SWC75
Bored Historian
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU 20, SU 28, SU 9, SY 25, SU 25, SU 8, SU 7, SU 21. SU 24, SU 20, SU 6, SU 1 Average: 194/12 = SU 16 with 1,006 yards to go, 242 more than Boston College.
KO: BC 20, BC 25, BC 25, BC 25
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 0
P: 49 to BC 34, 41 to BC 25, 38 to BC 34, 49 to BC 47, 8 to SU 19
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Boston College 2
1r: 2, 1, 4, 1, 4(6), 6, 37, 0, -2, 0, 0, 3, 11, 51TD, 4, 6, 1, 5, 3, 10, 11, 5, 7, -1v
Total: Syracuse 14 Boston College 10
1p: 14(15), 4, -12(s)
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 1
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Boston College 11
2r: 7(6), 0, -1, 7(4), 5(12), 14(7), 3(4), 41(9), 0, -1, 4(5), 4(3), -1v
Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 5
2p: I, I, 9(14), I, I, I, 15(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Boston College 10
3r: 2(1), 21, 48TD, 2(5), 3(8), 7(1), -1v
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 2
3p: I, 23(9), Fumble, I, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Boston College 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
4p: I, -14(s)
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 27 Boston College 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 5 Boston College 12
(There are 44 runs and 17 passes because BC had three sacks and I count sacks as passing plays)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 32 Boston College 29
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15, -5, -4 Syracuse 1 Boston College 4
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 43 Boston College 35
Big Plays: Turnover on downs, 23 yard pass, 37 yard run, 21 yard pass, 51 yard TD run, 48 yard TD run, 65 yard TD punt return, -22 yard TFL, 41 yard run, Turnover on downs = 10 big plays which directly produced 3 touchdowns.
When Boston College had the ball:
Drive Starts: BC 34, BC 38, BC 37, BC 25, BC 34, BC 47, BC 20, BC 25, BC 25, BC 25, BC 45, SU 19 Average: 436/12 = BC 36 with 764 yards to go, 242 less than Syracuse
KO: SU 20, SU 25, SU 21
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 3
P: 45 to SU 9, 37 to SU 25, 30 to SU 8, 50 to SU 7, 46 to SU 24, SU Touchdown, 25 to SU 20, 54 to SU 6
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 6
FG: Good from 31, Good from 24
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 11
1r: 7, 5, 2, 1, 9, 4, 8, 1, 7, 4, 4, 5, 0, 5, -22
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 10
1p: 10, 7, I, I, -10(s), 40, I, 6 -1, I, 10, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Boston College 15
2r: 3(3), 5(3), -2, 3(50, 1(6), 6(20, 0, 8(20), 6(3), 5(6), 5, 9(5), 0, 8(11),
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 9
2p: I, 4(11), 6(1), I, -2(s), I, -7(s), I, I, 8(9)
Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Boston College 11
3r: 8(12), 11(10), 2(9), -2, 2(1), 2(3)
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 2
3p: I, 44(8), I, -7(s), 6(5), 4(11), I, I, 28(4), -8(s), I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 13 Boston College 5
4r: 3(1), 0
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 1
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Boston College 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Boston College 11
(BC was credited with 40 runs and 32 passes due to sacks)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Boston College 33
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5 Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
Game total when Boston College had the ball: Syracuse 43 Boston College 44
Big Plays: 35 yard fumble return from BC 3, 44 yard pass which led to a field goal, 40 yard pass, Turnover on downs, 33 yard punt return = 5 big plays that produced 1 field goal and likely prevented another SU score.
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 86 Boston College 79
Comments: Syracuse started drives at their own 1, their 6, their 7, their 8 and their 9. Matt Park said it was too bad they weren’t playing Yahtzee! In football this meant that our average starting spot for a possession was 20 yards less than BC’s and that we had to gain 242 more yards to score over the 12 possessions each team had.
Yet we won by 15 points by playing great defense and making big plays. We made twice as many of them and they produced 7 times as many points.
I suspect that we aren’t going to win many games with just 5 successful passing plays on offense. But we aren’t going to lose too many games where the other team has “XP: none”.
So this game was 86-79 = +7 in ‘plays won’. Here are the most similar games of the Dino Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9 We won 28-20
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 We lost 23-30
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 We lost 37-44
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
2021 Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10 We lost 37-40
2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU 20, SU 28, SU 9, SY 25, SU 25, SU 8, SU 7, SU 21. SU 24, SU 20, SU 6, SU 1 Average: 194/12 = SU 16 with 1,006 yards to go, 242 more than Boston College.
KO: BC 20, BC 25, BC 25, BC 25
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 0
P: 49 to BC 34, 41 to BC 25, 38 to BC 34, 49 to BC 47, 8 to SU 19
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Boston College 2
1r: 2, 1, 4, 1, 4(6), 6, 37, 0, -2, 0, 0, 3, 11, 51TD, 4, 6, 1, 5, 3, 10, 11, 5, 7, -1v
Total: Syracuse 14 Boston College 10
1p: 14(15), 4, -12(s)
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 1
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Boston College 11
2r: 7(6), 0, -1, 7(4), 5(12), 14(7), 3(4), 41(9), 0, -1, 4(5), 4(3), -1v
Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 5
2p: I, I, 9(14), I, I, I, 15(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Boston College 10
3r: 2(1), 21, 48TD, 2(5), 3(8), 7(1), -1v
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 2
3p: I, 23(9), Fumble, I, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Boston College 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
4p: I, -14(s)
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 27 Boston College 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 5 Boston College 12
(There are 44 runs and 17 passes because BC had three sacks and I count sacks as passing plays)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 32 Boston College 29
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15, -5, -4 Syracuse 1 Boston College 4
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 43 Boston College 35
Big Plays: Turnover on downs, 23 yard pass, 37 yard run, 21 yard pass, 51 yard TD run, 48 yard TD run, 65 yard TD punt return, -22 yard TFL, 41 yard run, Turnover on downs = 10 big plays which directly produced 3 touchdowns.
When Boston College had the ball:
Drive Starts: BC 34, BC 38, BC 37, BC 25, BC 34, BC 47, BC 20, BC 25, BC 25, BC 25, BC 45, SU 19 Average: 436/12 = BC 36 with 764 yards to go, 242 less than Syracuse
KO: SU 20, SU 25, SU 21
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 3
P: 45 to SU 9, 37 to SU 25, 30 to SU 8, 50 to SU 7, 46 to SU 24, SU Touchdown, 25 to SU 20, 54 to SU 6
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 6
FG: Good from 31, Good from 24
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 11
1r: 7, 5, 2, 1, 9, 4, 8, 1, 7, 4, 4, 5, 0, 5, -22
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 10
1p: 10, 7, I, I, -10(s), 40, I, 6 -1, I, 10, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Boston College 15
2r: 3(3), 5(3), -2, 3(50, 1(6), 6(20, 0, 8(20), 6(3), 5(6), 5, 9(5), 0, 8(11),
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 9
2p: I, 4(11), 6(1), I, -2(s), I, -7(s), I, I, 8(9)
Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Boston College 11
3r: 8(12), 11(10), 2(9), -2, 2(1), 2(3)
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 2
3p: I, 44(8), I, -7(s), 6(5), 4(11), I, I, 28(4), -8(s), I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 13 Boston College 5
4r: 3(1), 0
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 1
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 2
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Boston College 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Boston College 11
(BC was credited with 40 runs and 32 passes due to sacks)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Boston College 33
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5 Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
Game total when Boston College had the ball: Syracuse 43 Boston College 44
Big Plays: 35 yard fumble return from BC 3, 44 yard pass which led to a field goal, 40 yard pass, Turnover on downs, 33 yard punt return = 5 big plays that produced 1 field goal and likely prevented another SU score.
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 86 Boston College 79
Comments: Syracuse started drives at their own 1, their 6, their 7, their 8 and their 9. Matt Park said it was too bad they weren’t playing Yahtzee! In football this meant that our average starting spot for a possession was 20 yards less than BC’s and that we had to gain 242 more yards to score over the 12 possessions each team had.
Yet we won by 15 points by playing great defense and making big plays. We made twice as many of them and they produced 7 times as many points.
I suspect that we aren’t going to win many games with just 5 successful passing plays on offense. But we aren’t going to lose too many games where the other team has “XP: none”.
So this game was 86-79 = +7 in ‘plays won’. Here are the most similar games of the Dino Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9 We won 28-20
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 We lost 23-30
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 We lost 37-44
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
2021 Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10 We lost 37-40
2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6
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