Winning Plays - Georgia Tech

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU25, SU25, SU30, SU11, SU25, SU20, SU8, GT32, SU25 = 237/9 = SU26 with 663 yards to go.

KO: GT25, GT25, GT25, GT35, GT22, GT25
Total: Syracuse 5 Georgia Tech 1
P: Blocked, 38 to GT11
Total: Syracuse 1 Georgia Tech 1
FG: Blocked, Good from 32
Total: Syracuse 1 Georgia Tech 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Georgia Tech 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 11 Georgia Tech 3

1r: 6, 2, 8, 0, 3, 15, 0, 3, 3, 1, -3, 4, -2v
Total: Syracuse 5 Georgia Tech 6
1p: 10, I, 11TD, 5(p), 6(5), 21, I, 5, 4td, 32, 5, 9, 30(20), 8, I, I, I, 4, 7, I, 0
Total: Syracuse 14 Georgia Tech 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 Georgia Tech 15
2r: 1, 1(2), , -2, 5(7), 3(2), 4(7), 4, 3, 4(6), 10(3), 8, 24(6), -1v
Total: Syracuse 9 Georgia Tech 4
2p: 20(4), I, 3, -5(s), 6(5), 9(5), 20TD, I, 4, I, 10(9), 17TD, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Georgia Tech 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 16 Georgia Tech 10
3r: 0, 15(2), 4(2), -2v
Total: Syracuse 2 Georgia Tech 2
3p: 28, 11(7), I, 32(15), 8(3), I, 5(6), 9(3), 7(6), I, I, 13
Total: Syracuse 7 Georgia Tech 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Georgia Tech 7
4r: 12(1), 11(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Georgia Tech 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Georgia Tech 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Georgia Tech 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Georgia Tech 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 Georgia Tech 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 32

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5 Syracuse 0 Georgia Tech 2

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 57 Georgia Tech 37

Big Plays: 20p, 28p, 21p, 32p, 32p, 20pTD, 30p, 24r = 8 plays

Comments: Our first 7 big plays were passes. After that, it was one run that clinched the game. Our TDs came on plays of 11, 11, 20 and 17 yards. This game was about first downs and red zone scoring, not long bombs. We attempted 21 first down passes. In the past that might have been our total for the game. How many games are we going to have two kicks blocked and lose and onside kick and win? It’s easier to do that when you are scoring 30+ points per game.


When Georgia Tech had the ball:

Drive Starts: GT25, GT26, GT25, GT25, GT41, GT35, GT22, GT11, GT25, GT44 = 279/10 = GT28 with 721 yards to go

KO: SU25, SU25, SU25, recovered onsides kick, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Georgia Tech 5
P: 39 to SU 30, 44 to SU 11, 41 to SU 20, 49 to SU 8
Total: Syracuse 1 Georgia Tech 3
FG: No Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Georgia Tech 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Georgia Tech 4
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Georgia Tech 12

1r: -1, 2(5), 0, 1, 5, 5, 3, 1, 7, 1(5)
Total: Syracuse 6 Georgia Tech 4
1p: 8, 12, 7, 45, 0, 3, 5, 3, 5, 7, I, I, I, 10, 7, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Georgia Tech 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Georgia Tech 13
2r: 2(3), 21TD, 1, -1, 5(5), 3(5), 6(3), 1, 6(3), 1, 8
Total: Syracuse 4 Georgia Tech 7
2p: I, 16, 4(9), I, 15, 8(12), I, 5(5), 14(20), 4TD, 12, 2(3)
Total: Syracuse 4 Georgia Tech 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Georgia Tech 15
3r: 3(1), 4(7), 7(2), 2(1), 15(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Georgia Tech 4
3p: 19(11), I, I, 26TD, 3, I, 6(7), 22(p9) 20(6)
Total: Syracuse 5 Georgia Tech 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Georgia Tech 8
4r: -3
Total: Syracuse 1 Georgia Tech 0
4p: 14(3)
Total: Syracuse 0 Georgia Tech 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Georgia Tech 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Georgia Tech 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 Georgia Tech 22
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Georgia Tech 37

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 3 Georgia Tech 1

Game total when Georgia Tech had the ball: Syracuse 33 Georgia Tech 50

Big Plays: 21rTD, blocked kick, 46p, 26pTD, blocked kick, 22p(p9), 20p, onside kick recovered = 9

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87

Comments: The game total doesn’t suggest we dominated this game. Neither does the final score. Our run defense was 12-17 vs. Ohio U and 12-15 in this game but we didn’t give up runs as big as the ones in the Bobcat game. The most impressive thing in this one was that we won against a better team than our first opponent.

This was a +3 game. The closest games to this from the Dino Babers Era:

2017 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 We won 27-24
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 We lost 37-44 in OT
2022 Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84 = +1 We lost 20-28
2023 Syracuse 76 Georgia Tech 73 = +3 We lost 22-31
2023 Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 78 = +4 We won 35-31

If winning plays are close, the final score is likely to be as well.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 284/11 = S26/816, 237/9 = S26/663 TOTAL: 521/20 =S26 with 1,479 yards to go

KO: 7-0 + 5-1 = 12-1
P: 3-0 + 1-1 = 4-1
FG: 1-0 + 1-1 = 2-1
XP: 5-0 + 4-0 = 9-0
Kicking plays total: 16-0 + 11-3 = 27-3

1r: 7-10 + 5-8 = 12-18
1p: 8-6 + 14-7 = 22-13
First Down Total: 15-16 + 19-15 = 34-31
2r: 3-6 + 9-4 = 12-10
2p: 8-5 + 7-6 = 15-11
Second Down Total: 11-11 + 16-10 = 27-21
3r: 1-1 + 2-2 = 3-3
3p: 8-5 + 7-5 = 15-10
Third Down Total: 9-6 + 9-7 = 18-13
4r: 1-0 + 2-0 = 3-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 2-0 = 3-0

Total on running plays: 12-17 + 18-14 = 30-31
Total on passing plays: 24-16 + 28-18 = 52-34
Total on plays from scrimmage: 36-33 + 46-32 = 82-65

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 0-2 = 0-3

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 52-34 + 57-37 = 109-71

Big plays: 6 + 8 = 14

Comments: We are a good passing team that has had trouble sustaining a running attack. But we haven’t really tried to, except at the end of the GT game: this is a pass-first team. We’ve done well converting 3rd and 4th downs.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 241/11 = O22/859, 279/10 = O28/721 TOTAL= 520/21 =O25 with 1,580 yards to go. (They have had 2 more possessions than we have.)

KO: 0-6 + 0-5 = 0-11
P: 0-3 + 1-3 = 1-6
FG: 0-3 + 1-0 = 1-3
XP: 0-2 + 0-4 = 0-6
Kicking plays total: 0-14 + 2-12 = 2-26

1r: 8-13 + 6-4 = 14-17
1p: 7-8 + 7-9 = 14-17
First Down Total: 15-21 + 13-13 = 28-34
2r: 1-9 + 4-7 = 5-16
2p: 5-6 + 4-8 = 9-14
Second Down Total: 6-15 + 8-15 = 14-30
3r: 1-2 + 1-4 = 2-6
3p: 5-3 + 5-4 = 10-7
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-8 = 12-13
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 = 1-0
4p: 0-1 + 0-1 = 0-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-1 = 1-2

Total on running plays: 10-24 + 12-15 = 22-39
Total on passing plays: 17-18 + 16-22 = 33-40
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-42 + 28-37 = 55-79

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 3-1 = 4-4

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 28-59 + 33-50 = 61-109

Big Plays: 7 + 9 = 16

Overall Game Total: 80-93 + 90-87 = 170-180

Comments: Our run defense improved in the second game but still isn’t really strong yet. For some reason, we are particularly weak on second down. We are 2-0 but the opposition has won 10 more plays than we have. We are blade-running. We need to improve to be a truly strong team.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS – The Fran Brown Era

2024
Ohio University 80-93 = -13
Georgia Tech 90-87 = +3
TOTAL: Syracuse: 170 Opponents 180 = -10
We have won 48.6% of the plays, (Dino Babers won 48.8%) and 50% of the games, based on winning plays, (Dino won 39.8%), The other team has achieved their goals on 10 more plays than we have, 5.0 per game.

 

[upperdeck]

Interesting in that we had 3 score leads in both games well into the 2nd half and this is pointing to not really controlling either game.

 

[Libero2]

Interesting in that we had 3 score leads in both games well into the 2nd half and this is pointing to not really controlling either game.

Either that or it is indicating that late in the game we are conceding the individual play battle because of outside reasons. In GTs drive before the inside kick, our goal was to make them take a ton of time to score, but in doing so we were conceding plays that earlier in the game we were not comfortable giving up.

I’ll be curious to see if that trend continues though, because you are right it is interesting for sure.

 

[upperdeck]

Yup.
Game 1 we had control played a ton of subs and gave up about 200 yds
Game 2 we had the big lead and for sure we have up the drive, the onside and the 2nd drive in about 5 min for about 1/3 of their yds.

Not great for stats either game, but better to happen with 3 score leads.

 

[SWC75]

Yup.
Game 1 we had control played a ton of subs and gave up about 200 yds
Game 2 we had the big lead and for sure we have up the drive, the onside and the 2nd drive in about 5 min for about 1/3 of their yds.

Not great for stats either game, but better to happen with 3 score leads.

Let's just not get into the habit of giving up 4th quarter scores.

 

[TampaLaker]

Interesting in that we had 3 score leads in both games well into the 2nd half and this is pointing to not really controlling either game.

The issue in GT game was really the huge failure on the onsides. If that had been recovered, we would have made every effort to add points while running down the clock. Based on earlier results, it seems reasonable that we would have added at least a field goal wit a drive starting at the 45. Then a full kickoff and GT would have been starting at their 25. Would have been interesting to see how each team played under that condition.
But either way it seems there would have been a larger differential in the score and much more pressure on GT.