Winning Plays- Liberty

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)


When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: L25, L22, L22, SU46 (lost onside kick)
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 1
P: 52 to L8, 36 to L12, 52 (recovered Fumble), 49 to L6, 41 to L7, 49 to L8
Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 0
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 Liberty 1

1r: 6, 5, -3, 7, 2, 1, 1, 20, 4, -5, 11, 6, 1
Total: Syracuse 7 Liberty 6
1p: 13(5), I, 17TD, I, I, 12, I, I, I, I, 9, 9, 21TD, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Liberty 14
2r: 3(4), 11, 4(1), 8, 4, 1, 6(1), 4(1), 7(1)
Total: Syracuse 8 Liberty 1
2p: 13(23), I , 32(8), I, I, I, 12TD, 6(5), I, -4, I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Liberty 9
3r: 9(6)
Total: Syracuse 1 Liberty 0
3p: I, 8, 8(3), -16s, I, 18(19), -6s, 17(4), 0, I, Interception, -2s, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 10
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 10
4r: 0
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 1
4p: 7(2), 4(2), I
Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 Liberty 8
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 15 Liberty 27
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 31 Liberty 35

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -10, +15 Syracuse 1 Liberty 3

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 44 Liberty 39


When LIBERTY had the ball:

KO: SU 31, SU 19, SU 16, 50, SU 25, SU 31, SU 34
Total: Syracuse 4 Liberty 3
P: 46 to SU 39, 33 to L36, 32 to L45, 40 to SU 35
Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 2
FG: Good from 20
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 Liberty 11

1r: 3, 5, 22, 4TD, 1, 17, 9, 14, 11, 1, 5, 24, 5, 2, -2, 1, 8, -2, 10, 2, 5, -2v
Total: Syracuse 8 Liberty 14
1p: 7, I, 15, 10, 9, 7, I, 36TD, 9, 1
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 11 Liberty 21
2r: 0, 75TD, 8(7), 4(1), 52TD, 8(3), 3, 17p(9), 3(5), 3(5), 16TD, 1(2), 5(8), 1(5), -2v
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 12
2p: 4(5), 4s(9), 4(8), 8(12), 16(9), -5s, 28(12)
Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 17
3r: 4(1), FUMBLE, 2(1), 1(3), 3(4), -1v
Total: Syracuse 3 Liberty 3
3p: I, -7s, 7(8), I, 11(4), 10(14)
Total: Syracuse 5 Liberty 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Liberty 4
4r: 4(1), 5(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Liberty 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Liberty 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 Liberty 29
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 10 Liberty 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 26 Liberty 42

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5 Syracuse 1 Liberty 1

Game total when LIBERTY had the ball: Syracuse 33 Liberty 54

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 77 Liberty 93


Comments: Our offense wasn’t terrible, the leading deficiency being second and third down passes. We ran the ball well, 9agaisnt a team that ran it spectacularly). Our kicking game was tremendous. The only time we kicked the ball and the result wasn’t to our advantage was the onsides kick. Our return game was good, except for the two holding penalties.

We had a good third down defense, (8-4), but were dominated on 1st and 2ed downs, (16-38). But what really killed us was the big plays – a 75 yard run, a 52 yard run, a 36 yard pass, a 16 yard run.

Our average starting position in 13 possessions was our 35, with a total of 840 yards to go. Liberty’s was their 22 (also 13 possessions) with 1,020 yards to go. that’s a hidden offense of 180 yards for SU – that didn’t matter.

So this game was SU 77, Liberty 93 = -16 in plays ‘won’. We’ve had a lot of games like that in the Babers Era:
2016: Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 We lost 33-50
2017: Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 =-19 We lost 25-33
2017: Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 We lost 24-27
2018: Syracuse 86 Clemson 102 = -16 We lost 23-27
2018: Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 We lost 3-36
2019: Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19 We lost 17-35
2019: Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 We lost 34-56
The issue is: does Liberty belong on that list of opposition?

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 1-1, 1-1, 7-0, 6-0, 3-1 = 18-3
P: 5-4, 4-2, 6-2, 4-3, 6-0 = 25-11
FG: 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-0 = 8-2
XP: 0-0, 1-0, 4-1, 3-0, 0-0 = 8-1
Kicking plays total: 8-6, 7-3, 18-4, 14-3, 12-1 =59-17

1r: 4-10, 5-7, 6-9, 4-3, 7-6 = 26-35
1p: 6-10, 2-6, 7-4, 5-10, 6-8 = 26-38
First Down Total: 10-20, 7-13, 13-13, 9-13, 13-14 = 52-73
2r: 3-5, 8-5, 4-8, 1-3, 8-1 = 24-22
2p: 5-11, 0-7, 2-6, 6-7, 4-8 = 17-39
Second Down Total: 8-16, 8-12, 6-14, 7-10, 12-9 = 41-61
3r: 2-3, 0-4, 3-3, 1-2, 1-0 = 7-12
3p: 2-11, 2-8, 2-8, 1-7, 3-10 = 10-44
Third Down Total: 4-14, 2-12, 5-11, 2-9, 4-10 = 17-56
4r: 0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1 = 1-5
4p: 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 2-1 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-2 = 3-7

Total on running plays: 9-19, 13-16, 14-22, 6-9, 16-8 = 58-74
Total on passing plays: 13-32, 4-22, 11-18, 12-24, 15-27 = 55-123
Total on plays from scrimmage: 22-51, 17-38, 25-40, 18-33, 31-35 = 113-197

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-3, 2-1, 2-3, 0-3, 1-3 = 7-13

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 32-60, 26-42, 45-47, 32-39, 44-39 = 179-227


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-5, 0-4, 4-0, 1-7, 4-3 = 9-19
P: 0-4, 3-1, 1-6, 0-1, 2-2 = 6-14
FG: 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 0-3, 0-5 = 4-9
XP: 0-4, 0-3, 1-2, 0-4, 0-1 = 1-14
Kicking plays total: 1-14, 5-8, 7-8, 1-15, 6-11 = 20-56

1r: 8-11, 10-11, 13-15, 19-15, 8-14 = 58-66
1p: 4-13, 9-4, 6-6, 8-9, 3-7 = 30-39
First Down Total: 12-24, 19-15, 19-21, 27-24, 11-21 = 88-105
2r: 8-3, 6-8, 5-11, 8-15, 3-12 = 30-49
2p: 8-3, 8-6, 6-6, 5-7, 2-5 = 29-27
Second Down Total: 16-6, 14-14, 11-17, 13-22, 5-17 = 59-76
3r: 2-1, 2-3, 3-5, 1-5, 3-3 = 11-17
3p: 5-4, 8-3, 9-0, 4-6, 5-1 = 31-14
Third Down Total: 7-5, 10-6, 12-5, 5-11, 8-4 = 42-31
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-0 = 2-1
4p: 0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 = 2-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-0 = 4-4

Total on running plays: 18-15, 18-22, 21-32, 28-35, 16-29 = 101-133
Total on passing plays: 17-21, 25-14, 22-13, 18-22, 10-13 = 92-83
Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-36, 43-36, 43-45, 46-57, 26-42 = 193-216

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-4, 5-8, 13-2, 0-3, 1-1 = 21-18

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 37-54, 52-47, 63-55, 47-75, 33-54 = 232-285

Overall game total: 69-114, 78-89, 108-102, 79-104, 77-93 = 411-502

Comments: We have been awful on third and fourth downs on offense, (17-56). In 2018 we were 100-130. We went from 12-3 on penalties when Georgia Tech had the ball to 0-3 vs. Duke.

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 69 North Carolina 114 = -45
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 104 = -25
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
TOTAL: Syracuse 411 Opponents 502 = -91 We’ve ‘won’ 1 of 5 games

Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 5,235 plays, (49.2%) and 22 games, (40.75%). The opposition has won 5,405 plays and 32 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 170 more plays than we have in 54 games, an average of 3.1 plays a game.