Winning Plays- Florida State | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays- Florida State

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 25 SU8, SU25, FS 23, SU 5, SU 35, SU 25, SU 25, SU 33, SU 7, SU 34 = 324/12 = SU 27 with 876 yards to go.

KO: FS 25 Offside to SU 44
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
P: 40 to FS 28, 32 to SU 47, 38 to FS 48, 11 to S 24, 45 to FS 18, 46 to FS 29, 29 to FS 38, 41 to FS 38
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 4
FG: Good from 30, NG from 53
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 6

1r: 4, 5, 16, 1, 2, 4, 5, 4, 7, 21(p), 11, 7(20), 7, 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 3
1p: I, -1, I, 10(20), I, -6(s)
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Florida State 8
2r: 6, -4,1(5), 1, 1(12), 5(11), 6(3), 7(16), 18(13p), 10(3)
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 6
2p: I, I, I, I, 17, Interception
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 11
3r: 1(4), 4(11), 8(16)
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 3
3p: -10(s), I, 44(p), -6(s), 6(8), I, 4(6), I
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Florida State 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 3 Florida State 17
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 18 Florida State 29

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -2, -10, -5, -10, -5, -10 Syracuse 0 Florida State 6

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 24 Florida State 41

Big Plays: 44(p) pass, Fumble recovery, 21 rush (p)


When FLORIDA STATE had the ball:

Drive Starts: FS 28, SU 47, FS 48, FS 25, FS 35, SU 24, FS 18, SU 42, FS 29, FS 38, FS 42, FS 38 = 438/12 = FS 41 with 712 yards to go.

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 35, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 5
P: 39 to SU 8, 45 to SU 5, 37 to SU 7
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 3
FG: Good from 40, No Good from 51
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 14

1r: 1, 8, 5, 1, 4, 5, 0, 5, 5, 4(8), 4, 7(9), 17, 5, 3, 1, 12, 4, -2
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 13
1p: 3, 14, 2(17), 15TD, -3, 24TD, 4, 21, 2, 4, I, 6, 17, -8(s)
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 18
2r: 27(7), 15(9), 1(2), 7(5), 6(6), 11(10), 24, 5(5), -1, 30(6), 1(2), 5(18), 3(2), 4(11), -1, 1(17)
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 11
2p: 5(15), 10(5), 16(9), Fumble, -1, 12, 10(5), -5(s), 0, 10(5),
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 16
3r: 3(1), -1
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
3p: I, 7, 5TD, I, I, 24(7), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 4
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
4p: 2TD, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Florida State 25
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 Florida State 17
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Florida State 42

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, +5, +5, -5, +5, -5, -5 Syracuse 5 Florida State 3

Game total when FLORIDA STATE had the ball: Syracuse 35 Florida State 59

Big Plays: 27 run, 24pass-TD, 21 pass, 24 run, 30 run, 24 pass

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 59 Florida State 100


Comments: Strangely, we were quite productive on first down running plays, (11-3), even though we lacked a passing game or a quarterback who could run. Unfortunately, we were 4-9 after that and our passing was pathetic on all downs, (3-17). Our two ‘big’ offensive plays were both penalty-aided. Florida State had 6 ‘big’ plays from scrimmage, none penalty-aided.

Florida State punted three times and each was fair caught by two different SU recruiters inside of our 10 yards line, giving the ball to our crippled offense with more than 90 yards to go for a score.

Our last four games haven’t been fun to watch:
Syracuse 77 Clemson 102 = -25
Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47
Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 105 = -39
Syracuse 59 Florida State 100 = -41

Here the games in the Dino Babers Era most similar to this one, in terms of plays won and lost:
2019 Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43 We lost 27-58
2020 Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44 We lost 6-31
2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47
2021 Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37 We lost 7-17
2022 Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 105 = -39 We lost 9-19
We aren’t going to win unless we can win our share of plays or get some big ones.
 

SWC75

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SEASON TOTALS

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 341/10 = S34, 482/12 = S40, 302/11 = S27, 424/13 = S33, 368/10 =S37, 248/8 =S31, 290/12 = S24, 403/15 = S27, 348/13, 324/12 = S27 TOTAL: 3,530/116 = S30 with 8,070 yards to go

KO: 4-2 + 9-0 + 6-0 + 5-1 + 8-2 + 5-0 + 3-1 + 3-2 + 3-2 + 1-1 = 47-11
P: 3-0 + 1-1 + 3-3 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 4-3 + 0-6 + 2-5 + 4-4 = 21-23
FG: 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 5-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 3-1 + 1-1 = 16-3
XP: 4-0 + 6-0 + 4-0 + 1-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 0-0 = 0-0 = 32-0
Kicking plays total: 12-2, 18-1, 14-4 + 14-1 + 17-2 + 10-1 + 10-4 + 7-8 + 8-8 + 6-6 = 116-37

1r: 15-5 + 15-10 + 9-7 + 6-15 + 16-3 + 7-9 + 7-6 + 5-8 + 4-4 + 11-3 = 95-70
1p: 7-5 + 7-4 + 7-7 + 6-7 + 11-0 + 5-7 + 7-6 + 6-8 + 6-6 + 1-5 = 63-55
First Down Total: 22-10 + 22-14 + 16-14 + 12-22 + 27-3 + 12-16 + 14-12 + 11-16 + 10-10 + 12-8 = 158-125
2r: 8-3 + 10-7 + 7-7 + 3-6 + 7-4 + 7-2 + 4-1 + 2-2 + 3-4 + 4-6 = 55-42
2p: 7-5 + 9-3 + 3-5 + 7-5 + 6-0 + 9-2 + 6-6 + 4-10 + 1-7 + 1-5 = 53-48
Second Down Total: 15-8 + 19-10 + 10-12 + 10-11 + 13-4 + 16-4 + 10-7 + 6-12 + 4-11 + 5-11 = 108-90
3r: 7-2 + 4-0 + 1-2 + 2-3 + 6-2 + 3-2 + 2-2 + 2-1 + 3-2 + 0-3 = 30-19
3p: 0-3 + 3-4 + 3-6 + 4-7 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-6 + 2-8 + 1-8 + 1-7 = 17-50
Third Down Total: 7-5 + 7-4 + 4-8 + 6-10 + 7-2 + 4-3 + 3-8 + 4-9 + 4-10 + 1-10 = 47-69
4r: 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 2-1
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 3-4

Total on running plays: 30-10 + 29-18 + 17-16 + 11-24 + 30-9 + 18-13 + 13-9 + 9-11 + 10-10 + 15-12 = 182-132
Total on passing plays: 14-13 + 19-11 + 14-18 + 17-19 + 18-0 + 15-10 + 14-19 + 12-28 + 8-21 + 3-17 = 134-156
Total on plays from scrimmage: 44-23 + 48-29 + 31-34 + 28-43 + 48-9 + 33-23 + 27-28 + 21-39 + 18-31 + 18-29 = 316-288

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-16 + 1-2 + 7-4 + 3-10 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-7 + 2-3 + 5-3 + 0-6 = 18-59

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 56-41 + 67-32 + 52-42 + 45-54 + 65-16 + 43-27 + 37-39 + 30-50 + 31-42 + 24-41 = 450-384



When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 199/9 = L22, 269/11 = C24, 352/13 = P27, 556/14 = V40, 259/10 = W26, 229/9 = NCS 25 400/13 = C31, 628/19 = ND45 461/13 = P35, FS 488/12 = FS41 TOTAL: 3,841/123= O31 with 8,459 yards to go

KO: 0-2 + 2-1 + 2-3 + 1-3 + 1-0 + 2-2 + 0-6 + 2-6 + 1-3 + 1-5 = 12-31
P: 1-2 + 3-3 + 1-2 + 0-4 + 7-2 + 1-3 + 0-2 + 1-3 + 4-3 + 0-3 = 18-27
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-1 + 1-1 = 4-11
XP: 0-1 + 0-2 + 2-2 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-5 + 0-2 + 0-5 = 4-21
Kicking plays total: 1-5 + 5-6 + 6-8 + 4-9 + 8-2 + 3-8 + 1-12 + 3-17 + 5-9 + 2-14 = 38-90

1r: 7-9 + 8-8 + 8-2 + 4-9 + 8-4 + 10-6 + 9-16 + 9-19 + 12-13 + 6-13 = 81-99
1p: 4-3 + 1-1 + 14-10 + 10-6 + 1-1 + 5-4 + 7-6 + 3-4 + 3-5 + 6-8 = 54-48
First Down Total: 11-12 + 9-9 + 22-12 + 14-15 + 9-5 + 15-10 + 16-22 + 12-23 + 15-18 + 12-21 = 135-147
2r: 3-5 + 5-4 + 3-4 + 3-7 + 7-3 + 3-4 + 7-18 + 8-12 + 2-13 + 5-11 = 46-81
2p: 7-3 + 2-3 + 6-13 + 7-7 + 3-0 + 9-6 + 3-2 + 1-3 + 4-4 + 5-5 = 47-46
Second Down Total: 10-8 + 7-7 + 9-17 + 10-14 + 10-3 + 12-10 + 10-20 + 9-15 + 6-17 + 10-16 = 93-127
3r: 3-2 + 0-3 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 5-2 + 3-5 + 3-4 + 3-4 + 3-4 + 1-1 = 22-28
3p: 3-3 + 6-2 + 5-8 + 9-2 + 4-0 + 7-1 + 5-2 + 6-2 + 3-5 + 4-3 = 52-28
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-5 + 6-10 + 9-3 + 9-2 + 10-6 + 8-6 + 9-6 + 6-9 + 5-4 = 74-56
4r: 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 4-6
4p: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 4-3
Fourth Down Total: 2-0 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-3 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 8-9

Total on running plays: 15-16 + 13-15 + 13-9 + 7-17 + 20-9 + 16-17 + 20-40 + 20-36 + 17-30 + 12-25 = 153-214
Total on passing plays: 14-9 + 10-6 + 25-31 + 27-16 + 8-1 + 22-12 + 15-10 + 10-9 + 10-14 + 16-17 = 157-125
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-25 + 23-21 + 38-40 + 34-33 + 28-10 + 38-29 + 35-50 + 30-45 + 27-44 + 28-42 = 310-339

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 6-2 + 1-0 + 3-2 + 5-3 + 2-0 + 5-1 + 4-1 + 3-1 + 3-0 + 5-3 = 37-13

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 36-32 + 29-27 + 47-50 + 43-45 + 38-12 + 46-38 + 40-63 + 36-63 + 35-53 + 35-59 = 385-442

Overall Game Totals: 92-73 + 96-59 + 99-92 + 88-99 + 103-28 + 89-65 + 77-102 + 66-113 + 66-105 + 59-100 = 835-836

Comments: In the six game winning streak, we kicked off 42 times and punted 16 times In the four game losing streak we’ve kicked off 16 times and punted 24 times. That’s a good trend. But our punting, which was 15-8 through seven games is now 21-23 after going 6-15 the last two games. We were 95-15 on our kicking plays through the Clemson game. Since then, we are 21-22.

We are 266-215 on first and second down and 30-19 on third down runs, (which means they weren’t third and long). We are a pathetic 17-50 on third down passes but 52-28 against their third down passes. Third down passes are HARD. You need to either pass before then or run the ball so well that you can have third down runs.

Our advantage in the kicking game has been reduced to 116-37 vs. 90-38. We were 84-83 against opposition running plays prior to the Clemson game. We are 69-131 since.

The opposition has now caught us in winning plays on the year, 835-836.
 

SWC75

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HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35
Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23
Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28
TOTAL: Syracuse 956 opponents 1044 = -88 We ‘won’ 4 of 12 games

2022
Syracuse 92 Louisville 73 = +19
Syracuse 96 Connecticut 59 = +37
Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7
Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11
Syracuse 103 Wagner 28 = +75
Syracuse 89 North Carolina State 65 = +24
Syracuse 77 Clemson 102 = -25
Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47
Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 105 = -39
Syracuse 59 Florida State 100 = -41 We’ve ‘won’ 5 of 9 games
TOTAL: Syracuse 835 opponents 836 = +40
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 7,477 plays, (48.7) and 30 games, (36.6%). The opposition has won 7,891 plays and 52 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 414 more plays than we have in 82 games, an average of 5.0 plays a game. (We have regressed to our mean.)
 

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