Winning Plays - Boston College | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays - Boston College

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 20, SU 28, SU 9, SY 25, SU 25, SU 8, SU 7, SU 21. SU 24, SU 20, SU 6, SU 1 Average: 194/12 = SU 16 with 1,006 yards to go, 242 more than Boston College.

KO: BC 20, BC 25, BC 25, BC 25
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 0
P: 49 to BC 34, 41 to BC 25, 38 to BC 34, 49 to BC 47, 8 to SU 19
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Boston College 2

1r: 2, 1, 4, 1, 4(6), 6, 37, 0, -2, 0, 0, 3, 11, 51TD, 4, 6, 1, 5, 3, 10, 11, 5, 7, -1v
Total: Syracuse 14 Boston College 10
1p: 14(15), 4, -12(s)
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 1
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Boston College 11
2r: 7(6), 0, -1, 7(4), 5(12), 14(7), 3(4), 41(9), 0, -1, 4(5), 4(3), -1v
Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 5
2p: I, I, 9(14), I, I, I, 15(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Boston College 10
3r: 2(1), 21, 48TD, 2(5), 3(8), 7(1), -1v
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 2
3p: I, 23(9), Fumble, I, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Boston College 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
4p: I, -14(s)
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 27 Boston College 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 5 Boston College 12
(There are 44 runs and 17 passes because BC had three sacks and I count sacks as passing plays)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 32 Boston College 29

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15, -5, -4 Syracuse 1 Boston College 4

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 43 Boston College 35

Big Plays: Turnover on downs, 23 yard pass, 37 yard run, 21 yard pass, 51 yard TD run, 48 yard TD run, 65 yard TD punt return, -22 yard TFL, 41 yard run, Turnover on downs = 10 big plays which directly produced 3 touchdowns.


When Boston College had the ball:

Drive Starts: BC 34, BC 38, BC 37, BC 25, BC 34, BC 47, BC 20, BC 25, BC 25, BC 25, BC 45, SU 19 Average: 436/12 = BC 36 with 764 yards to go, 242 less than Syracuse

KO: SU 20, SU 25, SU 21
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 3
P: 45 to SU 9, 37 to SU 25, 30 to SU 8, 50 to SU 7, 46 to SU 24, SU Touchdown, 25 to SU 20, 54 to SU 6
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 6
FG: Good from 31, Good from 24
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 11

1r: 7, 5, 2, 1, 9, 4, 8, 1, 7, 4, 4, 5, 0, 5, -22
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 10
1p: 10, 7, I, I, -10(s), 40, I, 6 -1, I, 10, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Boston College 15
2r: 3(3), 5(3), -2, 3(50, 1(6), 6(20, 0, 8(20), 6(3), 5(6), 5, 9(5), 0, 8(11),
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 9
2p: I, 4(11), 6(1), I, -2(s), I, -7(s), I, I, 8(9)
Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Boston College 11
3r: 8(12), 11(10), 2(9), -2, 2(1), 2(3)
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 2
3p: I, 44(8), I, -7(s), 6(5), 4(11), I, I, 28(4), -8(s), I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 13 Boston College 5
4r: 3(1), 0
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 1
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Boston College 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Boston College 11
(BC was credited with 40 runs and 32 passes due to sacks)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Boston College 33

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5 Syracuse 0 Boston College 1

Game total when Boston College had the ball: Syracuse 43 Boston College 44

Big Plays: 35 yard fumble return from BC 3, 44 yard pass which led to a field goal, 40 yard pass, Turnover on downs, 33 yard punt return = 5 big plays that produced 1 field goal and likely prevented another SU score.

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 86 Boston College 79

Comments: Syracuse started drives at their own 1, their 6, their 7, their 8 and their 9. Matt Park said it was too bad they weren’t playing Yahtzee! In football this meant that our average starting spot for a possession was 20 yards less than BC’s and that we had to gain 242 more yards to score over the 12 possessions each team had.

Yet we won by 15 points by playing great defense and making big plays. We made twice as many of them and they produced 7 times as many points.

I suspect that we aren’t going to win many games with just 5 successful passing plays on offense. But we aren’t going to lose too many games where the other team has “XP: none”.

So this game was 86-79 = +7 in ‘plays won’. Here are the most similar games of the Dino Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9 We won 28-20
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 We lost 23-30
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 We lost 37-44
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
2021 Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10 We lost 37-40
2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6
 
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SWC75

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GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 261/9 = S29, 292/13 = S22, 540/14 = S39, 322/12 = S27, 498/14 = S36, 283/13 = SU22, 194/12 = SU 16 Season: 2,389/87 = S27 with 6,311 yards to go, 286 more than the opposition.

KO: 3-3 + 2-0 + 10-0 + 4-0 + 5-1 + 5-1 + 3-0 + 4-2 + 4-0 = 40-7
P: 2-0 + 4-4 + 0-1 + 5-2 + 1-5 + 1-5 + 5-2 + 3-3 + 3-2 = 24-24
FG: 2-0 + 0-1 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 9-4
XP: 3-0 + 1-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 3-1 + 3-1 + 0-1 + 4-1 + 3-0 = 28-4
Kicking plays total: 10-3 + 7-5 + 20-1 + 13-3 + 10-7 + 10-8 + 10-3 + 11-7 + 10-2 = 101-39

1r: 16-8 + 5-9 + 12-12 + 15-12 + 13-9 + 15-10 + 10-11 + 8-11+ 14-10 = 108-92
1p: 5-1 + 4-8 + 5-4 + 1-2 + 5-3 + 6-6 + 3-5 + 8-7 + 2-1 = 39-37
First Down Total: 21-9 + 9-17 + 17-16 + 16-14 + 18-12 + 21-16 + 13-16 + 16-18 + 11-11 = 147-129
2r: 10-4 + 3-5 + 8-5 + 13-4 + 5-9 + 15-3 + 2-3 + 10-1 + 8-5 = 74-39
2p: 4-3 + 6-5 + 6-3 + 4-3 + 1-2 + 4-4 + 4-12 + 4-9 + 2-5 = 35-46
Second Down Total: 14-7 + 9-10 + 14-8 + 17-7 + 6-11 + 19-7 + 6-15 + 14-10 + 10-10 = 109-85
3r: 6-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 3-4 + 0-2 + 4-2 + 1-1 + 6-2 + 5-2 = 27-15
3p: 2-4 + 2-11 + 3-3 + 1-5 + 2-8 + 2-5 + 5-8 + 2-6 + 1-4 = 20-54
Third Down Total: 8-4 + 3-12 + 4-4 + 4-9 + 2-10 + 6-7 + 6-9 + 8-8 + 4-6 = 47-69
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 = 5-3
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-2 = 2-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 4-0 + 0-2 = 7-6

Total on running plays: 32-12 + 10-15 + 22-18 + 31-20 + 18-22 + 34-15 + 13-16 + 27-14 + 27-17 = 214-149
Total on passing plays: 11-8 + 12-24 + 14-10 + 6-10 + 8-14 + 12-15 + 13-25 + 15-22 + 5-12 = 96-140
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-20 + 22-39 + 36-28 + 37-30 + 26-36 + 46-30 + 26-41 + 42-36 + 22-29 = 300-289

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-0 + 0-3 + 1-8 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1+ 1-3 + 0-5 + 1-4 = 4-26

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 53-23 + 29-47 + 57-37 + 51-35 + 36-43 + 56-39 + 37-47 + 53-48 + 43-35 = 415-354


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 139/8 = O17, 573/14 = 41, 391/14 = O28, 289/12 = O24, 378/13 = O29, 469/14 = O34, 436/12 = BC 36 Total: 2,675/87 = O31 with 6,025 yards to go, 286 less than Syracuse.

KO: 4-1 + 0-3 + 3-2 + 0-4 + 4-2 + 1-5 + 0-4 + 1-5 + 0-3 = 13-29
P: 1-0 + 0-6 + 5-4 + 0-5 + 2-4 + 2-3 + 3-5 + 2-2 + 3-6 = 18-35
FG: 1-3 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-2 = 3-14
XP: 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-3 + 1-2 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-0 = 2-20
Kicking plays total: 6-4 + 1-12 + 8-10 + 1-12 + 7-11 + 4-12 + 3-12 + 3-14 + 3-11 = 36-98

1r: 7-9 + 5-12 + 9-3 + 7-8 + 7-10 + 15-9 + 7-12 + 11-11 + 5-10 = 73-84
1p: 5-5 + 5-6 + 7-5 + 6-9 + 8-7 + 4-7 + 5-7 + 5-4 + 7-5 = 52-55
First Down Total: 12-14 + 10-18 + 16-8 + 13-17 + 15-17 + 19-16 + 12-19 + 16-15 + 12-15 = 125-139
2r: 3-9 + 6-6 + 5-1 + 3-9 + 5-4 + 7-7 + 3-9 + 8-6 + 5-9 = 45-60
2p: 5-5 + 3-9 + 7-4 + 3-4 + 6-5 + 4-8 + 10-5 + 3-3 + 8-2 = 49-45
Second Down Total: 8-14 + 9-15 + 12-5 + 6-13 + 11-9 + 11-15 + 13-14 + 11-9 + 13-11 = 94-105
3r: 2-3 + 5-3 + 4-1 + 1-5 + 5-4 + 0-4 + 2-1 + 4-2 + 4-2 = 27-25
3p: 4-3 + 7-0 + 4-4 + 5-0 + 4-2 + 8-4 + 7-5 + 1-5 + 9-3 = 49-26
Third Down Total: 6-6 + 12-3 + 8-5 + 6-5 + 9-6 + 8-8 + 9-6 + 5-7 + 13-5 = 76-51
4r: 0-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 3-6
4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 = 3-3
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-3 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 = 6-9

Total on running plays: 12-22 + 17-24 + 18-5 + 12-22 + 17-19 + 22-20 + 12-22 + 23-19 + 15-22 = 148-175
Total on passing plays: 15-13 + 15-15 + 18-13 + 14-13 + 18-15 + 16-20 + 23-17 + 10-12 + 24-11 = 153-129
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-35 + 32-39 + 36-18 + 26-35 + 35-34 + 38-39 + 35-39 + 33-31 + 39-33 = 301-304

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 2-3 + 2-4 + 1-1 + 1-2 + 4-1 + 4-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 = 16-14

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 33-40 + 35-54 + 46-32 + 28-48 + 41-47 + 46-53 + 42-52 + 37-46 + 43-44 = 353-416

Overall game total: 86-63 + 64-101 + 103-69 + 79-83 + 79-90 + 102-92 + 79-99 + 90-94 + 86-79 = 768-770

Comments: We are +61 (415-354) when we have the ball and -63 (353-416) when our opponents have the ball. Defensively, we’re pretty good on 3rd and 4th down, (especially third down passes: 49-26), but give up too much on 1st and 2nd down. We also just have 6 takeovers in 9 games after 31, 25 and 24, (total: 80), in the last three years (36 games) and are -3 for the year.

We are now a dreadful 20-54 on third down passes. We and our opposition have gained first downs or touchdowns 46 times from 149 third down passes, (31%)

The opposition has won 35 of their 54 punting plays, (65%). We are just 24-24 on ours.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 768-775 -1 We’ve won 4 of 9 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 6,454 plays, (48.8%) and 25 games, (36.2%). The opposition has won 6,781 plays and 44 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 327 more plays than we have in 69 games, an average of 4.7 plays a game.
 
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upperdeck

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it does make you scratch your head when a team runs for 70 vs 300 runs for 1.8 vs 6.2 and this says they won the rushing game

also confused Su ran 47 runs and 14 passes thats 61 plays your stats say 51 plays? BC ran 40/32 thats 72 plays and you have 77? Where did all those missing plays go?

some would say well we have the 2 big runs.. so remove them and we still run for 200 on 50 carries thats 5ypp still pretty solid.
 

SWC75

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it does make you scratch your head when a team runs for 70 vs 300 runs for 1.8 vs 6.2 and this says they won the rushing game

also confused Su ran 47 runs and 14 passes thats 61 plays your stats say 51 plays? BC ran 40/32 thats 72 plays and you have 77? Where did all those missing plays go?

some would say well we have the 2 big runs.. so remove them and we still run for 200 on 50 carries thats 5ypp still pretty solid.

I'm glad you looked more closely at the box score numbers than I did.

I use the play-by-play on Cuse.com:
It's a little strange because they repeat several of the possessions but I assume the accounting of individual plays is accurate.

I've just double checked my listings other following errors, the last a big one:
- I had a first quarter 8 yard run by BC listed as as pass
- I had a 3rd quarter SU incompletion on third down when it was on second down..
- I put the numbers for SU's last drive on the Boston College page.

I'm in the process of revising my WORD document and will change my initial post accordingly when I finish with it.
 
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SWC75

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I think that will fix it. At least, it's all I plan on doing tonight.
 

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