SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: BC 25, BC 40(p0, BC 25, Onside kick try-No Good
Total: Syracuse Boston College
P: 24 to BC 40(p), 46 to BC 4, 35 to BC 30, 32 to BC 34, 59 to BC 20
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 2
FG: Good from 35, Good from 46
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 4
1r: 0, 2, 2, 8, 6, 2, 2, -3, -1, 5, 15, 6, 1, Fumble
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 9
1p: I, 9, 24, 6, 8, -10(5), 5, 12, I, 1TD
Total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Boston College 12
2r: 2(8), 4(2), 8(1), 9(2)
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 1
2p: 1, 31, I, 4(2), I, I, 26(18), I, 6(4), I, -2(s), -7(s), I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 11
3r: -3
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
3p: 10(19), 3(6), 12(8), 2(4), I, 8(22), Interception, 18(5), 14
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 7
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 8 Boston College 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Boston College 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 22 Boston College 30
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -10, -15, -10 Syracuse 0 Boston College 5
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 29 Boston College 39
When BOSTON COLLEGE had the ball:
KO: SU 35, SU8(p), SU 30, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 3
P: 36 to SU 17, 17 to SU 20, 25 to SU 46, 36 to SU 20
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 3
FG: Good from 33, No Good from 52, No Good from 39, Good from 34, Good from 22
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 3
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 10
1r: 7, 4, 3, 7, 4, 2, 0, 2, 1, 5, 6, 8, 3, 5, 5, 17, -2, 7, 2, 1, -2v
Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 12
1p: 11(15), I, -4, I, 9, 20TD, 9, 7
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Boston College 17
2r: 6(4), 2(3), 2(6), 6(7), 8(1), 793), 4(6), 21, 4(5), 6(4), -10, 6(1), 3(5), 2(5), 2(3), 2(3), 4(80, 7(9)
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 15
2p: I, 8(19), 13, I, 5, I, 37(1), 7(2), I, 10(27)
Total: Syracuse 6 Boston College 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 19
3r: 3(1), 791), 3(2), 4(3), 10(2), 0, -2, 8(4), 2(2)
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 7
3p: I, 8(19), 13, I, 5, I, 37(10, 7920, I, 10(27)
Total: Syracuse 6 Boston College 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Boston College 34
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 15 Boston College 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 29 Boston College 47
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5 , -13, -10 Syracuse 5 Boston College 0
Game total when BOSTON COLLEGE had the ball: Syracuse 39 Boston College 57
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 68 Boston College 96
Comments: For some reason, we were competitive defending BC’s first down runs, (9-12) but hopeless defending second down runs (3-15). We had one third down run in this game and it was a three-yard loss. BC got the first down 7 times in 9 third down runs. They were getting close enough to run the ball on third down and they were good enough to make them. We weren’t. BC had 21 first downs, (13 obtained rushing) to 14, (4 rushing). For the year, we have been out-first downed, 146-249. That makes it impossible to control tempo, although we did that on a couple of drive in this game.
Nolan Cooney is actually averaging more yards per punt, (45.31) than Sterling Hofrichter was last year, (43.86) and yet last year we ‘won’ 56 of our 70 punts, meaning that we gained a net 40 yards or the other team had to start from withing their 20. This year we are only 30-18, and only 9-7 in our last three games. Part of it is coverage, (and, perhaps, hang time): last year we were third in the country in net punting 43.03. This year are a still good but lesser 41.85, which is 23rd. But I think another reason is our offense: we aren’t getting close enough to the other team’s goal line to drop the ball into that last 1/5 of the field.
Since 2018 we’d usually had a big advantage in turnovers but without Tommy DeVito, who avoided them and Andre Cisco and Trill Williams, who took them over, we’ve lost that edge. Through the first 5 games this year we were +11, (5 to 16). Since the Clemson game, we are -8, (9-1).
Both teams had only 11 possessions in this game, (because BC was running the ball so consistently but not getting the huge plays they got last year). because of what ahs become the turnover problem and because of BC’s first downs, they averaged starting on their own 36 with a cumulative 700 yards to go to score. We averaged starting on our 26 with 816 yards to go, a hidden 116 yards for the Eagles, who outgained us
This game wound up 68-96 in plays won, -28. These are the most similar games in the Babers era:
2016: Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62
2016: Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29 We lost 9-28
2016: Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 We lost 20-35
2017: Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35
2017: Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 We lost 19-27
2019: Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 We lost 20-63
2020: Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23 We lost 14-38
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: BC 25, BC 40(p0, BC 25, Onside kick try-No Good
Total: Syracuse Boston College
P: 24 to BC 40(p), 46 to BC 4, 35 to BC 30, 32 to BC 34, 59 to BC 20
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 2
FG: Good from 35, Good from 46
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 4
1r: 0, 2, 2, 8, 6, 2, 2, -3, -1, 5, 15, 6, 1, Fumble
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 9
1p: I, 9, 24, 6, 8, -10(5), 5, 12, I, 1TD
Total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Boston College 12
2r: 2(8), 4(2), 8(1), 9(2)
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 1
2p: 1, 31, I, 4(2), I, I, 26(18), I, 6(4), I, -2(s), -7(s), I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 11
3r: -3
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
3p: 10(19), 3(6), 12(8), 2(4), I, 8(22), Interception, 18(5), 14
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 7
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 8 Boston College 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Boston College 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 22 Boston College 30
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -10, -15, -10 Syracuse 0 Boston College 5
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 29 Boston College 39
When BOSTON COLLEGE had the ball:
KO: SU 35, SU8(p), SU 30, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 3
P: 36 to SU 17, 17 to SU 20, 25 to SU 46, 36 to SU 20
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 3
FG: Good from 33, No Good from 52, No Good from 39, Good from 34, Good from 22
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 3
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 10
1r: 7, 4, 3, 7, 4, 2, 0, 2, 1, 5, 6, 8, 3, 5, 5, 17, -2, 7, 2, 1, -2v
Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 12
1p: 11(15), I, -4, I, 9, 20TD, 9, 7
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Boston College 17
2r: 6(4), 2(3), 2(6), 6(7), 8(1), 793), 4(6), 21, 4(5), 6(4), -10, 6(1), 3(5), 2(5), 2(3), 2(3), 4(80, 7(9)
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 15
2p: I, 8(19), 13, I, 5, I, 37(1), 7(2), I, 10(27)
Total: Syracuse 6 Boston College 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 19
3r: 3(1), 791), 3(2), 4(3), 10(2), 0, -2, 8(4), 2(2)
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 7
3p: I, 8(19), 13, I, 5, I, 37(10, 7920, I, 10(27)
Total: Syracuse 6 Boston College 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Boston College 34
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 15 Boston College 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 29 Boston College 47
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5 , -13, -10 Syracuse 5 Boston College 0
Game total when BOSTON COLLEGE had the ball: Syracuse 39 Boston College 57
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 68 Boston College 96
Comments: For some reason, we were competitive defending BC’s first down runs, (9-12) but hopeless defending second down runs (3-15). We had one third down run in this game and it was a three-yard loss. BC got the first down 7 times in 9 third down runs. They were getting close enough to run the ball on third down and they were good enough to make them. We weren’t. BC had 21 first downs, (13 obtained rushing) to 14, (4 rushing). For the year, we have been out-first downed, 146-249. That makes it impossible to control tempo, although we did that on a couple of drive in this game.
Nolan Cooney is actually averaging more yards per punt, (45.31) than Sterling Hofrichter was last year, (43.86) and yet last year we ‘won’ 56 of our 70 punts, meaning that we gained a net 40 yards or the other team had to start from withing their 20. This year we are only 30-18, and only 9-7 in our last three games. Part of it is coverage, (and, perhaps, hang time): last year we were third in the country in net punting 43.03. This year are a still good but lesser 41.85, which is 23rd. But I think another reason is our offense: we aren’t getting close enough to the other team’s goal line to drop the ball into that last 1/5 of the field.
Since 2018 we’d usually had a big advantage in turnovers but without Tommy DeVito, who avoided them and Andre Cisco and Trill Williams, who took them over, we’ve lost that edge. Through the first 5 games this year we were +11, (5 to 16). Since the Clemson game, we are -8, (9-1).
Both teams had only 11 possessions in this game, (because BC was running the ball so consistently but not getting the huge plays they got last year). because of what ahs become the turnover problem and because of BC’s first downs, they averaged starting on their own 36 with a cumulative 700 yards to go to score. We averaged starting on our 26 with 816 yards to go, a hidden 116 yards for the Eagles, who outgained us
This game wound up 68-96 in plays won, -28. These are the most similar games in the Babers era:
2016: Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 We lost 28-62
2016: Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29 We lost 9-28
2016: Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 We lost 20-35
2017: Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35
2017: Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 We lost 19-27
2019: Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 We lost 20-63
2020: Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23 We lost 14-38