 Western Michigan 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 Western Michigan 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 Western Michigan 20
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 44 Western Michigan 36

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -5, -5, -5, +13, +15, +15 Syracuse 3 Western Michigan 4

Game total when WESTERN MICHIGAN had the ball: Syracuse 52 Western Michigan 50

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 114 Western Michigan 99


Comments: Being 9-16 in first down rushes is indicative that our offensive line still has a long way to go. 9 of the first 11 first down runs were unsuccessful plays. Our kicking game was against superb: 20-1. For the season we are 57-4 on plays where we kick the ball. You normally win the majority of those plays but the opposition is 51-17 by comparison. That’s 53 play edge for us vs. a 34 play edge for them. But in this game, (largely due to the fact that both teams had takeaways), there wasn’t a great difference in average starting position, our 36 vs. their 34. We had a total of 1,081 yards to go on 17 possessions. They had 1,051 to go on 16 possessions. We also did well on first down against the broncos, except for Bellamy’s one TD burst. In fact, second down runs were the only plays we didn’t win or tie when they had the ball. But they had 9 plays of 20 yards or more to our 8. This really was a replay of last year’s game with the 21-0 lead, (instead of 34-7), the scary comeback by the Broncos, (38-33 instead of 34-28), and SU finishing the game off with some late scoring. Winning Plays 2018: 109-96. Winning Plays 2019: 114-99. Déjà vu.


GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 4-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 7-1 = 18-1
P: 6-0 + 3-2 + 9-0 + 5-0 = 23-2
FG: 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 = 4-0
XP: 3-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 + 7-0 = 12-1
Kicking plays total: 14-0 + 9-3 + 14-0 + 20-1 = 57-4

1r: 5-13 + 9-3 + 4-7 + 9-16 = 27-39
1p: 3-8 + 10-10 + 6-9 + 6-5 = 25-32
First Down Total: 8-21 + 18-13 + 10-16 +15-21 = 51-71
2r: 10-1 + 3-4 + 5-8 + 5-7 = 23-20
2p: 6-10 + 6-8 + 2-8 + 11-6 = 25-32
Second Down Total: 16-11 + 9-12 + 7-16 + 16-13 = 48-52
3r: 5-5 + 3-4 + 2-5 + 3-3 = 13-17
3p: 4-5 + 2-5 + 2-10 + 5-5 = 13-25
Third Down Total: 9-10 + 5-9 + 4-15 8-8 = 26-42
4r: 2-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 3-2
4p: 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 = 0-6
Fourth Down Total: 2-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-0 = 3-8

Total on running plays: 22-20 + 15-11 + 11-21 +18-26 = 66-78
Total on passing plays: 13-24 + 18-26 + 10-29 + 22-16 = 63-95
Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-44 + 33-37 + 21-50 + 40-42 = 129-173

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 2-6 = 7-18

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 49-48 + 44-44 + 38-54 + 62-49 = 193-195


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-1 + 4-6 + 0-7 + 2-3 = 6-17
P: 2-6 + 2-1 + 3-3 + 1-3 = 8-13
FG: 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 = 1-3
XP: 0-0 + 0-9 + 0-5 + 1-4 = 1-18
Kicking plays total: 2-8 + 6-16 + 4-17 + 5-10 = 17-51

1r: 10-5 + 9-17 + 6-13 + 10-8 = 35-43
1p: 11-8 + 9-7 + 7-8 + 10-7 = 37-30
First Down Total: 21-13 + 18-24 + 13-21 + 20-15 = 72-73
2r: 5-2 + 5-7 + 1-6 + 2-6 = 13-21
2p: 12-6 + 6-7 + 9-7 + 9-7= 36-27
Second Down Total: 17-8 + 11-14 + 10-13 + 11-13 = 49-48
3r: 5-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 2-2 = 8-9
3p: 8-2 + 4-7 + 8-3 + 7-5 = 27-17
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 9-7 = 35-26
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 = 2-0
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 = 3-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 4-1 = 5-1

Total on running plays: 20-8 + 14-28 + 8-21 + 16-16 = 58-73
Total on passing plays: 32-16 + 19-21 + 24-18 + 28-20 = 103-75
Total on plays from scrimmage: 52-24 + 33-49 + 32-39 + 44-36 = 161-148

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-4 + 0-3 + 3-3 + 3-4 = 7-14

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 55-36 + 39-68 + 39-59 + 52-50 = 185-213

Overall game total: 104-84 + 82-112 + 77-113 + 114-99 = 377-408

Comments: Overall, we are 129-173 on offensive plays from scrimmage, which reflects the problems we’ve had in our offensive line. That’s got to be turned around if we are to make something of this season. It may not seem like it but we are actually 161-148 on defensive plays from scrimmage. It’s the big plays that have mattered. But we are once again very good at getting off the field on third or fourth down, (40-27). But we’ve lost that knack on offense, (29-50).


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 83 Maryland 112 = -29
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 114 Western Michigan 99 = +15

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 4,064 plays, (49.8%) and 18 games, (43.9%). The opposition has won 4,095 plays and 23 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 31 more plays than we have in 41 games, an average of 0.8 plays a game.
 

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